Thursday, September 22, 2016

After having arguably one of the worst weeks ever, Hillary Clinton's lead in the poll numbers seems stable.

Courtesy of Yahoo: 

Hillary Clinton kept her large lead in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll Wednesday, holding a 6-point advantage over Donald Trump in a four-way race. 

In the prior two installments of the four-way NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which included Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Clinton held a 9-point lead in early August and a 6-point lead in mid-July. 

"Despite arguably the worst few weeks of her candidacy, the fundamentals still point toward a Hillary Clinton victory," said Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

There are of course a few outliers like Rasmussen which currently  shows Trump up by five points.

However it should be noted that Rasmussen is very pro-GOP and also showed Romney ahead of Obama in 2012.

I would predict that the next big event to impact the polling numbers will be Monday's debate.

And I have every confidence that once they mop up what is left of Trump afterward that we will see the numbers drift further in Hillary's direction.

60 comments:

  1. Anonymous11:39 AM

    The American People Stand Up And Call Out The Media For Being Too Easy On Trump

    The American people are watching the way the media is treating Donald Trump, and they aren't liking what they are seeing. A new Pew Poll found that twice as many people think the media is too easy on Trump compared to 2008.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09/22/american-people-stand-call-media-easy-trump.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The media are being easy on Trump simply because it's in their best interest to keep this thing somewhat interesting. Think about it, the media wants you to think this is a super close horse race so that you'll keep tuning in. The Republicans want you to think that it's close so their candidate doesn't look like a loser and the Democrats want you to think it's close so that you show up at the polls.

      Delete
  2. Anonymous11:40 AM

    51 Companies Are Pledging Over $650 Million In Refugee Support, White House Announces

    ...Coming together to show solidarity and compassion while world leaders meet for the U.N. General Assembly session, the companies – which include Matercard, Facebook, Twitter, Johnson & Johnson, and yogurt maker Chobani – will use the money to promote, sustain and continue education, employment and financial services all across the world, and alleviate suffering to over 6 million refugees:

    Today, 51 U.S. companies — which represent more than 2.5 million employees, more than $775 billion in annual revenue, and more than $3.2 trillion in market capitalization — have stepped up and are standing with the Administration to demonstrate that private sector innovation and resources can make a difference and catalyze real solutions. Together, they have committed to investing, donating, and raising more than $650 million.

    The hefty pledge is just part of the White House’s goal of $3 billion in humanitarian aid, and the announcement was made just as President Obama hosted a refugee summit with the leaders of Jordan, Mexico, Sweden, Germany, Canada and Ethiopia, countries that have taken in thousands of refugees from Syria and other war-torn states.

    http://addictinginfo.org/2016/09/22/51-companies-are-pledging-over-650-million-in-refugee-support-white-house-announces/

    ReplyDelete
  3. aj Billings11:42 AM

    Being publicly called a Loser for Donald Trump is the most shameful thing possible, as the man is a sociopathic narcissist.

    He's even worse than the Village Idiot of Wasilla, if that's possible.

    I can't wait to hear the weeping, whining, and gnashing of teeth from the alt-right, the Aryan nations, , the teaparty nutcases, and the Christian Dominionist fanatics who want Biblical Sharia law.


    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous11:42 AM

    Please do not get overconfident!!!!

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2016/09/22/trump-oh-county-chair-resigns-after-racist-comments.html?via=desktop&source=copyurl

    This is a race that has to be fought every second of every day till Nov. We all know it's the difference between democracy as we know it and a dark and racist police state. And that's just the beginning if Trump gets in.

    PLEASE DO NOT GET OVERCONFIDENT.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous12:02 PM

      The sky is falling mentality grates on my nerves. I have enough anxiety. No one is resting on their laurels.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous12:04 PM

      Sorry wrong link, meant this:

      http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-reports-of-a-clinton-rebound-have-been-greatly-exaggerated/

      Delete
    3. Anonymous12:55 PM

      No reason for anxiety we will all know who wins after the election happens, the rest of this is just theatre. People know who they are going to vote for by now.

      Delete
  5. Anonymous11:44 AM

    I just wish the press/media would publish this information nationwide instead of all of them continually saying Hillary Clinton is behind in the polls.

    The media favors Trump and I can hardly wait until November when Hillary Clinton cleans his clock just like President Obama did to Romeny - in spite of what the media/press kept saying as to the polls. They lied the entire time!!

    We are seeing the same thing all over again.

    Vote Hillary Clinton!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous11:57 AM

      Very good observation about the polls/election night in 2012. It was the best feeling to see the early states going strongly for Obama and then watching Rove sputter when Ohio also went for Obama.

