Sunday, May 22, 2016

Moody's Analytics predicts a Hillary victory over Trump in the general. They have predicted every election correctly since 1980.

Courtesy of The Hill:

President Obama’s strong approval rating is bolstering Democratic chances of holding the White House, according to a closely followed election model. 

Moody’s Analytics is forecasting that the Democratic nominee, who is widely expected to be Hillary Clinton, will win the presidency in November over presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump. 

“President Obama’s approval rating has crossed over the important 50 percent threshold for the first time in almost four years,” said Dan White, a Moody’s economist who oversees the model. 

 Moody’s latest model shows for the third straight month that the Democratic nominee would take 332 electoral votes compared with 206 for the Republican nominee. The model has predicted every election correctly since it was created in 1980.

Well this is good news for the Democrats.

However, not to be Debbie Downer here, I think it important to remember that this election cycle has literally defied every pundit's predictions since it started.

Having said that I think that Hillary's chances are quite strong just so long as we maintain the kind of turnout we enjoyed in the last two presidential election cycles.

And you can predict THAT will be what the Republicans will work to prevent right up until November.


  1. Anonymous11:43 AM

    "God will do the right thing on Election Day."
    --$arah Palin 2008

    Man oh man, do I hope she's his veep nod.
    Another round of smite-ing from above.

    1. Anonymous11:50 AM

      Oh, that would be so sweet.

      I read a comment on some blog that choosing Sarah Palin would be Trumps way of guaranteeing he'd never get impeached. Nobody would want Sarah to step up to the presidency. Shudder.

    2. Anonymous12:33 PM

      The Palin mob has dropped off the radar. Fire in the cockpit? Catastrophic explosion? You are our Black Box Gryphen. What's up?

    3. Anonymous12:49 PM

      Or, has she been directed by the Trump Team to keep her mouth shut, off Facebook and to shut her kids down?

      And, for what reason? Haha!

    4. Anonymous12:54 PM

      Maybe she's tryin' that book learnin,' thing again. Double dog guarantee she'll get it wrong and make an @ss out of herself. Girl can't help it.

    5. Anonymous1:10 PM

      @ 12:33. Shhhhhhhhhhh! It's been so nice around here.

    6. Anonymous11:21 PM

      With Sarah's dying breath she was murmuring some thing about Trump and Ryan. Before that it was a sad Mother's Day when she introduced the unmarried son's pregnant punching bag and posing with old Sally and baby poop. Is that the end of the family value fakers?

      What shut her up? She is also ending the torturous way she used her daughter, the abstinent one?

      Would Ivanka and Donald seriously consider giving her a make over and trying to bring her and the myth about her family back on his team?

  2. Anonymous11:53 AM

    Obama’s Former Speechwriter Tweets Top 5 Reasons Not To Vote For Trump, And They’re Perfect
    1) Profited off of 9/11
    2) Rooted for the housing crash
    3) Ran a fraudulent university
    4) Sued for tax dodging
    5) Is a dick

    1. Anonymous12:48 PM

      I'd change #5 - is a dick w/a 'tiny' one!

      Hell, next thing we know, he'll be dropping his drawers to actually show us his size!!!

    2. "5) Is a dick"
      With tiny hands and short little fingers.

  3. Anonymous11:55 AM

    Trump Doesn’t Want His Supporters To Know His REAL Stance On Gun-Free Zones

  4. Anonymous11:59 AM

    Once upon a time, when Karl Rove was working for the Bushes in Texas, he staged a break in at the Republican headquarters so he could go to the media and claim that it was the Dirty Democrats.

    Remember that Donald Trump was not only a reality TV star, he is the master of manipulation when it comes to the media. A break in would be small potatoes to that guy. His rallies were famous for their violent confrontations. Remember that Trump was part of the TV wrestlmania, too.

    I don't put anything past him. He lies with such ease that no one bothers to contradict him. When they do, it doesn't seem to matter. Trump dodged a debate and held a rally to raise money for veterans instead. It took quite a while for the Washington Post to confront the Trump campaign and ask exactly how much money was raised and donated and where it went. And there still hasn't been an answer.

