Since the stock market is one of the economic variables the model considers, Mr. Obama’s probability of winning the Electoral College rose with the European news, to 67.8 percent, his highest figure since we began publishing the model this month.
The government also released data on personal income on Friday, another economic indicator the model uses. It rose by 0.2 percent in May, somewhat stronger than in most previous months and slightly beating market expectations. Still, personal income growth has been extremely sluggish for most of Mr. Obama’s term and remains the most pessimistic of the economic indicators the model uses.
The flow of polling has been comparatively strong for Mr. Obama of late, with leads in most battleground states in surveys published this week and national polls moving toward him, though some of this probably reflects statistical noise.
It is too early for polling to predict anything definitive about the election, but if Silver (Who is often referred to as the "Oracle of the 2008 election.") is correct about the "flow of polling," (Which of course he usually is), and the trend continues on until November, this could not just be a victory for the President, this could be a HUGE victory for the President.
And in my opinion that should just happen so that I can watch all of the little Teabagger heads explode in frustrations. (Up here in Alaska that would probably sound like Chinese New Year.)
P.S. It is important to note that this data does NOT reflect the impact of the Supreme Court's decision to uphold the Affordable Care Act, as it was put together before last Thursday.
"And in my opinion that should just happen so that I can watch all of the little Teabagger heads explode in frustrations. (Up here in Alaska that would probably sound like Chinese New Year.)"
ReplyDeletelol!
Good one.
The republic party think we're all as stupid as one Sarah Palin. Have they forgotten that we just elected the first African American president a short 3 1/2 years ago? Gobama 2012, landslide. The more people get to know Rommel, the more he sucks out loud.
ReplyDeleteAnon@4:25... Please look at history a bit closer. Rommel was an honorable warrior, well respected by Patton. Romney is neither a warrior nor honorable in his financial dealings.
Deleteftd
Let's say that Obama is re-elected, but the senate goes Republican majority. How screwed will the people be? Obama won't have a chance of getting any legislation to pass.
ReplyDeleteDemocrat voters need to help elect Democratic candidates in other states- not just in their own- if they want to get the nation back on track and out of the grips of the Republican right wingers.
Please donate to Democratic candidates.
If people care enough to get out to vote for Obama, then his election coattails might be enough to keep the Senate and possible shift seats in the House as well.
DeleteI totally agree with your sentiment about supporting and voting for Democrats on all levels - particularly the federal Senate and House.
We need to compile a list of Democratic Senate seats that are up for re-election this November. It is crucial we keep them in power (though I sort of dread the thought of Blue Dog Dems, to be honest).
In my state, both Republican Senate Seats are not up for grabs in 2012, darn it.
But I believe most if not all House seats are. Sure hope the voters get rid of Tea Baggers.
Unfortunately, most of the GOTP seats have been rigged through restricting to be "safe" for them. That will hold true until the next Census. I think that's why conniving GOTP candidates such as Bachmann was preaching to folks not to respond to the Census, to minimize "unsafe" changes. Suppressing the Census response was somewhat successful for them but not nearly as successful as their Suppress the Vote strategy.
I'd donate, except it's not tax deductible. Way to tempting to donate to charities and actually help people and get a tax write off for doing so. Until political donations are tax deductible I won't engage. Sorry.
DeleteI count political donations as "investments". With out the right legislators/Congress our country won't thrive including charitable organizations that depend on state and federal grants!
DeleteWell, then don't whine when charities are the only way poor people, sick people, students, the elderly, etc. get any help and the only way they get that help is if they subscribe to whatever the charity is representing. I also donate to charity but I would donate even if there were no tax deduction.
Delete"We need to compile a list of Democratic Senate seats that are up for re-election this November. "
DeleteIn reply to Anonymous as=t 5:29PM
We have a list. It is called www.actblue.com
www.actblue.com has every seat in the house and senate listed and categorized by state and district. I think it also has governor candidates. I use it almost every month. I can only afford one(1) dollar per day, so at the end of the month I make a $30-$35 donation. Sometimes I can only afford .50, but still at the end of the month it's a total of $15. Every penny helps.
Like someone else said, it really is an investment for our future.
Actblue does Not take any cut of your donation to your candidate. All of it goes toward getting your candidate, to get him/her elected into office.
My all the Mr. Obama, or Obama? Is it so hard for people to call him President Obama? Geez!
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth -- i think it's a style thing for the NYT.
DeleteI said this on HuffPo and I'll say it again -- I don't see Mittens swaying a lot of independent voters with the argument, "Hey, I'm gonna make you kick your 21-year-old kid off your health care and take away your Medicare, all so I can keep paying a 13 percent tax rate."
