Barack Obama’s standing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast reached its strongest position to date on Tuesday as a result of favorable polls in a set of swing states. The forecast model now gives Mr. Obama a 70.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 69.0 percent on Monday and from 65.0 percent last Tuesday.
Three of the polls were conducted by Quinnipiac University in conjunction with The New York Times and CBS News. The polls gave Mr. Obama leads of 6 points in each of Ohio and Florida, and an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania.
In each state, the polls are at the high end of the range of numbers produced by other polling firms. As we frequently advise, no one set of polls — no matter how reputable the pollster — should be read as gospel. Differences in the numbers from survey firm to survey firm often reflect sampling error or methodological differences rather than any fundamental change in the condition of the race.
Now remember this is Nate Silver, the guru of election predictions, if he thinks that Obama is pulling significantly ahead of Romney, and that his chances for winning are promising, then you can take THAT to the bank.
Now all we have to do is keep the GOP from using Diebold machines, the Right Wing SuperPACs, or the fucking Supreme Court from stealing this election, and we should be home free.
Let me tell you right now, if Romney wins this election, we will know with absolute certainty that it was stolen. And THIS time we will NOT sit quietly by and let it happen!
Damn straight! With more and more states supporting amendments to overturn citizen's united, I hope they know it too.
ReplyDeleteT
Amen Grtph! There is no way we are letting Norquist, the Kochs, Adelson and the rest of the robber baron class turn this nation into their personal playground. The more I hear from Romney, the creepier he is. And when he names his VP, we will know what we're really up against. I am still anxious for the debates...please let us have moderators who won;t put up with the nonsense the GOP got away with in 2008. Rachel Rachel Rachel!
ReplyDeletePS -- I'm pretty sure this poll was taking BEFORE RomneyShambles. I think that's what I read!
ReplyDeleteIf Willard somehow steals the election and is inaugurated in January 2013, me and my girlfriend will start plans to move out of the country. No joke. Sorry America.
ReplyDeleteDon't be negative. If you get the vote out, he can't steal. Large Dem turnouts prevents the Repubs from stealing.
DeleteGore won a majority of the votes in 2000 I believe but Bush stole the election, and then the GOP stole it again four years later. Dirty tricks, and I don't trust them one iota to not steal another election. Voter ID laws? Faulty diebold machines? Florida and Ohio election fraud? Makes Tricky Dicky look like a Boy Scout.
DeleteOnly a close election can be stolen. Our outrage, energy, time and money is more productively channeled to GOTV and donating. If WE all vote, THEY are neutralized.
DeleteAfter the debates, the President's lead in the polls against Romney will jump even higher. Mitt's refusal to release his tax returns will be his downfall.
ReplyDeleteStealing the election? The GOP can try, but it won't be that easy this time around. More than a decade has passed since Bush v Gore, and what did that bring us?
Dubya, Cheney, and two wars. Those were eight very long years.
If they thought Al Gore was wooden, even John Kerry to an extent, can't wait to see how Mitt comes off against Obama.
ReplyDeleteEven if Mitt was personable, he doesn't stand a chance in a debate against Barack. I can't wait to see this match-up.
I totally agree - things will be a mess if Romney pulls this out due to all the voter stoppage the Republican Legislatures are putting in place across the nation.
ReplyDeleteIt won't be the same as Bush/Gore this go around. Cannot imagine what will occur, but the majority will not be duped another time!
I assuredly know one thing and that is that Mittens gives me the total creeps! He's changing his delivery in giving speeches - trying to be more foreceful now! He has to release his tax returns. It is not up to Reid to disclose his source..it's up to Romney to meet the challenge and prove him wrong! Reid isn't one that talks out of turn - look at his history! I believe Reid and his source!!!!
Get everyone you know out to vote and move the Republicans out of office on the national, state and local levels. It is so damned necessary!
Your last two paragraphs are right on point. Don't expect anything but dirty tricks and cheating from the GOP. I have said from the beginning they didn't really care who their candidate was because no one legitimately stood a chance against Obama. But they don't plan to win because of their candidate. They plan to win DESPITE their candidate.
ReplyDeleteI am afraid that you are correct. I am very worried.
DeleteGryphen, I wanted to update you and all your librul Bolshevik blog buddies about something exciting that's happened since I officially endorsed Milliard Willard Mittens "Mitt" Rmoney for president in 2012.
