We can put aside all of the reasons that have been given for not nominating Obama because of his inexperience or for not nominating Hillary because of her early Iraq war stance, because there is one fact that eclipses any of those.Hillary cannot beat John McCain!
It is clear that McCain is now the Republican candidate, and it was a smart choice for the Republicans to make. John McCain is a maverick that will appeal to the independents, a hawk that will appeal to the pro-war voters, a fiscal conservative that will satisfy the true conservatives, and a man of leadership who will appeal to those who are just looking for somebody to fix the country.
But John McCain’s fatal flaw is that he is for a war that the majority of the country is against. The way to beat him is to focus on the fact that he wants to continue this war, and even possibly expand the war into Iran.
Almost any Democrat could have challenged him, and probably beaten him, on this one overriding issue. Everybody that is except Hillary Clinton.
Hillary has two very weak points in her political armor. One is Bill (I will get to him later) and the other is her vote in support for the war, her continued support for the war after it became unpopular, and her inability to admit that she made a mistake in voting for it in the first place.
Hillary is essentially the last of the Democrats who campaigned for President to start talking about bringing the troops home, and also the last to start calling it a mistake. This demonstrates a lack of credibility as an “anti-war” candidate and is more of an indication that Hillary was only positioning herself politically to get support from Democrats for the primary.
Voters who have not been following this closely will find themselves second guessing their views about the war when they see the certainty of John McCain up on the debate stage (Where he will appear fatherly and comforting next to the shrillness of Hillary), against the political opportunist that defines Hillary Clinton.
Now let’s mention Bill. Everybody (including the Hillary campaign) thought that Bill would be her biggest asset, but he may indeed turn out to be her biggest deficit.
The only thing that will awaken the beaten down Republican voters right now is a return of the Clintons. They know this is not their year. With an unpopular war, a broken economy, and a slew of scandals on the back burners, they are just keeping their heads down right now.
But if they can get another shot at Bill and Hill, then they will rise like Lazarus sharpening their weapons for the battle to come. They know about the Clintons and they know they can beat them. As a matter of fact they have been preparing for this battle ever since Hillary was first elected to the Senate. Everybody in Washington knew that Hillary would run for President and the Republicans have been gathering dirt on Bill just for this eventuality. I have no idea if they have been successful, but given Bill’s reputation there is definitely the possibility. (Actually I have heard there is much more then just the possibility).
So the chances that Hillary can defeat the squeaky clean John McCain are virtually zero.
Now just for a moment imagine John “Bomb, bomb, Iran” McCain standing on that debate stage with Barack Obama. Just think of that image for a minute. Picture the youthful smiling face of Obama standing next to the grimacing John McCain.
Obama will bring in those anti-war votes by the millions with his early anti-war speech and his continued opposition. Obama will inspire those independents who are looking for a REAL change. And Obama will bring in the youth vote by the millions.
John McCain and the Republicans know that they have no hope against that image. Why do you think they have been talking about Hillary’s inevitability for over a year now? (Remember it was Karl Rove who first mentioned it.)
So if you are still on the fence about whether to support Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, remember who can win, and who cannot win.
Do you really want four more years of Republicans being in power?
I did not think so.
Gryphen,
ReplyDeleteThank you for posting this.
I have been saying this for months now -- in a matchup with McCain, Hillary will get her ass handed to her.
Her negatives are above 50%. Rightly or not, she's one of the most reviled politicians in America and her name alone, brings wingers to their feet in a unified charge mode.
The Democrat who can beat McCain is Barack Obama. Even if the lunatic right tries to label him a liberal to the left of a Sandinista, he still doesn't have the negative baggage Hillary brings to the race.
I think this electability thing is a wash. The reason Hillary's numbers are low is because the Right has spent the past 16 years inventing one lie after another about her. I mean, crap, they've even called her a murderer. You can hear them warming up to slaughter Obama as we speak... they'll have half the American public convinced that he is a stealth Islamic terrorist out to destroy America before they're through. Whoever the Democratic candidate is, the mud and slime machine is going to be out in force. The only difference is that we know what lies they'll use against Hillary -- the same ones they've been using for the past 16 years -- and we don't know which ones they'll use on Obama. I predict a 49%-51% vote -- and I can't guarantee that the Democrat is going to be the one with the 51%.
ReplyDeletewell you know I agree with you, Gryphen & Christopher. It doesn't matter whether you like her or loathe her, she galvanizes the repubs like no one else. It's like waving bill's blue dress spot in front of a rabid bull. They are not apathetic about her, they KNOW all they need to know & no amount of reasonable logic will sway them. Rightly or wrongly, she is the most divisive pol around (proof of that is the way her own party is dividing over her right now). I know I sound like a broken record on this, but because she garners no cross-overs & few indies, she guarantees another close election which is as good as a loss for dems.
