The Sarah Palin Pregnancy. What are the odds?

One of the arguments that I hear all of the time against the idea that Sarah faked her pregnancy is this one, "What are the odds that she could have pulled such a thing off without anybody discovering the truth?"

That is a question all right. And not a bad one.

I believe the same question was probably posed to the National Enquirer reporter who started to unravel the lies about John Edwards love child.  And I believe that a number of reporters also heard that same argument concerning Bernie Madoff's ability to swindle so many intelligent people without getting caught. And don't you wonder how many reporters heard rumors of Tiger Woods having affairs, and just figured it was idle talk because "what are the odds that he wouldn't get caught?"

So let's use that same line of logic to examine Sarah Palin's pregnancy.

No not the idea that she faked it. No let's discuss the odds that HER version of the story is accurate.  You know, the one that ALL of her followers and the mainstream media just accept as fact.  That one.

Let's start at the very beginning.

What are the odds that Sarah Palin would tell reporter Bill McAllister that her daughter Bristol was not pregnant, and then not much later announce that instead SHE was the one that was "pregnant"?

What are the odds? What do you think, a thousand to one maybe?

And what are the odds that she would not announce her pregnancy until she was seven months along? And that when she did so NOT ONE person suspected that she was with child?  Not one!

What are the odds? According to more than one doctor I have talked to the idea of a middle aged woman, on her fifth pregnancy (not to mention two miscarriages), being seven months pregnant, with NO co-worker or family member being the wiser, is a virtual impossibility.

And what are the odds that this same woman, after her big announcement,  would continue to look relatively slim and trim:

Eight days later

20 days later

 23 days later

Before finally exploding out and really appearing fully pregnant just five days before the birth of darling little Trig Palin?  Come on ladies, I am asking you specifically, what are the odds?  A thousand to one?  Ten thousand to one?

And speaking of odds, what are the odds that at around eight months into her pregnancy Sarah Palin's doctor, Cathy Baldwin-Johnson, would have allowed her patient to fly 4,500 miles to Texas to give a speech to a room full of governors? A hundred thousand to one perhaps?

And having awakened in Texas on the morning of the speech with a "strange sensation" low in her belly, and leaking amniotic fluid, what are the odds that after calling her doctor (which Palin claims to have done in her book "Going Rogue"), that the doctor would NOT have insisted that Sarah rush to a nearby hospital and get checked out immediately?

Nope didn't happen.  Instead Sarah got up, wiped the amniotic dribble off of her leg, got dressed, and around eight hours later gave a speech.

And what about that room full of governors?  What are the odds that not ONE of them apparently knew that their fellow governor was in any distress? From her book on page 195:

"I know you're pregnant," Rick (Perry) said, joking into the mic. "But don't tell me you're going to have the baby right now!'

The audience laughed. I smiled and waved good-bye.  I thought, if only you knew!

After the speech Sarah claims to have boarded a plane to fly the 4,500 miles back to Alaska. But what are the odds of her doctor supporting THAT decision?

Well I asked a doctor that very question and this what I was told.

No 44 year old woman, pregnant for the fifth time with a special-needs child would make the decisions she made, and no doctor would support them.

She traveled out of state during the 35th week of her pregnancy. After experiencing premature rupture of membranes and some contractions, she waited nearly ten hours to give a speech then traveled nearly twelve hours more, taking two separate flights both of which had flight times of around four hours, with a layover of approximately two hours in between.

Expected duration of labor for someone with Gov. Palin's history (four previous vaginal births) would be 6 hours +/- 3.6 hours. It was not only "possible" that she would give birth long before she arrived back in Alaska, it was probable. And, while it's just barely believable that she would remain at a conference and wait to give a speech she was "determined to give" (since a modern hospital was only minutes away), there's no way one can apply this same reasoning to her subsequently getting on an airplane for two separate four-hour flights.

However in Sarah Palin's reality she DID board that plane and took off to give birth to her baby in Alaska, because as the ever eloquent Todd Palin said, "You can't have a fish picker from Texas!"

