Friday, August 13, 2010

How serious IS Sarah Palin about running for President in 2012? Very serious...well up to a point.

The amazing number crunchers over at FiveThirtyEight have been postulating on the logic behind Palin's, all over the map, endorsement strategy.

And then there is the related matter of Palin's own ambitions, whatever they may be. Now, perhaps I seriously misunderstand the method behind Palin's meddling madness, but her behavior looks to me like that of a politician liberated from seeking the Republican presidential nomination, rather than one with her eyes on that prize. Most smart pols avoid making primary endorsements unless the intra-party primary fight is:

(a) uncontested;
(b) features an obvious and safe favorite the whole state and/or county party leadership is backing over a bunch of wannabee cranks and yahoos;
(c) the endorser has some personal connection to a particular candidate; or
(d) the endorsee can do something unique for the endorser [e.g., the endorsee happens to be, say, the governor or state party chair of Iowa].

You know I have a good friend who sometimes gets all wrapped up in trying to figure out how Sarah made the decisions we believe she made in the past couple of years.

"It just does not make any sense!" is an often repeated phrase during our conversations.

At moments like that I always have to remind them, that they are thinking like a rational human being. "Do you REALLY believe that Sarah Palin is a rational human being?"  For most of us the answer is pretty obvious.

So despite Tom Schaller's reasoned, logical attempt to make sense of Palin's political participation thus far, and what it says about her future decisions, she is ABSOLUTELY taking a run at the office in 2012! 

However before you sit back in your chair with a stunned look on your face, and try to absorb how anybody could be is arrogant and divorced from reality, read what Markos Moulitsas has to say about that eventuality.

Palin had announced on Twitter that she would be running the 5k race organized by the Benton-Franklin Chapter of the Red Cross.

She didn't finish the race, opting to leave the course early to avoid more crowds at the end. About 40 minutes into the run, word started trickling out to people gathered at the finish line that she was gone.

But here's why I love this --

Palin is an attention monger, selling herself as a big runner with a splashy magazine layout in a premier running magazine. Yet given the chance to actually, you know, run, she couldn't even finish a measly 5K run.

Is there a better anecdote to illustrate the essence of Sarah?

So watch, she'll make noise about running for president in 2012, but when push comes to shove, she doesn't have the work ethic to actually campaign. She'll bask in the attention, sell lots of books, and get $100K per speech.

But the second it becomes hard work, she'll call it quits.

EXACTLY!  Kos gets Sarah completely.  THAT is what I have been saying for the last six months or so.

In many ways this is exactly like Levi Johnston's reality show inspired run for mayor of Wasilla.  He has no interest in the job, but his manager Tank Jones has learned by watching Sarah Palin that THIS is a way of getting attention that can then be used to make money.  It is all one great big scam.

Sadly what it does in the long run is to make people become increasing discouraged about the motivations of those running for public office, and to have even less trust for the government.  Both of which help Palin's precious Teabagger's make their point that the government is essentially self serving and corrupt.

In other words by being so transparently manipulative and egotistic Sarah Palin manages to use her own image to cast a shadow of doubt on the motivations for ALL politicians seeking office. It is the ultimate mean girl slam at her fellow contestants. "Sure I am a devious self serving bitch, but so is EVERYBODY who wants to wear the tiara!"

So in the end Palin walks away without a sash across her chest saying "Miss President of the United States", but she also gets plenty of consolation prizes like tons of media attention, more money for her PAC/slush fund, and the chance to act like the victim again.  THAT is so much better than that time she had to settle for winning "Miss Congeniality" now isn't it?

Boy wasn't THAT a lifetime ago?

54 comments:

  1. angela7:01 AM

    Or . . . . . maybe not. Tick, tock.

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  2. Anonymous7:08 AM

    ...and just think of all the people she can blame for not running!

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  3. Re: the 5k. 40 minutes in she quits. 40 minutes. A serious runner, 5k, 40 min? Every runner who read that fell off their chair laughing.

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  4. Anonymous7:17 AM

    I've been saying for months that Sarah only cares about $arah, it's all about the cash.