ReplyDeleteEven Frank Luntz agreed on Bill Maher last week that repubs don't really know how to run against Obama. Of course they will quickly think of something, absolutely, but watching how Obama handles himself in the primaries gives me extreme confidence in his ability to handle the slings & arrows. That's my 2-cents.
Christopher thanks I appreciate the kind words. I think that this is he issue hat the voters need to be focused on from hereon out.
ReplyDeleteBadtux, I agree that the Republicans will start telling lies about Obama if he is the candidate, but don't forget that lies only stick if there is some small truth for them to cling to. The Republicans can convince themselves that Obama is a terrorist in waiting, but not the population at large. However they can destroy Hillary using Bill, her healthcare plan, and her previous war stance.
d.k., it is always nice to get a visit from you and I knew you would understand my point. Thanks for the support.
Republican lies don't need any truth to stick if they're done at the last minute after the candidate has no time to respond to them. Just ask John McCain. He knows. Two days before the Republican primary in South Carolina in 2000, a "push poll" went out implying that John had an out-of-wedlock child with a black woman. The only "grain of truth" needed here was that John *does* have a dark-skinned child -- adopted from Bangladesh as an infant.
ReplyDeleteJust watch. As Obama gets closer to the nomination, you're going to hear Republican chainsaws coming out to chop him down. They'll say he represented Communists in Chicago. They'll say he's a radical who hates the free enterprise system and point to some of the people he worked with back in his community activist days. They'll take every little thing they're digging up on Obama right now -- and you better bet there's *teams* of private detectives digging shit up on Obama right now -- and come up with plausible lies that stretch the tiniest little coincindence to seem like Obama is the next coming of Osama bin Laden and Josef Stalin combined. I've seen the Republican slime machine in operation far too long to have any doubt about it. I mean, c'mon. We're talking about people who made a GENUINE WAR HERO with multiple medals for bravery look less heroic than a draft-dodging coward in 2004... do you *really* think they're going to be any less creative just because Obama is black and slick while Kerry was white and duller than a wooden shovel?
I repeat: I truly believe this electability thing is a wash. 49%/51% in November. You read it here first.
- Badtux the Preparin'-for-the-slime Penguin
Well Badtux , I guess our only choices are to just give up because the Republicans "play dirty", encourage the Democrats to also "play dirty", or hope that the American public has become somewhat enlightened as to what kind of crap they can expect from the Republicans.
ReplyDeleteMy choice is to choose the RIGHT candidate, for the right reasons, and to continue to show integrity and hope in the face of lies and deception.
But that is just me.
If we choose Hillary she will go tit for tat with the Republicans until the average voter cannot even tell them apart anymore. I am tired of allowing the Republicans to determine the battleground. If Obama stays on the high ground they will eventually have to try and battle him there. Which by the way I really believe McCain, for all of his faults, would rather do.
Remember McCain is not Bush. If Obama fights fair I think that McCain may have a difficult time going dirty.
I am sorry if this seems naive to you Badtux, but it is a probable flaw in my personality to always look for the good in people.
No, I'm not saying give up. I'm saying support a candidate based on their intelligence, skills, experience, and policies, not upon vague things like "electability" that end up as a wash in the end. You and I may come to different conclusions of which candidate to support based upon this criteria, but letting the other party determine who you are going to nominate as your candidate appears to me to be rather... defeatist.
ReplyDeleteI mean, seriously. You're suggesting that we let the REPUBLICANS choose our candidate for us? I want the best person for the job, and don't give a flyin' flip what the Republicans think yea or nay. Either Democratic ideals are supported by the majority of Americans, or they're not. That is what we need to be concerned about -- not about what REPUBLICANS think. The Democrats lost the 2004 election by voting for the most "electable" candidate -- John Kerry -- rather than the best candidate -- Howard Dean. "Electability", on the other hand, is a double-ended sword that kills your side just as easily as it kills the other.
In short -- I'm saying that "electability" is not a valid reason for supporting one candidate over the other here. It's not going to be an advantage for either candidate by the time the elections come around. I'm saying choose the best candidate to push Democratic ideals further, regardless of which one you choose -- not the one that seems most "electable" now. Because we all saw what a sick joke that turned into in 2004...
I see I am late to the discussion...Hey there all..
ReplyDeleteI think you did an excellent job presenting all the points..and even Pat Bucahnon today said this IS NOT her year...or time...( I know I was in shock he was on Shuster- Tucker was not there) and he pointed out that now it is McCain....this is a problem...Obama has scored on many polls as MORE electable...and more appropriate against Mc....
anyways I don't feel like beating a dead horse...I have been doing that over at WS all night....
thank you for pointing out the Truth...
I totally agree. If Hillary wins the nomination the Democrats can kiss good bye their chance of having a Democratic president. There is no way that she can beat McCain. I know a lot of Democrats here in California who cannot stand her and who say more favorable things about McCain than her.
ReplyDelete