Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Moqtada al-Sadr to take his Mahdi army and go home. Now can we leave?

Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr plans to announce Friday that he will disarm his Mahdi Army, which was raining mortars on Baghdad's Green Zone as recently as April. Coupled with the near-total defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq, this means the U.S. no longer faces any significant organized military foe in the country. It also marks a major setback for Iran, which had used the Mahdi Army as one of its primary vehicles for extending its influence in Iraq.

This is being reported as a defeat for al-Sadr, but that is just bullshit.

This is a tactical plan by the Shiite cleric to get the Americans out and then start negotiating with the Iraqi government without the U.S. military backing them up.

It is clear that the Iraqis want us out and are removing every excuse that the Bush administration can use to keep troops in the country. Once out the Iraqis will undoubtedly have some internal conflicts to resolve, though it is conceivable that they may be solved without bloodshed. But then again not necessarily.

The funny thing is even if the administration suspects this is all a put on to get them out of Iraq, there is nothing they can do about it. The Iraqis want us out, Americans want us out, and our UN stamp of approval runs out at the beginning to the year. So without an enemy to fight , the military simply cannot stay.

But even though this is clearly a case of the Bush administration being out maneuvered by their own creation, they will spin it as a victory for the our military and George Bush. And hope against hope that they can get John McCain elected so that they can finally start that invasion of Iran.

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