That brings us to this year’s Republican field. Here are the current favorability numbers for 11 potential candidates who (i) have not denied their interest in the presidency and (ii) have been polled enough times for Talking Points Memo to have generated a LOESS regression trendline based on recent favorability surveys:
As compared to the other examples that we’ve looked at, there’s an awful lot of red in that chart — meaning, candidates whom the public views more unfavorably than favorably. Two exceptions are Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, who are slightly into positive territory. On the other hand, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich have especially poor ratings.
So it does look like Republicans have some legitimate reason to worry. In the previous five competitive primaries — excluding 2004 for the Republicans, when Mr. Bush won re-nomination uncontested — each party had at least two candidates whose net favorability ratings were in the positive double digits, meaning that their favorables bettered their unfavorables by at least 10 points. All five times, also, the nominee came from among one of the candidates in this group. Republicans have no such candidates at this point in time.
Meanwhile, the Republicans have two candidates in Ms. Palin and Mr. Gingirch whose net favorability ratings are actually in the double-digit negatives, something which since 2000 had only been true of Pat Buchanan and Al Sharpton.
Nate Silver is the Nostradamus of political polling. If he thinks the current Republican lineup is in serious trouble for 2012, than they better start turning their sights to 2016 when they might have a better chance of fooling the American people into voting for them again.
Of course as you may well imagine my favorite part of this little mathematical exercise is how completely out of the running a certain thin skinned half term ex-Governor is. Which essentially means that, as I have been saying all along, Sarah Palin is....
Love it...it gives me hope that this country is not, after all, full of small-minded selfish bigots. I am not thrilled with everything Obama, but at least the man has a brain and a heart.
ReplyDeleteI dropped this poll over at C4P, and the natives got restless. I think Palin is going to think long and hard about sitting 2012 out.
ReplyDeleteI believe sarah is just a media laughing stock. they retweet or reprint her fb pages mockingly "can u believe what the WGE posted/tweeted this time"?
ReplyDeleteAs 4:17am remarked, I'm not thrilled with all things Obama, however he shows more human attributes that the quitter twitter.
Cheryl.
In a Fox News Poll America Tells The GOP Their 2012 Candidates Suck
ReplyDeleteI can’t recall ever seeing a poll where the dissatisfaction with a group of political candidates was this high less than a year before the nominating process begins. This potential Republican 2012 field is so lackluster that it rivals the infamous 1988 Democratic field composed of Mike Dukakis, Jesse Jackson, Al Gore, Dick Gephardt, Paul Simon, Gary Hart, Bruce Babbit and Joe Biden for the dubious honor of being the worst group of modern era primary candidates ever put together.
http://www.politicususa.com/en/fox-news-2012-gop-suck
OT but important.
ReplyDeleteNEW Bill Moyers article at AlterNet. He talks about how people form their facts on their beliefs, which of course is totally backasswards. "Rather than facts driving beliefs, our beliefs can dictate the facts we chose to accept."
"These studies help to explain why America seems more and more unable to deal with reality. So many people inhabit a closed belief system on whose door they have hung the "Do Not Disturb" sign, that they pick and choose only those facts that will serve as building blocks for walling them off from uncomfortable truths."
I must say what a joy seeing Moyers this morning. A Must Read for everyone EVERYWHERE:
Bill Moyers: America Can't Deal With Reality -- We Must Be Exposed to the Truth, Even If It Hurts
http://www.alternet.org/world/149925/bill_moyers:_america_can't_deal_with_reality_--_we_must_be_exposed_to_the_truth,_even_if_it_hurts
Ron Paul is Destined to Stand on the Sidelines
ReplyDeleteThat he won the straw poll isn’t as significant as it might seem, given his victory last year. Salon calls him a “nonstarter” and his libertarian credentials certainly won’t help him win the hearts of the Republican base. To a chorus of boos, “the Donald” said at CPAC, “By the way, Ron Paul cannot get elected, I’m sorry to tell you.” He might be right, but this might well be said of every potential Republican candidate. As mentioned here yesterday by Jason Easley, the GOP candidate field has a huge “suckage” factor: in a recent FOX News poll, Ron Paul didn’t even get a mention. In fact, of those polled at CPAC, 43 percent said they wished for a stronger field of contenders. Ouch.
