In total defiance of all local political wisdom Teabagger Joe Miller leads incumbent Lisa Murkowski by about three percentage points according to unofficial election results thus far.
Currently as I write this Joe Miller has 51.45% to Senator Murkowski's 48.55%, or 45,188 votes for Miller to 42,633 votes for Murkowski. It is a squeaker to be sure, but the very fact that currently the numbers favor a man who has never held any elected office in this state against a woman with a well known record and famous family name is astonishing to say the least. (The numbers are now even closer with Miller holding onto his lead with 45,909 votes to Murkowski's 43,949 votes. Miller leads by the slimmest of margins with less than 2,000 votes placing him in front, and 16,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted.)
I know that the Palin-bots are going to want to give the lions share of the credit for Miller's success to Sarah for her endorsement, but I would definitely give far more credit to the bizarre mood among the Republicans in this country right now, and the anger on the right toward President Obama. Lisa Murkowski has tried to show herself to be as fanatical as the teabaggers lately, but in reality she is an old school Alaskan Republican who essentially works for the energy companies.
If these percentages remain essentially the same, and Joe Miller remains the leader after a mandatory recount, the one thing it will do for certain is re-energize the Democrats in Alaska.
Personally I would not have given Sitka Mayor Scott MacAdams a snowball's chance in hell of beating Lisa Murkowski, but with Miller on the ticket it will be a much closer contest. And I just have to say that the opportunity to put TWO Democrats in the Senate representing our state will be an extremely attractive opportunity for progressive Alaskans.
However this is the part where I feel I need to eat a little crow. I ABSOLUTELY believed that Murkowski would crush Miller, and his little teabagging friends. The idea of a political neophyte going up against a sitting Senator, backed largely by money from outside of Alaska, and then actually beating them for the nomination of their party seemed completely ridiculous. Alaskans rarely kick out incumbents unless they are convicted of corruption, and even then they are hesitant to do so.
But regardless of how this election turns out in the days and weeks ahead, clearly I was wrong about the support for Joe Miller in this state and the anger toward President Obama among the Alaska Republicans, as well as toward anybody who appears to be in agreement with any of his policy decisions.
All I can say is that if Miller emerges victorious the election in November just got a whole hell of a lot more interesting.
Update: Here is Politico's take on this race.
Update 2: It looks like I will have to save a portion of crow for Slate as well. They did not give Miller much of a chance either.
I too am astonished by these results and am hoping that Lisa will still win after the absentee ballots are counted. Right now with 97.5% reporting she is down by 2.8%. Too close for my comfort and although I am glad that my choice, McAdams handily won, I can't see AK voting for another Democratic senator.
ReplyDeleteMaybe in a 3-way f Murkowski runs as an Independent - that would be be a big f*** you to Palin & her teabagging carpetbagger buddies.
I would imagine, with what you've reported about the general attitude amongst Alaskans regarding Ms Palin (I'm sure she'd hate being called Ms) that in the general having her backing might do more harm than good.
ReplyDeleteIf Alaskans choose Joe Miller to represent them, it will show they learned nothing from their experience with Sarah Palin.
ReplyDeleteOf course, Murkowski is reaping karma right now.
ReplyDeleteI love it! As a liberal I don't hold as much animus for tea baggers as I hold for previously moderate Republicans who shit themselves and refused to stand for what they believed. Indeed, Lisa tried to go Sarah lite.
The chickens Lisa, they are roosting at home--where it looks like you will be for the foreseeable future . . . .
But those little AIPers keep trying to insinuate themselves into the federal gov. don't they? Since Miller's money came from the Birchers the Koch Brothers—by way of Sarah, that means Alaskans are kinda being shifted like game pieces by outside forces. It's more about the Koch's anger at Obama and Alaskan Republicans becoming as reactionary as the rest of all the scared pissing masses.
It WOULD be great if the Democrat beat Miller.
I wish I still gave money to politicos outside my state. I would give it to the Alaskan Dem who is going up against him. If Miller gets in looks like Sarah has bought herself a senator. . . . . He'll probably be disappeared soon afterward leaving a note appointing her to his senate seat. lol.
