Tuesday, May 03, 2016

Indiana Primary Open Thread. Update!

Courtesy of Slate: 

The Democrats 

There’s not much more to say at this point: Hillary Clinton is the prohibitive favorite to win her party’s nomination, and nothing that happens in Indiana—or anywhere else for that matter—is likely to change that. In fact, Clinton is a good bet to leave the Hoosier State in an even better position than when she arrived. Polling in Indiana has been a little hard to come by, but recent surveys show Hillary with a lead in the mid–single digits in the state, and Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight team peg her chances of winning Tuesday’s primary at 86 percent or better. 

Bernie Sanders, meanwhile, is already acting like a candidate who knows he won’t win the nomination, and a loss Tuesday—or even a narrow victory that nets him a handful of delegates—will make it that much more difficult for him to pretend otherwise. 

The Republicans 

Despite the sparse polling, nearly all of the data we do have points to a Donald Trump victory in the GOP primary, and potentially even a blowout. The celebrity billionaire is currently up by an average of more than 9 points in the RealClearPolitics rolling average and seems to be gaining steam. The two most recent major state surveys—taken after Ted Cruz and John Kasich announced their we-swear-it’s-not-an-alliance alliance in the state—found Trump up by 15 points or more. Based on the polls, Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight team peg Trump’s chances of winning Tuesday’s primary at 97 percent.

There are 83 delegates up for grabs on the Democrat's side, and 57 on the Republican side.

Of course I don't think the outcome will change much of anything as both Sanders and Cruz seem to have no real concept of reality.

Bernie is too damn stubborn to quit, and I don't think Ted knows what else to do with his time.

However after today I imagine that the pressure for them to get the hell out of the race will increase on both sides.

Which means that we actually are going to end up with a presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Holy crap!

Update: As predicted Donald Trump has won Indiana.

However between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders it is being called too close to call, though currently Hillary is in the lead.

Update 2: The votes separating Sanders and Clinton right now are so very few that it really does not matter which one wins as they will likely split the delegates right down the middle.

If the Sanders campaign gets the victory, even such a slim one, they will use it to challenge the idea that they are finished, while if the Clinton campaign ekes this one out they will simply continue to make the case that the bloated corpse of the Sanders campaign is now starting to reek a little.

Update 3: Well I was wrong. Cruz just "suspended" his campaign.

Now it is all Trump all the time.

Lucky us.

Update 4: Bernie Sanders has won this particular primary, but only with a few percentage points over Hillary so the delegates will be evenly split, as I mentioned earlier. 

78 comments:

  1. Be afraid of The Donald. This country also elected a B actor.

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    1. Anonymous3:04 PM

      Fact.

      Delete
    2. Spiritual Auntie3:18 PM

      I think people will mostly vote down ticket. Reps won't vote Trump and Dems won't vote Hillary. Sucks this time around.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous7:46 PM

      This Dem will proudly support Hillary! But we cannot be complacent!!

      Delete
    4. Anonymous8:11 PM

      X 2 !!!!!!!!!!

      Delete
  2. Well, it's possible Trump and Hillary won't win Indiana tonight. But unless Cruz and Sanders come away with gynormous leads, the landscape won't change much.

    I can tell you, neither Cruz nor Sanders would win Florida. Florida is going to tough it out - Hillary or Trump, and a recent poll said Hillary would win Florida (by a small margin so I am not taking that to the bank - we've got a lot of work to do!)

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  3. Caroll Thompson2:53 PM

    Polls close and the networks can call the races in less than 10 minutes. Last I saw, they were showing the votes already and so far (knock on wood), Hillary is kicking ass and taking names.

    I don't mind if Bernie stays in until California. Hillary did the same thing back in 2008. It's all his talk about a contested convention that I do not like. Plus the fact that he has not done one thing to help the Dems take the Senate or the House. That tells me the man is not a team player. It's all about him with that one.

    Seven minutes to go........

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    1. you have summed up exactly why I'm so angry at sanders. Staying in the race would have been great, but wanting a contested convention, lobbing bombs at the President and Clinton, and doing nothing for other Democrats-- those actions are unforgiveable.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous3:24 PM

      Carroll, why the heck don't Cruz and Kasich back out? It just gets more embarrassing for them. When Cruz named Fiorina for his veep, I knew that he was grasping at straws.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous7:47 PM

      Cruz is out!

