Gallup, as usual, posted its latest poll findings at 1 pm--and found a big bounce for Obama from this year's convention, adding to yesterday's indication. They show a very strong one-day 3% hike in his approval rating to 52%--his highest mark in many months. This means that he gained a whopping 7% in just the past three days.
Also, for the first time in more than a week, the numbers on his contest with Romney moved.
It had been a 47% to 46% lead for him (with no change at all from a week ago during and after the RNC)--but now he has opened lead to 3%, at 48%-45%. And that's in a 7-day poll average with only the first couple days of the DNC factored in, so it should go up a bit more over the next few days.
Still a long way to go until election day, but things are certainly looking up for the President.
Of course our friend Nate Silver seems to have never doubted an Obama victory. (Look to the column on the right.)
And hey, this is BEFORE the debates! I cannot wait to see what the President does to Romney in those!
Update: It looks like the Democrats also crushed the Republicans in the ratings:
The ratings are in for night three of the DNC and the news is not good for Mitt Romney, as President Obama’s popularity remains strong.
President Obama’s speech drew a combined viewership of 35.7 million. This was over 5 million more viewers than Mitt Romney drew for his speech in Tampa. More telling is where those viewers came from. While over 39% of Romney’s viewers came from Fox News, the majority of Obama’s audience came from four networks. NBC (7.377 million), CNN (5.562 million), MSNBC (4.547 million), and ABC (3.995 million).
Well hell in America ratings are king, so I guess this election is essentially over. Right?
Despite his confounding inadequacies as a candidate, Romney is indeed a formidable debater. James Fallow's thorough analysis of said skill set in this month's Atlantic , "Slugfest", is an insightful read.
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/8la97dl
Debates don't matter -- not nearly as much as people -- and when I say people I mean pundits -- think. There's a very small number of undecided voters, especially this late in the game. I suspect that they don't really vote and that they lie to pollsters and say they're going to vote.
DeleteFormidable like Sarah? "Um, I'm not going to answer that question in the way you think I should. I'm going to talk about my expertise in business." I can't imagine him going head to head with the President and coming off as anything but an arrogant, entitled snob who knows nothing about running a country.
DeleteAnonymous7:25 PM
DeleteI someone is undecided at this late date, they are mentally challenged.
But President Obama is a MASTER debater (read that slowly).
DeleteHahaha - get Romney off business issues & money and he can't debate with said chair - foreign affairs, women's issues, religion, unemployed, minorities, immigration etc etc
DeleteWouldn't matter what the skill - the policies are under water - unless he lies, he has nothing to debate.
PS - not difficult to be confident when debating the other candidates for the nomination - they were seriously dumber than the chair.
Indeed. Obama/Biden 2012
ReplyDeleteHere's Patrick Murphy's 30 second ad punching the TeaPeeBully Allen West in the mouth with his own words:
http://youtu.be/1Wz3jmhlhIg
West has $10 million of KochSucker money so he will be tough to beat, but I hope Murphy hands the little Nazi West his ass on a platter.
More on FL-18th District Congressional Race:
ReplyDeletePRESS: West Releases Most Offensive Ad of Election Cycle
Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. – The Murphy for Congress campaign released the following statement in response to an Allen West attack ad on Patrick Murphy's religious beliefs:
"How dare Allen West question my faith," said Murphy. "This deeply offensive ad is not in the spirit of American political discourse and inappropriately attempts to assign guilt by association. Once again, Allen West has crossed a line with this hateful ad. His campaign tactics are reprehensible and not befitting a Member of Congress."
Remarked Murphy for Congress communications director Erin Moffet: "Patrick Murphy had nothing whatsoever to do with the DNC platform, and strenuously disagreed with language omitted on Jerusalem and God – and was glad to see immediate changes made to incorporate these important planks. The President had the courage to do the right thing and not let the extremes dictate the party's platform. Sadly, Republican leaders did not have the same courage. While Allen West jumped at the opportunity to criticize the DNC platform, he has remained silent on the fact that his own party's platform contains policies that end Medicare as we know it and take away a woman's right to choose even in cases of rape, incest, and to protect the life of the mother. Once again, West has desperately launched a personal and unfounded attack on Patrick Murphy to distract from his own embarrassing record and statements."
Ah, but Romnay just put Allan West in charge of his race relations office...or something.
DeleteSally
DeleteIf West is in charge of race relations...lol Maybe R&R should make Sarah a senior adviser on parenting and etiquette, or maybe air passenger safety for pregnant women. Send em both to MI where Rove and the Kochs have thrown in the towel already and watch em do their dance to crowds where they can't hear themselves speaking like in WI last yr when Sarah and Breitbart got pummelled. Or PA, if you'd prefer.