    Sarah has another year to keep grifting and when they find out she's not running in 2012, the turd will be fully polished.

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  5. Anonymous7:19 AM

    Palin is way too lazy to even prepare for interviews or debates, let alone endure the long campaign slog. The "Mama bear" cartoon will be very convenient when it's time to renounce the Republican primaries in order to protect "the cubs" from the relentless prying of the MSM (People and Us magazines).

    Victimhood- that's Palin's pay dirt. Obviously, she'll leave the door open for running in four years time, lest the speaking engagements and the guest appearances on Fox dry up.

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  6. Anonymous7:32 AM

    Gryphen I think the Palin engine is losing steam. The Kathy G. video has been making the rounds and views were near the 1 mil mark. More people see it and forward the link to friends, the better.

    I think her handlers are planning a preemptive strike of some sort to try and counter this fiasco.

    IMO, it won't work. $P's future is in the rubber chicken dinner circuit letting old men leer at her. That will surely make her happy.

    Jaye

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  7. Anonymous7:36 AM

    The only way that Sarah actually made it through two months of campaigning with McCain is that she was selected without a primary battle and she was propped up by a professional staff. Even then, she went rogue, unable to prepare for easy interviews or taking a telephone call from the President of France.

    I will make a prediction about what we can expect from Sarah in the next few months. (The reason that I am doing it is because last summer when Gryphen reported some splitville rumors, Todd and Sarah are going to stick it out just to prove him wrong. Maybe Sarah will be offended by my prediction and do something stupid to prove me wrong, too, also).

    This November is the month for Sarah's new reality show to air along with her new ghost written book about America's folks, flag and I forgot the last "f," fill in your own blank space. There will be another book tour with a big painted bus promoting SarahPAC. Sarah will have plants in the crowds that greet her, chanting, "Run Sarah Run!" Announcing a candidacy will depend on how much money she raises, the reaction of the crowds and the media, and which way the political winds are blowing.

    That means if the economy is getting stronger, jobs increase and the people are less unhappy with their government, she doesn't have a platform. She has at least three serious rivals, all of whom seem to be doing better that she is right now.

    Sarah cannot run without serious money and backing behind her. She lacks the intelligence to organize a campaign. She lacks the concentration to stick to a program. Unlike other candidates, she is too cheap to spend some of her own millions. Her followers validate just how crazy she really is with their out of bounds threats. Most of all, Sarah cannot handle criticism, not even three words painted on a blue banner. A presidential candidate faces much more scrutiny. She may pose as a candidate to attract donations and attention. As illustrated in Gryphen's story about the 5K race, Sarah has no staying power.

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  8. Anonymous7:53 AM

    Come on Alaskans, spill the beans on Ruffles, Willow's break in, etc....etc......put that wench in her place!

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  9. Anonymous7:57 AM

    As the rock group Queen once said, “another one bites the dust”. As of yesterday, another one of the Sarah Palin endorsed “Mama Grizzlies” was shot dead by the voting public. Former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel conceded the Republican gubernatorial primary runoff Wednesday to the Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich endorsed Nathan Dean. Prior thereto, both CeCe Heil (House, Tennessee) and Cecile Bledsoe (House, Arkansas) were each defeated in their elections despite the Sarah Palin mark of approval. And as of today, the following Palin endorsed conservative female candidates are trailing in the polls: Star Parker (House, California) and Ann Marie Buerkle (House, New York). Sarah Palin’s star making power is now officially on life support.

    Palin seems to believe that the majority of the American public agrees with her uber-conservative ideology. For instance, just last week during her cojones speech, she misinterpreted the results of the Missouri “Proposition C” referendum vote. In that vote, Missouri Republican Party primary voters passed a purely symbolic referendum allowing state residents to opt out of mandatory health insurance as imposed by the recently enacted Health Care Reform Law. Palin said, “The Show Me State showed Obamacare the door yesterday”, but she failed to mention that virtually only Republicans voted that day or that the Missouri vote was meaningless because federal law trumps state measures on issues of commerce. She fails to understand that it is only the fringe group Tea-Baggers and far far right of the Republican Party that endorse her views. Moreover, those two groups together only constitute a minority of the voting population.