It's been said that it was Ballot 2 that brought all the teabaggers out to vote.
ReplyDeleteI think it's fascinating that Alaskans voting Republican last night are so politically unastute. You lost your sugardaddy Ted Stevens. Lisa Murkowski is the Republican Party Conference Secretary, 4th in line in the Republican Senate leadership and she's the ranking member on the Appropriations Committee. Appropriations. As in money. Appropriated to places like, oh, the states. I think this demonstrates that Alaskans have no appreciation for how and why they get $1.84 in federal funding back to Alaska for every $1 in federal taxes sent. A vote for Miller was a vote to end the gravy train for Alaska.
ReplyDelete"...that means Alaskans are kinda being shifted like game pieces by outside forces."
ReplyDeleteWhat else is new?
@HeyTammyBruce @JoeWMiller g'night!May Alaska's opportunity to export our pioneering, independent spirit come to fruition w/a miracle on ice about 5 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry® in reply to HeyTammyBruce Retweeted by 20 people
You were not alone to anticipate Murkowski would win. Howard Dean recently stated his opinion that the white house is misreading the political climate outside of DC.
ReplyDeleteI respect you for "eating crow" and reflecting on what shaped your belief and lead to your miscalculation.
The White House may need to improve their PR job getting facts out there, Obama blowing his horn loudly to be heard or more public informaion about measures being taken and positive results manifesting. In the political climate the administration would be wise to present a deficit reduction plan. In the meantime the extreme right and vocal politicians who are so convincing giving misinformation (Boehner strikes me he has no conscience) are so active broadcasting lies, misinformation to instill fear in people seizing the opportunity while the white house is modest.
This political upset and McCain's big win will be analyzed for strategies moving forward for political gamesmanship.
Personally I don't particularly care for politicians who become so entrenched in their beliefs that they refuse to compromise on any issue.
ReplyDeleteI am also sick of these party litmus tests on both sides - we will get nowhere with this approach.
So $arah can get tea baggers elected yet she couldn't beat Obama.
ReplyDeleteLOL!
With or without Palin, the GOP has gone fringy. She's only one in that great ocean of crazy. So, no, I don't credit Palin with anything except stoking the fear and the hatred that already lies at the heart of right wing fringies.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think the only thing that will wake these dumb asses up is to give this country over to the idiots whose policies have taken us to the abyss. It wasn't enough to get to the edge. We need to go right over it and do some real suffering. It's true... most people just don't learn by learning, they learn by living. If hell is what they need, then hell is what they'll get.
Here in Florida, the candidates who spent the most money on attack ads won. I feel sick.
ReplyDeleteThe part that scares me is that, if you look at the overall vote totals, about 3 times as many Republicans cast primary ballots as compared to Democrats.
ReplyDelete"the white house is misreading the political climate outside of DC."
ReplyDeleteReally? 300 incumbents have won their primaries. 7 have lost. That doesn't sound like people are unhappy with their representatives in DC.
"deficit reduction plan"
Did you take US History? Did it cover the Great Depression? The reason the Great Depression lasted so long was as soon as some recovery was seen, the Republicans began to push to reduce the deficit. It extended the Depression, which actually was ended only by the start of World War II. Deficit Reduction right now will extend the current Great Recession for a decade. I bet you're in favor of extending the tax cuts to the wealthy even though they've added $1 T to the deficit since 2001. You can't have it both ways.
Gryphen,
ReplyDeleteHow many Democratic voters are there in Alaska? Or maybe they just didn't come out to vote.
Counting the votes that are in, I see that Murkowski and Miller shared just under 90,000 votes.
All the candidates combined on the Democratic ballot (including the Libertarian) are just under 30,000.
What gives?
Lets just pretend for a moment that this guy wins. And then goes on to win in the general. Lets just pretend that he knows (and so do others) that he's got some pretty dark things squirreled away, things that could cost him his job. What would happen in Alaska? Would Parnell be able to appoint someone to his seat or would there be some sort of special election? Joe seems like a decent enough place holder if you know what I mean, wink ;-*
ReplyDeleteI just don't see Murkowski supporting Miller, if she does end up losing this primary. After Palin went after her Dad in 2006, and now her in 2010, it just isn't going to happen. Maybe she pulls a Lieberman and runs as an independent. Not sure if she'll go as far as Scozzafava in the NY-23 special election and openly back the Dem candidate, but there is no way she backs Miller.
