 |
| Okay hang on, don't get cocky. |
An Anchorage polling firm is giving Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) an unexpectedly huge lead in his re-election bid less than two weeks before Election Day and with early voting underway.
Hellenthal and Associates shows Begich up 10 points over Republican challenger Dan Sullivan, 49 percent to 39 percent. It is by far the biggest lead that Begich has seen and runs counter to most public polling, which has shown Sullivan with a consistent advantage since mid-September.
Another poll released Friday and sponsored by Democratic PAC's supporting Begich showed the race tied at 44 percent.
The Hellenthal and Associates poll, conducted Oct 15 to 21, surveyed 403 likely voters. Its margin of error is 4.9 points.
I am having a hard time trusting the polls right now. Partly because I have stopped participating in them, and I know I am not alone.
It is no exaggeration to say that I get between four and five phone calls a day asking that I participate in a poll, or giving me unsolicited information on the candidates or issues.
I have also had at least five visits from the unions asking me if I am going to support Begich. Which I point out they should already know as illustrated by the fact that I have a Mark Begich sign on my front lawn.
However I will tell you something that I firmy feel to be true and that is that the glut of anti-Begich ads that pop up EVERY SINGLE time that you try to watch a YouTube or Hulu video is turning people against Dan Sullivan in a big way.
The overkill is absolutely incredible, and there is no escaping it since trying to watch television or listen to the radio also exposes you to yet another series of never ending attacks on Mark Begich, many of them filled with completely false statements that many Alaskans know are bullshit.
And not just in Alaska. If this formula works here, these billionaires have no reason to think it will not work EVERYWHERE.
Dan Sullivan is a Republican 'plant' in this race against Senator Begich who was born and raised in Alaska.
ReplyDeleteThe constant negative ads against our senator are being done excessively are backfiring on the carpetbagger.
I have early voted for Senator Begich and am proud to have done so.
Once Sullivan loses this race I'll wager he does not give a concession speech and heads back to the area of Washington D.C. (his home) never to be seen in Alaska again! Even his 'native' rooted wife, which she declared herself to make him appear 'more' Alaskan, was a huge failure!
Plus, the money that came into his campaign from 'outside' was not appreciated or recognized by Alaskans. The Koch brothers, his going back to Ohio to fund raise as well as his rich parents providing a substantial amount of funds from their location outside of the State of Alaska.
Few Alaskan provided money to Sullivan where Senator Begich received a substantial amount and by many Alaskans.
Sullivan - you ran a horrible campaign and know nothing about Alaskans!
Congressman Begich's boy, who had to grow up without a father .... against Millionaire Mommy's little POTUS-in-waiting.
DeleteAs much as I want to believe this poll it is an outlier.
ReplyDeleteO/T Right wing extremism at it's finest - in Dallas, where else?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wfaa.com/story/news/crime/2014/10/25/anti-gay-assault-caught-on-camera-at-dfw-airport/17906829/
Why did you post this off-topic waste of a click?
DeleteAt least tell us what it's about so we don't waste our time.
Thank you.
Mona1:40 PM
DeleteI did say it was O/T. As for wasting time, isn't that the point of being here?
Mona1:40 PM
DeleteThe subject is in the title
I quit answering the phone several weeks ago to avoid polls also. My hope is that my fellow Democrats have done the same. I think that Tea Partiers would be less likely to participate in this evasive maneuver as they seem to want to take advantage of every chance they can to rag on Democrats. A couple of days ago I started answering the phone again as I'd heard that Begich had dropped in the polls. That's my theory of what might (hopefully) be happening.
ReplyDeleteOh yes, the phone calls. My response is ask who is calling, and then hold out the phone and yell across the house, Hey Tom get off your sister and come down here! The calls have diminished.
ReplyDeleteGryph, thanks for the Star Wars reference in the caption.
ReplyDeletePoll-watching can be nerve-wrecking in close races.
ReplyDeleteHope Begich wins big!
This is from the comment section of the Princeton Election Consortium, led by Prof. Sam Wang:
ReplyDeleteSam Wang // Oct 24, 2014 at 9:22 pm
My main thought is that Alaska is a pain to analyze! Beyond that…I had figured Sullivan would win, and mostly I still do. But now I’m less sure of that.
http://election.princeton.edu/2014/10/23/senate-horserace-update/#more-11992
I take some heart in Prof. Wang's doubt and hope this next week shows Begich gaining even more ground.
Reminder to all those bothered by the election related phone calls. Go take advantage of early voting and your name is recorded as having voted and removed from the phone calls and door to door canvassing lists. I've heard that some people like the excitement of election day voting. That's great, but keep in mind that it's not impossible to get hit with the flu or some emergency and be prevented from voting. Anything this important should be taken care of post haste.
ReplyDelete