Monday, February 11, 2008

Why do caucuses seem to favor Obama?

Obama has won every single caucus so far this year with the exception of Nevada. While Hillary seems to do better in actual primaries.

I just heard Bill Clinton say that the reason for this is that Hillary supporters are the people who "actually need a President", and are working class people who may not be able to get the time off from work.

This may be one of the stupidest things I have heard so far in this campaign.

Number one, the caucuses are held in the evening when most people are not working. (Unless Bill would now like to claim that most Hillary supporters work the swing shift.)

Number two, the very idea that Obama and Hillary are courting some totally different demographic is ridiculous.

Now I participated in the caucus here in Anchorage, Alaska. What I found was a chaotic, frustrating, and poorly organized mess. But what I also found is that the majority of the people who showed up were the Obama people.

So if the caucuses really do favor Obama (a fact of which I am not totally convinced), I would say that the main reason would have to do with one simple thing. Enthusiasm.

The caucus process can be intimidating and frustrating, so those who are really inspired and determined will stick it out. While those who are less fired up may simply walk away.

And if my theory is accurate, which goes without question, then Obama will continue to win every single upcoming caucus, and probably a few primaries as well.

2 comments:

  1. Bill doesn't usually mispeak, so I think it was a very carefully crafted stmnt to appeal to "working class people".

    I know Alaska had an evening caucus, but some of them are in the daytime. However, daytime ones are on weekends, which affects fewer "working class people". Nevada's was on a Saturday about noon, but there are others.

    ps, I just got off the phone with Enigma & posted some of her thoughts on her blog. You'll be interested in the Edwards' meeting points.

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  2. Thanks for the update d.k.

    I did not realize that some of the caucuses were on the weekends. But my point is still valid. I think.

    I will head over to see what is happening with Enigma.

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