DeleteI'd rather be David Plouffe than the generic Republican consultant Romney has working for him.
Demographics that Obama is going to win big:
DeleteYoung voters.
Gay voters.
Black voters.
Hispanic voters.
Asian-American voters.
Voters with advanced degrees.
Labor.
City dwellers.
Women.
I think maybe Obama won't win as much of the popular vote as he did in 2008, but I think that all of the states that Nate has as swing states will go to Obama. I also think Indiana might be in play. I think the difference is that he will lose in states like Texas with HUUUUUGE numbers.
However, I also thought the mandate was going to be overthrown, so what the hey do I know?
Anonymous5:43 PM
DeleteJews also overwhelmingly vote Democratic.
@ 5:43 & 6:39
DeleteJust think of how many more Jewish votes President Obama could get if he'd wear a huge honkin' Star of David.
Oh wait, maybe that's just a sarah thing...
"I've got it! We'll fool them with my ginormous Star of David! They've gotta love me then! Have I won yet?" - sp
We need to get out and vote and support others in doing so too.
ReplyDeletePresident Obama has everything going for him right now in a very positive way. That Romney is a mess and no more has the qualifications to be POTUSA than do I. Plus, he lies horribly!!
We also need to help people register to vote. The GOTP is counting on their Voter Suppression efforts and don't think we can do anything to counter them.
DeleteTime is of the essence. I hope Democratic committees in every state are organizing registration campaigns and getting volunteers to help those who need help in registering. Some may need the assistance of volunteer attorneys as well.
Went to the farmer's market and there was an Obama stand there -- lots of action! Granted, I live in a REALLY liberal area, but...it's the sort of place where everyone is probably already registered to vote. And yet, it looked like it was busy.
DeleteLevi Johnston Refused To Meet With Bristol Palin Because Of Reality Show, Sunny Oglesby Says
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/30/levi-johnston-bristol-palin_n_1640072.html?utm_hp_ref=politics
Levi has a manager? Maybe it was Bristol's manager who gave him the heads up otherwise how would he have know Bristol wanted to argue with him? Veery, veery, interesting...
DeleteHmm, that info was news 5 days ago.
DeleteBristol Palin screws the pooch. Did you see mama grizzly on the Fox Five when she miscalculated her meds? Sarah is in total denial any Palin could FAIL this much. She is really taking her golden childs demise hard. Any day Bristol will be running for office, Wasilla needs a dog catcher. Pronto.
Deletehttp://tinyurl.com/screwd-pooch
Meghan McCain Comes Out In Support Of Legalizing Marijuana
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/13/meghan-mccain-marijuana-legalize-it_n_1593087.html?utm_hp_ref=medical-marijuana
PROSTITUTIONAL NEWS LAS VEGAS -- The fired former chief executive of Las Vegas Sands Corp.'s Macau casinos alleges in court documents revealed Thursday that billionaire Sheldon Adelson personally approved of prostitution and knew of other improper activity at his company's properties in the Chinese enclave.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/29/sheldon-adelson-prostitution_n_1638439.html?utm_hp_ref=politics
Not so fast there, Mister Fancy Pants Alaska Liberal blogger!! So what? A bunch of pointy-headed liberal nerds calculate that Obama is likely to win in November? That means nothing! (I heard a rumor that Silver character is Jewish!)
ReplyDeleteI've done my own calculations according to a top secret proprietary algore rhythm and I've determined that there is just ONE completely ORIGINAL Amercian leader running in this election and that is Millard "Mittens" Rmoney!!! I hope I can count on you and your little librul Bolshevik blog buddies to visit my website and purchase an official "Mittens is a Totally Owsome Original Leader" tshirt with the attractive "Mittens is a TOOL" logo. The site isnt up yet but the address will be www.douchebags4adouchebag.com
You might as well elect Mittens in 2012 because this guy is the Harold Stassen of the 21st Century and plans to run for president every year until the Mormon apocalypse in 2054.
I wonder what kind of 'tool' Mitt is. Sarah called the President a 'tool,' again. Yeah, Sarah, he's a HAMMER. Mitt is an old rusty dull drill bit. And you, Sarah? You are trash....dirt under the President's shows.
DeleteAlGore rhythm!
Delete(that needs to be saved for future use. lol.)
Awww Beldar, you disappoint me!
DeleteWhy just some lousy T-Shirts?
We need some mittens with a catchy slogan, so we can keep our paws warm in January when we line the mall in DC for his inauguration!
Haha, Beldar ~ another masterpiece of analysis that leads me to believe that Mittens is supercalifragilisticexpialidouch-y.
