Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
As I am sure many of you remember I wrote about Professor Lichtmann and his formula on Tuesday.I am still standing on my soapbox and preaching that we buckle down and make damn sure that Obama gets reelected, but it is nice to know that there is this formula out there which predicts he will succeed.
Allan Lichtman and I go way back - back to 2006 where I met him at a Metro station while he was campaigning for the U.S. Senate nomination. I volunteered for him in the primary election, and still have the t-shirt. I hope he is right that Obama will be re-elected, but there are two deep reasons why I believe "this time is different."
ReplyDelete1)The economic situation, which is not likely to be better in any substantial degree by the time of the election. In a recent Financial Times, columnist Martin Wolf's title is "The Great Contraction: This is no ordinary recession."
2)Obama is a Negro, to use the term that was polite when I was in grade school. There are a substantial number of people who still mentally, and among themselves, use the impolite term that is similar to this word. The impact of racial resentment is, I think, being underestimated by many.
Put these two factors together and I am pessimistic about Obama's re-election.
O/T, Palin's going to South Korea to make a speech. Or is it North Korea?
ReplyDeleteThe GOP are so self serving to their co operate masters and not the people,even the Teabaggers freshmen are pushing legislation in tha interestof their big backers.
ReplyDeleteWe have to get out there and kick the bastards out of House and Senate.
While Bohner did not agree to the 7th for the President to address both houses, I think it was very shrewd of the President, as now the candidates will have to address the jobs situation at the debate and Tuesday there will be more young people who will hear what the President have to say.
Into the trenches, there is abattle to win!
One thing that keeps popping up. Sarah did NOT purchase campaign clothes herself. To continue to feed that story makes all else incredible. The people who were in charge of wardrobe have confirmed this.
ReplyDeleteIt's much easier to run with a statement when you find no hindrance than be truthful.
Think of all the lies out there.
One other thing he has for him: He isn't doing well in the polls BUT...BUT...people, when polled, prefer his policies to the GOP policies...ALWAYS...People don't want lower taxes for the rich, they don't want to do away with Social Security and Medicare, they don't want unchecked pollution by corporations, they don't want what the GOP is selling...That's another thing he has...
ReplyDeleteEnvironmentalists need to shut the %$#% up.
ReplyDeleteTheyre worse than neo feminists whom Susan B A and crew would spit at.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0811/Former_Obama_aide_to_protest_outside_the_White_House.html#.Tl7cYZGYbC4.facebook
Anon 3:57
ReplyDeleteShe did not buy the clothes but she sure as hell stole them as she did not pay for them and is still wearing them !
Nate Silver disagrees.
ReplyDeletehttp://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/31/despite-keys-obama-is-no-lock/
These predictions make me nervous. I don't think that we can take anything for granted, including the intelligence of the American voters. As you said in an earlier post Gryphen, we need to get out and work for President Obama, to help ensure his reelection. He is not perfect, but he has done an incredible job in a really lousy situation. I don't trust the R's and the Diebold machines. We need to do our part.
ReplyDelete@4:32 AM
ReplyDeleteDipshits like you need to STFU.
The "13 keys" is fine, and might be somewhat comforting, but people need to get out and VOTE.
ReplyDelete@5:39 AM
ReplyDeleteNo shit. But republicans aren't guaranteed a win either. Charlie Cook said the 2012 presidential election is the republican party's to lose. Meaning their nominee could end up running a shitty campaign and end up losing anyway.
@3:57 AM
ReplyDelete$arah Palin knew the clothes were expensive. She didn't even return all of them. She is still a liar, a diva, and a bitch.
Nate Silver is pretty good too and he is not so certain.
ReplyDeleteGryphen please don't contribute to democrats feeling arrogant and cocksure.
Anon 3:57 you're a fucking retard. no one is talking about sarah's shopping spree you freak. your obsession with defending sarah with illogical broken english is pathetic. sarah STOLE clothes from the RNC donors. this is fact. accept it loser.
ReplyDeleteyou're the same retarded troll stalker who posts non-stop delusional fantasies in every thread. i know it. everyone knows it. now GTFO and STFU.
Sarah stole the clothes the RNC paid for. She went on a wild $250,000 shopping spree with her grifter family of thieves. Why is this fact so hard for you to accept? Loser.
When Obama wins reelection, all the incredulous racists should pick up and move to Norway.
ReplyDeleteMOE RONS
ReplyDeleteNO WAY Obama gets reelected with numbers like these:
The White House on Thursday downgraded its outlook for the economy, forecasting unemployment could average 9% in 2012 and growth could be slower than expected for several years.
Growth could slow to 1.6% in 2011, down from the 3.1% forecast in February, the administration said.
The revised outlook comes a week before President Barack Obama is set to propose a new plan aimed at jump-starting job growth and cutting the deficit. About 14 million Americans are out of work and the jobless rate stands at 9.1%, numbers that have the potential to dog Mr. Obama's re-election bid.
In its annual midyear economic review, the White House said the gloomy numbers are a result of deteriorating conditions over the summer. But officials said they weren't predicting another downturn.
"We are not forecasting a double-dip recession," said Katharine Abraham, a member of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, on a call with reporters.
In July, the government said gross domestic product barely grew in the first half of the year and that the recession of 2008 and 2009 was deeper than previously thought. Since then, weak economic data ranging from manufacturing to employment has stirred fears the economy could again fall into recession. The August jobs report, due Friday, will be a key indicator to watch.
Mr Boenner, now that you got your "date" for the Republican Circus, after your vacation, Where are the jobs YOU promised?
ReplyDeleteTo the poster anonymous @1:08
Didn't catch much after "Moe- Rons" comment, what, exactly is your point?
What have the Republicans done, time and time again, to meet the President of the United States, Commander in Chief, Barack Hussein Obama, half way on working on any issue at all? Who's been a steady leader since he took office?
Mr Orange Cheetoes Eating, Sir Weepy Speaker of the House, Boehner?
Who played out the debt cieling non issue up to the last minute, causing the downgrade by Standard and Poors?
I don't see President Barack Obama stomping his feet and having hissy fits if he doesn't get his way, just the Republicans- Why is that?