New census data shows that the demographic shifts may soon make the Republicans obsolete as a national party.

Courtesy of the New Republic:  

Today, the Census released the November 2012 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration Supplement, which is based on interviews with hundreds of thousands of residents. The CPS asks Americans whether they participated in the last election. The CPS is imperfect like any survey, but it is considered the gold standard for analyzing turnout. It demonstrates that, in the debate about the GOP’s future in an increasingly diverse America, both sides are right, to a certain extent. On the one hand, Obama’s historic candidacy led to historic black turnout. On the other hand, the Obama coalition is the product of irreversible demographic changes. If Republicans hope to win presidential elections, they will need to broaden their appeal—not just count on lower minority turnout in the post-Obama era. 

Unsurprisingly, the CPS found that the 2012 electorate was more diverse than any in history. Whites represented just 73.7 percent of the electorate, down from 76.3 in 2008 and 79.2 percent in 2004. In comparison, the exit polls found that whites represented 72 percent of the electorate in 2012, compared to 74 percent in 2008 and 77 percent in 2004. For the first time, the CPS found that black turnout rates exceed white turnout rates, with 66.2 percent of voting age blacks turning out, compared to 64.1 percent of whites. Many expected that black turnout would decline in 2012, but the CPS actually found that black turnout was even higher in 2012 than it was in 2008, increasing from 64.7 to 66.2 percent. 

But the problem for Republicans is that the white share of the voting eligible population is likely to decline even further over the next four years. What’s causing the decline? Today’s 15-18 year olds are only about 58 percent white. As they enter the electorate and older whites depart, the non-white share of the voting eligible population rises. This prediction is not subject to great uncertainty. These 15-18 year olds are alive, they’re counted in the Census, and, unless they die, they’re going to be eligible to vote in 2016. If the non-white share of the voting eligible population declines by another 2 points, as expected, then the 2016 electorate will about as diverse as it was in 2012, even if turnout rates return to 2004 levels. The Obama coalition is not going away, even if elevated minority turnout rates are gone for good. 

The biggest mistake that Republicans made in 2012 was assuming that 2008 was a special, one-time product of a historic candidate. That was superficially appealing and maybe even “felt” right, but the CPS said that the 2008 turnout wasn’t as unique as the huge crowds and palpable enthusiasm made it seem. The GOP should not delude itself into believing that taking Obama off of the ballot will return them to the White House, even if black turnout rates should be expected to decline in 2016. Demographic change, not turnout, is the primary force driving the declining white share of the electorate, and the GOP will need to adapt.

Nothing that the GOP is currently doing indicates that they have learned ANYTHING from their recent defeats in the last two presidential elections. So I think that the White House may be out of their reach for the foreseeable future, barring any huge scandal for the Democrats that is.

However on the local level the GOP still has a very strong machine in place, not to mention control over those damn voting machines, which means that unless the Democrats find a way to outlaw voting machines that leave no paper trail, or increase their turnout to such a degree that elections cannot be stolen, they will have to wait until the people finally get completely fed up with the Republican party or until the demographics change to such a degree that even in smaller elections the minority becomes the majority.

Personally I don't think our country can survive waiting for the latter.