As he prepares for his third State of the Union address--and, he hopes, not his last--Barack Obama's likelihood of reelection has soared in the last few days to 56.8 percent, the highest it has been since last July. This movement correlates with Newt Gingrich's increased likelihood of gaining the Republican nomination, now at 29.7 percent, up from about 5 percent. This upward trend also correlates with a simultaneous downward movement of Mitt Romney's likelihood of winning the presidency if he wins the nomination, now at 44.0, down from about 48 percent. We utilize prediction market data for these likelihoods.
In short, the markets think Obama is more likely to defeat Gingrich than Romney, so when the former speaker's fortunes elevate, so do the president's.
The numbers tell the story.
Personally I think that Obama can beat either Gingrich OR Romney.
If the nominee were Gingrich it would be a much easier contest.
And if it were Gingrich, and he desperately added Palin to bring in the evangelicals, Obama could phone it in and still wipe the floor with him.
After '08 and her ever-increasing psychoses, drug use, or whatever the HELL is responsible for her litany of videos and soundbites, no Republican in their right mInd is going to call on her for anything. Death knell, and they all know it. And WE all know she can't jump in the race for obvious reasons! Isn't that right, Bitch Queen?
ReplyDeleteObama 2012!
ReplyDeleteThe GOP so deserve this mess. It's where they're at, so why should they get to come along and pretend to be the "has its act together party" when they are anything but?
ReplyDeleteThe fact that Sarah Palin factors into this story is just icing on the cake. I hope the harpy keeps at it until Newt realizes his error. Association with her is NOT a good thing, Newt! Fools, both of you.
I have been saying all along that what we have been missing is our President. Bring him into the story and as you said, Gryphen, he will mop the floor with these people. I think we will all just breathe a sigh of relief when he is up there with whomever is the Republican nominee. Sanity will then finally prevail, and these idiots will be seen for what they are truly are.
I think Independents will vote for him. I think young people will vote for him. I think most minorities will vote for him. I think most middle class people (the non-racists) will vote for him. I think workers will vote for him. I think women will vote for him. The list goes on and on. SANITY WILL PREVAIL.
I'm a bit nervous about the SOTU after Sullivan's advise to ingest caffeine before watching. However, I don't doubt that it will become increasingly clear that Pres. Obama deserves a 2nd term and that the alternative is unthinkable.
ReplyDeleteFor anyone who doesn't get emails from the Obama team, the SOTU can be watched online and there are several opportunities to ask questions.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/state-of-the-union-2012?utm_source=email143&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=sotu
I seriously doubt that Gingrich would choose the paylump for veep, which is a damn shame. Just imagine the schadenfreude we would all enjoy while watching the hideously delicious unravelling of the paylump's bizarre facade!! I doubt the mainstream media would give her a free pass this time. The bitch would finally be properly vetted (and her wig could be taken TO the vet :)
ReplyDeleteOh well. We'll just have to be patient and watch the paylump slowly self-destruct whilst vainly attempting to garner attention.
She is looking very rough these days. Btw, where is Trig?
ReplyDeleteAnyone remember William E Miller?
ReplyDeleteNo? His political career, after fourteen years in the House, ended with his being Goldwater's running mate. The names of volunteers to run w/ Gingrich is likely to begin as a short list. It's sure to be political suicide.
I don't think Gringrich will win the Repub nomination...he's too much of a proven asshole.
ReplyDeletePresident Obama will win AGAIN and I can hardly wait to mark my ballot for him.
Why is there any question if President Obama should be re-elected? The only debates we have seen are the GOP debates. It's a one sided picture.
ReplyDeleteMost men would not put their wife out on the chopping block like Newt has. If he gets the GOP nomination then she's a potential first lady. Then it is really going to get ugly.
It's one thing to be a suspected home wrecker and another to be a documented home wrecker.
As an anti-fan of Mr. Obama's job performance, I am at a loss as to who I will waste my vote on, but it certainly won't be any of the nutty Republicans/Teabagger would-be theocrats. Maybe a Green? Maybe Rocky Anderson? I don't know.
ReplyDeleteThis is where theocracy leads:
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/facebook/man-faces-five-years-for-8216god-does-not-exist-facebook-post/7796
Anonymous at 2:39 PM said...
ReplyDeleteWhy is there any question if President Obama should be re-elected? The only debates we have seen are the GOP debates. It's a one sided picture.
Here's why.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/obama-to-give-banks-mortgage-get-out-of-jail-almost-free-card-pressures-state-attorneys-generals-to-capitulate.html
The inmates at the Asylum are giddy with excitement that Ex Gov Baldy is suppose to critique the President's SOTU address tonight!
ReplyDeleteI can't imagine if she will be in any kind of shape after her last two bizarre appearances!
Baldy is pretty much operating on fumes at this point! I mean really what else can this idiot say!
Holy Moly Boo Boly! Gov Baldy is going to call President Obama the "N" word tonight ya'll!
You read it here first!
That's pretty much the only thing she can do...unlessssss....instead of her usual dirty coonskin cap...she's going to wear her real HAIR!
Well the few scraps that she has left will be held together by a couple of barettes! Picture Baldy looking like Pebbles Flinstone...except UGLIER!
And as far as clothes...she's going to drag out that red robe carpet thing she wore over the holidays and when the interview starts...she's going to take it off!