And just like everything in this fairy tale, the flight went swimmingly.  According to Alaska Airlines spokesperson,Caroline Boren: "The stage of her pregnancy was not apparent by observation. She did not show any signs of distress," Boren said. Really?

And according to an e-mail obtained by MSNBC the Governor did not appear distressed in the Alaska Airlines Boardroom in Seattle either:

It seemed as though you were engrossed in a book so I spoke mostly with Todd and tried not to intrude on your opportunity to relax. Little did I know that your were in labor at the time.

Have you ever SEEN a woman eight months pregnant on a plane?  Did they seem a little distressed?  Could you at least vaguely determine by observation the stage of their pregnancy? Yeah I thought so.

And again just what are the odds that over twenty hours after waking up leaking amniotic fluid Sarah Palin would not only NOT have given birth on that plane but then decide once arriving in Anchorage, that she and Todd would drive right past the only hospital in the state (Providence) with a neonatal intensive care unit, where her doctor had privileges, and instead drive the sixty miles to a tiny hospital ill equipped to handle a pregnancy in crisis even though she met at least five high-risk obstetric criteria:

*she was 44 (anything above 40(some sources say 37 or 39) is considered high-risk due to maternal age;

* she was carrying a known high-risk infant;

*she was considered "grand multiparous" (five or more viable pregnancies);

* she was in labor at 35-36 weeks (anything before 37 weeks is considered pre term);

* her amniotic sac had been ruptured nearly 24 hours.

Go ahead my friends imagine what the odds would be that her doctor, who she must have contacted at some point because we know she met her at the Mat-Su Hospital, would not have DEMANDED that Palin immediately check in at Providence Hospital.  A million to one shot?  Five million to one?  How about a ZERO shot?  Simply put, NO doctor would have allowed their patient to continue on such a reckless course.

However this is Sarah Palin's story so we must sit tight as she takes on this "wild ride".
 
According to the Palin mythology they arrive at Mat-Su Hospital where CBJ meets them, induces labor and, according to Chuck Heath who claims to have been there, little Trig just "pops out".
 
Later KTUU interviews the Heaths holding the newborn in the hallway.
 

 
Which of course brings up another question about odds. 

What are the odds that a baby born a month premature, and which had its amniotic sack ruptured over twenty hours earlier, would not be in crisis?  I mean what are the odds that the Heaths could simply stand in the hallway holding what appears to be a perfectly healthy newborn, instead of viewing him through the plastic covering of an incubator?

But not only was the birth a rollicking success, but Palin was able to return to her duties as Governor only three days later.  What are the odds?

Now take minute to read this post carefully.  Even if you are not a conspiracy theorist and don't take much stock in the whole "fake pregnancy" controversy you have to admit that this is an amazing collection of unbelievable circumstances.

Now imagine that you are hearing this story for the first time and it is NOT about the ex-governor of Alaska.  Are you still able to suspend your disbelief?

Even if you allow that, against the odds, at least SOME of these incidents may have happened just the way they have been portrayed, it is extraordinarily difficult to swallow more than a few, and impossible to accept the whole lot.  Isn't it?

I encourage you to have your friends read this as well.  See what their take is on the information provided.  I have a feeling you will find many of them looking at you with wide eyes and saying "I had no idea!"

Add to this these pictures of a slim Sarah Palin standing next to Mercede holding a baby identified as Trig Palin only two weeks his birth...

..and the fact that when asked by the McCain campaign to provide proof of Trig's parentage Palin refused to produce a birth certificate, choosing instead to hide behind her daughter, and I am pretty convinced that most intelligent people will reach much the same conclusion that the majority of us have.

P.S. I have been asked several times by my visitors to lay out the timeline of Palin's pregnancy controversy for those who may be new to the issue.  I hope this satisfies that request.

P.S.S Okay by popular demand let me include the most recent piece of this convoluted story.

What are the odds that a baby born with badly malformed ears would transform into a baby with almost perfect ears only five months later?

How are those odds now?
Never let it be said I am not responsive to my visitors. You know, within reason.