    So please remain active and don't let Trump steal this one with his theatrics.

    1. Anonymous1:10 PM

      He also pocketed that money.
      "Ignore it, it will go away."

      A complacent media that couldn't investigate anything if their life depended on it. All sensationalism.

    2. Anonymous2:02 PM

      The media and TV (especially cable stations!) have done a huge disservice to America in pushing the election of Trump! I name CNN, MSNBC, NBC most specifically!

      All media and TV - owned by corporate America - are pushing the election of Trump! And, they are rich Republicans!

      Thank God, America is seeing through all of them - the nasty Republican party that hasn't learned a thing in many years!

      It's going to be a kick in the butt watching another Republican go down! Especially an ego driven maniac the likes of Trump!

      Vote for Hillary Clinton! She's far, far better educated and experienced due to having held the governmental offices of Senator (New York) and Secretary of State.

      Plus, she is the wife of a past POTUS and was able to view everything that went on during those years/terms.

      Plus, I'll wager she provided help and advice to Bill Clinton back then as he'll be doing for her now and in her future.

      Two Presidents Clinton in the White House! Couldn't get much better than that! First woman as POTUS as well as the first time two Presidents occupied the White House! We are watching history unfold in front of us!

      Bill Clinton has been respected and well regarded throughout our country and the world during the past years and is only now being chewed up because of the Republicans trying to (once again) defeat another Democrat for POTUS - Hillary Clinton (as well as Bill, a former Democratic POTUS!).

      Republicans are scared to death having BOTH of them in the White House!!!

      You know - just thought of something - wouldn't Bill Clinton be a terrific pick as her VP? Boy, would that get the Republican's blood boiling!

    3. Anonymous4:10 PM

    4. Anonymous6:23 PM

      Bill can't be VP.

      I also think it was a big mistake for Hillary to tell voters she'll be putting Bill in charge of anything. Voters are already leery of a Clinton dynasty. Bill should be working in the role of "First Gentleman" doing what First Ladies do. One thing they don't do is publicly make policy like being in charge of the economy, jobs, trade, etc.

      So she made a major mistake by stating he'll have an active role in her administration.

  5. Anonymous12:11 PM

    Hillary is going to hand Trump his ass.
    Mark my words.

    1. Anonymous12:25 PM


    2. Anonymous1:04 PM

      There is no etch-a-sketch with Trump. While campaigning for the general election, he will continue to be the same dick he has been during the primaries. Plus he will have only one opponent.

  6. Anonymous12:12 PM

    @Anonymous 11:43 AM

    "God will do the right thing on Election Day."
    --$arah Palin 2008
    And God did.

  7. Anonymous12:37 PM


    Although Bernie is my first choice,I've really come around to Clinton as a solid option.
    With a lot of soul searching,I've come to realize that I've been acting like a royal douche.I'm not good at saying sorry,but this is my apology to you all.

    1. Anonymous2:32 PM

      Wow, if your apology is for real, welcome to the adult world.

    2. Anonymous2:41 PM

      You never need to apologize for who you support politically, but the douche part ...yeah.

  8. Anonymous12:40 PM

    I really hope Moody's Analytics is correct. I find myself thinking of leaving this country if Trump wins. It will be much more disastrous than having W as president. I think he could bring about an end to the world. Walking, talking ignorance all wrapped up in a self promoting reality star with orange skin.

    1. Anonymous1:43 PM

      Instead of worrying and thinking of leaving our country, get out there and assure that Trump doesn't make it and Hillary does!

      It's going to take the work of ALL of us - much as was done for the two winning elections of President Obama and VP Biden!

      We worked hard and took both elections and are so very thankful for having the wonderful guidance of the leaders of our country - President Obama and VP Biden!

      Remember too - President Obama's approval rating is now above 50!! Yea!!! That in itself is very positive for the election of Hillary Clinton.

      I can hardly wait until President Obama and VP Biden begin campaigning for Mrs. Clinton and against The Donald!