      Delete
  4. Ok let me ask a serious question:

    Let's assume (hypothetically) that it's a virtual tie and Bernie is 10 pledged delegates behind Hillary after a landslide win in California.

    If it is clear that enough Independents that haven't voted in the primary would support Bernie (but not Hillary), do you think superdelegates would switch to Bernie?

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    1. Anonymous3:16 PM

      I'm an independent and so is my husband. We will both vote for Hillary. Never had any intention of voting for Bernie, either.

      Delete
    2. If there's one thing I know, it's that Trump would rather run against Hillary, rather than Bernie. He can throw the "kitchen sink" at Hillary, but what's there to throw at Bernie?

      I think Bernie is hanging in there hoping as the polls start showing up the results of the contest between Hillary and Trump, and Trump starts getting ahead of Hillary, the super delegates might start turning towards him.

      Just a guess...

      Delete
    3. Anonymous3:51 PM

      Debbie Wasserman Schultz: "If it were up to me, I’d exclude independents from Democratic primaries"
      http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/278469-dnc-chairwoman-if-up-to-me-id-exclude-independents-from
      Yeah I bet,bitch.
      Exclude tax funding for elections not involving independents and let the party pay for closed elections.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous3:59 PM

      Oh Ginger, do a little research. There's a lot he can throw at Bernie, starting with his socialism but (and I know, this isn't relevant) child support, honeymoon in Russia- things that would matter to the ignorati.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous4:07 PM

      What's the point of speculating on hypotheticals that are never going to happen? Democratic primaries and caucuses are ALL proportional; threre are no winner take alls. For Bernie to get within 10 pledged delegates of Hillary, he'd have to sweep all remaining states by dozens of percentage points each. He has a better chance of winning Powerball.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous5:21 PM

      Ginger, Bernie Sanders is STILL hiding his tax returns. What makes you think Trump wouldn't make a meal of that, plus Sanders' deadbeat dad and pornography checkered past and his non-contributory free ride in congress for a quarter century? Bernie Sanders has very little to run on and very little to recommend him as the leader of the free world. And that's why he'll drop out. Whatever his reasons for running, Jane Sanders has always been in charge. Without his multi-million-dollar consultants speaking for him Sanders would already be dead in the water. He's a tired old man with tired old talking points and consultants that have another agenda entirely- and that agenda is focused squarely on the DNC IMO.

      Delete
    7. Anonymous6:17 PM

      Bernie is 20 points behind in California, he will never have a landslide there. I know you want to say positive things about your chosen candidate, but be realistic when you say them.

      Delete
    8. Anonymous7:49 PM

      So,sick of talking about loserbabernie. There is no path; there is no math.

      Delete
    9. honestly my question was just if you think superdelegates would switch. Thank you, Ginger

      Delete
    10. Anonymous2:54 PM

      Andre - No, the super delegates have decades of allegiance to Hillary. Fact. Bernie has not even been a "Democrat" for a full year yet. No one in the party is loyal to him. As a lifelong Democrat who has volunteered for many campaigns, including campaigning for President Obama in a state beyond my home state, I feel quite confident in answer this question as a firm NO.

      Delete
  5. Anonymous3:13 PM

    Trump is an ass and will say anything he can think of against candidates opposing him!

    I fear for America and the stupidity of Americans!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Bernie is staying to improve the Democratic Party's platform.
    One need not win the nomination to make a difference. The platform is decided at the convention. The more Bernie supporters the better chance of having a liberal platform.
    Honestly, I'm a bit surprised that you're supporting Clinton.

