A leading Alaska economics firm predicts our recession will continue for three more years and foresees no real recovery, just decline and then a future with a smaller economy.
Jonathan King, vice president of Northern Economics, said he feels like he is riding a down-bound train, able to see hard times for his business a year ahead but unable to do anything about it. We visited to look down the track together and think about what is coming for his and others' families.
King presented Wednesday to the Senate Labor and Commerce Committee after Mouhcine Guettabi, of the Institute of Social and Economic Research of the University of Alaska Anchorage. The economists' teams worked independently, using different computer models, but they came to strikingly similar conclusions.
"This is our great recession. By the time this is over, we expect to lose 6 percent of our jobs," King told the committee.
A recession is unfolding of similar severity to what the nation endured after the 2008 financial crisis, but with a critical difference, King said. The U.S. economy recovered. He expects Alaska's economy to shrink long term to a smaller base.
At oil going for less than $54 a barrel, and no real hope that it will go any higher, there is just not enough profit in opening new fields in Alaska for drilling. (So yes Senators Murkowski and Sullivan, that means opening ANWR does nothing to save us.)
With oil off the table as the quick fix Alaska had relied on, there is really no other fallback industry which will help Alaska get back on its feet in the immediate future.
However King did offer this one possibility:
"We're one tweet away from $100 a barrel oil," King said. "All it takes is a shooting war in the Middle East and we're back in business. Which I hate to say."
Well there's a happy thought.
Personally I am fortunate to be in a recession proof job, however I know that a recession will still have an effect on all of our lives.
So for all of you considering a move to the Last Frontier, I would suggest that you alter your plans immediately. Because simply put, we can't afford you.
Proving once again that $arah is a dumbshit!
ReplyDeleteJust think what a mess Alaska could have been in if Sarah Palin hadn't "resigned" so Captain Zero and his Crooked Bastards Club could pass SB 21! The oil companies were almost ready to leave Alaska if they hadn't gotten their entitlement funds.
ReplyDeleteEither spit the loogy or swallow it already!
DeleteEven if new oil fields were open for drilling, wouldn't the increasing supply of oil cause the price of a barrel to go even lower?
ReplyDeleteNot if that oil were in strong demand. Like, manufacture a situation that interferes with production....
DeleteToo bad there's not a profit in solar/wind energy to compare with toxic oil.
It's true that solar profits are not yet as great as those for oil, but the costs in solar have decreased so that they are competitive, and they continue to become a better value, especially all things considered.
DeleteI have seen v little in the press, over the years, about how big oil will deal with its extinction as an industry, which is of course a key goal of our response to climate change.
Did anyone ever think they would go down without a huge fight? Huge. They might even win the fight, as the election of Trump suggests. In which case, we are cooked, literally.
War has been started for even more stupid reasons. Wouldn't surprise me if Trump looks at starting a war as good business.
ReplyDeleteHe DOES. WHere have you been all along?
Delete
Delete"We're one tweet away from $100 a barrel oil," King said. "All it takes is a shooting war in the Middle East and we're back in business. Which I hate to say."
When we ask "who benefits by all this endless war," we have the answer in the war profiteers. As true today and into the future as it was true yesterday.
Putin's weak economy would be hugely helped by some more war for him, which has been historically true for Russia. To say nothing of the rah-rah aspect of flag-waving that goes with it.
Trump will have trouble raising the numbers of the stronger economy Obama left us. More war would a no-brainer for increasing demand, employment, and profits. And death, but who cares? It's not death for the 1%.
Yeah and apparently the soldier boys and girls are being 'deployed' right now! :/
DeleteCome on man, Alaska can't be in a recession! Look at the Palins and Meyers, nobody is working and they're living the life of Riley. Life is great.
ReplyDeleteMoney laundering is exhausting work hu Sarah?
DeleteDumbass Alaskans did this to themselves with their absolute infatuation with buying the lies of big oil. Gee, it's a damn shame Alaska didn't build that gasline that has been MANDATED since 1976. You know the one that has all the land reserved right next to the existing pipeline just sitting there waiting for the powers that be to do what the voters have told them to do 3 fucking times now!
ReplyDeleteSince 1976 it has sat there as the largest SHOVEL READY infrastructure project in the world! You know, the one where all the land has been cleared and approved by the EPA, right next to the existing Aleyeska infrastructure. That one that sends and receives gas to the northernmost ice free port in the world, already set up with the infrastructure to deal with the double hulled tankers that come in and out EVERYDAY!
You know, the one the oil companies are so terrified of, they spend billions to tell people they are going to build one through Denali park instead? Or perhaps they will take it through 14 tribal lands into Canada? they simply say believe us, give us billions and watch us laugh at ALL the stupid fucking Alaskans like TransCanada just did.
The FACT is big oil has no time frames, they are in the long game. They KNOW that in another 10-15 years the technology will be such that they can go right over the polar ice cap with ALASKA'S gas, straight to the Asian market and big oil will have to share NO profits with Alaskans for their resources. I can assure you all this will be worked out by Tillerson and Alaska gets raped again. But ya know, I've given up feeling sorry for other Alaskans. It's amazing with their stupidity they can even find the door to leave their trailers in the morning. Big oil lies, Alaskans swoon, we all get fucked. Lather, rinse, repeat.
There will be a gasline built eventually, probably by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and some other Japanese partners, which will help Alaskans some. The problem is Alaska could have built that same line and kept ALL the profits, if they just would STOP believing big oil, and demand that the legislature once AGAIN, approve the gasline that has been mandated since 1976!