      Delete
  6. Anonymous11:45 AM

    Trump could win these key battleground states — but Clinton would still beat him

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/trump-could-win-these-key-battleground-states-but-clinton-would-still-beat-him/

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anonymous11:46 AM

    This generation of Americans could crush Trump to a pulp — if they show up on November 8

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/this-generation-of-americans-could-crush-trump-to-a-pulp-if-they-show-up-on-november-7/

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous11:49 AM

    Rasmussen also has Johnson and Stein factored in, so that is averaged into a different collection...

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

    ...and not the DT v HC only average.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

    So there's that.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Al Giordano ‏@AlGiordano
    The only number one can really know is how many phone calls he or she made or doors he or she knocked. The rest is noise.

    ReplyDelete
  10. National polls are meaningless. The race comes down to four or five states. How is Clinton doing in Ohio? In Florida? In Iowa? In Pennsylvania? In North Carolina?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Worth repeating:
      "Al Giordano ‏@AlGiordano
      The only number one can really know is how many phone calls he or she made or doors he or she knocked. The rest is noise."

      Delete
    2. Anonymous1:19 PM

      Not true, 11:53 AM! You need a government lesson!

      Delete
    3. Anonymous1:35 PM

      Clinton's behind in state polls in 4 out of the 5 states you named.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous2:04 PM

      Polls are done on land lines. Nobody has land lines anymore except old people. Old people skew conservative. Polls don't mean dickm

      Delete
    5. Anonymous12:03 AM

      Right now New Hampshire is the deciding state and it leans Hillary. That gives her 272.

      Delete
    6. Maybe if people on here would trash progressives in general and Bernie Sanders in particular more, it would help Clinton's chances?

      Delete
  11. Anonymous11:55 AM

    Nate Silver says I should be nervous about the election. Here’s why I’m not too nervous.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/09/22/nate-silver-says-i-should-be-nervous-about-the-election-heres-why-im-not-too-nervous

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous1:17 PM

      Why pay any attention to the words of Nate Silver? Hillary Clinton is ahead in many of the polls throughout the country. 'Some' are just focusing on the very few that reflect Trump ahead.

      Remember, the press/media and cable TV are pro Trump and anti Hillary! Much like they were w/Obama and Romney last go around.

      They are lying this time as they did the last time President Obama ran and won by a large margin! The Republicans were besides themselves and did everything they could to make President Obama a do nothing POTUS! Too bad it didn't work out there way - President Obama worked around them and was much, much smarter in countering their bullshit and negativity.

      It's going to occur again and Hillary will come out the winner!

      Trump is a proven liar and fraud - a much worse candidate than Romney was and they expect Trump to win?

      Eat me, Republicans! You will come out the losers once again!

      Delete
    2. Anonymous12:06 AM

      I seem to recall Nate predicting way back that Trump would be the nominee. He also said there was a better than even chance Trump would win.

      So yes, we should all be afraid. He's got a really good track record when it comes to predicting election outcomes.

      Delete
  12. Anonymous11:57 AM

    Hillary Clinton’s ‘Honesty’ Numbers Improve By One-Quarter

    http://www.mediaite.com/online/hillary-clintons-honesty-numbers-improve-by-one-quarter/

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anonymous12:02 PM

    If Hillary has a seizure, goes wonky eyed or bobble headed at the debates, she is toast.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous12:20 PM

      And there us no reason why this would happen. The only wonky eye belongs to your fantasy lovers, the freak show Palin females.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous12:23 PM

      And if Trump has a seisure, goes wonky eyed or bobble headed at the debates, nobody would notice the difference.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous12:53 PM

      Trump has Tourettes and no one cares.

      Delete
    4. Caroll Thompson1:58 PM

      12:02, Hillary debated Bernie without doing any of these things. Quit spreading lies. Come the debate, everyone will see that Clinton is in good health.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous12:08 AM

      I'm surprised at 70, obese and I'm sure he had high blood pressure, Trump hasn't collapsed with a stroke or an aneurism or something. His blood pressure must be sky high during his angry rants.

      Of course, he doesn't campaign like Hillary does.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous3:35 AM

      Anon at 12:02 pm. I don't know where this myth of "seizures" and Hillary Clinton has come from. But it's a MYTH.
      Beaglemom

      Delete
  14. Anonymous12:11 PM

    Michelle Obama Has No Sympathy for the Candidates' Spouses

    https://theobamadiary.com/2016/09/21/first-lady-michelle-obama-on-the-late-show-with-stephen-colbert/

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anonymous12:15 PM

    Don't count on it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous1:10 PM

      Don't count on what?

