Tuesday, August 31, 2010

If Joe Miller wins the Republican nomination it will have little to do with Sarah Palin's endorsement. So there!

According to Public Policy Polling:

Contrary to the media spin on the surprise results of last Tuesday’s GOP Senate primary in Alaska, former Governor Sarah Palin did not seem to have a decisive influence on Joe Miller’s apparent victory over incumbent Lisa Murkowski (barring absentee ballot counts). If anything, her impact was minimal, with 65% of those who reported voting in the primary saying Palin’s endorsement had no bearing whatsoever on their vote. Only 15% said it was very important, and 20% somewhat important. In fact, a 39% plurality said that Palin’s endorsement in general makes no difference on who they support, with 35% saying it actually makes them less likely to support her endorsee and only 26% saying it makes them more likely.

Feelings on Miller and Palin do, however, seem to correlate, with both getting 51-40 personal favorability marks. Murkowski, meanwhile, has only a tepid 48-46.

As well as voters liking Miller more than Murkowski, the main thrust of his narrow win seems to have come from the ideology of the voters and the perceived ideologies of the candidates. 59% are conservatives, to only 37% moderates—actually less conservative than the GOP primary electorates in some other states. But 53% support the goals of the Tea Party movement, and Miller hitched every limb of his body to that Express. Indeed, a 47% plurality view Murkowski as too liberal, something only 7% say of Miller, whose views are seen as “about right” by a 51% majority, with only 33% saying he is too conservative. 38% think Murkowski’s ideology “about right.” Only slightly fewer, 34%, see the Republican Party itself as too liberal, than the 35% who see it is “about right.”

“Sarah Palin can claim credit for putting Joe Miller on the map, but not for carrying him to victory, should he end up prevailing,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Instead, the story in Alaska is the same as most other places: the winner was better liked than the loser, and his views were seen as more in line with the electorate. Miller is yet another insurgent candidate who proudly claimed the Tea Party mantle.”

The simple truth is that the people who actually motivated to vote were either Joe Miller fans, or Independents who wanted to get Murkowski out of of the way so that Scott McAdams would have at least a shot at winning the Senate seat. It had, as proven by this poll, virtually NOTHING to do with Sarah Palin's endorsement.

Of course those are little things we call "facts" and facts will never convince teabaggers and Palin-bots of ANYTHING.

10 comments:

  1. Anonymous3:09 PM

    Sorry, Gryph, but I am going to hit one for the other side on this one.

    PPP is a heavily Democratic/Liberal leaning pollster. I wouldn't give their results the time of day any more than I would, say, the Winston Group, Newt Gingrich's hand organ, who have produced such 'glowing' poll results regarding the Tea Party. Their results are bought and paid for.

    Sorry, but you have to be very careful when it comes to pollsters.

    MicMac

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  2. Anonymous3:37 PM

    Here's the official word:

    If Miller wins, it has nothing to do with Palin. If Miller loses, it's all her fault.

    Got it.

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  3. Anonymous3:56 PM

    Don't forget that the conservatives put an anti-abortion initiative on the ballot (Prop #2). That issue always bring out the right-wing extremist voters en masse.

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  4. Anonymous3:57 PM

    “Sarah Palin can claim credit for putting Joe Miller on the map, but not for carrying him to victory, should he end up prevailing,”

    Of course she will. And FB will Glorify Her, and the MSM will play along because they are too lazy to check up on anything. Of course, Hannity will go gaga while having $arah fill up his hour.

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  5. Anonymous4:17 PM

    I just read Miller's wife was appointed by Palin in 2009 to the Alaska Judicial Council. Palin has had her hand in Miller's candidacy in every way. Also, where has Miller's wife taught except homeschooling her own children and a Fairbanks Christian school? Any sense as to her qualifications for her membership on the council? She does appear to have been a law secretary, but is this all it takes to be the citizen council member in Alaska?

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  6. Anonymous4:42 PM

    So I'm nearly finished with Meghan Mccain's book and I'm glad to say she confirms what Palin has said about the staffers all along.

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  7. Those damned facts again. We all know they have a liberal bias, says Stephen Colbert.

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  8. Anonymous5:11 PM

    @4:42 - How can you be surprised? Did you really think Daddy McCain would let her publish anything else?

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  9. Anonymous5:14 PM

    Miller's wife was a secretary for her husband's law firm. Teaching cred is homeschooling. We are NOT paying attention to what is going on. You are watching the 7 Mountains Dominionist movement taking over Alaska.

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  10. Well now it look like a democrat will win the seat.

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