Democrats aren't taking Nate Silver's latest Senate prediction lying down.
In an unusual step, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday issued a rebuttal the famed statistician's prediction—made a day earlier—that Republicans were a "slight favorite" to retake the Senate. Silver was wrong in 2012, the political committee's Guy Cecil wrote in a memo, and he'll be wrong again in 2014.
"In fact, in August of 2012 Silver forecast a 61 percent likelihood that Republicans would pick up enough seats to claim the majority," Cecil said. "Three months later, Democrats went on to win 55 seats."
The DSCC memo took pains to compliment Silver, saying his work at newly launched FiveThirtyEight was "groundbreaking." And the group's main critique—that Silver's model relies on a smattering of haphazard early polling in battleground states—is one that he himself acknowledges is a limitation.
But the comprehensive pushback from Cecil, the powerful committee's key staffer, is a testament both to the influence Silver wields and the sensitivity of Senate Democrats to the perception they're losing their grip on the upper chamber. Other outlets have suggested similar odds on the Senate, but none have earned this kind of rebuttal.
You know I have to say I am gratified to see the Democrats getting angry and pushing back against this perception that they are not motivated to turn out in 2014.
That is exactly the kind of defiance that we need to hang onto our seats, and perhaps even gain a few more.
There are some who have suggested that this is just a case of reverse psychology by Silver in order to energize the Democratic base, but I disagree with that.
I don't know if Nate Silver is a religious man or not, but if he is I would bet that he prays to the gods of math, data crunching, and logic.
He is not somebody who would fudge numbers in order to make a point, he has too much respect for them to do that.
So I believe that he believes his calculations are correct.
The only question remaining is are the progressives out there willing to see a replay of 2010, or are they ready to make people like Sarah Palin, Sean Hannity, and now Nate Silver eat crow?
I know my answer.
It's a lot harder to predict senate/house races than presidential.
ReplyDeleteI also think Nate is wrong! We need to get out the vote - counter the money that will be put up against the Dems and Independents and pure and simply cook their gooses!
ReplyDeleteDown w/the Republicans! It's way past time to make changes as to who controls Americans!
I've never donated to a campaign, and never will, I vote. Voting is a lot more important than throwing money behind someone. Smart and informed people already know where they stand ideologically and who they will vote for without a bunch of money being wasted. That's why the right has to spend so much money telling the STUPIDS how to vote. We Progressives Pay Attention, We Know how to vote and WHO to vote for without having to spend a time promoting a candidate.
DeleteStarting now, the DNC HAS to make plans to spend some significant money on Senate AND House races or we will simply hand over all control to the Republican Party in the 2014 election cycle and that scenario is terrifying!
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ReplyDeleteA top Democratic pollster warned that Democrats have a big turnout disadvantage in the midterm elections.
"There is a huge turnout disadvantage and challenge," Democratic pollster Celina Lake said at a Christian Science Monitor breakfast on Tuesday according to CNN. "There is always a challenge in turnout in an off year, but it's really dramatic this time."
Lake, along with Republican Pollster Ed Goeas also revealed the findings of a new George Washington University poll which found that 64 percent of Republican voters say they are "extremely likely" to vote in the 2014 midterm elections in November while 57 percent of Democrats say they are "extremely likely" to vote in the same elections.
Lake cited the recent result of the Florida 13th special election, where Republican David Jolly defeated Democrat Alex Sink as an example of the turnout problems facing Democrats.
"I think we saw it play out in the Florida special," Lake added. The GOP turnout efforts in that race, Lake said, were "darn effective."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/celinda-lake-midterm-elections
"There is always a challenge in turnout in an off year, but it's really dramatic this time."
DeleteExplain to me how there IS a REALLY dramatic challenge in turnout THIS year when the election has NOT yet occurred?
Apparently, the challenge is dramatic, not the turnout. There's research cited in the article from a GW poll that shows the likelihood of voting for each party. The quote is included in the comment you replied to.
Deletea little rant
ReplyDeletehttp://theobamadiary.com/2014/03/25/wherein-i-go-on-a-little-rant/#more-162593
There seems to be a bit of a fair-weather friend mentality where Nate Silver is concerned. When he predicted Obama's win over Romney, I watched election night returns confident that he was right. The right wing excoriated him for his prediction and attacked him personally.