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    1. Anonymous3:56 PM

      You know, the Democratic platform has always done very well without Bernie Sanders' input. Every four years at least one day of the convention is devoted to the platform and the Dems always do a fine job. Not that Bernie Sanders ever cared before to have any input.
      Beaglemom

      Delete
    2. Anonymous4:03 PM

      Lil' Annie Orphaned 3:14 PM
      "Bernie is staying to improve the Democratic Party's platform.
      One need not win the nomination to make a difference. The platform is decided at the convention. The more Bernie supporters the better chance of having a liberal platform."
      Exactly!
      Hellary needs to be held accountable on some shit on the way to her coronation.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous5:14 PM

      You said it, Beaglemom.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous7:15 PM

      And Barnie and Baby Jane will lose those votes on changes they want to the party platform by the same amount he will lose the votes for the Democratic presidential nomination.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous7:52 PM

      I have voted for every Democratic president in the last 40 years and I can tell you zippo about the platform points. Platform points? Seriously? Sure, win those, Bernie! (?)

      Delete
  7. Anonymous3:18 PM

    This Clinton supporter thinks Sanders should stay in through the DC primary, then get the hell out promptly afterward. And in the meantime, he needs to knock off criticism of the nominee, and try to convince his so-not-nice wife to do the same.

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    1. Anonymous7:52 PM

      Yes but he won't do that. Do you take him at his word or not?

      Delete
  8. Anonymous3:21 PM

    I'm really glad I never liked Bernie Sanders in any way, so I have nothing to be disappointed about. I always knew he was going nowhere but I didn't guess he'd try to take the DNC with him.

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  9. Anonymous3:42 PM

    Mama need a new pair of shoes
    -Baby Jane

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous3:54 PM

    When did the polls close in Indiana? At 5:00pm? Or is this all about exit polls?
    Beaglemom

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They have been closed for a little over an hour now.

      Delete
  11. Anonymous3:54 PM

    I think by now, it is not Bernie anymore that wants to run, but it is Jane, his wife, that wants him to run. I also think her goal is to try to do to the Democratic party what tRump is doing to the GOP. Is she actually a (closet) ReThug? I mean, she went on Fox Noise the other day...

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    1. Anonymous5:11 PM

      I think Jane Sanders was behind the run from the very beginning. Bernie Sanders has had decades to run and he hardly did a thing during that time. I think Jane Sanders is trying to set up HER comfortable old age.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous5:42 PM

      I am a Bernie supporter but I just want to take Jane for a salon day. I want to have her hair cut, colored, and "freshen her up" a bit. She needs some Botox in her forehead and she needs some serious makeup help.

      Don't even get me started on her wardrobe and her lack of physical fitness. She needs to be completely physically redone, because as she is now, I just can't imagine her as a first lady. Needs work, lots of it, and they can afford it so why let her wander around looking like a homeless person?

      Delete
    3. Anonymous7:54 PM

      Bernie supporter @5:42 - please tell me this was parody! You should be worried about her awful ideas and attitude, not her pathetic appearance!

      Delete
  12. Anonymous3:57 PM

    Hillary -4,000 :^(

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  13. Anonymous4:03 PM

    Keep in mind Bernie $ander$ campaigned hard in Indiana as if his wife's life counted on it. Secretary Hillary Clinton moved on to other states.

    How much did Bernie spend in Indiana?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous7:54 PM

      Millions and millions!

      Delete
    2. Anonymous7:24 AM

      Hillary spent ZERO. No Clinton ads whatsoever. She spent no money period. Saving $$$ for the General, if she gets that far.

      Delete
  14. Anonymous4:19 PM

    "With 26 primaries already completed by March 25, Hillary had garnered votes from just 10.9% of the registered voters—in the primaries that lean right—versus Trump’s 9.4%.
    A mandate for Hillary this ain’t."
    http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2016/05/progressives-dont-let-friends-vote-neocon.html

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    Replies
    1. LOL. To use one of the races you ignore, New York, Clinton got 1.054 million votes to Trump's 524K. Twice as many.

      Delete
  15. Anonymous4:33 PM

    Fiorina sounds like the campaign is calling it quits

    CRUZ SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN ?
    I guess that means Trump wins

    Now Trump can start concentrating on the General Election

    WHILE Hillary Clinton is still fighting off Jane Sanders who keeps nipping at Hillary's heels

    By the way Trump, Mrs. Cruz is a good looking woman and doesn't look plastic like somebody else.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Oh dear, poor old Teddy just suspended his campaign. Bye, bye.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Anonymous4:51 PM

    Question was asked:

    HOW MUCH MONEY DID HILLARY SPEND IN ADDS IN INDIANA?