    As her hand chosen candidates continue to lose elections, Sarah Palin might finally get the clue that mainstream American voters do not agree with her on the issues. Let’s hope that this reality eludes her however. After all, we do not want Sarah Palin to realize that she is unelectable and therefore choose not to seek the Presidency in 2012. If that were to happen, who would we laugh at during debates?

    http://lynnrockets.wordpress.com/2010/08/12/palins-mama-grizzlies-on-endangered-species-list/

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  10. Anonymous8:01 AM

    Still working her way forward on the list of the Top 10 Stupidest People on the PLANET..

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  11. Anonymous8:09 AM

    Sometimes I try to imagine a scenario where I might actually feel sorry for Palin, and believe me...I have a VERY vivid imagination. All it takes to stir me back to reality is to remember the hate she inspires in this country, the bigotry she has willingly helped to spread, when she might have helped to curb it, and the con game she has perpetrated on millions of ignorant people. So, I awake each day hoping for her immediate irrelevance. That day will come, but until then, I refuse to go soft on her. She's a barracuda, and remember:" the barracuda has a bird's eye view of its surroundings. As soon as it spies its prey, this fish waits until the animal has its guard down. With a burst of speed, it chases after it. Tearing its prey into large pieces, the great barracuda swims away then circles back to chow down on the pieces."
    http://sea.sheddaquarium.org/sea/fact_sheets.asp?id=104

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  12. Anonymous8:25 AM

    Remember all the Sunday morning talk shows that Sarah appeared on, running for VP in 2008?

    Yeah, me neither!

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  13. Anonymous8:44 AM

    She is actually making her cultists think she is running in order to garner more of their money. Why else would a SarahPac be legal? Can anyone without political aspirations have one? She is fooling a bunch of fools. She won't run. There are too many secrets to be revealed and she won't allow that. She will never admit the truth about Trigg and Ruffles.

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  14. Enjay in E MT8:46 AM

    Just "think" about what could have been happened had SP played her cards differently .....

    SP (Gov) fully supported Ted Stevens in re-election bid. Ted wins election. SP didn't resign for power & money. Ted dies in tragic plane crash. Gov. able to select a new senator and Tawd moves to DC.

    I still have my doubts about her running, especially in 2012. SP is playing politics like a HS Teen - (boys had a word for those that "played the game" but never closed the deal) As we can see by the polls, she's "been out there" too long and everyone is suffering from Palin-fatigue. She is no longer the bright newbie on stage.

    By 2016 there will be some "Obama fatigue" and if SP has kept her name off the blunder headlines - actually studied (not just listen to what ppl tell her) maybe she can run. Some of the best things she could be doing, is taking some on-line classes in American History, Economics, World History, Geography and of course - ENGLISH and Critical Thinking

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  15. Anonymous8:46 AM

    Joe McGinnis' book also, too.

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  16. Anonymous8:51 AM

    "Miss Congeniality," that's REALLY funny!

    I don't think we have anything to fear from Mama Grizzly in 2012. If she runs at all, it will be
    strictly entertainment for everyone who is not in the cult. I, personally will look forward to the "debates."

    Also, too, I have a feeling that Jeb Bush will try to come in at the 11th hour to "save" the GOP. I wonder if Karl Rove has a crush on Jeb, the way he did on "W."

    Remember, Cheney is out of the picture, he's really sick. That's why Liz has become his mouthpiece.

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  17. Like all the rest, I sure could be wrong.... I think that, in her mind, Sarah is running and believes she will win. All those petty details y'all are chattin about aren't even on the radar screen.

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  18. Anonymous9:01 AM

    Exactly, palinoscopy.

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  19. Anonymous9:03 AM

    She picks the candidates to endorse by their Christian, pro-life cred only. No secret there. Sarah was originally in this for the 7 mountains theory. Still is, but she gets the cash and attention that her narcissim craves on top of the adulation that comes from the Dominionists.

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  20. Anonymous9:11 AM

    I think her ego will force her to at least make an announcement of her intention to run. The speaking gigs are starting to dry up and she needs to add a new line to her resume.

