Courtesy of the New York Times:
For those new to this, Nate is a sports statistician turned political statistician, who has been maintaining a model that takes lots and lots of polling data — most of it at the state level, which is where the presidency gets decided — and converts it into election odds. Like others doing similar exercises — Drew Linzer, Sam Wang, and Pollster — Nate’s model continued to show an Obama edge even after Denver, and has shown that edge widening over the past couple of weeks.
This could be wrong, obviously. And we’ll find out on Election Day. But the methodology has been very clear, and all the election modelers have been faithful to their models, letting the numbers fall where they may.
Yet the right — and we’re not talking about the fringe here, we’re talking about mainstream commentators and publications — has been screaming “bias”! They know, just know, that Nate must be cooking the books. How do they know this? Well, his results look good for Obama, so it must be a cheat. Never mind the fact that Nate tells us all exactly how he does it, and that he hasn’t changed the formula at all.
This is, of course, reminiscent of the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science and much more. On the right, apparently, there is no such thing as an objective calculation. Everything must have a political motive.
This is really scary. It means that if these people triumph, science — or any kind of scholarship — will become impossible. Everything must pass a political test; if it isn’t what the right wants to hear, the messenger is subjected to a smear campaign.
I would like to formally welcome Paul Krugman to the thousands of us already freaked out by the Right Wing's constant attacks on logic and reasoning.
And yes his recognition of the underlying motive for this is dead on. If ALL information is subjective, then facts become irrelevant, and low information people are free to eschew anything which conflicts with their preconceived notion of what constitutes "truth."
In my opinion that was always the business model of Fox News, which has now been embraced by ALL of the Right Wing media.
Like they say, facts have a liberal bias, so WHY would the Right Wing want their constituents exposed to any of those commie liberal brain infections?
P.S. Speaking of facts, it appears that perhaps the pollsters, even our own Nate Silver, might have seriously underestimated the number of actual Obama voters out there. Can you say "cell phones?"
Attack the messenger if you can't handle the truth. The UNSKEWED POLLS site is exactly the opposite of its name, and a complete joke. Don't waste your time, but if you're a numbers guy like me, you'll get a chuckle out of their methodology after reviewing it for about 30 seconds. Shocked? Fuck, no. Mildly surprised? Not even. It's a typical GIGO model:
ReplyDeleteGarbage In---> Garbage Out.
"Unskewed" forces its model to comprise 50% Rep/50% Dem. That is, in effect, purposely skewing the data. Duh! That's like continuing to ask for different people's opinion until someone tells you what you want to hear, then telling only what you were told by that one person as though it were the consensus of your friends.
Gawker takes the idiots to talk in this article.
http://gawker.com/2012-election/
I think it's hilarious that I skewered is saying Oregon is going to go to Romney! Oregon.
DeleteHe showed his hand as a GOP operative by over-reaching.
Oregon, for gods sake!
Oregon is more likely than either its neighbor to the north or south.
DeleteElizabeth 44
Cell phones and also home phones using Vonage, Verizon Home Connect and other similar services that don't automatically put your number in phone books and databases. We have had Vonage for years and we NEVER get solicited for anything by phone. My mother uses the Verizon Service. Of couse, we didn't port our old numbers but chose instead to get a new one.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I've read, Nate used to be a professional gambler and made quite a bit of money. He knows what he's talking about.
ReplyDeleteY'all would be happily shocked at the number of Obama supporters in East Tennessee :)
ReplyDeleteI'm purchasing gin, tonic and fresh limes to have on hand Election Night as I think President Obama and VP Biden are going to kick ass!!!!
ReplyDeleteI have a cell phone and no one has contacted me on it asking poll questions. Love the fact I've been missed (wonder how many others have?)as I've already voted for President Obama via Absentee Ballot which went out in the mail last week!