In the end, Ron Paul seems destined to remain on the sidelines; just as there aren’t enough of the base to elect Sarah Palin, there aren’t enough Libertarians to elect anybody.
http://www.politicususa.com/en/ron-paul-is-destined-to-stand-on-the-sidelines
Glenn Beck Goes Off The Deep End And Attacks Google
ReplyDeletehttp://www.politicususa.com/en/glenn-beck-google
From Politico: "“If Palin wants to win here, and she’ll have to to get the nomination, she’ll have to focus completely on fiscal issues,” speculated University of New Hampshire pollster Andrew Smith".
ReplyDeleteSo she hires a chief of staff and the first thing that comes out is a tweet attacking the budget using wrong numbers that they got from Brother Glenn. Honestly, she can't do anything right. And the only thing her worshipers can respond with are their only two, oft-repeated, weak comebacks a) she's getting picked on (she leaves no other options) or b) we're jealous of her (in reality, she and her groupies are jealous of the intelligent, dignified, successful 1st family).
Looking at these polling numbers, it is obvious that a HUGE ADVANTAGE for any GOP candidates is to distance themselves from her as much as possible. Any lost support from her base (who are not going to turn into to Democrats, so no worry) would be more than made up for by gaining undecided voters. The dummy Santorum missed his opportunity to take advantage of this by holding his ground. But there are smarter candidates that are figuring this out and once they start doing it, will enjoy a strong foothold in the race.
Tumult reigns at CPAC
ReplyDeleteBut there were few candidates at CPAC who stirred the crowd. If you needed any evidence of just how hungry CPAC attendees were for a strong alternative to Obama, look no further than Trump’s rock star welcome. The New York billionaire took a few hours off from printing money to deliver a speech that bashed Obama, Paul and just about everything associated with China. Still, even the excitement of The Donald’s magical moment was eclipsed by the dark cloud that hung over a conference cursed with dull speechmaking and intraparty battles.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49509.html
Ha, ha, she blew it BIGTIME and then she plastered it all over the media.
ReplyDeleteSarah Palin has turned to Facebook and Twitter to criticize President Obama's 2012 budget proposal. Here's what she wrote on Twitter: "Here's how minuscule the White House's $775 million a year cuts are: less than 1/10 of 1% of this year's budget deficit."
And on Facebook: "If you want to know how minuscule their proposed $775 million-a-year budget 'cuts' really are, please look at this chart. The proposed cuts are so insignificant - less than 1/10 of 1% of this year's $1.65 trillion budget deficit - that they are essentially invisible on the pie chart. That speaks volumes about today's budget."
Palin links in both places to a chart posted on The Blaze, Glenn Beck's website, five days ago - before the budget proposal came out. It uses an op-ed by White House Budget Director Jacob Lew to suggest that Mr. Obama was proposing to cut $775 million from the budget, and goes on to mock that amount as insignificant.
The problem? Lew wrote in his op-ed that he was only discussing "a small fraction of the scores of cuts" in the budget proposal, not the total proposed cuts, as a Democratic official pointed out to Ben Smith. Now, it's difficult to quantify the exact total of those first year cuts, and there is new spending that actually increases the deficit projection for 2012. But the cuts themselves are certainly more than Palin suggests: there are $2.5 billion in cuts to the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program alone, for example. Smith writes that the proposed cuts, in total, add up to about $75 billion.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20031894-503544.html
Palin is a washed up politician. All she needs is someone to wash her mouth out with a bar of soap to help stop the vile utterings that she makes bearing false witness against everyone ('cept Bristol).