Just because SarahPac is running low on cash does not constitute a recession for the rest of Alaska.
ReplyDeleteO/T Alternative facts of the day:
ReplyDeleteI thought they were going to do us a favor and keep that woman off tv.
------------------------------------
The Latest:
The Associated Press
A top aide to President Donald Trump is asserting that his critics are "cherry-picking" in questioning his claims of election fraud last November. "I hardly think it's an ego issue," senior adviser Kellyanne Conway told NBC's "Today" show Thursday.
"I think everybody's cherry-picking to call this an ego trip," she said. "Why not have an investigation. What's everybody afraid of?"
More alternative facts:
Trump: Researcher Who Found No Widespread Voter Fraud Is 'Groveling'
.............
Muir tried to clarify whether Trump believes millions of people voted illegally in the 2016 election.
"I didn't say there are millions. But I think there could very well be millions of people. That's right," the President replied, contradicting past statements he has made asserting that millions voted illegally.
The ABC host later asked, "Do you think that talking about millions of illegal votes is dangerous to this country without presenting the evidence?"
"Not at all because many people feel the same way that I do," Trump replied.
When Muir asked if making unsubstantiated claims undermines Trump's credibility, Trump doubled down on his beliefs about voter fraud.
"No, not at all because they didn't come to me. Believe me. Those were Hillary votes," Trump said.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-voter-fraud-pew
Whoa people. My family is doing just fine up here. My children are not fucking like rats and having babies in a irresponsible manner. My children and grandchildren are not bastards. My children are not threatening suicide or threatening to kill their baby's mamas. My children are smarter than 3rd graders and they have jobs. We're Alaskan, we're not a bunch of moose tipping retards getting drunk looking for fights with our elderly neighbors and ruining their birthday celebrations.
ReplyDeleteaw how is the old old man doing these days?
DeleteI hope for your sake that you are right, Gryphon, but is there REALLY ANY job that is recession-proof? (outside of being a member of the 1% of course)???
ReplyDeleteCake Decorator, School Bus Driver, IT Code Developer.
DeleteYou can forget the idea of $100 a barrel oil.
ReplyDeleteWhen Drumpf removes the sanctions on Russia their production is going to skyrocket and will be sold in the U.S. keeping the price down.
If Alaskan politicians fears a recession then tell the Palins to get off their lazy asses and do something to improve our economy. Pretending to write their own blog and gossiping on facebook doesn't produce a product we can sell in the lower 48.
ReplyDeleteButt butt that is W O R K...it's exhausting!
DeleteAlaska was a very nice place before the oil was discovered! It could be again!
ReplyDeleteTermination report is in for $arah PAC. http://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00458588/1141550/
ReplyDeleteNo money in SarahPac? Grandma you're broke?
DeleteWho's this?
This is Kayla grandma!
I don't know any Kayla?
Grandma, I used to be the daughter of Track.
My Track doesn't have any children. Leave me alone.
WTF? SARAHPAC IS BROKE?
ReplyDelete6. Cash On Hand $100,775.65
7. Total Disbursements $100,775.65
8. Cash on Hand at Close of Reporting Period 0.00
FUCK! Sarah Palin lost the family car wash business, Shailey Tripp left them, Sarah put Wasilla in debt building a hockey rink on unsecured land within walking distance to her house and now ran SarahPac into non-existence and she wanted to run Veterans Affairs? "Sorry soldiers, we're broke and have to shut down."
You Veteran boys and girls are Fucked!
Deletehttp://bipartisanreport.com/2017/01/25/u-s-veterans-just-turned-against-donald-trump-it-is-going-viral-details/
Don't worry kids. Mama squirreled away tons of money in black plastic trash bags in mama's garden in case of a rainy day. Looks like rain? We'll be fine for about 50 years, that's if Track doesn't kill anybody and Bristol stops having babies and Willow stop going to Mexico to ride horses on the beaches and Todd starts jacking off instead of going to ho town and Piper starts using birth control.
ReplyDeleteIt's just a coincidence that
ReplyDelete6. Cash On Hand $100,775.65
7. Total Disbursements $100,775.65
Are the same. Come on man, not even a penny left after all those years?
Yes, I wondered how they managed to get it to exactly zero
DeleteSARAHPAC DISBURSEMENTS:
ReplyDeleteLuxury Limousines
8825 Runamuck
Anchorage, Alaska 995025632
11/11/2016 suv rental $606.36?
$606 TO RENT A LIMOUSINE?
WHY A FUCKING LUXURY LIMOUSINE?
WHAT'S WRONG WITH VALLEY CAR RENTAL?
Why did Sarah need a luxury limousine in Wasilla? Did she take it to Taco Bell to buy a Diet Dr Pepper and a Taco Crunch wrap?
DeleteREAD THIS and WEEP AMERICA!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.politicususa.com/2017/01/26/america-fascist-trump-republican-regime.html
Master's of War
DeleteBob Dylan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2mabTnMHe8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2mabTnMHe8
Medal of FREEdom^^^
Who didn't see this coming? With the idiot R's in charge of the AK (and US) gubmint, you are in a world of hurt.
ReplyDeleteOnly 1 or 2 people I know are still holding the fort there. The rest have either left within the past 10 years, or have died there.
Good luck.
I live in Louisiana,we used to be totally dependent on oil for our economy.We went through an oil recession,we lost jobs and businesses.We are still a crappy state,but we learned to diversify.Figure out what else you have to offer,don't try to ride that train down to the bottom. And oh,that PFD was always a bad idea.Those huge families that live off it? The state will still end up supporting them with the money dried up.
ReplyDelete