Since the stock market is one of the economic variables the model considers, Mr. Obama’s probability of winning the Electoral College rose with the European news, to 67.8 percent, his highest figure since we began publishing the model this month.
The government also released data on personal income on Friday, another economic indicator the model uses. It rose by 0.2 percent in May, somewhat stronger than in most previous months and slightly beating market expectations. Still, personal income growth has been extremely sluggish for most of Mr. Obama’s term and remains the most pessimistic of the economic indicators the model uses.
The flow of polling has been comparatively strong for Mr. Obama of late, with leads in most battleground states in surveys published this week and national polls moving toward him, though some of this probably reflects statistical noise.
It is too early for polling to predict anything definitive about the election, but if Silver (Who is often referred to as the "Oracle of the 2008 election.") is correct about the "flow of polling," (Which of course he usually is), and the trend continues on until November, this could not just be a victory for the President, this could be a HUGE victory for the President.
And in my opinion that should just happen so that I can watch all of the little Teabagger heads explode in frustrations. (Up here in Alaska that would probably sound like Chinese New Year.)
P.S. It is important to note that this data does NOT reflect the impact of the Supreme Court's decision to uphold the Affordable Care Act, as it was put together before last Thursday.