ReplyDeleteI've received three phone calls about political polling. I am more than happy to tell anyone that I've voted a straight Democratic ticket and that I think the GOP are traitors (or whatever people who commit sedition are). Well, the second question on each of these phone polls was "Are you using a land line?." When I answered in the affirmative, the caller hung up. No chance to tell the world about how I've voted! So much for polls.
DeleteObama/Biden/Democratic Congress 2012
Beaglemom
I've been mobile phone only for 5 years. My adult kids have never had their own land line. And we're all voting for PBO. Hoping this is what is showing up in the national polls - because I'm worried about the sanity of our country otherwise.
ReplyDeleteAfter watching Game Change, I will never believe polling info that the networks report again. All through the 2008 election cycle, they kept saying that it was close. Then we find out it was never close at all.
ReplyDeleteThe fact that Romney picked Ryan is a clue that they needed someone to make this appealing to the crazy teabaggers, and that Romney's whole campaign is just not to be the black guy tells me that they know that this isn't neck in neck. Americans are racist, but the 1% isn't about to risk global collapse just yet.
Also, if the Republicans really wanted this thing, Jeb Bush or Mike Huckabee would have run. Bush/Rubio WOULD have been a problem for the president, I am afraid.
No, Bush Rubio would have done the same thing. And Bush is a legacy guy, and Rubio is turning into quite the liar as well. I think Rubio has ruined his future in the party frankly. The only one who could have given Obama a run was Huntsman, who knows him well, worked for him, and has moderate views on a lot of issues. The GOP failed to embrace any moderation at all, and went with the two biggest liars around. Although, I guess Trump and Newt would have given Mitt and Ryan a run. Can you imagine that?
DeleteOh, adn why does Governor Christie wear a jacket that says "Governor Chris Christie" on it in large letters? Is he afraid someone might take that 5X jacket by mistake? Or can't he remember his own name?
Huntsman is NOT moderate.
DeletePresident Obama Makes a Statement on Hurricane Sandy
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyZltYdr8Ao&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6oAY1TbmhU&feature=channel&list=UL
President Bill Clinton on Romney's Jeep Ad: "Biggest Load of Bull in the World"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2TiE2HzeYpQ
Collapse
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iE5wBfM1LQ&feature=channel&list=UL
Vice President Biden on Romney's New Autos Ad: "Have They No Shame?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zyhndHr6vs&feature=channel&list=UL
Brad Woodhouse on MSNBC: Romney was Wrong on Autos and it will Cost him this Election
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NA0fsK-LLwY&feature=channel&list=UL
Strickland: Romney's False Ohio Ad is a "Sign of Desperation"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpu77C7faqg&feature=channel&list=UL
WEIGEL: Romney's False Jeep Ad Shows He's In Trouble In Ohio
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1dowlYuti4&feature=channel&list=UL
Vice President Joe Biden: Catholics for Obama
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP5H64VYBpc&feature=channel&list=UL
This morning Progressive Talk Radio....something that you in Alaska may not get....noted that the right was discrediting Nate Silver because he looked effeminate. GO figure...But since my son the statistian turned high school math teacher says his model is sound, I will go with Nate. :)
ReplyDeleteYour son is wise, just as you are to trust him.
DeleteMy Republican friends who are engineers agree with Nate's methodology as well, and they're voting for Obama anyway because of all of the lies that have been so blatant. None of them make much more than $100K, so they're more worried about what Romney is going to cut from deductions (like the mortgage interest tax deduction) than they are about the off-shore income and carry-forward privileges of the super-wealthy class.
In fact, anyone who hasn't noticed that their federal income tax rates have decreased over the past 4 years either makes too much to bother looking at their paycheck deductions or has a very short memory.
KUDO 1080 covers the usual suspects from liberal talk radio, including Stephanie Miller, Alan Colmes, Ron Reagan, Ed Schultz, plus local Shannyn Moore, so yea, we get to hear progressive talk as well.
DeleteI hope his math is right.
