Thursday, July 25, 2013

New study claims that religion will disappear by 2041. Finally, something to live for!

Courtesy of Guardian Express:

 Author and noted biopsychologist Nigel Barber has completed a new study that shows Atheism is most prevalent in developed countries, and, according to his projections, religion will completely disappear by 2041. His findings are discussed in his new book “Why Atheism Will Replace Religion.” A new study that clarifies his earlier research will be published in August. His findings focus on studying trends within countries around the world and the fact that “Atheists are heavily concentrated in economically developed countries”

"- In my new study of 137 countries (1), I also found that atheism increases for countries with a well-developed welfare state (as indexed by high taxation rates). Moreover, countries with a more equal distribution of income had more atheists. My study improved on earlier research by taking account of whether a country is mostly Moslem (where atheism is criminalized) or formerly Communist (where religion was suppressed) and accounted for three-quarters of country differences in atheism." \

His main thesis stems from the phenomenon of religion declining as personal wealth increases. He cites the reason as people having less of a need for supernatural beliefs when the tangible, natural world is providing for their needs. He says the majority of the world will come to view religion as completely irrelevant by 2041.

Sounds too good to be true right? Yeah I thought so too, and I am not alone apparently:

Political Scientist Eric Kaufmann holds the opposite view, citing the fact that Atheists have fewer children than religious people. He thinks this could indicate the religious mindset will proliferate due to religious folks simply breeding more than Atheists. But what is the significance of the prolific breeding of religious people? 

Biotechnologist Thomas Rees poses this question in his essay “Will the Religious Inherit the Earth?” In this piece, he discusses Kaufmann’s research and comes to the conclusion that the breeding aspect could tip the odds in favor of the religious purely due to fertility and childbearing rates among them. 

Dammit! I knew I should not get too excited.

But wait, Barber is not so easily persuaded that his research is incorrect:

Barber, however, dismisses the breeding-related evidence, saying “…Yet, noisy as they can be, such groups are tiny minorities of the global population and they will become even more marginalized as global prosperity increases and standards of living improve.” 

He also says that as women become more integrated into the workforce, they will have fewer children, even if they are members of a religious fundamentalist group: “Moreover, as religious fundamentalists become economically integrated, young women go to work and produce smaller families, as is currently happening for Utah’s Mormons,” he says.

Okay now THAT'S the kind of article I enjoy! One with plenty of information for both sides to mull over and the opportunity provided for further discussion, argument, and ultimate disagreement.

So what do you think?

Personally I do not hold out much hope for a world without religion in a mere 28 years, but the study DOES give me hope that I will see the pendulum swing to the point that the majority of the world will be populated by atheists, and that religious fundamentalists will be driven from power and forced to hide in the self same closets that they once drove the homosexual community into by the millions.

All I know for sure is that I am going to attempt and prolong my life as long as possible in the hopes that someday I can author a blog called "The Immoral Majority" and have it be factually correct.

I can hardly wait.

24 comments:

  1. Anonymous2:35 AM

    all the more reason to eat well and exercise - I would love to live long enough to see this come about too ! :)

    (but hopefully if the religious are in the closet it will be by choice - no need for us to push them in there or be mean to them - after we are not bullies)

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  2. Anonymous3:16 AM

    They're both wrong. The way things are going there won't be much left of the planet in 28 or so years. We will either have blown it up or the water wars will have decimated the population.

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  3. A. J. Billings3:21 AM

    I'd like to be so optimistic, but I foresee many centuries of humanity suffering under the yoke of militant fundamentalist religion forcing their views on everyone else by federal and state law.

    To imagine that by 2041 we'd be free of influences like Ken Cuccinelli, the governor candidate in Viriginia is just hard to believe.

    He's the guy that is actually pushing a law that makes oral sex a FELONY, even for a married couple.

    http://theimmoralminority.blogspot.com/2013/07/this-just-in-virginia-is-definitely-not.html

    Back in 2008 he also advocated criminalizing a heterosexual relationship between consenting adults, who just happened to be married to other people

    http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/ken-cuccinelli-once-backed-anti-adultery-laws-94620.html

    The Christian Taliban is unfortunately not going away any time soon, and neither is the Muslim Taliban.

    If I had to guess, I'd say that maybe in 500 years we might see the hard core fanatic religious humans diminish to maybe 5% of the population, but I can't see them ever vanishing.

    Humans are too gullible, easily misled, and are subject to believe mythology and superstition just like they did 5000 years ago when various cults were still warring for worshiping the "wrong" gods.


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    1. Anonymous5:01 AM

      A little OT/TMI, A.J., but in honor of Ken Cuccinelli, I'm going to give my boyfriend a blow job tonight and maybe participate in a little" back door" action later!

      ~Straight woman who thinks Cuccinelli should be prosecuted for crimes against humanity.