    2. Anonymous12:22 AM

      Clinton is an asshole so are her supporters.

  9. Anonymous12:45 PM

    As I've noted many times on this blog, I see Hillary Clinton as the winner as the next leader of our country. She has my vote!

    And, I've also said that Democrats need to get the voters out - much as they did for both races that President Obama WON! We took Republicans by large margins both times and will again!

    The Republicans are disliked horribly on all levels of the government - nationally, state and local! They've run us in to debt - remember, President Obama doesn't spend the money - the U.S. Congress does!

    Plus, their support of Donald Trump is doing them more harm than good. The guy is the worst thing Americans could pick as their leader. He's nothing more than a blow-hard, ego driven , sexually devoid, elderly, obese, typically white, fat guy!

    Plus, he's looked at as a joke and is very much disliked throughout the country and world! Just ask Scotland folks and many, many others! And, he's known as a first- -class jerk that gets his tiny little feelings hurt very easily!

  10. Anonymous1:12 PM

    One Chart Shows Why All The Trump Leading Clinton Polls Are Completely Worthless

    What the media isn't saying about their national polls showing Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton is that they are worthless.

    ...On a nearly daily basis, national polls are being released showing the presidential race as a tie or with Trump having a small lead over Hillary Clinton. The media are passing off these polls as the current state of the presidential race, but, in reality, what they are measuring is a small bump for Donald Trump that is coming from Republicans rallying around their nominee.

    Here is a chart of a Gallup poll from 2008 showing John McCain leading Barack Obama, after he had clinched the Republican nomination while Obama and Clinton were in the final stages of the Democratic primary.

    Reality Slaps Republicans As One Number Shows Why Trump Is Likely To Lose

    The average of polls contains a wake-up call for Republicans that shows why Donald Trump remains likely to lose in November.

    ....What you will notice is that Donald Trump never climbs above 43%. Hillary Clinton has the potential to get into the 50s, but Trump has been stuck at 43% or below since July of 2015.

    John McCain got 45.6% in the vote in 2008. Mitt Romney got 47.1% of the popular vote in 2012. Donald Trump is on pace to perform 3-4 points worse than Romney and McCain each did in 2008 and 2012. Trump is also currently enjoying a post presumptive nominee bump in the polls, which is likely to evaporate once the Democratic primary ends.

    The average of polls shows that Trump has never led Clinton with a majority of the electorate.

  11. Anonymous1:16 PM

    Trump Suggests Only Those Who Give Him Money Will Have White House Access

    When asked about a list of Republican mega donors who are refusing to give him money, Trump said, “These are people that won’t have access to the White House, and they understand that like they do every other candidate. They endorse people like Jeb Bush. They would have had total control over Jeb. They would have had total control over many of the other people.”

    Trump’s answer was an admission that his White House would be a pay to play operation.

    Trump isn’t self-funding his campaign in the fall. He claimed during the Fox and Friends interview that he would be putting “a lot of money in” for the fall, but the truth is that Trump hasn’t donated a dime to his presidential campaign. The presumptive nominee has been loaning his campaign money, which he will get back from the donations of his supporters.

    Not since the days of Richard Nixon has the United States witnessed a candidate who has been so blatant about his corruption. Donald Trump is a corrupt candidate who is under the delusion that government is like a business. Trump thinks that he can bring all of his shady business practices to the White House, and it will make America great.

    What Trump said to the mega-donors on Fox News was a shakedown. Trump told the big money Republicans to pay up or get shut out if he wins the White House. Contrary to his boasts, Donald Trump doesn’t have an extra billion dollars lying around. Trump can’t afford to fund his own general election campaign.

    1. Anonymous2:14 PM

      Thank you for this.

  12. Anonymous1:32 PM

    CNN Busts The Media For Creating And Pushing Bogus Divided Democrats Narrative

    ...Carl, we need a reality check here. Are political reporters and TV producers exaggerating this Dem civil war?

