This weekend’s announcement by the former governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, that he would not seek that state’s Democratic nomination for Senate represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber.
A race-by-race analysis of the Senate, in fact, suggests that Republicans might now be close to even-money to win control of the chamber after next year’s elections.
I first heard this on MSNBC today and could not believe my ears.
I had convinced myself, and thought the evidence supported the opinion, that the Senate was safely in the hands of the Harry Reid, that the ONLY possible change would occur in Congress, and that the Republicans were playing defense and in fear of losing control to the Democrats.
I trust Nate Silver's ability to read the tea leaves and predict future outcomes, but I fervently hope that in this case he is way off the mark.
Congress is both the Senate and House of Representatives. I think you must have meant "the House" when you wrote "Congress."
ReplyDeleteThe way for this prognosis fail is for the people to make it. GOTV.
ReplyDeleteSh*t. Palin will take credit for the shift. This article MUST go viral now and then MUST be brought up each and every time she tries to take credit.
DeleteI am hoping that the anger that the Republicans had aroused will prove this prediction wrong!
ReplyDeleteDamn...
ReplyDeleteNate's usually right.
Nate had predicted the Repubs would take the Senate about this time in the las election cycle. He's usually right, but he's not Nostradamus. There are alot of variables that have to be determined in the months leading up to the election that have yet to be determined, that he cannot factor into his prognosis yet.
ReplyDeleteWe have to get the Repub candidates talking about the core issues the Tea Party is interested in. Let them regale us with their interpretations of female anatomy. Let them further alienate minorities. In other words: make them make themselves as toxic to independent voters as possible.
I for one will be doing my part to see that their echo chamber has alot of misinformation about what their base wants, so they are just as surprised as they were last November.
Dear god this country is even more f¥€ked if that happens. The Greedy One Percent need to go. They must be replaced by a party that works together for the good of the people. Wake people up to their plan to plunder all the wealth, kill off the weak and make slaves of any that are left. I want a better America for my children and that won't happen with the path their on.
ReplyDeleteOne way we can prevent this kiddies, is to get out, vote in every race at all levels of govt, and do not, under any circumstances, vote for the people who support the right-wing zealot agenda, no matter what political label they attach to themselves.
ReplyDeleteIf they do, abortion will be illegal and the availability of birth control pills will be lost to most American women. So glad my daughter and granddaughter are living safely in Canada where their rights are intact
ReplyDeleteYou'd better believe he's right, Gryphen. To all my fellow Democrats who say the Republican party is "dead", get your heads out of the sand.
ReplyDeleteThey are doing fine on a local, state, and congressional level. And they are enacting laws on those levels which are taking this country back, back, back. Those rights - civil, choice, etc - that we marched for and thought were settled law years ago, are being abrogated on a state level with such intensity that the Republicans DON'T NEED control of the Supreme Court; they're doing just fine getting their bad stuff passed on the state level.
For Christ's sake, guys, part of this was our fault. We thought the election of 2008 sealed-the-deal for liberals and progressives, and didn't come out to vote in 2010. Our "deal" needed at least two more elections to "seal" and we declared victory way too soon. The Republicans saw an opening and took it. The overwhelming election of Republicans on the state level gave gerrymandering of US House seats to Republican congressional candidates.
What are we going to do? Well, we have to declare that the Republican party is NOT dead and they are going just fine. And we can't sit around and hope the Republicans are going to nominate more Tea Party candidates who will go down in defeat. At SOME point, the Republican leadership will get smart and start nominating "insane on the inside-sane on the outside" candidates, who WILL win. And the Senate will go the way of the House...and the local and state houses.
And, we have to stop the insane in-fighting Democrats always engage in. "Ooooh, Obama isn't as progressive as I wanted him to be - he didn't close Gitmo, he didn't get us out of Iraq fast enough, etc, etc, so I'm not going to vote Democratic in 2014. I'm going to stay home - that'll show the Dems!"
Our country is hanging by a thread. If North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin don't scare the hell out of you, then you're not paying attention. Am I panicked? You bet your ass I am.
phoebes@4:14... you are absolutely right! The reactionaries of this nation have patiently built up a system of "true believers" from the ground up since the seventies of the twentieth century.
DeleteThis infiltration "from the ground up" is now bearing its religious/fundamentalist/paternalistic white fright fruit.
Unless we get out of our self-delusion that this regressive mindset cannot happen in the 21st century, we SHALL lose any influence we might have wielded otherwise.
Yes, this nation is hanging by that proverbial thread. There is only one escape! Get Out and Vote... but do not vote until after you have educated yourself as to the options... then have the nerve/guts/balls to educate others! SERIOUSLY! REALLY! This population, this particular philosophy of our forefathers cannot survive otherwise.
Fox News Terminates Liz Cheney's Contract As Paid Contributor In Light Of Senate Run
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mediaite.com/tv/fox-news-terminates-liz-cheney-as-paid-contributor-in-light-of-senate-run/
BFHD!!! this way they shall have the "deniability factor" when they favor her in their reports. ARRRGH!