    However, when she has to face the first real press conference or interview with someone other than Fox, she'll cave and quit like she always does because 'the media is out to get her' or her family needs her. Her quitting will be blamed on someone or something else because she can't take responsibility for anything.

    She doesn't really want to be President because it's too much work and you can't make the kind of money she's become accustomed to until you're out of office. However, as much as she denies needing a title, she would love to have everyone call refer to her as a Presidential Candidate.

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  21. FEDUP!!!9:11 AM

    A bit O/T, but maybe not: She seems to have stood up ANOTHER GOPer:

    http://tinyurl.com/2d9j2mn

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  22. Anonymous9:27 AM

    I hear she decided not to run when she learned the winner doesn't get a sash, roses and a big fat shiny crown.

    If she can't get all that, then what the hell would be the point?

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  23. Jennifer9:32 AM

    She'll run for sure. But once it becomes work, she'll quit. Sarah Palin doesn't do work.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Anonymous9:35 AM

    She will not win Miss Congeniality this time!!

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  25. Anonymous9:48 AM

    Remembering, according to Willow, Sarah is now "representing the United States." As in , representing the United States in the ultimate beauty/talent contest. That's how the simple-minded Palin women think. It's all about entering the next pageant. Which fortunately, she will yet again lose.

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  26. Anonymous10:12 AM

    It's true that Sarah Palin does not chair any boards, doesn't represent in any official capacity any organizations. Nor have we heard of her being on any committees, working alongside other State reps for pushing specific legislation.

    She just works independently, like as on a contract basis. Because she doesn't want any responsibilities that the "official" title would require. This is why she speaks through Facebook. She has all the control. No boring meetings to attend, no one to be subserviant to, no deadlines, no elbow greasing. The independent Sarah dances to her own tune, and hers only.

    She exerts the freedom to do whatever she wants, cancel speaking engagements, and blame others, for example, and live a life unfettered. I wish her cultists would see this for what it really is.

    Sarah doesn't have a working standard based on team work, like as in a military unit. She loves to shout out to the military, but yet, she is so absolutely opposite to what the young soldiers are all about it's laughable. They learn total discipline and don't go "rogue". They learn to obey their commanding officers. They learn to do it, no matter what.

    Sarah Palin is the antithesis of a battalian soldier. She is laughable. She's a quitter.

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  27. Buffalo,NY10:16 AM

    Palinoscopy -good one! I did some quick calculations and if she finished 2/3 of the race, that's 2 miles; or a pace of 3 MPH. That's barely a brisk walking pace on a treadmill - some athlete! !!

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  28. Anonymous10:42 AM

    Remember those pictures of her coming out of a hair salon with all the body guards? Remember the flabby, jiggly ass? Not a runner.

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  29. Anonymous10:47 AM

    @palinoscopy 7:08, maybe Sarah actually finished in like 15 mins., but she was all incognito - you know, in her sharpied McCain visor. She's like a ninja in that thing!

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  30. Forever Anonymous11:05 AM

    I believe that would be the case, she'll run for president just for the kickbacks of being a 'candidate'...what's not been considered is the amount of hate and turmoil generated in her way to notoriety......it not f*ng funny....if people don't decisively oppose her, she might win...and opposing her will unleash the hounds from hell, the smear and harassment to countless people is truly frightening and infuriating...... I guess that's the way it is and will have to get use to it.

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  31. SME13111:10 AM

    I just don’t understand why anyone really thinks she will run in 2012 or any year for that matter. First of all she loves the money and attention she is getting now and will continue to get as long as her puppets don’t learn she has no qualifications. Chance are those who cling to her every word aren’t smart enough to investigate any of her claims and they don’t care she has offered ZERO solutions to the issues the US faces today.

    She sure as hell doesn’t want her complete medical records exposed for the world to see.

    And she has ZERO staying power for any role she has ever had. People focus on the fact she quit as Governor but in truth she has quit everything she ever started.

    She quit the city counsel to run for mayor.

    She quit in her second term as mayor to run for lt governor (and lost),

    She quit the oil and gas commission

    She quit as Governor

    Not to mention all the times she quit school and the jobs she had after school.

