Courtesy of TPM Livewire:
Not only is Obama ahead on the ballot, but he is noticeably more popular than Romney. A 52% majority of Ohio voters has a favorable opinion of Obama (44% unfavorable), while Romney's image is upsidedown in the state (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable).
Gender plays an important role in the candidates’ image ratings, as well.
Fully 56% of women have a favorable impression of Obama (39% unfavorable), while their impressions of Romney are solidly negative (42% favorable — 53% unfavorable).
I hate to start channeling Sarah Palin here, but I have long wondered if the media is reluctant to honestly report just how well Obama is doing in some of these swing states, either out of fear of getting the numbers wrong, or simply because they like the horse race aspect of politics.
However at the risk of jinxing this (Which of course I don't believe is possible), if Obama wins Ohio that is pretty much the race and his reelection is assured.
Nate Silver is still predicting a 68.1% chance of winning, and his confidence in an Obama victory has rarely wavered. (Update: Just now went to 71% for the President.)