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqhWhBGOEr8
The GOP will not be able to put together a competitive ticket, hence the extreme balking at committing to the race. There are no strong candidates, the party is too fractured, and there are no current potential candidates that are going to interest the undecided vote. The candidates emerging are all circus acts. In an effort to win more votes, the party has developed a problem of attracting nutcases and they have taken over and scared away a lot of their brighter voters. I'm not sure that it's possible for them to fix the problem that they're in.
ReplyDeleteSuch sad news... (wink, wink and a big SMUG smile!)
ReplyDeleteI mean... whatever it is you're doing GOP, it's working. I wouldn't change a thing.
Which essentially means that, as I have been saying all along, Sarah Palin is....
ReplyDelete------------------
Total BS. You've been saying all along she would run.
And yet somehow, the army of flying monkeys will believe this chart CLEARLY shows that Democrats are afraid of Palin. Seriously delusional people.
ReplyDeleteOh I think she is still planning to run. She is after all one of the most ignorant people on the planet.
ReplyDeleteI am just saying she is doomed. And yes I HAVE been saying that all along.
But hey, thanks for playing.
Yes!
ReplyDelete"Palin/Gingrich '12 and beyond"... the Dem... I mean Republican dream ticket.
(Don't pay attention to those skeletons in the closets. Just send $.)
I think her ego is so big, her megalomania is so strong, that she can't help but run, even though the stats don't show her doing anything beyond the ignorant yahoos she cultivates. You know how she loves spending Other People's Money to get what she wants. And don't forget, she's the hugest grifter we've seen nationally in this century, so far.
ReplyDeleteShe needs to be hospitalized for malignant narcissism. Or at least go back to Wasilla. Or is she persona non grata in AK yet?
After all the other Republican candidates mysteriously meet their doom, Sarah expects to be handed the nomination, or she'll launch a 3rd party candidacy, the Armageddon Party!
ReplyDeleteFolks, you read it here first. (Well, actually, it's the second time I've listed it in comments; you might have read it here before. I don't think I'll do it a third time.) Dems are not worried, at the national level, about any GOP challenger. It's keeping the Senate that is the worry.
ReplyDeleteThe GOP has no one for Pres., and Palin is the biggest no one of all.
Once they all realize that beating Obama will be tough, they will let her run as the sacrificial lamb.
ReplyDeleteI love Nate Silver but when I first read your post I was worried that she wouldn't be able to comprehend Nate's point. With her ignorance, she wouldn't get it. But, while its a long original article, Nate kept it pretty simple and didn't use too many big words.
ReplyDeleteLet me break it down for Sarah Simple - you LOSE. Nobody likes you. They like everybody else better.
Remember grade school and picking teams? Sarah, you got picked last.
Outrage Over Arizona Shootings Remains!
ReplyDelete...Now as Gabby Giffords struggles to re-learn to speak, and as parents of a nine-year old girl struggle to carry on with their lives without a nine-year old daughter, Sarah Palin focuses her efforts on the Presidential race of 2012. In case there is any doubt about what Sarah Palin knew or thought about anything she did that might inspire violence, consider excerpts from an Alaska Dispatch article from March 24, 2010. This article appeared under the section entitled “Palin Watch”, and came out the day before the interview of Ms. Giffords that predicted the importance of civility in our political rhetoric.
“Less than a week after ex-Gov. Sarah Palin and her Fox News Channel colleague Glenn Beck publicly called for right-wing “fringe elements” to tone down violent rhetoric in their opposition of the federal government, Sarah Palin tweeted: “Commonsense Conservatives & lovers of America: ‘Don’t Retreat, Instead — RELOAD!’ Pls see my Facebook page.” People who traveled to Palin’s Facebook page then found a call to action from her political action committee about races to “aim at” in upcoming House elections. This news is all over the web now, but the note features a map studded with miniature crosshairs set up by a weaponized linguistic trope. Read the note on the ex-governor’s Facebook page:
http://malialitman.wordpress.com/2011/02/15/outrage-over-arizona-shootings-remains/
Woman Who Says Todd Palin Sexed Her Also Says Trig Was Faked
ReplyDeleteThere exists a rumor that Todd Palin had sex with some Alaska massage lady. Is it true? Doesn’t matter. There was an opening in the media patchwork for a Todd Palin sex rumor, and somebody filled it. Luckily for Palin rumor bloggers, this masseuse is also willing to confirm another Palin rumor, that Sarah Palin never was pregnant with Trig, and Trig is therefore the spawn of Bristol Palin or some other form of extraterrestrial life. This massage lady says she gave a massage to Sarah Palin during this supposed pregnancy, but when she felt up her abdomen, there were exactly zero magic Downs-syndrome campaign props inside it. Wow, what a nice coincidence it is that this lady is able to give life to so many Palin rumors, and in such detail!
