Monday, May 30, 2016

About those polls showing Bernie Sanders doing better against Trump than Hillary Clinton...

Okay so this gets brought up quite frequently by Bernie supporters as their last best argument as to why the super delegates should jumps ship and support their candidate at the convention:

"Bernie Sanders polls better than Hillary does against Donald Trump, and if we choose her Trump will be next President."

I have argued against this repeatedly, but I thought it might be helpful to hear what Politifact had to say about this topic: 

So Sanders is correct that he fares better against Trump than Clinton does in every poll over the past six weeks -- more than 6 points better than Clinton, on average. 

And Sanders is beating Trump by an average of 12 points in these eight polls, so "big numbers" seems like a reasonable description for Sanders to use. 

Case closed? Not quite, say polling experts. 

Clinton has been scrutinized and attacked as a public figure for a quarter century, but Sanders -- even after running for president for a year -- is a relatively new figure to voters nationally. So while a lot of voters’ minds are already made up about Clinton based on her long history in the public eye, it remains to be seen how open potential voters will be to supporting Sanders once Republicans start airing negative attacks, especially ones that note his identification as a democratic socialist. (We have previously reported that, according to polls, being a socialist is a less attractive quality for voters than being an atheist.) 

Kerwin Swint, a political scientist at Kennesaw State University, told PolitiFact Georgia that Sanders shows up so strongly in head-to-head polls because Trump and Clinton have such high negatives. 

"General election polls don’t mean much until the conventions are over and you get to late summer or early fall," Swint said. "A lot of voters don’t look at Sanders as a legitimate threat. It’s almost like he’s an imaginary candidate."

I like that "imaginary candidate" analogy, because in many ways a Sanders campaign is a far left wing liberal dream that has no chance of ever coming true.

Now pay attention to that comment about being a Socialist polling worse than being an Atheist, because that's kind of the key.

As I have written before Atheists often poll even lower than pedophiles in trustworthiness, and being elected as an out of the closet Atheist is a non-starter in a national election.

So if Socialists poll even lower, that means anti-Bernie advertisements for the Republican party simply write themselves.

All Donald Trump has to do is run commercials of Bernie Sanders trying to explain to various pundits that he is a "Democratic Socialist" and his poll numbers will drop through the floor.

It does not make a scintilla of difference if Donald Trump is a racist, woman hating, Putin dry humping egomaniac, because at least he is not a SOCIALIST!

And that is only one line of attack (Though arguably the most effective.), there is still plenty more opposition research to use against Bernie in the general.

And if you don't think the American people are dumb enough to be so easily swayed then ask yourself how come Hillary Clinton's poll numbers were in the mid to high sixties while she was Secretary of State and have now dropped to the low forties since the Republicans, and of course Sanders supporters, have started going after her non-stop for the last year?

Basically average Americans are easily manipulated sheep simply waiting for somebody to herd them from one place to the other. And in the case of the voting public nobody has started herding them away from the Vermont Senator.


Bernie Sanders has high poll numbers because nobody has cared enough about him to try and get them lowered. That is the benefit of being an "imaginary candidate." 


  1. Anonymous11:48 AM

    Four poll bustin' words.
    Federal Bureau of Investigation.

    1. Anonymous11:54 AM

      Are you talking about Jane Sanders' fraud charges?

    2. Anonymous12:02 PM

      11:48 - You need a new hobby. You are going to hate eating crow.

    3. Anonymous12:06 PM

      Charges have been brought up on Jane?
      If she broke the law they well should be!

    4. Anonymous12:22 PM

      Defrauding a bank is a federal crime, punishable up to 30 years in prison.

    5. Anonymous12:30 PM

      11:48 1 troll bustin' word. Liar.

    6. Anonymous12:47 PM

      Bernie using his influence as a sitting senator is also against the fucking law. He did this to get Jane her loan. She is guilty of fraud and he is guilty of using his influence to help her perpetrate it. Do Your Homework.

    7. Anonymous9:53 PM

      Hillary is going down.

      Bill couldn't be happier.