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  4. Anonymous4:27 AM

    They breed like rabbits but are "dumbunnies" and like them thar guns. They will kill themselves off, also they like to eat chikfila, and big gulps, that will kill them off it the guns don't get them first.
    Remember the doodoo bird? Modern cons are the new doodoo birds. And SP is the leader who is dying before our eyes. Meth, chickfila and guns!
    booyah!

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  5. Leland4:47 AM

    Don't hold your breath, Jesse. The ignorant will always be with us, along with the downtrodden and the insanely poor.

    I can't even come close to the idea that the MAJORITY will be non-religious. I'm sorry to be so pessimistic, but I feel the poor and destitute will always be with us because it is in the best interest of those who want power to make certain they are!

    Along with being poor and being destitute comes religion, as is a tenant of the above article, even though it is something that has be accepted as a reverse of what he is saying. "As personal wealth increases...." WAY too many poor and far too many believers. Does he REALLY believe we can significantly raise the income level of the WORLD enough to put people in the non-religious category? That idea by itself is enough to destroy his argument.

    Besides, things will have to get considerably worse before even "First World" people say "ENOUGH!"

    Twenty eight years? It will be a cold day in HELL before that happens - and I don't even BELIEVE in Hell!

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    1. Anonymous3:20 AM

      Yes, it's unfortunate the poor people don't simply give up and kill themselves off. *eyeroll*

      Their belief is that even when they have nothing, they still have God and there's a reason for their circumstances.

      Glad you have the luxury and privilege of being an atheist.

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  6. I'll be 95 so it's possible that I'll be able to comment on your "Immoral Majority" blog then!!!!! (Fingers crossed.)

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  7. Religious people have probably been outbreeding atheists for generations, yet atheism still increases. For that matter, until a couple of centuries ago there were hardly any atheists, and we were a small and despised minority everywhere until the mid-twentieth century at the earliest.

    Atheism has always spread mostly through religious people abandoning religion (that is, not through breeding), and will continue to do so.

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    1. Anonymous9:05 AM

      The only person I know who was born atheist is my daughter. Both my husband and I as well as his 5 siblings are all non religious atheist or agnostic. None of us go to any church. We all grew up on either a catholic or protestant family that did attend church regularly but lost faith as the hypocrisy and stupidity of the religious folks we grew up around began to make itself manifest to us.
      I was not going to allow my daughter to be infected with that crap just to have it shattered when she grew up to see how false and evil religion really is.

      Delete
    2. Leland10:23 AM

      9:05, I love your last sentence! I like the entire comment, but that last sentence is fantastic.

      GOOD FOR YOU! (and, of course, her.)

      Delete
  8. Anonymous6:59 AM

    As long as people can be influenced by fear and someone can promise security or life in the everlasting, they will give the fruits of their work or womb as a sacrifice to the unknown and a profit to the one that gains influence over their insecurity.

    RJ in Brownbackistan

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    1. Leland7:45 AM

      Right on target, RJ!

      It's kind of like Hitler. (minus the everlasting thing, of course, but he did promise the thousand year Reich, right?)

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  9. Beldar J Conehead7:34 AM

    Gryphen, as welcome as this unlikely outcome would seem, remember that religion is a manifestation of inherent human madness, not an external artificially imposed upon it.

    However irrational it may seem, there is an unavoidable widespread human need to find answers to great mysteries, for fealty to a higher power and for membership in insider communities that gives members power and superiority over outsiders.

    Whatever would replace religion - and it's guaranteed that something would replace it - is unlikely to make you any happier than religion does.

    As much as I would welcome the end of organized religion, I pray to Zeus this prediction is wrong.

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    1. Anonymous3:21 AM

      "However irrational it may seem, there is an unavoidable widespread human need to find answers to great mysteries, for fealty to a higher power and for membership in insider communities that gives members power and superiority over outsiders."

      Sounds like atheism to me. The power? "Rational thinking." "Science" - various names for the same damn concept.

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  10. Leland7:37 AM

    Sorry, Infidel753, but I cannot accept the statement that a couple of centuries ago there were "hardly any" atheists.

    How does one know that? Are you speaking only of those who didn't believe in a monotheistic god? Are you talking about Europe and the Middle East only? Are you talking about an atheist being one who didn't believe in the SAME GOD as the people in power?

    Could it not have been that atheists simply didn't TELL anyone they were since it was a death sentence in Europe and the Middle East?

    Too many reasons we can't know for sure.

    Having said that, however, were there as many as now? PROBABLY not - at least in that small theater of the world.

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  11. Anonymous9:24 AM

    "He thinks this could indicate the religious mindset will proliferate due to religious folks simply breeding more than Atheists."
    Did anyone see the movie Idiocracy?
    Idjits and nutz breed like bunnies but will off themselves at higher rates too. Which wins out, breeding or die-off?

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  12. Sorry.

    Work of fiction or not, the bible, like Shakespeare, does reflect universal timeless truths like there will be poor always. There will also be stupid always and gullible always and yes, "faithful" always.