    BERNSTEIN: Yes. We’re hardly up to 1968 and Abbie Hoffman and the Yippies and blood in the streets of Chicago. I think there’s abundant evidence that the Democrats will coalesce around their nominee, presumably Hillary Clinton, maybe Bernie Sanders….This is hardly a huge schism the way it’s being played on the air.

    1. Anonymous2:02 PM

      Thanks for bringing that forward.
      You'd think people were getting beaten with chairs or some such nonsense...

  13. Anonymous2:26 PM

    There's a huge difference here, Jesse. Moody has predicted most of the races AFTER the nominee was already signed, sealed, and delivered. What they're saying is that [the] presumptive nominee will win- not necessarily that Clinton will.

    I've been a faithful daily reader for nearly a decade. But you having your butt "Berned" lately is making me skip days for the first time ever. I've read IM when I was in labor, when I was waiting in line at Kroger, and everywhere in between. But if you don't tone down your Bernie rhetoric, I'm out. You've always been such a live and let live type of guy. What is it about this one nice, if slightly misguided old man that chaps your shapely ass SO bad?

    1. Anonymous2:36 PM

      You read a political blog while in labor? That's just so...sad.

    2. Anonymous2:37 PM

      It's Gryphen's blog. Who the fuck are you to dictate the content like asking for a ransom for leaving. Don't let the door hit ya in the ass!

    3. Anonymous2:39 PM

      That's your choice, now run along and take care of your child instead of trolling the internet.

    4. Anonymous3:04 PM

      Your self-importance is appalling

    5. Anonymous3:49 PM

      And these replies in a nutshell are why Gryphen's blog has degraded into a puspool.

      It's the hiding behind the Anonymous posts. When Gryphen allowed Anonymous posting it opened the flood gates to trolls and no one was accountable for what they said. That unaccountability can be laid squarely at Gryphen's door.

      Those anonymous posters have systematically been attacking anyone that has the integrity and the honesty to post as themselves. And they have slowly been disappearing, disgusted by what has happened to a once social and courteous blog.

      The hate rhetoric has gotten out of control. Especially the Bernie Bashing. That is also Gryphen's fault as he has modeled it in his posts. Rather than keep things civil he's insulted, denigrated and attacked Bernie Sanders and his supporters. With that example the Anonymous brigade has opened season on anyone that disagrees with them.

      This has become a Hillary only love fest and woe be to anyone that might imply that the empress has no clothes.

      Pretty soon the handfull of long time posters that identify themselves will be gone and nothing will be left but a bunch of Anonymous polarizing trolls.

      Hope you're happy, Gryphen. I guess you're fine as long as they are ass-kissing Hillary along with you. But what happens when they don't agree with you, Gryphen? What happens when they hijack your blog and turn it into a cesspool?

      The only way you'll get your blog back is to require everyone to register using a name of some kind and an e-mail that you can keep private but use to identify them if they get out of line. Short of that, this place is no better than the pee pond.

    6. Anonymous4:19 PM

      I've noticed that too. It seems that Gryphen has some rather strong feelings about Bernie. It's totally, ok, and fine, and of course he can express himself in whatever way he wants on his blog, but it still seems rather curious the tone that he takes lately.

      I am and have been an avid reader of this blog and nothing as temporary as a political campaign will shake me from my seat. I suggest you stop taking yourself so seriously, Anonymous2:26 PM. Skip the Bernie posts and enjoy the others. This is all just a moment in time, and emotions are on a high pitch everywhere.

      You and we all need to just chill. Participate as much as you want, or don't. But really, if you abandon this blog for the ridiculous reason that Gryphen favors Hillary and he's all 'glass half full' on Bernie, well then you are not very bright, pretty shallow and probably don't contribute much to the conversation, here or anywhere, so really, it's ok for you to just go the fuck away. Seriously.

    7. Anonymous4:31 PM

      3:49 PM - Again, leave! You have no right to dictate to Gryph how he runs his blog. Get it?? H-I-S. Holy shit; just go away.

    8. Anonymous4:35 PM

      It's hardly a cesspool.

