Going into Election Day, we see a 20-35 seat gain for Democrats in the House, a four to six seat gain for Democrats in the Senate and a six to eight seat gain for Democrats in the governor's races.
All Monday there was considerable talk that the national picture had suddenly changed and that there was a significant tightening in the election. This was based in part on two national polls that showed the generic congressional ballot test having tightened to four (Pew) and six (ABC/Wash Post) points.
Seven national polls have been conducted since Wednesday, November 1. They give Democrats an average lead of 11.6 percentage points, larger than any party has had going into an Election Day in memory. Even if you knock five points off of it, it's 6.6 percentage points, bigger than the advantage that Republicans had going into 1994.
Furthermore, there is no evidence of a trend in the generic ballot test. In chronological order of interviewing (using the midpoint of field dates), the margins were: 15 points (Time 11/1-3), 6 points (ABC/Wash Post), 4 points (Pew), 7 points (Gallup), 16 points (Newsweek), 20 points (CNN) and 13 points (Fox).
I am so afraid to get my hopes up that I have literally been acting timid. I am never timid.
Articles like this lift the weight off of my shoulders a little. I am terrified that the Republicans will figure out some way to steal this election out from under us again. If they do, I fear they will drive a nail into the heart of our democracy. We may see riots in the streets and anarchy may reign in the absence of an ordered election with reliable results.
If I were to get a moment of Karl Rove's time I would tell him that he risks destroying the fabric of our democracy for the chance to keep his party in power. No patriot would ever do that. If it happens, and the Republicans allow it, then they should be disolved as a political party and another party of ethics will have to rise to take their place.
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Don't feed the trolls!
It just goes directly to their thighs.