One of the world's biggest bookies is so sure that Hillary Clinton will win next month's U.S. presidential contest that it has already started paying bettors.
Paddy Power said Tuesday it will begin to pay out more than $1 million US to people with bets on its books in favour of Clinton, whose odds of winning have risen so high that a bettor would have to put up $11 just to win $2. In decimal terms, that implies the wife of former president Bill Clinton has better than an 84 per cent chance of victory.
That's in keeping with some recent polls, with Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com currently predicting an 85 per cent chance of victory for the Democrats, based on a compendium of different polls.
"With national polls showing a healthy lead for the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump's campaign running into scandal after scandal, Paddy Power believes it's a done deal and that Hillary is a nailed-on certainty to occupy the Oval Office," Paddy Power, based in Ireland, said about the Republican nominee.
Gee, and that is even before tonight's debate where Hillary will likely mop the floor with Trump again and increase her lead by several more percentage points.
Though now that HuffPo puts her chances of winning at over 94% it is hard to see how her lead can increase much more.
Complacency will be the downfall of those who are lazy and let the polls do the talking.
ReplyDeleteGet out there and VOTE!
That is for sure, be prepared for long lines, bring supplies if necessary.
DeleteComplacency was how we got stuck with Engler in Michigan, the democrats thought Blanchard had it in the bag and stayed home.
Trump's got no chance except for a low turnout on the Dems' end, but people are getting excited and her great surrogates are working nonstop for her.
ReplyDeleteHe has sunk so low in how he handles the debates (and everything else) and is now saying that his invite of Pres Obama's half-brother to tonight's debate is an "appetizer." One other person he's invited--and he's got to have more to surprise us all, like last time--is the Benghazi mother who is filled with venom for Hillary and who she says H "murdered" her son. I think Trump will point right to the woman during the debate and use her wording as he talks about Hillary's record. I think he's going to absolutely make sure that he highlights his guest. And who knows what else will make for his entree guests. He's going to go all-out using his guests, I think, and not just have them sitting there in the audience.
After what he pulled last time and after how Melania said on TV that the Clintons are involved in rigging the election and that they were "asking for it" when Trump brought Bill's accusers to the debate (man do I hate Melania--no sympathy for her from me), I was glad to read this morn that Bill and Melania (and the Trump children) will not be shaking hands tonight. The spouses will enter the room differently. No way should the Clintons have to ever shake a Trump hand again, and I'm glad they were able to get an adjustment to the spouses' entrance. Explanation is here, followed by another link re Hillary's other guests besides Cuban and Republican Meg Whitman:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/19/us/politics/melania-trump-bill-clinton.html
https://lasvegassun.com/news/2016/oct/18/three-nevadans-to-attend-debate-as-guests-of-hilla/
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/17/paula-jones-to-penthouse-the-right-used-me.html
DeleteWhen I get a little anxious about this election I google "Las Vegas presidental odds" and click on paddypower.com
ReplyDeleteBeen doing that for a while now. Maybe Donald needs a heads up... I have such an itch to bet my neighbor with the Trump/Pence sighs in his yard $20.
No premature celebrations, fer cryin' out loud!
ReplyDeleteTHIS is how it works:
1) Vote
2) Wait for results
3) THEN celebrate.
That being said, with all due respect, I'd like to sincerely wish Mr. Drumpf a soul crushing defeat from which his undeservedly massive ego never recovers. And good luck to you, Madame President.
And to Melania: when your hubby loses and you start wondering what went wrong and why you and he won't ever step foot in the WH, the answer will be that you were "asking for it" and got clobbered because you were and are so hateful and dishonest and dangerous and undeserving.
DeleteG. I am getting paranoid. Twice I tried to talk about a certain highly interpersonal aggressive leader with a penchant for killing his naysayers (Not Donald, (yet)and I got edited and rejected by your blog. So I will try again and not mention names. But saying, baldy want's world domination and bully will help him achieve this while powerpuff girl will take them and all their evil schemes down. What makes me mad is bully doesn't think that he is doing anything wrong other than business. He's done evil ways of business so long he can't tell when he's trading a democracy for dollars. Baldy knows and loves this. Powerpuff girl knows this too. We know it. We are trying hard to stay free. They say freedom is not free but in Baldy's land freedom is unthinkable, and Bully is his bitch. Go, Powerpuff girl. Take them down.