Your evidence:
According to Shailey, Sarah Palin NEVER once told any of the people at All About You Spa that she was pregnant, even though she remained a client almost up to the moment that she “gave birth.”
Sarah did not confess to Shailey that she was “with child.” even though she was asked specifically. (Nor did she tell ANY of the people who gave her a massage since NOT ONE of them knew until after her announcement.)
Sarah did not appear pregnant by looking at her in an unclothed state.
Even though she was given a thorough massage by an experienced, and licensed, masseuse (Who also had substantial experience with prenatal massage) nothing about Sarah’s body gave any indication that she was pregnant. (And don’t forget, she would have been between SIX TO SEVEN MONTHS PREGNANT at this time. )
Sarah had procedures during her “pregnancy” that could have been harmful to a fetus and did not once say anything to alert the employees to that possibility.
There you go. Alaska has really Won the Future by diversifying their fish, petroleum, and stupidity based economy with this whole Palin blog rumor industry. It’s an industry your Wonkette is happy to provide logistical support. Because when the Palins lose, we all win. Even, or especially, if it’s libel. [Immoral Minority]
http://wonkette.com/438054/woman-who-says-todd-palin-sexed-her-also-says-trig-was-faked
Drop the iceberg on her head and we can be done with her foolishness.
ReplyDeleteShe says what she wants, does what she wants and makes no apologies. And love her or hate her, you can't really argue with this: Politics as usual has never been Sarah Palin's style.
ReplyDelete"I wasn't wired to play that game," the former Alaska governor says in "Going Rogue," the memoir whose title reflects her affinity for going her own way.
As she weighs whether to seek the presidency, it's hard not to wonder: Do the old tenets of White House campaigns apply to someone who has broken virtually every rule in modern-day American politicking? Can she bypass conventional politics and succeed? Will she even try?
http://www.bakersfieldnow.com/news/national/116230334.html
The Fall of Sarah Palin.
ReplyDeleteHow did such a thing happen? It's just a crazy theory, but maybe there is something less than a perfect correlation between getting media exposure and convincing people that you ought to be the president of the United States, particularly when the exposure you get consists largely of things like feuding with your daughter's baby-daddy.
When we look back at the odd spectacle that was Sarah Palin, it will probably be the Gabrielle Giffords shooting that stands as the moment when even Republicans decided that this person should never be president. Palin's appalling response, in which instead of acting statesmanlike she acted as though she was the real victim and whined about the "blood libel" committed against her, made her true nature nearly impossible to deny.
So a Sarah Palin presidency seems like one thing we don't have to worry about. For the moment, anyway -- after all, she's only 47, which means she could be a contender in every election from now to 2036.
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/tapped_archive?month=02&year=2011&base_name=the_fall_of_sarah_palin
If it looks like Obama is too strong to win a second term, you won't see the GOP throwing away a viable 2016 candidate in 2012. So they won't put Huckabee or Romney on the ticket. You'll see one of the others, just for show. If they want to kill the teabaggers, they might put up Palin just so she loses and the GOP can shut them up permanently. There is risk in that. She might gain more base. But she also might lose some and further alienate others. It might be worth the risk.
ReplyDeleteHe returns -and he's not backing down on the case to be made!!
