A Fordham University study ranked 28 polling firms on how their pre-election national surveys compared to the results on Election Day. The ranking:
1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
5. Purple Strategies
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
27. National Journal
Did you notice that both Gallup and Rasmussen share the same abysmal ranking of 24? And unsurprisingly these were the TWO polls on which the Republicans hung all of their hopes for winning this election, And yet they were actually WORSE than the Fox poll itself which we all undoubtedly simply assume to be biased.
So what does that mean?
I don't know about you, but for years I have always considered the Gallup poll to be quite accurate. (In fact I don't believe I ever seriously questioned their data.)
So have they ALWAYS been this far off? Has their model ALWAYS been flawed? Or did something nefarious happen this time around?
You know like many others I also think that Karl Rove and the GOP had a plan in place to steal this election. However I disagree that Hurricane Sandy derailed their plans.
I think it was due to the fact that there was too much scrutiny from poll watchers, a riveted media, and even the voters themselves, for them to successfully pull it off.
However in my opinion they STILL might have risked it, if not for Nate Silver.
Nate Silver laid out a bullet proof algorithm that had already proved highly successful in elections past, and that essentially became our firewall against a successful attempt to steal this election. If they had still taken the risk, with so much scrutiny directed at them, and with the math so clearly working against them, they would have risked exposure in a way that could have doomed the Republican party for all time.
Personally I think that was what was behind Karl Roves' tantrum on election night. He KNEW the fix was in but he needed time, time that he simply did not have, for it work its dark magic.
However in this election, the election of 2012, math and logic finally reared their beautiful heads, and Rove's traitorous attempts to steal our democracy may have been dealt a fatal blow.
From this day forward we know who to trust, what their data tells us, and how to use that data to fact check those attempting to sell us a false narrative about the eventual outcome of our elections.
And for that we owe Nate Silver, and the many other honest pollsters a huge debt of gratitude. Not just for what they did in this election of 2012, but for how that will protect us in elections yet to come.
Update: Speaking of math, it looks like Romney has finally conceded Florida. Which leaves our final tally at Obama 333 and Romney 206.
And THAT my friends is what a landslide look like!