      Delete
    2. I don't count on it. Or anything else.
      I work for Clinton's election.

      Delete
  16. Anonymous12:20 PM

    There's hope for humanity.

    https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/779019179328278528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiMUoVjQ5uI

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRkoRHiSsTY

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous1:00 PM

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIKWOQjqlok

      Delete
  17. Anonymous1:10 PM

    Hillary Clinton apparently has her policy group as busy as the campaign staff. She will be ready on day one, hour one, and we need to have her there, returning to the White House.

    On the other "tiny hand" Drumpf refused to pay his policy team - decided he did not need "in-depth" plans and information - refused to pay them though they had been on staff, working a lot of overtime since April, and frequently being told the "paychecks were in the mail" then last week he told them there was no pay involved, they were merely volunteers - so they walked out enmasse. Govern with the gut? His is big enough but is totally filled with shite.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Anonymous1:26 PM

    OT FEAR:
    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/tulsa-cop-betty-shelby-charged-with-manslaughter-for-killing-terence-crutcher/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous1:45 PM

      Thank God for videos. She murdered him in cold blood!

      Delete
    2. Anonymous4:31 PM

      1 woman, she will be convicted @ 1:45>
      HUNDREDS of FEARFUL Male PIGS do it, nothing happens to them...

      Delete
    3. Anonymous5:08 PM

      4:31pm Since you point out the fact that she's female perhaps she was PMS'ing and wasn't exercising good judgment that day ;-)

      Delete
    4. Anonymous8:24 PM

      Her husband (2nd), Dave Shelby, was in the helicopter although supposedly is not the one that called Crutcher a "bad dude".

      I don't think she'll be found guilty or do time. She'll probably plead to a lesser charge because she was "scared for her life" so she'll get off. But she won't be working as a police office any more. And that is a good thing.

      Delete
  19. Anonymous1:32 PM

    With the poll average at Clinton +1.1, if you're going to call the Trump +5 an outlier, the Clinton +6 is an outlier too.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Anonymous1:36 PM

    Top Intel Democrats Warn That Russia Is Trying To Influence The Election For Trump

    ...In other words, Comrade Don’s friends at the Kremlin are trying to get him elected president as part of a plan to install a friendly Putin puppet who will neutralize the US opposition to Russia’s aggressive expansion plans.

    It is amazing that the Republican Party has gone from Mitt Romney warning that Russia is our greatest adversary to Donald Trump playing pattycake with Vlad Putin and telling the GOP what wonderful friends the Russians will make.

    The Russians are definitely meddling in the US election. They are terrified of what an experienced Hillary Clinton will bring to the White House. They definitely want a soft minded stooge like Donald Trump who can be easily bought and rolled over leading the world’s only superpower.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09/22/top-intel-democrats-warn-russia-influence-election-trump.html

    ReplyDelete
  21. Anonymous1:36 PM

    OT? Maybe? NO IS>
    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/feds-we-can-read-all-your-email-and-youll-never-know/

    ReplyDelete
  22. Anonymous1:41 PM

    Hillary did a great job on "Between Two Ferns" with Zach Galifinakis.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/23/us/politics/a-deadpan-hillary-clinton-visits-between-two-ferns.html?_r=0

    Obama also had lots of fun on the show. I love it when these folks let their hair down and just get funny, even if his show brings out their dry humor, it's hilarious seeing people in this element.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnW3xkHxIEQ

    ReplyDelete
  23. Caroll Thompson1:56 PM

    The recent polls have given some hope. I am back to watching my beloved news again. Hopefully, Hillary will do well in the first debate and these polls will look even better.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Anonymous2:00 PM

    "I definitely abhor how a past offense no matter what it is continues to haunt people who legitimate change. Sure there are some people who are too far gone to adjust to society in a "moral" way and they must be jailed or executed to spare innocent people's lives. But I firmly believe even a murderer can repent in whatever way they need and go on to be happy and healthy. "

    Best comment and something internet cowards need to read well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous4:02 PM

      Not sure what that has to do with the topic. I suspect Gryphen let random Alicia lunacy slip through.

      Delete
  25. Anonymous2:16 PM

    Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee"

    http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09/22/top-intel-democrats-warn-russia-influence-election-trump.html

    "Donald Trump represents a very real threat to the national security of the United States of America."