  2. Do pollsters EVER call people with at least a 3-digit IQ?
    The word "socialist" is anathema enough for those folks who don't understand social security and medicare, but I doubt Trump would be satisfied with calling Sanders a socialist. He'll start saying socialism is the same as communism and Sanders will be toast. Thank goodness Hillary WILL be the nominee.

    1. Anonymous12:00 PM

      Bernie was a communist, so it wouldn't even be stretching the truth. Is he still really a communist? I don't know but it would be brought up.
      Also, him being a deadbeat parent will be brought up.
      And his never holding a job down before becoming a career politician( certainly anyone believing in term limits would think about that).
      His wife's fraud would be brought up and Bernie's unethical( and illegal) part in getting a loan by lying.

    2. Anonymous3:20 PM

      12:00: You're an idiot. Cite your sources for your accusations or STFU.

    3. Anonymous3:38 PM

      3;20 is a jerk

    4. Anonymous4:09 PM

      You STFU you little shithead.

  3. Anonymous12:11 PM

    The "main stream" media has given Bernie Sanders a golden pass, something they did not do for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. I can just imagine how eager the GOP and their media henchmen are chafing at the bit with the "goods" on Bernie Sanders. Right now, they're using him to harm Hillary Clinton. And he's all too willing to be used.

    1. Anonymous1:07 PM

      Excellent comment, as usual, Beaglemom!

    2. Anonymous1:35 PM

      I wish Beaglemom would run for President. She'd have my vote!

  4. Anonymous12:20 PM

    I can hear Obama in a speech now, saying, "Hillary is literally the most thoroughly vetted presidential candidate in American history. Who in American history has endured a $70 MILLION dollar investigation that spanned several YEARS, and that unearthed NOTHING? And even since that investigation, other private investigations have been made, costing millions of dollars to right-wing political operative groups that have STILL unearthed NOTHING. And she is at the same time THE most-qualified person to have ever run for this office. And she's running against the person who, it can be proven without argument, is THE most UNQUALIFIED person to have run for this office in American history." And then he rattles off Hillary's lifetime achievements that go WAY beyond what most Americans have ever heard of (because she's been working her tail off for women's and children's causes since she was a TEENAGER). And then he similarly recites paragraphs of factual details based on public records involving all the things Trump has done that most Americans know nothing about – like the 170 currently existing FEDERAL LAWSUITS involving him, just for starters – cases in which he, even though president (because republicans established that legal precedent with President Clinton), will be compelled by the courts, each court in question, to offer sworn testimony – and these cases mostly involve allegations of fraud and tax evasion, and he may have to pay a large sum of hefty fines, plaintiff's costs, and court fees – and he appears to be the most emotionally unstable person to ever sought this office. Then, documented evidence of his mafia connections will be leaked – not to mention what Anonymous may leak about him. And the media will just have to grind their molars and still try to find a sound bite that, in their non-existent minds, somehow equalizes Hillary and Donald.

    Yeah, think about that one for a long time before getting hot and heavy about either Bernie or Donald.

    1. Former Sanders Supporter12:29 PM

      12:20 - Great post! Applause!

  5. Anonymous12:41 PM

    Gryphen , listen to your Daughter. She is the future and not you.

    1. You mean the daughter who is now planning to vote for Hillary?

      You're right, she is the future.

  6. Also, these numbers reflect the fact that almost all Clinton supporters say, in polls and elsewhere, that if Sanders were the nominee they would vote for him over Trump. Many Sanders supporters are still at the "I won't vote for the nominee if it's not my guy" stage.

    Trump is rising in the polls because he's unifying his party. Most of those Republicans who kept insisting during the primaries that they would never support Trump are rallying around him now that he's clinched the nomination, so his numbers are going up.

    Once Clinton clinches the Democratic nomination, the same thing will happen on our side. A few Sanders die-hards may still insist they won't support her (as a few Republicans still won't support Trump), but most will. Once our party has a clear nominee and becomes more unified, Clinton's poll numbers against Trump will start to look more like Sanders's do now.

