Poll numbers plunge for Senators who voted against background checks.

Courtesy of Public Policy Polling:

New PPP polls in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Ohio find serious backlash against the 5 Senators who voted against background checks in those states. Each of them has seen their approval numbers decline, and voters say they're less likely to support them the next time they're up for reelection. That's no surprise given that we continue to find overwhelming, bipartisan support for background checks in these states.

The article then lists all of the above states and impact on each Senator's poll numbers from that background check vote. However I would like to focus on Alaska.

When we polled Alaska in February Lisa Murkowski was one of the most popular Senators in the country with a 54% approval rating and only 33% of voters disapproving of her. She's seen a precipitous decline in the wake of her background checks vote though. Her approval is down a net 16 points from that +21 standing to +5 with 46% of voters approving and 41% now disapproving of her. Murkowski has lost most of her appeal to Democrats in the wake of her vote, with her numbers with them going from 59/25 to 44/44. And the vote hasn't increased her credibility with Republican either- she was at 51/38 with them in February and she's at 50/39 now. 

Mark Begich is down following his no vote as well. He was at 49/39 in February and now he's at 41/37. His popularity has declined with Democrats (from 76/17 to 59/24) and with independents (from 54/32 to 43/35), and there has been no corresponding improvement with Republicans. He had a 24% approval rating with them two months ago and he has a 24% approval rating with them now. 

60% of Alaska voters support background checks to just 35% opposed, including a 62/33 spread with independents. 39% of voters say they're less likely to vote for each of Begich and Murkowski in their next elections based on this vote, while only 22% and 26% say they're more likely to vote for Begich and Murkowski respectively because of this.

I have already expressed my deep disappointment with Mark Begich over his vote, but until now I had not considered how that vote might affect Murkowski, who I have long felt was one of the safest Senators in the country.

To be honest I had thought that her vote in deeply red, gun loving Alaska would have relatively little impact.

It is interesting to find that I was wrong about that, and that, if this poll is correct, the country's shift on guns has been MUCH more profound than even I had once believed.

In fact this vote may be the one thing that puts Murkowski's inevitable reelection in jeopardy.

P.S. In the interest of full disclosure I must confess that I was actually part of this poll, and definitely one that voiced my outrage at both Mark and Lisa's vote.