And then the camera pans back and she's sitting there butt ass naked in front of the roaring fireplace and a pile of animal bones are sitting in the corner! And all we see is her bones protruding from her emaciated collar bone, her neck is all...wrinkled and flapping! Boobs...looking like an elephants knees!
Now that's how you go out! Forget the Britney Spears thing....you know...shaving her head...attacking cars with umbrellas...Baldy is literally going to show her ASS on national television! Can you imagine the Press she would get for this stunt!!
Go for it Baldy! It's your last chance to make a difference in this Presidential race! Your name will be on everyone's lips for days on end! I dare YOU! LOL!!!!
Gingrich has ahown how easy it is to beat Mitt Romney. Either one will be a cakewalk , but I think perhaps Mittens is much easier prey. Besides the flip flopping in just about every imaginable issue, Romney has painted himself into a very right wing little corner with his positions on immigration , personhood, taxes, starting a war with Iran, and ultimately his tax returns.
ReplyDeleteMitt is the walking talking embodiment of not the one percent, but the 0.006 percent, who does not create jobs or invest in America with his vast wealth but parks it offshore in the "European Socialist" tax havens of Switzerland , Luxembourg , Iand Ireland. How can he be the President of a country he doesn't even invest in? Shit, with that kind of money why does even want to??.. Think about that, then wonder about the massive Daddy complex he must have.
I just heard the fill in host on the Michael Savage show predict that if Newt gets the nomination then numerous women will start coming out of the woodwork. Interesting.
ReplyDeleteThe party that for 40 years preached family values now wants Gingrich to be its nominee. But the same party, that for the same 40 years also preached anti-elitism (especially anti- east coast, educated elitism), also wants Romney to be its nominee. The irony of this political, religious, and intellectual schizophrenia is beyond hilarious.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, I'm not counting Gingrich out. He has an uncanny ability to incite demagoguery through bomb-throwing lies and artfully delivered verbal venom. Both of these things wildly stoke the adrenals of his rightie audiences, for whom hate is obviously an aphrodesiac. Thus Gingrich may ultimately be able to ignite the 99% portion of the republican party like no one else on the horizon.
As the republican 1% plot their responses behind the curtain, the entire party is play-casting Obama's description of American as a battle-ground between the haves versus the have-nots. It's like a surreal – yet simultaneously comical – movie, a back-drop better than anything the democrats could have imagined.
At this point the republican primary seems to be an all-out race between AIPAC, the evangelicals, and Rome, on the one hand (Gingrich), and Salt Lake City on the other hand (Romney). I'm betting the former will win out.
BTW: does anyone else find it beyond ironic that Romney's father, who was born in Mexico to a father who had previously RENOUNCED his American citizenship (to escape criminal bigamy charges), ran for president in 1968 – and not a word was spoken by any republican about him being foreign-born??? By the way, there is no proof that I have found that George Romney's father ever regained his American citizenship. Thus, the argument can be made that Mitt Romney is an American-born child of a foreign citizen. Think about it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Romney
http://www.newswithviews.com/Devvy/kidd520.htm
As for one of the sources of some of Romney's extensive moolah, I found this article very interesting:
http://www.moneyteachers.org/Mormonmafia.html
must watch John king interview nancy pelosi today, she's got dirt on newt. :) and she stressed that he will NOT be president.
ReplyDeleteI wish we had a good choice.
ReplyDeletehttp://whowhatwhy.com/2012/01/04/obama-%E2%80%9Cyes-i%E2%80%99m-in-a-can%E2%80%9D/
If the fat leprechaun gets elected, I am SO leaving the country...
ReplyDeleteSlightly off topic, but it has just occurred to me: why aren't the birthed wackadoodles using the ineligible card on Mittens? His father was born in Mexico (and actually ran for President as a Republican)... how was that allowed to slide? Oh, never mind, Mitt's white.
The Republicans made a very big mistake in having so many debates as they have shown the weaknesses rather than the strengths of each candidate.
ReplyDeleteNewt, for those who are to young to remember the 1980's and 90's is a very nasty piece of work.
I suspect that as he gets closer to what he sees as his due, he will become even nastier.
He is also a practiced politician who knows how to use words to move his audience. He would be no pushover and he would have tons of money at his disposal.
Credit where credit is due: I trust Obama will be sending a big bouquet of flowers to Newt, not to mention Baldy & the rest of the TeaBagger Twits, for so badly wounding the one candidate who might have had a ghost of a prayer in the general election.
ReplyDeleteVirginia Voter said..."Gingrich has ahown how easy it is to beat Mitt Romney. Either one will be a cakewalk , but I think perhaps Mittens is much easier prey."
ReplyDeleteOr as easy as Gingrich. But yeah, Swiss Mitt is looking very rattled right now in his SOTU response.
I still can't get over the fact that the GOP frontrunners are two guys named Newt and Mitt. And these people have the nerve to make fun of our president's strong, masculine name?
ReplyDeleteAs for "Gov. Dirty Wig" the mean girl is out, she will not be put back in the closet.
ReplyDeleteShe looks terrible these days,sexy is dead ,mean is in.
There is a saying my mother used to say, when there was no other way to describe a dirty, mean, disgusting person
"When Grinch was born, his Mother should have kept the after birth and thrown away the baby" sounds as if this might have been a good plan.
newt/paul
ReplyDelete