ReplyDeleteAs far as I know, it's not over until it's over - and that will be on November 9.
ReplyDeleteBeaglemom
Except for Trump supporters, they vote on Nov 28th, like their leader told them.
DeleteWhy are they even bothering, donnie already told them it was all rigged?
BRAVO!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/norman-lear-urges-voters-to-destroy-trump-beat-his-ass-so-his-message-is-discredited-for-all-time/
Love that there's a wall of taco trucks around Trump's Vegas hotel. The culinary union is in on it, too--it's not only about immigration and a reminder that there are many immigrants who will be voting, but it's also about Trump's anti-union record. Pics are online, although I'm still waiting to see one that has the camera at a distance so as to really see the full line of trucks.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteAna Navarro tweet:
Trump bringing Obama's Kenyan 1/2 brother to debate to get in HRC's head. Cuz she was born in IL which must make her Mexican...or something.
Hell ya Hillary is going to win. My dead grandmother has already voted 17 times for her in Florida.
ReplyDelete@9:46 AM You have no respect for her nor yourself, asshole.
DeleteShow us the proof, 9:46 am and then I'll show it to the State Division of Elections and AG's Office. You're also complicit in this crime.
DeleteDems will win even without your fraud.
I took the comment by 9:46 as a joke. Thought it was funny until I saw the two following slams. Guess we all need to lighten up a bit.
DeletePat Padrnos
Burr (NC)needs to go. Issa (CA)needs to go and Andrea Mitchell needs to cast her damned vote for Drumpf and give up her microphone. She is such an obvious shill for Drumpf. We got her husband out - only after he got us the recession with Bush's help - now go leave us alone Andrea!
ReplyDeleteEveryone - be sure you vote those down ballot spots. HRC needs support from both the House and the Senate. Let's give her all the help we can!
God yes, Daryll Issa needs to go!
Deletehttps://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Knew-Times-Greenspan/dp/1594204845
DeleteAndrea's husband^^^^^2016
Nate Silver shows the Senate looking very good for the Dems. The House, not so much.
DeleteLet's not mistake paddypower investing in some advertising with real information about the election. It's an easy google to learn they did the same thing in 2012 and 2008. Why so eager to spike the football?
ReplyDelete9:27 Beaglemom is right. But each day seems more hopeful. I have everything crossed - my legs, my fingers and my eyes.
ReplyDeleteMy sincere best wishes to Hil for tonight's debate. This is going to be brutal, I fear.
Pat Padrnos
Hillary can handle Trump half asleep. Don't worry about her.
DeleteIf Hillary handled 11 hours of hostile Congressmen, she can handle Donnie Trump.
DeleteBesides he isn’t going to bring anything new to the table, same old nasty remarks, fingerpointing and a lot of snorting.
Trump's loss can be easily explained as the result of accepting Sarah Palin's endorsement. Even though he later threw her aside, the damage was done: the Palin Curse had enough time to infect his campaign.
ReplyDeleteIn the aftermath, Sarah's fans will cite the absence of her in the campaign as the real reason he lost.
Looking forward to it.
The same bookie paid out early on the Brexit Vote and was WRONG!
ReplyDeleteHad to pay al the other betters after the vote tally.
Don't be so smug!
THIS!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.amazon.com/Trump-Revealed-American-Journey-Ambition/dp/1501155776
In the White House under advise from whomever 'in 20 seconds he will make a decision by his GUT'
From The book 'POWER OF NARCISSIST' he took this>
Army of 1
Lone Ranger
HE is the answer'
"Looking out for Donald Trump"
Daddy Fred> "You have to be a KILLher."
Donald to daddy Fred "I'm going to be "the KING of DEBIT"
Then this:
Trump was AWARE that a 'MOB GIRLFRIEND who DEMANDED the POOL be built in Trump Towers lived just below him. Involved in this was a FBI INFORMANT that stated 'Trump knew who he was in bed with'.