ReplyDeleteI just completed my second interview to work at the Rmoney Center For Media Research in Provo, Utah aka Gaffe Central. This is where all the gaffes of candidate, and hopefully President, Rmoney will be reported, cataloged, studied, managed, reimagined and ultimately denied.
Wow! What an amazing facility. It's a 2000 acre complex with half a million square feet of office space, eight cafeterias and dining rooms, 2 fitness centers with olympic size pools (U! S! A! WE'RE NUMBER ONE!), 4 full size TV and audio production facilities, hundreds of T1 internet connections and hardened wi-fi. Everything state of the art!
In aerial photos the two main buildings do look like the letters C and F leading some mean people to call the site "Cluster F*ck", but I, for one, plan to ignore them and I hope you will, too.
There's also a beautiful open-air 'Inspiration Garden" within the courtyard of the C building with benches and a walking path. Along the path are mailbox-sized granite stones with bronze plaques featuring the candidate's most memorable gaffes. And they're adding tons of new stones every day! It looked like a goddamn rock quarry!!
If I get the job, I'll just be an entry level 'gaffe wrangler', but there are lots of amazing career opportunities here. Social media, database admins, international gaffes, legal gaffes, political gaffes, religious gaffes are just a few of the departments ramping up to deal with Rmoney's astonishing output. There's even a Black Ops group whose main function is simply to take Rmoney's gaffes and seamlessly CGI them to appear as if it's Obama talking instead of Rmoney. How awesome is that!
Hard to believe 2 months ago they had only 200 employees and now there are over 4000. If Rmoney wins the election, they'll need over 22,000 local staff, about 6,000 in D.C. and another 11,000 deployed worldwide. I really wanted to join the elite Public Blunder Rapid Deployment Force that will travel with the candidate, but I left my magic underwear at home, if you catch my meaning....
I hope to hear soon if I got the job. I'm already practicing by watching the news and writing down Rmoney's gaffes as they occur. Talk about carpal tunnel syndrome!
I know you're supporting that Obama fella, Gryphen, who actually seems like a decent enough guy that just doesnt understand Amercia. But try to be a little happy for me and for the nation. Let's face it, if Mittens actually wins the election, a good gaffe management support system could literally prevent wars and save millions of lives. It's truly Zeus' work....
And that is why I'm endorsing Milliard Willard Mittens "Mitt" Rmoney for president in 2012.
I'm a conservative Republican and I support President Obama. We do exist.
ReplyDelete...I completely support Obamacare and the healthcare reform that comes along with it. There are parts I disagree with, but I think it is a great step in the right direction. I have watched many programs on television featuring Obama (shows in the military channel and discovery channel), and I think he is a great person in general, and is doing his best for this country. He's a good president, and strives to make America better as a whole, rather than just focusing on one political party. He risked his presidency with the assault on Bin Laden, and he knew that beforehand. I'm not here to discuss the assault itself and the political can of worms that comes along with it, but am here to present Mr. Obama's willingness to risk his presidency to do what he thought was best. This speaks volumes of his character. I fully support him in this next election, and would love to have dinner or a drink with him. He has my utmost respect.
Mittens, on the other hand, has no idea what he is doing, and is running for president simply because he can. He thrives off of the sense of power it gives him, and uses his vast amount of wealth as a financial and life cushion. This essentially allows him to attempt to do whatever the heck he wants to do, including running for president, and the views and thoughts that accompany that. He wants the prestige, recognition, and power that being president would bring to him, and yet he is too much of a slime ball to be anything but bad for this country. He is not president material, because I believe that his heart, mind, and wallet are too tainted and stuffed to serve the American people. He would not view the Presidency as a service, he would view it as power. Obama, on the other hand, is actively doing everything he can to serve the American people.
http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/xmb71/im_a_conservative_republican_and_i_support/
I'm wondering why Willard won't lend money to his own campaign, like he did in '08.
ReplyDeleteWell, he has shown he knows a losing proposition when he sees one.
Only this one he and his vultures can not make millions on.
Willard will never be the man his father was: A credible candidate for president.
There is no way Romney can win, unless there is some serious illegality going on somewhere. Everyone must stay vigilant because the opposition is going to try everything they can to steal this one.
ReplyDeleteM from MD