    HOW ABOUT JANE?

    One spent zero $

    While the other spent $1,500,000 of Other People's Money so Bernie can hear his name a few more times.

    $$$$$$

    Wall Street Journal:
    Bernie Sanders Seeks Indiana Win as Hillary Clinton Looks to November

    Even with a win, Vermont senator unlikely to meaningfully reduce front-runner’s delegate advantage

    ....While Tuesday’s balloting was in Indiana, Mrs. Clinton spent no money on TV ads and appeared at just three campaign rallies in the state. Campaign officials, braced for a defeat, said they were husbanding funds raised for the primary campaign to spend later this spring and summer in states likely to be competitive in the fall....

    Mr. Sanders was hoping a victory could help his fundraising and fuel his argument for staying in the race, but even a win wasn’t likely to meaningfully reduce her advantage.

    Mr. Sanders made a strong play for Indiana’s 83 pledged delegates, spending $1.5 million in TV ads and headlining a half-dozen rallies. State rules were in his favor, allowing independents, who typically favor him, to participate in the primary.

    Read more at
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-seeks-indiana-win-as-hillary-clinton-looks-to-november-1462317357#:RwfVuZRS9PDOkA

    ReplyDelete
  18. Anonymous4:59 PM

    If Secretary Clinton attacks Bernie Sanders then she risks bringing the Democratic Party together to support her.

    While Bernie and Jane wants to tear apart the Democratic Party allowing Donald Trump to become POTUS. By continuing, Bernie and Jane are creating hard feelings between their followers and Hillary.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Anonymous5:07 PM

    They mentioned on tv the elegance and grace with which Cruz got out of the race.

    On the other hand,

    Jane: "GIT OFF MY LAWN"

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    1. Anonymous5:57 PM

      Bernie: I would listen to Jane

      Delete
  20. Bernie supporters are not going to fall in line for Hillary.

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    1. Anonymous5:39 PM

      Oh bullshit.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous5:48 PM

      Fall in line? Not today, not tomorrow while their supporters still has money for Jane to fleece.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous5:57 PM

      Why would you even think we would? Bernie was the alternative, just as Barack Obama was.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous7:16 PM

      5:48pm

      We're falling in line for Trump. You betcha baby! How 'bout you? Who you votin' fer?

      Delete
    5. Anonymous7:58 PM

      Vote for Dr. Jill Stein then, Peggy! And be sure to ask Jill about the "dark site" she was held in by "16 guards" during the 2012 presidential debates, too - as she tweeted in April.

      Delete
  21. Anonymous5:38 PM

    Cruz dropped out for a reason and not to concede to Trump. The GOP has something up its sleeve. It's not like them just to give up and say "whatever, let's just let Hillary have it". There is something afoot...I'd bet my bottom dollar.

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    1. Anonymous9:41 PM

      You are probably correct. We will see what happens next.

      dowl

      Delete
    2. Anonymous10:04 AM

      Cruz was afraid of what Donald would bring up about his daddy so he got out fast.

      Delete
  22. Anonymous5:45 PM

    This is not an insult so whoever is touchy about this, you can pull your panties out of your ass.

    Look at Melania's head and eyes while Donald is giving his Indiana speech. Her head is still and all you see is her dark iris going back and forth within all that black makeup. Reminds me of Batman's beady eyes.

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    1. Anonymous6:01 PM

      I was actually thinking she looked weird like she is a raccoon with a black mask.

      Delete
    2. I just Google Imaged 'Donald Trump Indiana Speech,' and is it just me? Don't all three women standing around him look like they should be pretending to play guitars in a Robert Palmer video?

      Delete
  23. Anonymous6:17 PM

    Good one from Ben Howe, "Ann Coulter, Gateway Pundit, Laura Ingraham, Michael Savage, Sean Hannity, Bill O’Reilly, Sarah Palin, Breitbart News, Matt Drudge, and scores of others, too many to list here. They are all people that at one time or another caused me to bury my face in my hands. Caused me more than once to say “wait…we ARE the stupid party?”