Rmoney is on the ropes and his knees are wobbling. If this bump of 2-3% holds for a coupe of weeks, look for AIP and Crossroads to bail on VA, WI, IA and maybe CO and NH. I think they'll still play the anti-Obama theme in FL bc of all the House races. Obama is getting close to a lock on the electoral election, but we need a really strong turnout for all of the local and down-ballot races.
Americans love a winner and if Romney looks weak, maybe some of the Independants will leave him.
DeleteThe important thing for the Dems is closing the enthusiasm gap. Nate Silver said that even HALVING the gap from three percent to 1.5 would give the O-man a big, fat lead that would be, according to him, hard to erase.
ReplyDeleteCan someone please, please explaine to me how Mitt is close to Pres Obama in te polls. Who are these people.
DeleteThey must poll only white men. Obama leads with the black, Hispanic, youth, LGBT, women, enviromentalist and let's not forget the democrats. DetroitSam that's the best I can remember right now. Been asking the same question, who are they polling?
DeleteSam - there are some people that will never vote for a black man. There are other people who believe the lies that Romney and the GOP spin about the President not being "American" Equate American to white & you know what they are saying.
Deleteracist and/or rich.
DeleteThe KochSucking TeaBaggers are lying through their teeth. This isn't my Congressional Race (FL-18th Dist), but I'd love for Allen West to have his TeaBagging ass sent home from DC.
ReplyDeletePRESS: New Ad Makes False Claims on West's Outsourcing Record
West has continually voted to ship jobs overseas at the expense of the American middle class
Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. – The Murphy for Congress campaign responded today to an ad released by Allen West which falsely portrays Patrick Murphy as sending jobs overseas:
"As a small businessman himself, Patrick would never vote for any bill that sends American jobs overseas, and has never cast a vote in Congress despite Allen West's completely unfounded attacks," said Murphy for Congress communications director Erin Moffet. "In proudly voting for Paul Ryan's budget twice, West is the only candidate in this race who has supported legislation that not only allows for outsourcing, but protects companies that ship jobs overseas. West also voted against a measure in the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement that would have addressed China's unfair currency manipulation, which makes it harder for American businesses to compete with China. West's repeated misrepresentations of the issues and his positions are an acknowledgement that even West himself knows that his track record of job creation is dismal and embarrassing."
And this asshole is Sarah's BFF. Didn't she think he'd make a good VP??? Lying shitheads the both of them.
DeleteThe TeaBaggers love them some Allen West, War Criminal
ReplyDeletehttp://youtu.be/bmuxRVu2_MU
Another 30-second spot fro Murphy, FL Dist 18 candidate:
http://youtu.be/E06Ix1ogPSg
Snoop Dogg makes wingnuts assplode with rage.
ReplyDeleteCountdown to Romney screwing up and dropping the "n bomb" begins now.
"Snoop on Obama’s reelection: ‘He cleaned half [Bush's] sh*t up in four years’"
" I mean, Bush fucked up for eight years, so you gotta at least give [Obama] eight years. He cleaned half the shit up in four years, realistically. It ain’t like y’all gave him a clean house. Y’all gave him a house where the TV didn’t work, the toilet was stuffed up — everything was wrong with the house. Then he went and knocked down the most hated, most wanted, the one who had our terror alert on Orange or Red, whatever color it was on."
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/09/07/snoop-on-obamas-reelection-he-cleaned-half-bushs-sht-up-in-four-years/
This is a disturbing paragraph from Nate Silver's post tonight: "More specifically, Mr. Obama will need to show leads of around four or five points in national polls conducted next week to maintain the advantage the model is now showing for him."
ReplyDeleteSo, unless the president's polling numbers improve significantly and quickly, those impressive projections in the 538 model will begin to decay.
Rmoney has a 4:1 fundraising advantage over the president and they're going to saturate the airwaves in battleground states from now until Republican Voting Day (Wednesday, November 7th)
We still have a long way to go.
I think he means that he'll have to downgrade Obamas chances from, like, 80 percent back down to 65-67, which is where he was before the conventions.
DeleteSarah's got her big ol' Star of David on tonight as well as her mean girl attitude. It's really pathetic the way she describes the DNC, since it's so removed from reality. And of course Sean just eggs her on...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mediaite.com/tv/sarah-palin-choice-in-this-election-comes-down-to-free-stuff-or-freedom/
good link!