DeleteWow, Nate Silver "The Oracle of the 2008 Election" ? I think that the 2008 election results speak for themselves in that you had a two competent Democrats facing off against a doddering old man with an incompetent running mate. This one one election that didn't require an "oracle" to predict the outcome. Now Nate's skills might come in handy for this next electoral challenge. It's anyone's game at this point. Wonder what Nate is seeing in his crystal ball for November 2012?
ReplyDeleteLooking back, it seems like a no brainer but remembering what it was like this time 4 years ago, we were looking at a doddering old man being trotted out as a war hero and his hand picked for her looks running mate(however incompetent)along with tons of money running against a BLACK man. I know they thought they had it in the bag. At the time, I swore McCain could sacrifice chickens on the altar at the Vatican and Palin could(and would) strip in front of Congress and still win. But Palin went rogue and everyone could really see her for what she was and we ended up with the best President we have had in forever. I really believe that if Palin hadn't been such a narcissist, the election would have turned out differently.
DeleteOh please. Did you somehow miss the 2008 primary season? Did you follow Nate Silver during the entire election campaign, first as poblano on Daily Kos and then on his blog 538? I did.
DeleteSilver consistently outperformed the polls and experts in the state primary contests. In the November election he accurately forecast 49 of 50 states, missing only Indiana, where Obama won by 1%. He also accurately predicted all 35 Senate races.
He did not use a crystal ball. He uses advanced (and proprietary) statistical analysis. I won't summarize his development of PECOTA and his brilliant career at Baseball Prospectus, prior to focusing full time on political analysis.
I notice that Nate and a lot of other media outlets, like HuffPo, are doing the same thing that they did in 2008 -- they're pretending that states where Obama is leading by huge numbers are toss-ups, or possibly in play. Look for PA, MN, MI, and especially WI to be down as "toss-up" states. They're not. He's winning by huge numbers. It's just like in 2008, when the media tried to make it out like PA was a "toss-up" states, when, in actuality, McCain NEVER got within nine points of Obama. The media NEEDED PA to be a "toss-up" because otherwise, it would have been over and no one would have tuned in on Election Night. And they NEED people to tune in on election night.
ReplyDeleteI know it's only June but when Rassmussen, which has a notably republican slant, has Obama winning a state by eight points, Romney ain't winning there....
It's OK...the more they think they have a chance, the fewer millions Adelson shovels over to the Koch Machine. Meanwhile, we are quietly building momentum and are going to rock DC come November...and a bunch of StateHouses as well.
DeleteRegardless of the massive support for President Obama, there is still the issue of voting and counting the votes. The other side is trying very hard to prevent certain demographic groups from voting....most obvious is the recent attack on AG Eric Holder for his actions against restricting voter rights in Florida. And then there is still the issue of the wonderful and marvelous electronic voting machines that can be programed to count votes anyway the programer wants. Everyone should vote a paper ballot and figure out a way that those paper ballots are hand counted. What does your state law allow or require? Figure it out now because this is how they will try to win....cheat and lie.
ReplyDeleteI just feel the more America sees Mitt Romney vilify a piece of legislation that he was the grandfather of, the more turned off they are with him. No one likes to witness someone selling themselves down the river.
ReplyDeleteSo by all means, GOP...please do make the Affordable Care Act the centerpiece of your election strategy.
People CAN make sure they are registered and ready to vote. That is a personal a responsibility. A large Dem turnout will help prevent an election theft. Stop predicting doom and GET BUSY.
ReplyDelete"HUGE" victory for the President" would be a dream come true for me, but I am afraid to take anything for granted because of the time-tested success of big money and dirty tricks.
ReplyDeleteIn 95% of elections, the better-funded candidate wins. Thanks a lot, Citizens United.
Dirty tricks: Time to reveal the Palin Baby Hoax so all voters can see the REAL family values of the GOP VIPs. To make us all more vigilant for this year's so very important election.
I agree. It is important to out Palin and her Baby Hoax prior to the election to highlight the honesty of the republic party (following Palin's lead on Democrat(ic) party).
DeleteBut that 95% figure is based on a pre-citizen united world when donors were limited. Generally, the more DONORS you have the better. Romney had few donors and a lot of his peeps are maxed out.
DeleteSeveral hours ago, I got an email from Nancy Pelosi saying the Democrats were only 317 people short of the most donors in a single day. I bet they'll make it by midnight.
ReplyDeleteDonate. Vote.
ReplyDeletePlease make this be true... please, please, please!
ReplyDeleteDon't become complacent - GET OUT AND VOTE in November.
ReplyDeleteOne word : DIEBOLD!!!!!
ReplyDelete