U.S. officials have reportedly warned Israel that Saudi Arabia will support Iran should the Jewish state launch an attack on Tehran. Analysts said Israel was keen to strike before Iran moves its uranium enrichment facilities, crucial to the development of nuclear weapons, to the heavily fortified Fordow facility.
Yedioth Ahronoth said American officials passed to Israel a message from Riyadh that reads: "Saudi Arabia would shoot down any Israeli aircraft in its airspace on their way to Iran." Saudi Arabia has refused to recognise Israel since the state was founded in 1948.
In 2010, Saudi Arabia's UK envoy, Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf, said: "It is illogical to allow the Israeli occupying force, with whom Saudi Arabia has no relations whatsoever, to use its airspace."
Many on the Republican side have been beating the drums of war again (Because war is so good for their Military-Industrial Complex overlords.), and suggesting that if America does not move against Iran soon Israel might force our hand.
Clearly that is much less likely unless Israel also wants to declare war on Saudi Arabia, a move that oil addicted Americans would NEVER endorse.
Of course if the Israelis are determined to start a war that could ultimately force them into a conflict with Muslim armies from a number of nearby countries, they might still find a route through Jordan and Iraq. However without White House support that seems far from likely.
All Americans are oil-addicted. Oil is the world, like it or not
ReplyDeleteI flew F16's out of Incirlic, Turkey. Your ignorance about alternative routes to Iran is staggering as is you r ignorance of the current relationsship between Israel and Azerbagian that borders Iran.
ReplyDeletePut simply, crossing Saudi Airspace may be the easiest way to get to Iran but it's not the only way and most likely not the route the Israeli's would take which would be through Southern Syria, Iraq, whose air defense is crippled, and into Azerbajian which shares Israel's goal of stopping Iranian hegemony in the region and which Israel supplied $1.6b of sophisticated military hardware for the former soviet satellite's defense as well as recourses to be used in the event Israel had to launch a strike from Azerbagian.
Niced try. Thoroughly amatuerish and absent of critical variables but it was a good try to make a case out of ignorance about this issue.
Aren't.we.just.a.little.critical....yes,anyone.with.eyes.and.a.little.flight.knowledge.sees.there.are.alternative.routes....Maybe.what.you.missed.is.the.influence.of.Saudia.Arabia.on.the.
Deletewar.mongers...Maybe.that.might.bring.a.little.
more.objective.thinking.into.play....Maybe.not.considering.all.the.Bible.thumpers....No,I.am.not.trying.to.make.a.statement.with.the.punctuation....My.spacebar.chooses.not.to.work.on.occasion.after.a.caffeine.attack.last.week.
It depends on your definition of critical. Your Guru's blog was a transparent attempt to suggest, with obvious glee, that Israel's mission to take out any Iranian reactors would be severely compromised by a threat to take countermeasurs against any tactical aircraft in its airspace.
DeleteAdditionally, your premise that anyone with "a little knowledge" etc; is wrong. I'm assuming you believe you possess a little knowledge--I would describe it as minuscule--and yet I would bet that you did not know the U.S. will almost certainly establish a no-fly zone over Syria, which, as I said, would permit Israeli tactical aricraft to cross southern Syria and Irac, which I'm equally sure you did not knw the extent to which its air defense capability has been compromised. I am most sure, however, that you are or were entirely clueless about the very tight alliance between Israel and Azerbagian, which lies on Iran's border, and no doubt, if the Saudis do attempt to shoot down Israeli aircraft--which they won't because of the no-fly zone--will serve as an excellent base for the Israeli's to execute sorties.
What precisely, "biblethumping" has to do with basic tactical strategy is beyond me but I'm sure in your addled brain it's a critical variable right up there with the preening of the Iranians and Saudis.
Finally, Israel will not let the U.S. dictate it's national security issues much longer, particularly since you have an administration it must deal with that refuses to acknowledge Jeruselam as it's capital and which has shown a startling amateurishness in critical matters of intelligence--like boasting it had seized computers belonging to Osama.
The bottom line: Israel will attack with or without the consent of the U.S, at a time of its own chooosing and Obama will not know about it until after the attack is underway.
So, Israel is using American taxpayer dollars to bribe Syria? Those people are not American friends.
ReplyDelete>>Israeli's would take which would be through Southern Syria, Iraq, whose air defense is crippled, and into Azerbajian which shares Israel's goal of stopping Iranian hegemony in the region and which Israel supplied $1.6b of sophisticated military hardware>>
Hey Anon at 3:35, read the link before you pop off. If the Israeli's think they can just bomb Iran and face no one else, they are sadly mistaken. Saudi Arabia is just one of the many who will bomb the shit out of them. I seriously doubt Jordan would let them fly over their country either and who knows what Iraq will do. Turkey won't stand for any Syrian interference after they shot down one of their jets last month.
ReplyDeleteBy the way Incirlik is spelled with a k not a c. Also, it's spelled Azerbaijan (spell check is your pal)
Where did I say they would be engaged in a unilateral war against Iran without the possibility of another nation aligning with Iran.
DeleteThank you for the spell check, it's about as relevant as your doubts and far less consequential than your ignorance about Ira's air defense capabilities.
Lets's look at some basics: Israel would attempot to strike ractors at Natanz, Esfahan, and Arak simultaneously requiring 90 tactical fighters, and including reliable support,136 would be needed. Israel has a total of “around 350 fighter jets, a larger aerial combat force than Britain and Germany. Are you under the impression the 214 tactical jets not involved in an invasion would remain on the ground? Dumb question. You had no idea of the size and operational capabilities of the Israeli Air Force.