    Dropping out of a 5k run is nothing in comparison to quitting 5 schools while trying to get a 4 yr degree or quitting ever job she has ever had.

    She lives for the admiration she gets from her puppets and loves the money even more. She will never give that up.

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  32. Anonymous11:15 AM

    On whose ticket would she run? GOP or Tea Party? One has the cash, the other is brash. Who would have her?

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  33. Anonymous11:36 AM

    Palin will "run" for president for the same reason she keeps sending out "tweets". The activities that feed her huge ego are an addiction. Until her drug use disables her or she is incarcerated, she'll just keep on feeding her ego.

    Palin's impact on the political process in the USA is weakening as her deficiencies are exposed. But this country needs her completely out of politics.

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  34. Anon 11:15. Why I think Sarah will run. All of your points are valid to a reasonable person. Sarah is not living in the same reality. She has indicated that God has laid His hand on her and she will be President. She apparently believes that. Her adoring crowds help her believe that. Look at her over-reaction to the "sign" which didn't have her name on it. She has to discount/dismiss any threat to her reality. Yes, I believe that she will quit when the going gets hard and will have some external excuse. Right now, I believe she is running and thinks she will win. God wants it that way.

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  35. Anonymous11:56 AM

    We Republicans do not like Sarah, 11:15. It will not be the GOP. When she criticizes the McCain campaign, a lot of us who worked hard for her take it personally. We know she is lying. I live in a Republican stronghold in the South. Southerners are polite. Ask one what they think of Sarah, and they´ll say, ¨She´s okay.¨ Nothing negative. But everyone of them, men and women, believe every dirty truth about Sarah when told. They are not blind. All of it fits her profile.

    This past Sunday, after church, a twenty something young lady I hardly know cornered me. ¨Is Trig Sarah´s baby?¨ she asked. This college student, hard-core pro-lifer, couldn´t wait to hear the slime!

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  36. Anonymous12:09 PM

    Oh crap, I think you may be right. I so do NOT look forward to her thinly disguised hate rallies.

    I do have a bit of hope that Anon 7:36 am analysis may be a factor. Quitty will not be willing to part with more than five dollars of her own money to run.

    She is fishing for big money to prop up SarahPAC, and sugar daddies (Rupert Murdock, Fred Malek, James Dobson) to smooth her way past those nasty reporters and the political minefield.

    If her show and book provoke yawns, and lose money, her prospects may not be so bright.

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  37. Anonymous12:25 PM

    The twit hasn't tweeted in days. She must be getting her much needed shock therapy.

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  38. Anonymous12:31 PM

    Gryphen, I've been reading your blog for almost 2 years, with some breaks. I don't always agree with you, & get frustrated at times.

    Please consider what I suggested the other day, some type of interactive dialogue. It would really help to drive interest & communication.

    Also, people like their comments to appear right away now days. Why the need for censorship on your blog? It is not like you don't use profanity at times yourself. You can always delete any that are vulgar or insulting.

    Sending this comment, because I care about you & your blog. Ask your daughter's opinion if she has arrived.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Anonymous12:45 PM

    I agree that Sarah is only interested to a point. However, if she can attain the post of president, by doing things her way, then I think she will go with the flow.

    Just as she became governor of Alaska, she would not spit on the chance to become president. Would she be a lazy & incompetent president? Of course!!! That is my motivation to bring her down.

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  40. Anonymous1:11 PM

    Palinoscopy - I did ROFLMAO at the 40 min comment!! I'm faster than mid-pack, but I don't consider myself a fast runner. My 5k PR is 25:14. SP talks a good talk in her Runner's World article about how fast she is, but 40 min?? Srsly that is a joke!

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  41. I maintain that Sarah can run without working hard. She thrives on campaign appearances; and, at the top of the ticket, she can refuse interviews and debates.

    I'm surprised at the moment that her latest wikileaks tweets aren't receiving the usual attention, especially considering they seem to show her ignorance more than any utterance to date. Is the media afraid that covering this might mean saying 'Buh bye, Sarah'?

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  42. Anonymous1:44 PM

    Interesting Photo. Sarah was quite flat chested in her prime.