DeleteIt's like an ice-cold beer (or two!) on a hot summer day...Ahhh
ReplyDeleteEach time I peek at the Electoral Vote Forecast on Nate Silver's 538 blog, it just makes all of the TeaBagger BS seem like small potatoes.
It just keeps getting mo' better every day.
Obama/Biden 2012
Larry Flynt Is Offering One Million Dollars For Details Of Romney’s Tax Returns
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mediaite.com/online/larry-flynt-is-offering-one-million-dollars-for-details-of-romneys-tax-returns/
Oh My!
DeleteI second that...OH MY!
DeleteGo Larry Flynt!!!
DeleteSomebody tried that with You Know Who and "her" baby, didn't they?
DeleteDoubt Romney puts the same fear into his subordinates etc. than She Who Cannot Be Named did.
to anonymous at 6:50, I still have doubts about the medias reported "enthusiam gap". my daughter is a senior in college, worked on obama's campaign before she was old enough to vote. this will be her first time to vote for a president!. she attends college in ohio so her vote is extra meaningful (swing state). her college is all stoked up about obama and are registering kids to vote like crazy! I know plenty of kids in their early 20's who are very excited to vote for obama.
ReplyDeleteThe gap in enthusiasm I referenced was from polling numbers. GoPers are more excited to vote this year -- according to polls. This is from Nate Silver, btw, and he has taken this gap into consideration on his models.
DeleteI am also hearing anecdotes about people being excited to vote -- but I also heard a lot of those stories in 2004, too! Look, I hope I'm wrong -- I hope Obama cruises to an easy election. I'm just worried -- particularly about the governors in VA, OH, FL, and WI stealing the vote for Romney. Obama has to win ONE of those four states to win only one! But I'm afraid of the cheating!
The GOP PACs just pulled out of WI, MI, & PA. What does that tell ya?
DeleteThe enthusiasm gap mainly relates to the GOP attempts to stop people voting. In some swing states the working poor & unemployed are finding the hoops they have to jump through to actually vote are getting harder and harder - this is what is impacting "enthusiasm". The President is way ahead with people - with those who intend to vote (maybe we should say are allowed to vote), not so much
DeleteAnon at 9:35, that tells me Nate needs to redo his calculations pronto.
DeleteNate has Obama winning Wi, Mi and Pa. I did my own calculations and if Obama wins Wi and wins Ia, Co, Nv and Nm, he wins. He doesn't need Oh, Va, Nc or Fl. He's leading in all four of those states and is also ahead in Ohio, virginia and Florida. My fear is that there will be cheating and he'll lose a few states. But cheating in all four states would take a massive coordinated effort that i think will be hard.
DeleteThe ratings are in for night three of the DNC and the news is not good for Mitt Romney, as President Obama’s popularity remains strong.
ReplyDeletePresident Obama’s speech drew a combined viewership of 35.7 million. This was over 5 million more viewers that Mitt Romney drew for his speech in Tampa. More telling is where those viewers came from. While over 39% of Romney’s viewers came from Fox News, the majority of Obama’s audience came from four networks. NBC (7.377 million), CNN (5.562 million), MSNBC (4.547 million), and ABC (3.995 million).
Besides the fact that incumbency is a powerful thing, these ratings demonstrate that President Obama remains a popular and powerful political force. Despite four years of unending political attacks on his popularity, the viewership for President Obama’s speech was down roughly ten percent from 2008.
Four years of ceaseless lies, distortions, and personal attacks got the Republican Party just a ten percent drop in viewership. All of that Republican obstruction designed to make Obama a one term president managed to depress viewership by ten percent.
http://www.politicususa.com/storm-cloud-romney-obamas-convention-ratings-remain-strong.html
Ann Romney during an interview today was asked questions on women's issues.
ReplyDeleteDo you believe a lesbian mother should be allowed to marry her partner?
Ann Romney: "You know, I'm not going to talk about the specific issues"
Do you believe that employer provided health insurance should be required to cover birth control?
Ann Romney: "Again, you're asking me questions that are not about what this election is going to be about"
WTF??
This bitch at the RNC and her travelling around which she has done stump stops on her own -- she's telling people "to believe her", "to trust her", "to trust her husband" and all the condescending shit too -- yet refuses to answer a question with that lame excuse she gave.
This kind of info has to be 'exposed' to people so that know what a stupid, stunned, lying bitch she is. She's like a clone of Palin.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3096434/#48946088
She's more of a Privileged Stepford wife. Palin was more AIP--never really GOP.