  7. Anonymous1:15 PM

    "The most common response is that Bernie as yet has not been tested by the Republican’s slime machine. If he becomes the nominee they would red-bait him to death.

    We are told red-baiting will work because there is so much to attack — Bernie’s kind words for Cuba, his so-called honeymoon to the Soviet Union, and, of course, all his socialistic big government programs that he wants to foist on freedom-loving Americans.

    This meme is repeated so often (especially by Hillary surrogates) that it has taken on the status of conventional wisdom. It must be true or why would everyone be saying it?

    But, where is the evidence to show that Sanders has been hurt or would be hurt by a bombardment of red-baiting and other kinds of negative attacks?

    Vermont is part of the evidentiary base. It is so liberal, we are told, that Bernie’s many campaign victories are irrelevant for how he would fare across the country.

    But Vermont cast its electoral votes for Republicans from 1980 to 1988, and during that time Sanders was repeatedly elected mayor of Burlington, its largest city.

    Did his Republican opponents simply forget the art of red-baiting during all those years when the state voted Republican in national elections? Why was the millionaire Tarrant unsuccessful in pinning the commie label on him? What does it mean when an overt socialist wins 65 percent and 71 percent of the vote?

    New Hampshire also shares many media markets with Vermont so its voters know all about Bernie and his democratic socialism. It should be a good barometer of how deeply red-baiting has influenced a more conservative state.

    It hasn’t. New Hampshire voters greatly prefer Sanders over Trump, and Sanders runs far ahead of Clinton’s marginal two point lead. How do Hillary supporters write-off these results?

    Bernie is doing remarkably well with independents and young people. Recent polling suggests that socialism is not a bad word among these voters. Those under thrity years of age favor socialism over capitalism by 43 to 32 margin according to a January poll by

    How do explain why those two lovebirds were frolicking away in the Soviet Union in 1988 just before the collapse of the communist evil empire? What the hell was Bernie thinking?

    Well, it was a funny kind of honeymoon because 10 other people went along. It turns out the two Sanders lovebirds weren’t there for connubial bliss. They were there because of a sister city program set up by that great communist sympathizer, Dwight D. Eisenhower.

  8. Anonymous1:24 PM

    "When this year’s presidential primary began, many dismissed the Democratic Party contest as a “done deal”. It was assumed that Secretary Clinton would be the inevitable nominee—with the primaries and caucuses being a bothersome but required pro forma affair that Clinton would have to endure, until she had accumulated enough delegates to be declared the nominee.

    One year ago, Clinton was leading the rest of the Democratic field by between 50 to 60 points with none of her opponents believed to be serious challengers

    A year later, much has changed with the gap between Clinton and Sanders, among Democrats, having been narrowed to single digits. When the preferences of all voters (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents) are considered and Clinton and Sanders are matched separately against the GOP’s nominee, Donald Trump, a very different picture emerges. The average of this month’s polls show Trump beating Clinton by slightly less than 1 point. The same polls averages show Sanders beating Trump by about 11 points. And polls in key battleground states show much the same—with Clinton and Trump running neck and neck and Sanders beating Trump in every state.

    Part of Secretary Clinton’s problem is that she is running for president in a year when voter distrust of and even anger at the political and economic establishments has come to define the national mood. Many voters do not believe that politicians and corporate leaders consider the public’s wellbeing in their decision-making. Given this setting, Clinton’s claim of experience and her long-standing ties to Wall Street investors have become liabilities.

    Polls demonstrate that voters, especially the young and the growing number of those who declare no affiliation with either party, are drawn to Sanders because they see him as authentic and they trust him. Among voters under 45, Sanders beats Clinton by a margin of 2 to 1. And when all voters are asked who they trust more, Sanders wins by 3 to 1.

    Despite the view of media pundits and the Democratic establishment that the contest is over (a form of voter suppression) and calls that Sanders should withdraw from the race, he continues to demonstrate electoral strength—winning 2 out of the last 3 and 12 out of the last 20 states.