ReplyDeletehttp://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2011/02/quote-for-the-day-3.html
Palin has two cards she plays in her limited nodus operandi. The dominant calculated behavior is to undermine, misinform and misrepresent her opponents demonizing them with an extra spin to manipulate fear to terror of her fictitious demon other. Then she positions herself as the opposite, a saint and savior from the fictional villains.
ReplyDeleteHer second strategy is glorified claims of Christian virtues. However her dominant ploys above eradicate her personal myth of Christian virtues as commented bearing false witness against others. Her habitual focus to control false witness of others predictably has the consequence she is stupid incapable of comprehending basic information.
In time people see through the smoke and mirrors.
These results show that some Republicans are coming to their senses and Sarah's numbers will keep spiraling down. The last 2 years have given everyone a chance to get a good look at her and she will never have large, widespread support... not even enough to make her worthy as a VP candidate again. Her handlers have misinterpreted most infatuation for her as interest instead of the entertainment most people see her as. But she'll hold out to make as much $ as possible.
ReplyDelete7:17 Her strategy is not having one. She lacks ambition and smarts.
ReplyDeleteI find it amusing that not one of the doofuses listed here have declared that they are running yet. None of them wants to be the 2012 Teabaglican sacrificial lamb.
ReplyDeleteI'm stocking up on popcorn. This is going to be fun.
Anon 5:28. Thank you for posting the important insight Moyers addressed.
ReplyDeleteThere are personalities that even manufacture facts to "prove" their thoughts or beliefs are "right" outright refusing to be open to concrete facts. They can't cope with reality nor their discomfort.
Damn, this fits our little Sarah Quittypant to a T!
ReplyDeleteMalignant narcissism usually manifests at a very young age even though it never becomes an official diagnosis until adulthood because this is how the grand poo-bahs of psychology play the game of labeling.
There is a creature that exists in human form that has become distinctly different than those of us who do struggle against selfishness. In a very deliberate and conscious way these people have made a decision to not fight against their selfish impulses. They have embraced them. They have found ways to completely justify them. They are quite proud of their freedom to do anything they want to anyone they want. They may be quietly smug about it or openly boastful; nevertheless, they're proud of their ability to get their way.
They see themselves as set apart from mere humanity. They distance themselves from the human race by setting themselves apart from and above them. They do this by word and by action. They even usurp the very throne of God Himself as they position themselves as god over all they survey. They reserve to themselves the right to define reality to all in their domain. All this results in the train of woe that follows from the human embodiment of evil.
http://narcissists-suck.blogspot.com/2009/03/malignant-narcissism-brief-overview.html
"Just send $."
ReplyDelete... and buy my books, hire me to speak, pay for my defense (just in case I didn't do anything wrong). I'll have a full product line when my trademark goes through. I have expenses, bills to pay. False idols aren't cheap and I need your spare change more than you. After all, the less you have, the less big government can take so I'm doing you a favor.
Anon@6:05 am
ReplyDeleteSpot on. The GOP knows that there is no one to run this time around. The feet dragging is painfully obvious. Unless the president screws up bigtime between now and 2012 or we see the economy take a big nose dive he will be hard to beat. Who will be the sacrificial lamb? My guess is Romney.
I do think SP will throw her hat into the ring but will end her run when the race starts to show a strong front runner. she's in it for the money and the attention. The only way she wins is if she bows out 'gracefully'. Then I believe she'll spend her time on the religious circuit as a pawn of Franklin Graham. Big money there.
So which candidate is willing to get humiliated? Such a shame, they're all such nice people.
ReplyDeleteDems learned their lesson with the Bush elections and got their act together. The only hope for the GOP is for Dem. apathy.
Can you imagine if Sarah President, and she have to face a room full with reporters ready to ask her tough questions, during a press comference.
ReplyDeletesarah´s yapping since ´08 has brought down every Republican Presidential hopefuls favorability rating.
ReplyDeleteThe favorability rating of every hopeful who starts calling sarah out on her BS will markedly improve.
Every conservative I know is sick of her and her bots. It is clearly in their best interest for our country to fail.
Arseholes, the lot of them.