    Just saying.

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  43. LisanTX1:53 PM

    Imagine what your life would be like if guilt, empathy, and compassion did not enter into your decision making processes. Imagine that your decisions were based solely on your judgments regarding what could benefit you. This is the mental picture of a sociopath.

    Ignore any of the sociopath's actual appearance or behavior. Stop expecting that the sociopath will behave like anyone other than who he/she is. A sociopath is someone driven to do evil and who lacks guilt, empathy and compassion.

    (I forgot where I got this, but it is excellent advice if you have to interact with a sociopath. Also, it describes Sarah Palin.)

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  44. Anonymous2:02 PM

    This won't help her in her quest for power...sanity is rearing it's head even among religious groups:

    http://www.politicususa.com/en/palin-hate-speech

    ReplyDelete
  45. If she won Miss Congeniality, what kind of nasty pieces of work were in that competition with her?! I shudder to think of it...

    She'll make whatever choice garners the most attention and money. Whichever way she goes, it is bad for the country. She stirs up bigotry and hatred everywhere she goes. Don't discount her though, I know some people, who I previously thought of as intelligent, who are big fans of hers. And I live in a very liberal area. She will do much more damage if she is not taken seriously.

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  46. Anonymous2:13 PM

    Every time I read a comment that says that she'll avoid running because she's afraid of debates, I think of the VP debate that she already twisted the way she wanted it to go. She has learned that she does NOT have to fear a debate because she can cheat, double-talk, wink and flirt, and avoid answering hard questions. She has experienced the fact that the moderator of a debate does not hold her accountable. Why would she be afraid?

    Besides that, why would she be afraid of scrutiny? She has already learned that the media does NOT want to touch her background. She gets lots of negative press every day. What difference would a campaign make? If an official run brought out a few more questions, she could attack them for being mean to her. Why would she be afraid?

    Personally, I think that her current lifestyle is perfect for her. Just stay home, come out when she wants to, make a big splash, then take the millions and go back home to relax. No need to study, think, or in any way prepare her mind for exercise. The ONLY reason I see that she would run for president is pure ego: to beat Obama. Is that a big enough reason? I don't know.

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  47. Anonymous2:17 PM

    @anon 12:31 - I agree. It is nice to be able to respond directly to someone.

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  48. Anonymous3:14 PM

    Gryphen, Sarah ran a marathon in Anchorage in 05 in under 4 hours.

    What's your best time?

    ReplyDelete
  49. On the topic of commenting systems: the one that litbrit uses (also used by Bree Palin) is great and I hope you'll consider it.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Anonymous4:53 PM

    3:14, let's not pretend it was much under 4 hours. her time was 3:59:36.

    I guess that's 37 seconds from being over 4 hours.

    Oh, and by the way, that was FIVE years ago.

    Bet she can't do that now.

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  51. Anonymous6:23 PM

    I can see Scarah putting forth some kind of effort to beat her nemesis Obama. That is the only way I can see her getting off her backside for longer than it takes to eat a crunchwrap supreme.

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  52. Anonymous6:28 AM

    It would seem Sharon Angle is a better runner than Palin ever was, if you consider running from the press.

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  53. Randall7:01 AM

    OK - I keep hearing over and over that Sarah is a runner. Besides the glamor shots in the running magazine, does anyone have any photos of Sarah actually running?

    I mean - there are runners in the neighborhood where I live and they RUN. Every day. Rain or shine, they're out there running.

    IF Sarah is really a runner, why are there no pix?

    ...just curious.

    OH, also, too - as far as running for prez - oh, please: that lil ol' schoolteacher made Sarah look like a bitch and a fool - how could she stand up to a real debate?

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  54. Anonymous9:08 AM

    Anon at &;%& am. Your comment is absolutely ridiculous. Handel was behind and she came in at .4% behind and decided to concede.

    In any case, it does cast her on a positive light that she does NOT endorse a candidate by the normal ways other politicians do. She endorses them on principle not on popularity or by some Machivellian plan to see what she can gain in the end.

    I know that principles are foreign to liberal left progressives so it does bother you that there are still people that have them.

    ReplyDelete

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