ReplyDeleteNow Democrats say they want him to "eat crow?" Well, I hope he's wrong, but his track record should be seen as a call to arms rather than a reason to be angry. It seems that this "kill the messenger" mentality is as bad on our side as it is on there.
Rather than get angry, we need to take this as a warning and prepare to get as many progressives to the poll as we can. It's going to be a close race this year, and every vote counts.
I am in agreement with you for the most part. I also do not refute Nate's math.
DeleteHowever I would suggest that we can get both angry AND get motivated to turn this around.
Nate's numbers are only as good as their ability to predict how energized the two sides are in this next election.
We already know that the conservatives are energized, but they are also fighting amongst themselves. The Democrats are more unified and if they get motivated this could be an historic election for us.
I don't know, Gryph, it seems like the Democrats are pretty silent. They should be refuting all the hogwash with facts each and every time. The media sure isn't.
DeleteI wonder if Silver is using historical Democratic turnout, or lack thereof, as part of his analysis.
DeleteWhile it's true that Dems tend to stay home on off years, it's also true that the GOP has done everything humanly possibly to piss off large swaths of the electorate. Those who traditionally vote for Democratic candidates, as well as those who vote independently and even moderate Republicans, are beginning to show their anger at what the GOP and their corporate overlords are trying to do to our country. Anyone who works for a government agency, belongs to a union, or receives any kind of government assistance of any kind, is being insulted, threatened and generally maligned as scum of the earth by Republican lawmakers. Critical programs like Veterans benefits, Medicaid, SNAP, and unemployment are being decimated. Perhaps more importantly, Social Security and Medicare are being threatened, and the retired population is far more inclined to have the time, opportunity and willingness to get to the polls than the working poor.
The GOP will always have their base of poor, uneducated, easily manipulated, religious white voters who would vote for the Republican even if that candidate promised to steal the last can of pork and beans from their kitchen cabinet. However, the GOP is working overtime to alienate everyone else. What Nate Silver may not have counted on, and what I sincerely hope will happen, is the anger of the oppressed poor and middle class building to the point that even those who would ordinarily sit out these midterm elections will swarm to the polls and vote out these corporate stooges who are working ONLY for the benefit of the 1%.
Perhaps I am being overly optimistic (and it wouldn't be the first time!), but I hope that the electorate has finally had enough and will produce a turnout of historic proportions and will blow Nate Silver's predictions out of the water!
Just like Karl Rove wouldn't believe that the GOP had lost Ohio in 2012? We need to be careful and vet ourselves and watch our words or we are no better than Karl Rove and Dick Morris were during the 2012 POTUS results. If this is the message Progressives need in order to actually show up for midterms in numbers favorable to our cause, then YES let's do it, but if we don't 2014 might not end up as we wish. Nate doesn't just make things up....
ReplyDeleteNate gave us a warning of what will happen if we don't act. I appreciate that.
ReplyDeleteMust say though that I'm really puzzled by his choices of editors for his web site. A climate-change denying scientist, for one.
Rats.
Nate Silver has a great track record predicting election results. Let's hope the Dems get their ground game on and get the voters out who always sit out the mid-terms. We need Presidential election size crowds to turn out in 2014.
ReplyDeleteIf you read his prediction, it says the Republicans have a slight chance to take the Senate. If you read the media's headlines, they say "GOP Set for a Big Win."
ReplyDeleteo/t but good! from 2006
ReplyDeleteSecession from the Union? Another dream dashed by The Court
By Thomas Van Flein
"Back to reality. There is no way in this day and age a state supreme court would test the waters of secession by giving even the impression such a process could be lawful. If nothing else, for most Alaskans I think, the Federal Government is not making life so unbearable or "tyrannical" that fighting this battle seems warranted. Unless you think palatial airports and long span bridges are "tyrannical" it seems that a lot of Alaskans like the Federal government. For now. Just keep the money coming."
I think of this as a "Good Thing". Democrats are notorious for sitting out off year elections, maybe this will put a fire under their butts to GOTV. We have a lot of one issue uber left folks who stomp their feet because POTUS didn't address their favorite issue. We need to get as many people out as possible, especially the younger people.The President has done the best he can and got some great things passed that help people. Hopefully, they'll see the benefits the ACA has brought and realize the importance of their one vote.
ReplyDeleteSee I am not the only one who sees the GOP taking over and finishing us. This is alarming and does not make sense to someone who thinks that people count. The GOP only acknowledges that people live in this county when they need a vote. The rest of the time they are fleecing us.
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