DeleteI chalked her non-answers, up to the fact she wasn't sure what Mitts position was today. He didn't earn the etch-a-sketch nickname, for repeating the same answer, two days in a row.
DeleteIn the real world, not the one of Mormon wives that Ann inhabits, having children is one of the surest ways to poverty for any woman, married or not. Once you have kids, even in this day and age of house dads and day care (IF you can afford it), a woman loses some of her earning power and potential retirement money.
DeleteIt's becoming quite comical to see her (with her suddenly chosen theme of Mitt's support for women) being so impatient and condescending whenever any of the peasantry try to ask her about, you know, actual examples of Mitt's support for women. I see some anger leaking around the edges too.
DeleteShe certainly is stupid like Palin! Women's issues are women's issues and every time Ann Romney responds that way she is alienating more women. Maybe not Mormon women but all of the rest of us, just as Sarah Palin lost more women's votes than she gained men's votes for McCain.
DeleteAnd the president had to compete with the start of the NFL season.
DeleteCareful, Gryphen. That's the oldest trick in the book in politics that you don't want to fall victim to. I heard the beginnings of it in the last few days. 'This election if over', 'he's got it in the bag', coming from GOP pundits. They want us to get complacent.
ReplyDeleteThe more that people become complacent that this is not a real battle, which it is. The big financials guns ain't even loaded yet. When they shoot, it's gonna be a bloodbath, so don't encourage it being in the bag...it's not. NOT because Obama isn't the man for the job. He is. But because they are desperate and cynical and powerhungry and they are also scared shitless and that makes them dangerous.
The polls can be skyrocketing, but if people aren't able to vote or DON'T vote, it won't matter.
AND, as stunning and uplifting as the DNC was, in this day and age of the short news cycle, a gazillion things can happen between now and Nov. 6, and the DNC will be long forgotten. Mitt, Koch, Rove et al are fixin' to carpet bomb nasty negative hateful ads all over the country in the next few weeks. People will be bludgeoned with their vile soundbites. So we must remain diligent and active and alert to traps and tricks.
We cannot afford to become too complacent or smug. This is a fight to the finish.
Yes -- and the real fights are still in the House & Senate. If those are lost, there's another 4 more years down the crapper for progress.
DeleteVOTE & DONATE.
I agree. Pulling those ad buys might just be because the Diebold software tweaks to yield the desired election result (stolen, but plausible) have been tested and will work. So, actual votes won't matter.
DeleteO/T: I have to confess that all along I have been haunting the C4P; opposition research if you will.
ReplyDeleteIt is obvious that they are hemorrhaging commenters. I can't figure out how to track where they are going.
Is there a site out there on the inter-tubes for disaffected Palinistas? do any IMers have the IT skills to track it down?
That is all.
Aurora
The election was over when Mitt Romney was the only vaguely sane republican to join those wanting to be the candidate.
ReplyDeleteMitt never had a chance, the rest of them combined couldn't win a contest with a chair, let alone the President. I think there are more states swinging to the President every time Ann Romney gives a little lecture to the wives & moreso every time Paul Ryan tells another lie.
Just curious....did Fox show the RNC in its entirety...and not show the DNC? Because I'm wondering why there are no ratings numbers for Fox and DNC coverage.
ReplyDeleteThe thing that makes me feel slightly less anxious is that the Romney camp seems to be making strange decisions, strategically. This past week, Ryan said something dumb about prayer in school -- the interesting thing, though, was that he said it, on a campaign trip -- TO UTAH? WTF? Why would they waste their time IN UTAH where Romney is probably going to win by 25 points? Dumb! And now Ryan's in NV. NV..is...not really that competitive. Obama is winning by 3.7 points, and that's an average of polls, that were taken BEFORE the convention. Nevada is probably going to be the next state to have GOP spending pulled -- either that or it's going to be the next state where they PRETEND the GOP is going to win, like PA in 2008. I know there are a lot of Mormons in NV, but....there's also a lot of union employees...
ReplyDeleteThe thing that makes me feel less anxious is that the GOP is completely incompetent and involved in an internecine war (Koch/teabaggers/libertarians vs. Rove vs. moderates vs. evangelicals). Look at what a shambles Mitt's trip was to England. Look at how terrible the GOP convention was, even before "Eastwooding." Whoever is running his campaign must secretly be for Obama or unbelievably incompetent. I'm sure it's the latter. That's not going to change and the last 60 days are the most challenging.
ReplyDelete