    At this point, Sanders can legitimately claim the support of about one-half of the Democratic Party’s base. This cannot be dismissed. Nor can his observation that he outperforms Clinton with Independents and fares better against the GOP in national and battleground state polls.

    But even if he does not win, what he represents cannot be dismissed or reduced to any single issue, as many of the press reports on his platform picks attempted to do this past week. What Sanders represents and the far-reaching change in domestic and foreign policy he has advocated and that many voters have endorsed should not be ignored."

    Dismissing what Bernie has ignited and deciding on the safer path of business as usual is a very real danger. I'm hoping Clinton recognizes that and adjusts her strategy accordingly. Because she has made some real blunders. Like the "Love trumps Hate" meme which was by and large interpreted as Love Trump and dropped very quickly.

    She is not flawless, she is not a guarantee of a win. She is a risk. Both her baggage and as a woman because face it, there are still people out there that don't want a woman president. There are also people out there that don't want any Clinton in office; witness her very high unfavorables.

    All Trump has to do is continue to refer to her as Crooked Hillary. She's been branded. Every time a voter hears Hillary they are going to hear Crooked Hillary in their head.

    Watch Bill Maher's most recent show with Scott Adams. He nails it.

  9. Anonymous1:55 PM

    What BS!!
    Your bitch is going to LOSE bitch.

    1. Poor 1:55....

      Ain't shit you can do about Hillary becoming President in November! Not a damn thing. So keep on driving up Gryphens stats with your endless babblings and sputtering! It's really entertaining! LOL!!

    2. Anonymous3:09 PM

      Your currency is worthless:
      Boston Herald: "With the Clintons you can always count on one thing — it’s never the crime; it’s the cover-up."
      USA Today: "But a new report by State's inspector general makes clear that within two years, Clinton's bad decision had turned into something far worse: a threat to national security, one that she repeatedly ignored despite multiple warnings."
      Washington Post: “Her decision to exclusively use a private e-mail account while secretary suggests she made a deliberate decision to shield her messages from scrutiny. It was a mistake that reflects poor judgment about a public trust.”
      New York Times: “Hillary Rodham Clinton’s decision when she was secretary of state to use only her personal email account to conduct official business was a disturbing departure from the normal practice of relying primarily on departmental emails for official business.”
      Charlotte Observer: “Clinton isn’t the first to use private email, but her failure to disclose massive batches is troubling. … But key issues remain unclear. What about her private-account emails to representatives of foreign governments? What about emails to U.S. officials on their private or government accounts?”
      Omaha World-Herald: “It’s pretty simple: If you are a government official, paid by the public to do the public’s business, then records of your work belong to the government and the people. Which makes the situation surrounding former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton’s emails troubling.”
      Wall Street Journal: “The real story here is that none of this is a surprise. This is how the Clintons roll. They’re a political version of the old Peanuts cartoon character who was always surrounded by a cloud of dirt. Ethical shortcuts and controversies are standard operating procedure.”
      Sacramento Bee: “The rule is drilled into office workers everywhere – only use your work email for business-related messages and keep your personal email separate. Somehow, Hillary Clinton doesn’t seem to have followed that protocol as our nation’s top diplomat – and she’s properly being asked pointed questions about it.”

    3. Anonymous3:27 PM


      Pronouncements, such as your cocksure certainty of Clinton's election, actually makes a very large percentage of Dem and Independent voters more likely to write in ANY candidate instead of her, or even vote for Trump so you people have to eat that crow that you are so confidently slinging around in everyone's face.

    4. Anonymous3:44 PM

      Gina, you have scared the rightwing trolls! Well done! LOL!

    5. Anonymous3:47 PM

      3:09 - and yet none of your OpEd quotes (without writer attributions, by the way) say that HRC did anything that was illegal. And neither did the OIG Conclusion. Next!

    6. Anonymous3:59 PM

      No shit!
      C'mon GinaM,let's rumble!
      Bring your A-Game and let's do this.