ReplyDeleteSaw R campaign statement that Mitt flipped for FEMA.
I can say cellphone only and further give you a profile of who I am. A 71-year-old white woman who gave up her landline 5 or 6 years ago. No one call me. So sad. Haha!
ReplyDeleteAlso I'd add, I live in a liberal college town in Massachusetts. Yes, Massachusetts that knows Romney best, a wolf in sheep's clothing.
Vote for Obama-Biden 2012.
for the record, BOSTON GLOBE:
ReplyDeleteNate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics. Wait, bear with me!
On Election Night 2008, Nate Silver went from just another political prognosticator – albeit one whose blog, Fivethirtyeight, was drawing million of page views a week – to a rock star.
Many other analysts had, like Silver, predicted a big win for Obama; but Silver’s data-driven system had correctly called every state but Indiana, and had gotten all the Senate races right to boot.
Nate tries to take into account cell phones. He gives more weight to the polls that pick up cell phones.
DeleteBLAME TEH GAYS
ReplyDeleteAll this weather shit gets pretty complicated. But it's okay now, since Teh GAYS have apologized for causing Sandy (See apology under link below). They claim that they merely over-compensated for the drought that they had caused previously. I hope the "good" religulous peeps can forgive as well.
Personally, I think they were either spending too much time
(a)causing global warming, or
(b)just playing grab-ass and things got out of hand.
You know how teh gays are. They got their hands in/on everything, and not all of them are certified meteorologists.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/10/29/anti-lgbt-pastor-blames-hurricane-sandy-on-the-homosexual-agenda/
Ritorna Vincitor • 7 hours ago −
As a gay person I would like to offer my heartfelt apology for causing the hurricane. Please try to understand that we were just trying to correct the drought that we caused. We meant well, but I guess we just overreached. Honestly, who knew just how difficult controlling the weather would be?
95 1 •Reply•Share ›
oopsie. I omitted the /s.
DeleteSorry, I forget that sarcasm doesn't always stand out on its own these days --- not when we have all of these parody-defying mullet-heads that we have to deal with who are occupying the extreme right-wing of the GOP.
I love it. What a good humored answer.
DeleteElizabeth 44
Fwiw -- I'm 37 and I have a landline and no one has ever called me. (We bundle our cable and Internet.)
ReplyDeleteBut I live in Illinois.
I got called two nights ago. I normally don;t answer during election season because I don't want to deal with people begging for money or trying to convince me to come over to the dark side. But this fall has been all robocalls. So I answer one, and it's a poll. I proudly answer Obama to everything.
DeleteHow soon we forget. During the Bush administration some of the government scientists were required to rewrite their reports because they didn't fit the Republican line.
ReplyDeleteElizabeth 44
The media has to discredit Nate Silver and those like him and continue to hammer how Willard is closing the gap and might flip states.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, when those voting machines suddenly change some votes and Rmoney wins, they'll be an outroar and an investigation. If it looks close and likely, then it's explained. If it's a huge surprise upset, they might be investigated.
It's not about selling papers.
It's about hiding a fraudulent election.
Careful Nate - these people are not above burning folks for being witches.
ReplyDeleteI did finally get a call, the first in 50 yeas as a land line customer. I live in IN and let the caller know exactly what I felt about the GOP, Romney, Ryan, and that asshat Murdouche. I flat out told them the whole lot could go to hell in a hand basket for treason and that I was voting DEM full slate and so were all of my family.
ReplyDeleteI don't know about America, but in Australia, landlines are OUT. Why would anyone have one, lol? I remember years back when we had one, I'd never answer it anyway, knowing that it could only be a cold caller or someone else annoying. Friends and family ring your mobile. Only very old people have landlines anymore!
ReplyDeleteI live in montana, in no cell service area. I loathe the land line and get tons of political calls.....which all go unanswered. Already voted 100%DEM anyway........bawahaha!!
ReplyDelete