Five Thirty Eight:
Barack Obama’s standing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast reached its strongest position to date on Tuesday as a result of favorable polls in a set of swing states. The forecast model now gives Mr. Obama a 70.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 69.0 percent on Monday and from 65.0 percent last Tuesday.
Three of the polls were conducted by Quinnipiac University in conjunction with The New York Times and CBS News. The polls gave Mr. Obama leads of 6 points in each of Ohio and Florida, and an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania.
In each state, the polls are at the high end of the range of numbers produced by other polling firms. As we frequently advise, no one set of polls — no matter how reputable the pollster — should be read as gospel. Differences in the numbers from survey firm to survey firm often reflect sampling error or methodological differences rather than any fundamental change in the condition of the race.
Now remember this is Nate Silver, the guru of election predictions, if he thinks that Obama is pulling significantly ahead of Romney, and that his chances for winning are promising, then you can take THAT to the bank.
Now all we have to do is keep the GOP from using Diebold machines, the Right Wing SuperPACs, or the fucking Supreme Court from stealing this election, and we should be home free.
Let me tell you right now, if Romney wins this election, we will know with absolute certainty that it was stolen. And THIS time we will NOT sit quietly by and let it happen!