    7. Anonymous4:03 PM

      What sort of Bernie voter would vote for Trump just to piss off Hillary supporters? ... an irresponsible immature child. Is that what you are 3:27 or are you a right winger sowing crap on a left leaning blog?

    8. 3:59pm dumbass said..."C'mon GinaM,let's rumble!"

      WTF! This ain't no wrestling show dummy! Get the fuck out of here with that 1950's Westside Story shit! Next you'll be posting "Ayyyy...I'm the Fonz!"



      Hillary is still going to be YOUR President in November! LOL!!

    9. Anonymous9:51 PM

      She wont lose, because she is going to prison first.

    10. Anonymous11:02 PM

      4:03... I forget which Dem state caucus...New Hampshire? Exit poll 30% Republicans who said they voted for BS were voting for Trump in the general

  10. Randall2:00 PM

    I know all about disappointment when your "dream" left-wing Democratic candidate loses the race by a landslide...
    I'm from Sioux Falls, South Dakota and I'm old - I was in George McGovern's hotel suite on election night back in 1972.
    It was a bitterly, bitterly disappointing night.
    (Heads-up to Bernie Sanders supporters)

    1. Anonymous2:51 PM

      South Dakota,where you go on vacation and leave on probation.
      The Minnehaha County Jail is a nice place!
      And about disappointing,Hillaristas gonna be hatin' life when the FBI report comes out.

  11. Hillary got three million more primary votes than Bernie did, including vastly higher support among blacks and Latinos, a critical part of the party base. Brushing aside the verdict of the party membership and nominating the candidate they rejected would assure political suicide in November.

    1. Anonymous3:35 PM

      fuck Bernie. He is intimated by a woman president.

    2. Anonymous9:50 PM

      3:35 hiding behind Hillary's vagina again.

  12. 66gardeners3:35 PM

    Realclearpolitics average of polls for the Democratic Primary
    Clinton up 8.6% over Sanders

    This is the only poll that matters.

    Bernie needs to be ignored

    1. And how well was Kerry doing over Dean?

      Yeah, that worked out so well for us.

  13. Anonymous3:39 PM

    "Sanders hasn't been vetted/ hasn't been looked at closely/ is going to face attacks unknown if nominated" are myths.

    Many many negative articles about Sanders' programs and past have been published by WaPo, Daily Beast, Vox, Slate, Correct the Record, Daily News Bin. That's vetting.

    WaPo has published almost weekly negative editorial pieces about Sanders. That's vetting.

    Brookings Institute analyzed and reported on Sanders' tax plan. That's vetting.

    Newspapers that have endorsed Clinton - New York Times, Boston Globe, Chicago Sun-Times, New York Daily News, LA Times, Las Vegas Sun, and Rolling Stone - vetted Sanders and criticized him on things ranging from his tax plans, his socialist label, his history in Congress. That's vetting.

    Now maybe there's some as yet unknown bombshell out there about Sanders. Maybe he shot a man in Reno just to watch him die. Do you really think the Clinton team with its deep resources has missed something in its research on Sanders that the Republicans are going to find? Or Clinton's team has found something totally damning about Bernie that they're holding back because they're so nice and they're winning? The press hasn't found it but it will be easy enough for Republicans to find once they decide to go after Bernie? Unlikely. Let's not forget she tried the not vetted argument about Obama in 2008, too.

    "Bernie's not vetted" is hogwash.

  14. Anonymous3:48 PM

    Poor tied Bernie fell asleep at a Memorial Service today:

    1. Anonymous4:03 PM

      ^ Poor TIRED Bernie.

    2. Anonymous4:26 PM

      A political dirty trick politicizing this day. Blew up in her face, too. Here's a few of the responses she got: (Zoe Dunning, Clinton supporter)

      Christine Pelosi "Yikes - maybe he is praying? #ImWithHer and/but don't think Bernie closing his eyes at a memorial service negates his good works for veterans and military families. As Hillary often reminds us, #LoveTrumpsHate ."

      I bet ol' Zoe peed herself a little getting a slap from a Pelosi.