    ReplyDelete
  26. Anonymous3:35 PM

    It's so disturbing that no matter how many stories come out--and there have been plenty that should be snowballing and not just disappearing after a day or two, even with such things as the bombings and the shootings of unarmed black men--about Trump's crookedness, it doesn't seem to matter. And only 6% of people in a poll seem to think seeing his tax records is very important (granted, there were other subjects listed that deserved to be higher priority). He could go up to a lemonade stand and steal some six-year-old's sales money and it wouldn't make a difference. When I was a kid and we went on a field trip to the Ohio state capitol, in the souvenir shop the cashier was blind. To a degree, sales were based on trust. Trump could go rip off that blind cashier and no one would care. Romney was condemned for riding his car with his dog's cage on top. Trump could be one of those scumbags who throw little puppies out the window of a moving car and it wouldn't matter. I am at the point of thinking there is nothing that will get enough news coverage so as to drive through the feeble brains of so many people just how horrid he is.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous4:16 PM

      Absolutely. My take through the primaries; I couldn't believe what I was seeing, and I was in junior high during the George Wallace debacle. To think that I thought this country would never let something like that happen again. Silly me.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous4:26 PM

      4:16> George Wallace by Jim Wright, he was there!
      http://www.stonekettle.com/2016/09/greatness-again.html

      Delete
    3. Anonymous4:32 PM

      Except a burnout. The fact that Hillary remains steady, calm, healthy and positive through it all is beginning to make an impact. The bad taste Trump leaves at the end of a day is beginning to pall. Trump Fatigue setting in. Hillary will show her grace and intelligence in the debates, Trump will operate from ego and ignorance. He'll suck and blame it on the system being rigged. Trump folds his tent claiming the system is too rigged against him for a victory in Nov.

      Delete
  27. Anonymous4:24 PM

    https://thinkprogress.org/the-myth-of-gary-johnson-8f39a5688fe6#.273ymwrwo

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/09/clinton-proposes-65-percent-tax-on-billionaire-estates/

    65% ON BIG B$

    ReplyDelete
  28. Anonymous5:16 PM

    The USC/LA Times poll is a huge outlier due to their methodology. USC polls the SAME group of people every time, in an attempt to measure changing of minds. But, even if USC carefully chose a polling group initially that seemed representative of the electorate at large, but any unusual changes of those SAME people's feelings has an outsize effect on the poll. The USC poll has shown Trump consistently in the lead by wide margins relative to a consensus of the rest of the national polls.

    Also, national polls DO count, as states are not really as independent of each other as you might think. (see Nate Silver's analysis of swing states at fivethirtyeight.com)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous8:33 PM

      http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-reports-of-a-clinton-rebound-have-been-greatly-exaggerated/

      "Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the White House are still near an all-time low in the FiveThirtyEight forecasts, although they’re up a smidge from earlier in the week. Our polls-only forecast gives her a 59 percent chance of beating Donald Trump, while our polls-plus model shows her with a 58 percent chance. Some interested parties are pointing to individual polls as evidence of a Clinton rebound, but a closer look at all the data released over the past three days suggests that those people are stretching."

      http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-leading-in-exactly-the-states-she-needs-to-win/

      Clinton's leading in exactly the states she needs to win. Here's why that isn't as good as it sounds.

      "Right now, Clinton is over the line by exactly one state. As of this writing, that state — what we also call the tipping-point state — is New Hampshire. But a group of states are closely lumped together, and Pennsylvania, Colorado and Wisconsin have all taken their turn as the tipping-point state in recent weeks.

      If she wins all those states and everything toward the blue end of the snake, Clinton would finish with 272 electoral votes, even assuming she loses the 2nd Congressional District of Maine. (Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes by congressional district.) That’s two more than she needs to win the election.

      But in different ways, that both understates and overstates how precarious Clinton’s position is. It understates it because Clinton has no margin to spare. Clinton’s polling has been somewhere between middling and awful in most of the other swing states lately, and they all at least lean toward Trump at the moment, narrowly in some cases (such as Florida) and more clearly in others (such as Iowa). If Clinton loses any of the states on the blue side of the snake without picking anything up on the red side, she’ll be stuck on 269 electoral votes or fewer.1
      On the other hand, Clinton’s leads in the states she needs to win appear to be pretty solid. As of late Thursday afternoon, she’s ahead in our forecast by 3.1 percentage points in New Hampshire, and by slightly more than that in Colorado (3.3 points), Pennsylvania (3.4 points) and Michigan (also 3.4 points)."

      Delete
  29. Anita Winecooler6:37 PM

    I can't wait to watch the match. Trump's going to regret the day he threw his hat in. From now to Nov., he's on his own and she's been through this rodeo a few times before, Trumps going to kick and whine and cry foul, it's rigged, the media did it, or blame it on the weather.

    I picture the Obama's inviting the Clintons to watch it with popcorn in the white house, pause and rewind the good parts as they laugh at Trump. Oh, to be a fly on the wall.

    ReplyDelete

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