    I’m done with it and I’m done with all of them. They are in this for money and power and influence and they think Donald Trump is their ticket. Hell, they may be right. And I’ll go down in flames with my principles before I join them."
    http://www.redstate.com/aglanon/2016/05/02/i-lied-to-myself-for-years/

    ReplyDelete
  24. Anonymous6:34 PM

    Damn, the vitriol directed at Jane and Bernie Sanders at this site is of the sort usually reserved for Sarah Palin.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous7:11 PM

      The vitriol directed at Hillary from Bernie, Jane, and his bots is usually directed at GOP candidates by Democrats, but then Bernie isn't really a Democrat is he.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous7:12 PM

      Isn't America great? You can actually say what you feel - at least until for now.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous8:00 PM

      I will not be buying Jane and Bernie's forthcoming book about their revolution, either. Sorry, Jarnie!

      Delete
  25. Anonymous8:28 PM

    The Latest from the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey

    https://www.rand.org/blog/2016/04/the-latest-from-the-rand-presidential-election-panel.html

    ReplyDelete
  26. Anonymous8:30 PM

    Bernie Sanders Wins Indiana Primary, Still Faces Uphill Delegate Battle

    Vermont senator unlikely to meaningfully reduce Clinton’s delegate advantage

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-seeks-indiana-win-as-hillary-clinton-looks-to-november-1462317357#:duNR5iaRshEQUA

    ReplyDelete
  27. Anonymous8:35 PM

    Granny-mouth-toothless sarah has a new video in her anti-facebook page, spewing some shit about uniting. I didn't listen to it, just watched her toothless-looking mouth move.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Anonymous8:38 PM

    yep...granny forgot her dentures

    ReplyDelete
  29. Anonymous8:51 PM

    Maybe I'm the only that doesn't give a shit how much $$ who spent where. I vote my conscience; always have.

    This election is beyond ridiculous, and all to replace the best leader we ever had in my lifetime.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Anonymous4:31 AM

    For once, Palin didn't back a loser. Bet she's feeling pretty good about that.
    Let's see how she feels come November.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Raz Lemons6:13 AM

    Has hell frozen over ? Bahahahahaha MSNBC was wrong, Nate Silver @ 86% was wrong The all seeing Jesse was wrong ROTFLMBO , There has been a delegate correction in Missouri and with Indiana tonight there are only 204 pledged delegates between Bernie and Hillary and with W. Virgina and Kentucky next that margin will become even smaller , The pre ordained Superdelegates are now sitting up in their seats and thinking WTF is going on ? With the Republican nomination all but over all eyes are going to be on the Democrats and there is only one candidate who doesn't like to be looked at too closely because once people see their flip flopping on issues and their right leaning policies the less they like her. The Bern is heating up and its going to be a scorcher in California : )

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Anonymous8:11 AM

      It seems you aren't very good at math.
      Hillary only needs 166 more delegates to sew up the nomination and she will get those and more in California where she is leading Bernie by 20 points.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous8:55 AM

      Sorry 8:11. It's your math that's incorrect. As the communications director for the DNC pointed out to Jake Tapper last week, the superdelegates don't vote until the convention and can't be counted yet. fivethirtyeight.com is where the most accurate pledged delegate count is.

      Clinton can't get the 2,383 needed to win the nomination from pledged delegates in the remaining primaries. She'll need superdelegate votes to make up the difference. By the Democratic Party's own convention rules that is by definition a contested convention.

      Latest news is Kasich is dropping out, too so there's no horse race left in the Repub party. Watch how fast the media drops superdelegates from their delegate totals and declares the Dem race is now a real horse race. This is an outstanding bit of good fortune for Sanders who'll get the media attention he deserves and bad news for Clinton because she could lose if she doesn't get her head back in the match she's playing instead of the next one.

      Delete
  32. Anonymous12:16 PM

    I pray Secretary Clinton works on becoming the Democratic presidential nominee instead of worrying about Donald Trump and the General Election

    ReplyDelete
  33. Raz Lemons12:19 PM

    8:11 MICHIGAN : ) Not sure what polls you're looking at but the ones I'm seeing ( the same ones I counted on in Michigan ) say Bernie takes down Hillary in Cali : )

    ReplyDelete

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