      Don't be so dramatic. Gryphen lets in all kinds of comments including your criticism of his blog and him, personally.

      It certainly would help your cause if you could refrain from ad hominem attacks on Clinton as you're scolding gryphen for criticizing sanders.

    9. Anonymous6:07 PM

      Start your own blog if you don't like Gryphen's.

    10. Anonymous6:35 PM

      Lol. I'm with you 3:49.

      Bunch of fucking babies. And most are post menapausal women, esp the low rent ones.

    11. Anonymous6:47 PM

      I'm the original poster of this comment.

      Wow, Jesse. Your foot soldiers have their Sunday panties in a wad, don't they.

      And to the person who thinks it's "sad" that I {GASP!} read a b...b...BLOG...while in labor...exactly what IS the appropriate course of reading when trying to extricate a nine pound, fourteen ounce infant from one's Lady Card during a twenty hour labor- without so much as a Tylenol much less an epidural? PLEASE, tell me, so that if I have more children I know the right thing to read! Oh, wait. SHOULD I have more children? I'm sure you know the answer to that, too.

      God. You people are not doing Gryphen any favors if your goal is to keep his readership intact. I can nearly understand Gryphen's candor, after all- this is his house and I'm a guest. But so are you. Most of you are being as rude, immature, and ridiculous as if your name rhymes with Pistol Balin.

    12. Anonymous9:00 PM

      You are completely valid in your criticism. I'll go a strp further and say this blog started really speeding down hill when Sarah was no longer interesting and it started to focus on Bristol more amd more.
      Someone called her baby a "future cum receptacle" a few weeks ago. Bristol is a hypocrite, a liar and she's definitely pulled some shady shit. The level of vitrol and name calling? Slut? Whore? Insinuating that her father is fathering her children?
      It's pretty fucking gross.
      And if you comment and kind of protest at the harsh verbiage, the name calling that ensues? Disgusting.

  14. Anonymous2:38 PM

    The minority vote in this country will decide the winner and that will be Hillary Clinton.

    1. Anonymous3:51 PM

      The Independent voters will decide as they have always done. And they weren't allowed to vote in the primaries. If they had, Hillary might not be the nominee. That means she is no sure thing once those Independent voters are allowed to vote. IF they were Sanders supporters and have to choose between Trump and Clinton, both of home have high unfavorables, they may not vote at all or may be wild cards. They could turn on Clinton and vote for Trump out of disgust at the DNC. No one can predict that because they have not been allowed to vote in any of the primaries.

    2. Anonymous4:36 PM

      Ask president Romney how much independents count.

    3. Anonymous5:32 PM

      3:51 -
      I don't understand all the anger that I've seen online and in the media this year from Independent voters because they're not permitted to vote in primaries.

      If you make a conscious decision not to join any kind of organization, you can't expect to be given the privilege of choosing that organization's leaders or representatives.

      I'm not sure why so many Independent voters are suddenly complaining about something that is just common sense.

    4. Anonymous6:31 PM

      The minorities must be so happy you have decided their votes for them.

  15. Anonymous3:13 PM

    O/T but Our President is on the move, representing us so well in the world!

    Welcome To Vietnam, President Obama!

    Video: @POTUS arrives to red carpet and flowers in Hanoi. #ObamainAsia

  16. Anonymous4:26 PM

    Meet a ‘Sanders Democrat’ Running for Congress With a Real Chance of Unseating a GOP Millionaire

  17. Anita Winecooler5:38 PM

    Of course Donald will either ignore this poll or call it rigged. He's got a poll fetish and follows all of them. Poor low energy Donald.

    1. Anonymous6:15 PM

      I like that, "poor, low energy Donald". I like to refer to him as Orange Trumpy or Dangerous, dinky Donald.

  18. Randall5:47 PM

    Yeah, well...
    if Democrats don't
    none of the polls make shit to a tree.

  19. Anonymous9:59 PM

    This University has been right since 1975, and they predict Bernie will be president:


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It just goes directly to their thighs.