Sarah, take some good advice and stay home and take care of your kids and your grandkids. Do it for them, for once in your life help your trailer trash family learn some morals and try to be decent human beings.
ReplyDeleteBristol is so fucked up now that she needs an intervention. All that sex and all those babies plus facial surgeries has made her one hell of an object of sympathy. She is pathetic in her hate of everything American and will likely end up like Lindsey Lohan.
I think this is funny as hell:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.palin4pres2012.com/
"Palin 2012 Website Closing & Will Endorse Ron Paul
"February 4, 2011: For immediate release - click here to download this important press release in Microsoft Word format and distribute freely."
Older_Wiser
Those who think these poll numbers will dissuade her from running don't know our Sarah. Sarah lives in an alternate reality, where all things bend to her will. The scary thing is, her delusions have been reinforced by success. What uneducated idiot gets herself appointed chairman of Alaska's Oil and Gas Commission? What mayor who has shown herself to be an administrative disaster gets herself elected governor of her state? What governor with less than 2 years on the job gets herself picked for her party's VP candidate? Given that track record, why shouldn't she expect to succeed?
ReplyDeleteThis is a woman who convinced the world her daughter wasn't pregnant and that she herself was pregnant. She fiddled the birthdates of her two grandsons and then sent her obviously pregnant (again) daughter on DWTS. Someone would have to be insane to think they could get away with that, but she did.
It ain't over till the fat lady sings and Sarah is behind bars.
I so love that fucking smug expression on toast.
ReplyDeleteJoking aside, I think it is everyone's best interest for '12 to have worthy opponents able to intelligently debate what they stand for. So here's some more advice for the GOP: The ticket with the best chance to win back voters will be one that can ignore FOX, hate radio entertainers, and the inpinging fringe, and who understands the REAL foundations of the party, sticks to these and focuses on how they fit in with the issues of today.
ReplyDeleteWe have to pay attention to every single race being run in 2012.
ReplyDeleteWe need to take back the majority in House, get a larger majority in the Senate (no Blue Dog, Conserv Dems, thank you very much), and ensure we have a Democratic President.
Thanks to the Tea Baggers who got elected and their chummy GOP fellows, we will have a lot of damage to clean up, which is saying a lot because we still haven't managed to recover from the Bush-Cheney years.
Please, everyone who loves or even likes this blog, vote for progressive candidates in 2012 and actively campaign against the TP/GOP. Otherwise, we may not have a country we recognize as America.
Never mind, her blog is back up.
ReplyDeleteMeet the Sideshow Oddities and Jokes Who Make Up The 2012 GOP Field
ReplyDeleteAlthough the 2012 general election is over a year-and-a-half away, Republican presidential hopefuls are beginning to show themselves to be little more than sideshow oddities and jokes on the political landscape. It doesn’t matter if it is the quitter-governor Sarah Palin, preacher Mike Huckabee, or reality show personality Donald Trump, the field represents the worst America has to offer. The Republican hopefuls have one thing in common, and that is their abject hatred of Barack Obama.
http://www.politicususa.com/en/2012-gop-field
"the REAL foundations of the party"
ReplyDeleteThat would be from before the religious right got involved and made right-to-life the GOP's rallying issue.
The way it will work is like this: If Obama looks like a sure win, Sarah or one of these others will be the sacrificial lamb. If Obama looks beatable, Jeb Bush will be rolled out. The Bush crime family has been running the show including the hits since WWII.
ReplyDeleteNews is out that Jason Reicher is no longer part of Team Palin
ReplyDeleteListening to MSNBC on sat radio this afternoon and I heard one male voice summarizing Nate's article - data shows that Sarah Palin is the bottom of the barrel. I almost drove off the road laughing. And he kept repeating it, the surveys show that Palin is at the bottom of the barrel.
ReplyDeleteThere may be a sleeper GOP candidate for prez. Gary Johnson. He is liberal enough to get Independents and Dems votes. I'm actually hoping for a Pain candidacy so we can watch her writhe in agony.
ReplyDelete