As the US and Iraqi forces clamp down in Baghdad - reducing violence from Shia elements by up to 40 per cent although failing to tackle Sunni bombs - it has seen both factions shift their fight out of the city to other locations.
And as weapons have been confiscated from around Baghdad, it has left some areas - like Ghazaliya, which used to be capable of defending itself from Shia gangs - more vulnerable to attack. So the violence is not eradicated but the balance of power lurches dangerously.
Outside the capital, the problems have become just as complex. In Anbar, the tribal counter-insurgency - backed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki - against jihadist groups who had challenged the power of the sheikhs has spawned a vicious retaliatory war within the Sunni community which last week saw two bombings in Ramadi. In the south, too, where British generals have argued that the presence of UK troops was exacerbating the problem, the prospect of their departure has acted as an accelerator to factional violence.
I know that we are still at the beginning of this new war plan, but I just don't have any confidence that these bozos can change anything significant in Iraq.
The Iraqis have nothing but time and history on their side. No matter how many American lives we sacrifice in Iraq we will never change what the Iraqi's do not want changed. (Yes I said "sacrificed".)
They just don't want our American style democracy. And it cannot be forced on them at gunpoint.
I don't want our American style democracy either. It isn't working well for 90% of us.
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