Courtesy of TPM Livewire:
Not only is Obama ahead on the ballot, but he is noticeably more popular than Romney. A 52% majority of Ohio voters has a favorable opinion of Obama (44% unfavorable), while Romney's image is upsidedown in the state (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable).
Gender plays an important role in the candidates’ image ratings, as well.
Fully 56% of women have a favorable impression of Obama (39% unfavorable), while their impressions of Romney are solidly negative (42% favorable — 53% unfavorable).
I hate to start channeling Sarah Palin here, but I have long wondered if the media is reluctant to honestly report just how well Obama is doing in some of these swing states, either out of fear of getting the numbers wrong, or simply because they like the horse race aspect of politics.
However at the risk of jinxing this (Which of course I don't believe is possible), if Obama wins Ohio that is pretty much the race and his reelection is assured.
Nate Silver is still predicting a 68.1% chance of winning, and his confidence in an Obama victory has rarely wavered. (Update: Just now went to 71% for the President.)
Just found out that my husband cast his absentee ballot for Romney. I am livid! Not because he can't have his own opinion, but because I know have to admit that I am married to a low information old white guy. Ugh. And he says"Alaska's vote in the presidential election doesn't matter anyway."
ReplyDeleteI sent my biggest donation yet to the Obama campaign in response.
Hubby thinks a lot of the ladies, eh?
DeleteThat sucks.
Then he had the nerve to suggest to my coworkers that he could buy me off with chocolate. He just came back from spending time with his 80 year old racist dad, so it figures.
DeleteYou could always say you're delaying conjugal actions until Obama is re-elected. That is either a few months or never. Let him weigh the choices.
DeleteA Photo Or Two … Davenport to Denver
ReplyDeletehttp://theobamadiary.com/2012/10/24/a-photo-or-two-davenport-to-denver/
But but but but... Romney saved the auto industry.
ReplyDeleteRetroactively.
DeleteRetroactively.
DeleteLove the link!
DeletePOTUS on the cover of the Rolling Stone! And hugging Big Bird!
Love the sign "100 percent for Obama... Paid For By The 47 percent in Northeast Denver"
The approval rating might include non voters whereas the polls are just counting likely voters.
ReplyDeleteI don't mind the media calling it a horse race. People won't pay attention unless it's close, and the media (newspapers, TV, electronic media, everything) wants viewers.
ReplyDeleteWhen Obama was miles ahead, I think that the Democrats tended to coast a little. If the media says that the race is close, the Dems might work harder to get out the vote. They have their own internal polling (as do the Republicans). They know exactly where things stand. But, if the public thinks that Obama has it in the bag, they will get lazy. If the media says that it's close, voting will matter to more people.
And, you know better than to listen to anything that Sarah Palin says about the media. The person who was most responsible for showing us how ignorant Sarah is-- that was Sarah, herself. Her own unprepared answers, any and all of them, I'll find some and bring um to ya, that's what showed Sarah to be a lightweight and unfit for the office of VP. The media is just the megaphone. Someone had to supply the stupid answers (or lack of them) to start with. (Sarah, a hint, the next time someone asks you what you are reading, say, "The Bible." You can't go wrong with that answer- hitting head-- now they tell me!)
The media loved Sarah. She was a ratings-dream. Then, bit by bit, it became apparent that Sarah had nothing to say. She was (and still is) dumb. We saw her come out of a visit to Paul Revere's house and she started ringing those bells and firing those warning shots. Having outrageous demands and a high speaking fee to deliver a poorly read speech didn't help Sarah, either. She is her own worst enemy.
She knew how to work the media in Alaska, where she wrote her own letters praising herself as governor. No wonder she had such high favorable ratings. But the rest of the country isn't Alaska. She couldn't fool the national and the international media. (Oh, Sarah, the phone call is for you. I think that it's Sarkozy calling from France). All that Sarah has to do to get media attention is to use a racist phrase like "shuck and jive." Sarah knows how to use the media, but sometimes, they don't like to be used.
KC asked her what she read to keep up on "current events".
DeleteThe Bible would have been an equally ridiculous answer to the one SP gave.
I wonder how much Bristol's matured turning 22 since being booted off DWTS.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.eonline.com/news/354907/happy-birthday-bristol-palin-booted-dancing-with-the-stars-diva-turns-22
http://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/bristol-palin-i-would-never-do-the-bachelorette-because-it-would-be-too-boring-20121810
ReplyDeleteSaid the most boring reality star ever. . .
Maybe "WipeOut" will have her?
DeleteMittocracy: Tearing Down The Media’s Mitt Momentum Myth
ReplyDelete...This election will be won by state, not by feigned or propped up momentum. And by state, Romney is in trouble. Obama has the math in his favor at this point. Greg Sargent points out, “Whatever is happening on the national level, the fact remains that Romney faces a more daunting climb in the electoral math than Obama does — meaning the President is currently leading.”
http://www.politicususa.com/takes-prop-mitt-momentum-media-myth.html
GO, my DEAR President, GO!
ReplyDeleteGlad you read Nate, Gryph, he is a favorite!
OBAMA/BIDEN
Call it for President Obama - you are 100% correct - not only is he running against Romney, he is running against the media - Romney is pretending he is in with a chance - hahahahaha
ReplyDeleteI think Obama's camp prefers it to remain a seemingly close race; if his victory seems assured, many of his supporters might feel it wasn't important they go to the trouble to wait in line at the polls, and instead stay home. Enough of those could mean the difference.
ReplyDelete538 now has Obama at 71% to 29%. 14 days left.
ReplyDeleteI've been watching the "tour", and he's got amazing energy and stamina! That other fella and eddy munster, not so much!
ReplyDeleteNate is my go to guy, The media's hyping it as a horse race, but the crowd turnout at early voting places is phenomenal.
I think there are multiple reasons for the media reporting this is a horse race (all those started above) -- makes a better nail biting news story, they don't want to get it wrong, and for Romney's side (Faux News) they would claim they are winning or tied just to create the illusion anyway no matter what the polls said.
ReplyDeletefor some though reporting a tight race means it keeps dems motivated and fired up and hopefully that translates to getting out and actually voting because it matters - if they kept saying President Obama is most likely going to win - a lot of folks if they got busy or distracted on election day may not take the time and extra effort to go vote (in some cases hours in long lines!)
sure wish we could vote early here in NJ - can't wait to cast my vote for Obama/Biden!
I hope Nate Silver is more then just correct. The media has been freaking me out with their worst case scenarios that would give us an electoral college mandated President Romney or Presiden Boehner.
ReplyDeleteM from MD
Really, Nate has become a "comfort" and daily dose of sanity ... It's become painful to watch John King, David Gregory, King, and Chuck Todd scramble over and over, trying to come up with SOME credible possibility for Romney to be ahead, and win... gb from La
ReplyDelete