DeleteSadly, the answer is still "trust Nate".
ReplyDeleteAfter 2008, the pundints declared the GOP dead. In 2010, the dead GOP overran the House.
History has a tendency to repeat itself.
Again, history has a tendency to repeat itself.
The bastards figured out they could lose the national battles and still win the war by patiently scheming at the local level.
Thank you Sir! Now... how to spread the word and get people to get off their collective duffs to go and educate themselves and others in order to increase the voting population?
DeleteAny advice is appreciated.
Di -
DeleteI have no earthly idea what to do. That's why I'm just a lowly pundint and not a real pundit.
I'm afraid we might simply be getting the government we deserve.
Ever since 2008, I've heard progressives proclaim that the GOP was dead. Oops...then there was 2010 and the right took the House. It may lack public support but the GOP still pulls in seats in both houses of Congress. Why and How? When are progressives going to wake up? When are progressives going to take back the reins of the country that they've let fall into the hands of the far right?!
ReplyDeleteDoes the term "gerrymandering" ring a familiar note? It's a tough one...
DeleteTea Partier: Women Aborting Rapist’s Baby Should Serve Same Time As Rapist!
ReplyDelete...So there you have it, folks. In the sick and twisted world of the Tea Party, a woman should face the same jail time for aborting the rapist’s baby, as the rapist gets for raping her.
http://aattp.org/tea-partier-women-aborting-rapists-baby-should-serve-same-time-as-rapist/
...my brain stutters...
DeleteLittle FUCKER thinks he's untouchable. That smug attitude is exactly why I want to see him taken down to his knees. He thinks he's got it all figured out and no one is smarter than he is. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteEdward Snowden Declares Himself Torture-Proof
http://www.businessinsider.com/snowden-declares-immunity-to-torture-2013-7
Makes me want to be Canadian eh?
ReplyDeleteDocuments Detail Implosion At Leading Conservative Christian Political Firm
ReplyDeleteTranscripts of internal emails and text messages show just how Strategy Group for Media CEO Rex Elsass lost the faith of his employees and the control of his office. Also, he may have accidentally mailed a vibrator to Michele Bachmann.
Hundreds of pages of email and text message correspondence made public last week shed new light on the infighting and organizational disarray that have plagued America’s leading conservative Christian political consulting firm in recent months.
As BuzzFeed reported in June, the Columbus-based Strategy Group for Media — which has represented dozens of Tea Party and religious right Republicans, including Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Michele Bachmann, and Newt Gingrich — has been mired in lawsuits and internal tumult since last spring, when seven of the firm’s managers staged a religious intervention with their CEO, Rex Elsass. After the managers made their demands in a dramatic meeting that culminated with them laying hands on their boss and praying for his soul, Elsass fired three of his top lieutenants, including his longtime protege and Strategy Group president Nick Everhart.
The series of emails and text messages, made public on the Franklin County Court website in the ongoing lawsuit between Everhart and Strategy Group, add further detail to that meeting, and show the extent to which the company’s managers were worried about Elsass’ psychological and spiritual health. They also reveal potentially embarrassing anecdotes for the company, including one incident in which an executive said Elsass accidentally mailed a “female pleasure machine” to Rep. Michele Bachmann.
A transcript of text messages sent among the managers prior to their April 1 intervention with Elsass suggest they were nervous about confronting him, and even concerned for their physical safety.
“At least you have baby bird wings that can fly away if Rex goes nuts,” one of them texted to the others a few days before the intervention. “It might be like game of thrones. All our heads on spikes and then a celebration!”
“I just personally don’t think it’s safe to be in that empty building with him waiting for us,” said another. “Call me crazy…”
A third manager attempted to ease the others’ concerns: “Men, don’t be anxiety filled pray about it, but the group confrontation is biblical & what must be done. We know where he’ll be we meet him there in love & the reaction is in his hands.”
The text messages show that the managers planned to begin their intervention with a prayer, “to set the tone in a loving way” because they “had to do all possible to convey genuine love.” Everhart said they needed to let him know they were “there to help him.”
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/documents-detail-implosion-at-leading-conservative-christian
"...the ONLY possible change would occur in Congress...."
ReplyDeleteSenate is part of Congress.
Well, the "conservatives" (which used to mean people who avoided change) have worked to kill overtime pay, are going after the minimum wage, and I can only hope they aim to banish "the weekend" soon.
ReplyDeleteIt may take THAT last straw to get all the dumb bastards who do whatever Fox tells them to do, to suddenly realize who it is that is attacking the American Dream, and all that is sacred to its citizens.
So he thinks the remnants of the Palin administration will defeat Begich?
ReplyDeleteWell, the Republicans are busy gerrymandering all their districts now that the Supreme Court has given them their stamp of approval.
ReplyDeleteIt will only get worse.
Voter IDs. Diebold flipping.
I can't imagine how much more the Republicans could do to shoot themselves in the foot in the next 18 months. You'd think they'd done enough. Especially to women to get them to switch their votes.
But people continue to be stupid and vote against their own best interests, then blame the other party when their own party screws them over.