    We are centuries away from religion being reduced to the point of being ignorable.

    In fact, in the 70s there was a move in Iceland to revive the old religion. Yep. Thor and Odin are being worshipped again. People are converting back to Asatru. Iceland recognized it as a faith in the 70s, followed by Norway and Denmark.

    I'm waiting for a movement in Greece to start worshipping those gods again.

    http://www.badassoftheweek.com/norsereligion.html

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    1. Beldar Majilnor Conehead1:24 PM

      "I'm waiting for a movement in Greece to start worshipping those gods again."

      "Why just in Greece?", thunders Zeus, angrily.

      I heard on NPR recently that some 500-1000? American soldiers have successfully petitioned the US Military to provide an appropriate Asatruvian(?) symbol - possibly a horned helmet? - on their graves when they die, instead of crosses, stars of David, satanic pentagrams and Xenuvian planetary crystals (for weaponized Scientologians).

      They are also asking that suitable chaplains be provided for their religious ceremonies, which I would describe, but I prefer not to anger Thor on such a gorgeous day.

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  13. Ferry Fey11:35 AM

    Gryphen, I've been reading your website every day for several years. I understand the behavior of the Abrahamic religions that leads to many of your reactions. But as a member of a minority, non-Abrahamic religion, I get really tired of all the consistent, across-the-board religion bashing. Perhaps Lindy West's "How to Be an Atheist Without Being a Dick About It" would be a useful read for you.

    http://jezebel.com/how-to-be-an-atheist-without-being-a-dick-about-it-823225375

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    1. Well thank you for your patronage, and for inferring that I am a dick. Those are two things that make this job so very satisfying.

      In fact I HAVE read the Jezebel article as well as this more than appropriate response:http://tinyurl.com/kf8ho4o.

      It should be noted that this blog was founded in direct response to the religious persecution of freethinkers and the attempts to insert religion into virtually every facet of life in this country.

      I did not start the fight, I just refuse to stand idly by while our education system is under attack, science is being undermined by religious quackery, and the right of women to control their reproductive choices is being stripped away on virtually a daily basis.

      If I hurt your little feelings while doing so, I apologize. However you might take a moment to examine WHY my attacks on established religion upset you so. It could be because you are suffering a little challenge with those critical thinking skills yourself.

      Just saying.

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    2. Anonymous3:38 PM

      Ferry Fay... so basically your position is that if Gryphen understood that YOUR religion is the right one and therefore not worthy of bashing, you'd feel better?

      I actually don't mean to pick on you by saying that. I get where you're coming from, because I used to be where you are. I remember when Gryphen started mentioning atheism and religion on his blog, and his somewhat in-your-face manner of doing so made me uncomfortable at the time. Do you know why? Because I was still a TBM (True Believing Mormon) at the time, and I was experiencing some cognitive dissonance. I was so sure that my religion was the true one, and while I understand that Gryphen (and other atheists) maybe had some legitimate reasons to complain about mainstream Christianity (and its fundamentalists), that he had no idea what he was talking about when it came to MY religion. MY religion couldn't be guilty of anything, because MY religion had God's stamp of approval. Poor, silly Gryphen... he just didn't have the truth, so I had to cut him a little slack. Although there were a few times when he got a little insistent about the anti-religion agenda, and I considered not reading here anymore.

      I had no idea that I was in the process of becoming an atheist, which happened just over a year ago. I discovered that Mormonism was nothing but a 180 year old fraud. And since Mormons are taught from birth that every other religion on the planet is absolutely false, it was easy for me to leave behind both Christianity and theism in general at the same time that I left Mormonism.

      The point of my story is that I understand your offense at Gryphen's anti-religion agenda. And since I'm now on the other side of the experience, I understand your offense probably better than you do. The idea that your religion could be just as false and just as harmful as all the other religions makes you uncomfortable. I get it. And I hate to be the one to break it to you, but your religion is just as false as all the rest. It doesn't matter if it makes you happy, it's still false. It doesn't matter if you have a different God than Abraham did, it's still false. It's a waste of your time and your resources and your thought processes. You don't belong to the one true religion any more than anyone else does. And the sooner you realize that, the sooner you'll see your offense for what it really is.

      I hope that someday soon you'll start to understand why atheist activists and anti-religionists feel so strongly about what they do. In the meantime, try reading Greta Christina's book Why Are You Atheists So Angry? It explains very well why Gryphen does what he does, and why it's so important for him and others to continue doing it.

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  14. Anonymous12:33 PM

    But really, what difference would it make? We all know that most of "problems caused by religion" aren't caused by religion, but cause by people being people. Atheism doesn't prevent this, but just changes the justifications (cf. social darwinism, eugenics) A white-power religious nut would quote scripture to justify their actions. A white-power atheist would pimp "evolutionary evidence" to justify their "superiority". --They're just ways to rationalize already-held beliefs.

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    1. “With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.”
      ― Steven Weinberg

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