He loved and got in business with pro wrestling and beauty pageants. He was a "Character Actor" THAT is who he is". He is "ROGUE" $elling Himself.
His history in business> 6-6-6 bankruptcies.
Trump changed his party affiliations 7 times.
It tells it....20+ hours from Trump Himself.
I am leaning toward the theory that Trump wants a win to have a network and ensure his base follows him to increase his wealth and power. He can exact revenge undermining Republicans and smearing Clinton.
ReplyDeleteThe more I consider the illogic of Trump digging himself in deeper, escalating what has him losing votes only serves to solidify his base throwing red meat and mud.
Just saying this may be a calculated plan for what Trump's true end is and has been. He can do what Palin did generating lucrative income post a candidacy. Personality disordered people get what they want destructively.
Gamble NOT:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rawstory.com/2016/10/roger-ailes-breaks-away-from-waste-of-time-trump-just-before-the-final-debate/
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-ailes-no-longer-speaking
Delete<<-------xxx
At this point with the horrendous Trump in play--just VOTE everybody.
ReplyDeleteSenator Warren:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/sen-elizabeth-warren-just-tore-trumps-rigged-election-fearmongering
Election blowing wide open! National: PRRI Hillary +15%, SurveyUSA +10%,Bloomberg +9%. State: AZ +5%
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/19/1584347/-Election-blowing-wide-open-National-PRRI-Hillary-15-Bloomberg-9-State-AZ-5
Kentucky Is Now A Toss Up As Trump Support Collapses In Mitch McConnell’s Home State
ReplyDeleteA new poll of Kentucky reveals that Donald Trump has nearly blown a 12 point lead in Mitch McConnell's home state, and now leads Hillary Clinton within the poll's margin of error.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/19/kentucky-toss-trump-support-collapses-mitch-mcconnells-home-state.html
Trump Skips Debate Walk-Through To Presumably Mope In His Hotel Room
ReplyDeleteThe third debate could be the bitter Donald Trump self-pity show. The fact that Trump is probably sulking in his hotel room instead of making sure that all is well with the debate stage is a very bad sign for the Republican Party.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/19/trump-skips-debate-walk-mope-hotel-room.html
Maybe he's just hungry for tacos.
Deleteboo hoo hoo, did someone hurt little donnie's feelings?
DeleteMaybe he will do us the favor and skip the debate, use the rigged debate excuse again.
Then Hillary can use the time wisely and have the whole 90 mins without interruptions from the kiddie section.
"They're making me do the debate and I don't wanna!"
DeleteNewt Gingrich: ‘Little Trump’ Lashes Out ‘Uncontrollably’ When Criticized
ReplyDeletehttp://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/newt-gingrich-little-trump-acts-uncontrollably-when-criticized
DUH.
DeleteLooks like Newt might be following close on Ailes heels.
LOL. And here I thought Trump called his "little trump" John Baron.
Trump’s standing in his own state is getting worse. The Real Clear Politics average of New York polls is Clinton (+21). Trump has gone from trailing Hillary Clinton by 18 points in August to 24 points today.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/19/trump-promised-win-york-hillary-clinton-beating-24-points.html
He's tanking in Texas too. Not enough to lose it but enough to be really embarrassing to a Republican. He should have won it in high double digits but he's going to win with the lowest percentage EVER.
DeleteFederal judge orders Trump's counsel to court to review alleged violent rape of 13-year-old girl
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/19/1584036/-Federal-judge-orders-Trump-to-appear-in-court-to-review-alleged-violent-rape-of-13-year-old-girl
Why? I thought Bill Clinton did worse things.
DeleteIsnt it a rule that if you get caught doing something wrong and you can accuse someone else of doing worse, they CAN'T prosecute you?
Im no lawyer, but Im pretty sure that's the classic "THAT OTHER GUY WAS GOING FASTER THAN ME, OFFICER!!!" Defense aka the "Whiny Douchebag Defense"
"But MA. All the other guys are doing it."
DeleteAfter tonight's debate, I think the bookie is pretty safe.
ReplyDeleteBy the end of the week, you'll see the results of the debate. It won't be big, but it will solidify and stabilize.