Consider the remarkable number of races that remain tossups at this late stage. According to RealClearPolitics’ polling averages, less than three points separate the candidates in Alaska, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Kansas, Georgia, and Iowa. Moreover, based on pollsters’ recent history of overestimating GOP strength and underestimating Hispanic turnout, there’s reason to believe that the Colorado Senate race is even closer than the 3.6 point edge held by Republican Cory Gardner over Democratic Sen. Mark Udall suggests. The razor-thin margins that separate the candidates in these contests all but ensure that at a clear victor won’t emerge in at least one or two of them on election night. Accordingly, some candidates, including Iowa GOPer Joni Ernst and Republican Thom Tillis and Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in North Carolina, are gearing up for weeks-long legal battles.
Meanwhile, up in Alaska, where Democratic Sen. Mark Begich appears to be making something of a comeback, the state’s time lag and relatively slow vote-counting process mean that a winner probably won’t be declared until November 5 at the earliest. In 2008, Begich wasn’t proclaimed the winner of his race against Sen. Ted Stevens until two weeks after Election Day. Though polls suggested Begich was headed to an easy victory, he ultimately only won by a point. Observers expect the Democrat’s race against Republican Dan Sullivan this year to be similarly close.
Add it all up, and it’s increasingly clear that political junkies hoping for a firm Senate result next Tuesday night will probably find themselves disappointed. At this point, the likeliest scenario for a definitive election night answer is a GOP wave. If Republican Scott Brown knocks off Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire early Tuesday night, for instance, that portends an excellent night for the Republicans and substantially increases the odds that the GOP will have 51 Senate seats in its column by the end of the night. Despite polls indicating a tightening race, however, Brown’s ceiling of support appears to be roughly 48 percent, and a new survey showing Shaheen with an eight point lead underscores the likelihood that she’ll ultimately hold on.
So fasten your seat belts — it could be a bumpy few weeks.
You know I am a tried and true TV watcher, and I get really sucked into the reality of my favorite shows sometimes.
For instance I about jumped out of my skin when the Mountain suddenly gained the upper hand during his epic battle with Prince Oberyn Martell. (NSFW gore.) And I was on the edge of my seat during that Terminus Slaughter Scene. (More gore.) But I have no doubt that all of that will seem like nothing compared to my stress level while waiting for the votes to be counted and the elections to finally be decided.
There is just so much hanging in the balance here.
Part of me wants to have confidence in the voting public. but then the other part of me thinks "Fuck those people they never know what's good for them." So you see I am conflicted.
It's an easy choice folks. Either we embrace the future, and cast our votes to move the country toward a brighter tomorrow. Or we allow fear and cowardice to rule the day and choose once again to give power to the party of "You have to be this white, and this male, to ride this ride."
How hard of a choice is that?
No kidding!
ReplyDeleteTotally appreciate your limited optimism, with concerns for a GOP nightmare scenario. After Dubya X2, my trust in the electorate and electoral system is not strong. That's the half empty glass.
ReplyDeleteMy half full glass reads that the pundits and pollsters have had their misses, especially in the Obama years. So, am hoping their clouded judgement gives all of them a 2012 "President" Romney moment.
I'm really hoping that the poll processes have still not caught up to the current telecommunications technology, and the numbers are therefore - incorrectly - skewed towards the GOP.
DeleteI suspect that many of the polls still rely too heavily on landlines and that the use of caller ID has made the traditional means of political polling essentially obsolete.
I hope. I hope. I hope.
I have already voted so I can sleep knowing I did my part.
ReplyDeleteAMEN and me too.
DeleteMy one dearest wish is that we'll see a sweaty Uncle Karl Rove running amok in panic through the control rooms of Faux News at the end of the night. Otherwise, I'm voting, volunteering at the polling place, going home, clamping my eyes shut, putting my fingers in my ears and screaming LALALALA!!! over and over until about Thursday. Rocking back and forth is optional.
ReplyDeleteI got a call last night from the local Democratic committee. I decided to answer even though I knew who it was. I assured the caller that, yes, I was absolutely going to vote on Tuesday and, yes, I was absolutely going to support the Democratic candidates.
ReplyDeleteI figured that, if the caller could volunteer her time to get out the vote, the least I could do was answer the phone and enthusiastically promise to show up at the polls!
Unfortunately, here in NY we don't have early voting and there are only a few very limited reasons you can request an absentee ballot. I'll just have to wait until Tuesday to do my part!
I'm so sick of the negative as to this election with everything and everyone saying Republicans are going to win. Total bullshit! Look at how they said the same thing when President Obama won BOTH times.
ReplyDeleteFuck them! Get out and VOTE! I've already done so and did my part - for Senator Begich and NOT for Parnell! Simple as that!
I'm voting and helping get folks out to vote, with the GWB election fiasco, that's all we can do and hope for the best. This one's like being on an old wooden roller coaster as it clacks and clacks up the hill and at the last second, you've got butterflies in your stomach. There's too much at stake this election, if you don't bother voting, then don't bother complaining if things go wrong.
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping Republicans are so sure on Nov 4 that they have the election in the bag, that many will not vote thinking their vote isn't needed.
ReplyDeleteI hope all their voter suppression tactics backfire---and especially here in Texas. I'm so sick of all these Republicans.
If there is a Republican takeover, then all the idiots who "want to take back my government " need to deal with what they wished for.
I am hoping the Democrats get their butts out there and VOTE.
ReplyDeleteThe Republicans have already said the first thing on their agenda if they take the senate is to impeach President Obama. So basically nothing will get done for two years and who knows what havoc they will cause in the mean time- a few wars, take away more women's rights.
One can only hope they haven't "fixed" too many voting machines and they wake up to their biggest nightmare-lose house and the senate.
My biggest concern is that Nate Silver's 538 site has predicted a GOP sweep all along, which is very disheartening.
ReplyDeleteI think the Dems biggest challenge has been the lack of support from the Obama Admin to clearly explain Obamacare to the country. They could've run public education ads to explain the facts, then all the political ads from the GOP would've been countered with the truth. Instead the Dems have allowed the negativity to rule the airways, and the general public has very little understanding about the law, which has turned some Obama supporters toward the GOP!
Why would Obama fight so hard for this law, then do very little to explain it and support it, it makes me want to scream!
I am so disgusted by the endless ads, the spiel that the Republicans are going to win all the elections, the numerous ways to disenfranchise the voters, i haven't answered my phone for a few weeks. yes, I will vote, I always do but I hate that money is such a part of it all. There are good politicians, I have worked for them and did what I could but the fact is, it's gotten so out of hand with the endless fund raising. Jon Stewart hit it on the nail with his segment, how many fucking emails do we have to get a day to send in money? It's not like I have a money tree to go pull some off of. I am hoping that people go vote, it's vitally important that we do. But I really don't need a reminder every 5 minutes, I got this.
ReplyDelete