As to the threat of Iraq, it is common knowledge in the DOD, CIA, and in the White House, that thee route over Iraq would be the most direct and likely, defense analysts say, because Iraq effectively has no air defenses and the United States, after its December withdrawal, no longer has the obligation to defend Iraqi skies.
So much for your fears about Iraqi air defense: it has NONE.
Aprevalent misconception is that hindering any unilateral attack by Israel would be the necessity of refueling by USAF KC135s. However,
while 12 such tankers would probaly be needed for such a mission, the Israeli Air Force has to a degree mitigated that problem by mastering something called "buddy refueling"--a process wherby the drop tanks on F-15's are used to supply fuel to shorter range F16's. At the same the Israeli's have been snapping up every old, discarded Boeing 707 airliner and converting them to tankers. The latest intelligence suggests Israel has reconfigured at least eight or nine such aircraft realizing it would be held hostage to America without its own capacity to refuel its fighters on long-haul sorties.
Another misconception is that an Israeli strike would only set back Iranian nuclear ambitions a year but if it strikes before the sites are hardened, the setback could be five years.
There are numerous other tsctical issues. Hezbollah has 50,000 missiles supplied by Iran but there's no guarantee they would become involved in any war with Israel because of the long-term implications. Why? There is no guarantee from Iran that if Hezbollah exhjausts its supply of those missiles Iran will replenish them.
Finally, not surprisingly, Gryphen, clearly totally ignorant about the real facts about Syria's air defense capababilities assume it presents a grave threat to Israel or any NATO aircraft. The fat of the matter is that while Syria has about 200 Mig-21's nobody really knows how operational they are and Syria has next to no actual recent combat experience in the past 30 years. Five years ago, Israel attacked a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor and without basically any effort by the Syrians to stop them.
And for what's it worth, even if Syria is now in possession Russia's S400 Air Defense system, such a system is not a turn-key proposition. Proficiency takes time and the Russian's are notorious for it's lasck of training and support to customers. A Syrian pilot-even one flying the MIG 29 but without the degree of training an Israeli F-15 or f-16 pilot would get would be toe-tagged the moment he put his foot on the ladder.
Finally, Israel has faced a much more formideable enemy and survived. Amnyone who thinks they are going to sit back when both Syria and Iran are lusting for its extinction is ignorant to the risks and possible consequences the Israelis will be willing to incur to avoid another holocaust. Though regrettable, it would be willing to sacrifice 100,000 of its citizens to annihilate the threat from Syria and Iran which it clearly has the capability of doing.
Longtime reader, not a tinfoil hat wearer.
ReplyDeleteThe WH might not support war with Iran but they've been actively preparing for the possibility for at least a year.
Please don't publish my comment. I should've kept my comments to myself. TIA.
ReplyDeleteThat is kinda hard when everybody identifies themselves as "anonymous."
DeleteHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!! Hey BiBi, choke on that you war-mongering nut-bag.
ReplyDeleteThe Israelis are thugs. It is America's shame that we sink so much treasure into supporting them.
ReplyDeleteRemember the USS Liberty.
Never forgive. Never forget.
They would turn on us in a second, done it before.
It's funny because Iran is in fact their "existential enemy" and they well know it (uh, Saudi Arabia, that is). This is why the Sauds in the past have so often cooperated with Israel, to the point where this decision no doubt surprises Nuttyyahoo (I think that's the correct spelling for the name of Israel's prime minister). Starkest evidence yet this nonsensical noise has gone much too far...
ReplyDeleteAt this point, If anything happens in the middle east my thoughts are withdraw completely, let them fight it out amongst themselves and don't spend a dime helping them recover when the dust settles. .
ReplyDeleteI get so confused about all this mideast war stuff! All I know is that the Republicans want us in more which we cannot afford.
ReplyDeleteWhat is it that Sarah Palin and her ilk want us to protect over there by going to war? (religious affiliated, I think') Anything she is in favor of, I'm NOT!!
Can anyone explain quickly and easily?
/s/ Ignorant about the mideast!
11:21, the rwnj's and the evangelicals (but I repeat myself) want Israel to obliterate all their neighbors, so that all the Jewish people in the world go back to Israel, then (in their delusional thinking) God will destroy the world and the evangelicals will all be raptured to heaven.
ReplyDeleteMy apologies to Gryohen: he was touting the Saudi Air Force as a hindrance to Israel and I emphacized the relatively impotency of the Syrian threat.
ReplyDeleteAs to Saudi Arabia. Despite their threats to shoot down Israeli aircraft, there's little chance that could happen.
First, the Israeli's are highly unlikely to cross the heart of Saudi airspace. Israeli F-15's and F-16's would only have to skirt the perimeter of Saudi airspace. By flying the edge of the Saudi's airspace, by the time Saudi's scrambled their interceptors, the Israeli's would be out of range of any weaponry the Saudi's could use to take them out.
That's just one tactic that makes the Saudi threat an empty one. The second is Israeli pilots taking cover and hiding behind civilian aircraft. As far as the Saudi's could tell they would only see a single commercial aircraft penetrating their airspace.
Jordon…Turkey…Syria…Saudi Arabia, none, or all acting together could not stop Israeli strikes on Iran--and for what's worth, the anticipated casualties in Israel from Iranian strikes is about 500 dead.
That is hardly a deterrent to a nation populated by citizens, each of which would forfeit their lives to protect Israel.