      Someone posted this from 2012:

      "Zoe, thanx for your service. But I’m VFW and elected green (county council) and I still honor Bernie’s dedication to veterans rights. This is sheer artifice and a desperate attempt to disparage someone who has a stellar record of vets rights, nothing more to add here, #SMDFH"

      "Aren’t old people the worst?? He clearly hates all veterans. Nothing political about that on Memorial Day, eh? That’s the San Francisco Democratic Party for you….never failing to miss an opportunity to act like a Republican!"

      "Sanders should have sat there foaming at the mouth, pondering which nation he would bomb and destroy the future of and then — like the Clintons and the Bushes — take no responsibility for!"

      "Assuming that HRC is running a transparent campaign, she's not attending anything of the sort today. But the good news is she has two fundraisers on Tue, one on Wed, and one on Thu that she's headlining. I guess that's comparable."

      "Many presidents have dozed off in public. It's a grueling job, so I think this is an unfair attack -- and I am a Hillary supporter."

      "Ridiculous to use this to pass judgement on someone who cares more than all the other candidates put together -- about veteran's issues and all others."

      "I think campaign mode is exhausting and involves an abnormal travel schedule that not even a president would be expected to accomplish. Good for Bernie attending when so exhausted. Yes it is hectic for anyone. That said I truly trust that the heart and solicitude harbored by both Bernie and Hillary toward deceased soldiers is equal. That said at least he never voted for the war that took the last 4,900 of them."

      And when Zoe doubles down:
      "I applaud your ability to wrap your indignation in the flag with every bit as much false superiority as a political hack would on a day that is supposedly reserved for reverence. Honorable."

    3. Anonymous5:08 PM

      Poor tired Bernie.

  15. Anonymous4:38 PM

    There are more than just Clinton and Trump to vote for. I'll vote my conscience and fuck whatever happens to either of them.

    1. AKRNHSNC6:25 AM

      It's more likely you and others like you who will be fucked along with the rest of the country if Trump is President. It's that ignorant attitude that gave us Bush and will also give us SCOTUS with a conservative bias that will last for the majority of our lives. Won't you be so proud to say, well I didn't vote for Hillary? Yeah, you will, until you don't have healthcare, Medicare, Social Security, Unemployment, USPS or any number of programs that are in effect today to help those who never know when they might need them. The righteous like you are really the most ignorant among us!

  16. Anonymous5:16 PM

    Great new interview on the e-mails. Powell & Rice "didn't give up a single goddamn e-mail" after 9/11. Says Hillary's server was safer than State's! Double standard!

    1. Anonymous6:39 PM

      This is from August 2015.

    2. AKRNHSNC6:25 AM

      It may be from 2015 but that doesn't mean it's not true then or now.

  17. Anonymous5:07 AM

    Bernie needs to be ignored?

    His policies are for making college open to young people and to get corporate for-profit control out of heath care- which is what driving up costs for medical treatment in the US beyond anywhere else in the world.

    He would tax Wall St. transactions more and address the hugely disparate wealth of the one percent that began with the huge tax cut by the Repubs some 30 years ago to pay for this.

    In fact, he is not a Socialist or a Communist. He calls himself a Democratic Socialist which means he is for a blend of capitalism and socialism. He policies are in line with FDR era Democrats before the party adopted Reagan era economic policies like deregulation and "trickle down" (that both Clintons pushed) that have now demonstrably failed and crashed the economy worldwide.

    Old red-baiting terms like communist and socialist have been used by Big Business and associates since the 1800s as slurs and buzz words to defame and bust unions and other programs that advanced working people, and to justify war and military spending during the Cold War.

    We have socialism already: social security, medicare, food stamps, unemployment compensation, school grants etc., socialist programs first promoted and enacted by the Democratic party.

    Bernie is about returning the party to its traditional role as the party of the working class. Unfortunately, Hillary is beholden to Wall St.--over 50 percent of her campaign money is from Wall St. We need Bernie to keep the party true to its base when Hillary has to perform for Wall St. bankers when they call their favors in.


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