ReplyDeleteHere's my dirty little secret: I'm registered "undeclared" and voted on the the Republican ballot for the express purpose of voting for Miller. BECAUSE McAdams has a better chance of beating him in the general.
ReplyDelete>:-)
How confident are you that the tallies of votes represent the actual votes cast?
ReplyDeleteDoes AK use the infamous Diebold machines?
well I'm a little suspicious gryphen. murkowski hasn't done anything to piss off alaskans (as far as I know) so why would so many of them be mad enough to come out and vote against her?
ReplyDeleteAs a FLorida resident, I will admit that FL is the LAST state that should be look upon as an example for ANYTHING. except for Gov Chiles because that man was incredible. I just spoke with Dr Proctor and he fears Rick will continue to swindle his way through to the top. However, FL may soon be led by a DEM again. and the first female Gov
ReplyDeleteAnon@7:14 Years back I did the same thing as you have done as an undeclared voter. I voted for William Weld against his Republican opponent in the primary. Weld went on to become the Governor of Massachusetts; not what I wanted.
ReplyDeleteI hope you have better success than I did, although Weld wasn't too bad. Massachusetts Republicans used to be pretty moderate. Romney has now moved more right and Senator Scott Brown is Palin lite.
Early last night my husband was asking my predictions, I told him "No way Miller beats Lisa." But then I qualified it by saying that if nothing else here in Alaska we have learned not to underestimate the stupid!!!
ReplyDeleteHowever, Miller should energize the left and could give rational Republicans (no really, its not an oxymoron, I do know some) a reason to stay home.
This proves my point, for years I've said there is something fishy with Alaska's voters count. This proves it. How Miller got any votes is beyond me. I think we need to look into the hinky practices of Alaska.
ReplyDeleteAlaska you just let the Wasilla teabaggers take your state down. Alaska needs federal money, you have no infrastructure. All they had to do was put an abortion issue on the ballot. It could have been a gay bashing issue it didn't matter as long as they got the voters out. Another example of voting against your own best interest.
ReplyDeleteIn the American south the success of the tea baggers is most likely due to their weak character which lets them succumb to racism and hate. In Alaska the racism is the only thing missing. It appears that Alaska is a hideaway for those who can't make it against the competition in the lower 48. Weak character. You would know something about that wouldn't you Jesse.
ReplyDeleteAlaska voters replace a Senator with clout ,position,and the ability to make things better for Alaskans with someone who has to learn the ropes,has no clout,no power,and no ideas. Great.
ReplyDeleteI thought you Alaskan Democrats weren't all that fond of Ms. Murkowski. If this Joe Miller guy is as nutty as some have said, doesn't that give the Democratic party a fighting chance in the general?
ReplyDeleteBut yeah, I'm surprised too--and HIGHLY DOUBT that WGE's endorsement has helped bring down Murkowski.
So is it doubtful that absentee ballots will change anything?
Gryphen. I wanted to give you a word of support after your slightly too exuberant prediction.
ReplyDeleteNo one should attempt to predict how an election will turn out. Lesson learned. Sarah just may "win" this one. If so, good on her. It is just one battle and we will battle on.
Wow are there so many idiots in AK???
ReplyDeleteIf this is bothering anyone then you can thank one of the "undeclared" voters that voted for Miller. They voted for Miller in an attempt to oust Murkowski because then the Democratic candidate would have a better chance of beating Miller than Murkowski in the general.
ReplyDeleteBy playing this political shell game these people have set us up to be stuck with bad representation in DC for the next 6 years. Unless there is some sort of miracle in the General.....
I don't personally believe in doing anything at the polls other than voting for your favorite candidate. These "bait and switch" tactics rarely prove successful. I could be wrong this time but unless Dems hit the polls in November, in force, then we will be seeing a lot of Senator Joe MIller. It's too risky a time in history to risk letting one more teabagger into our Nat'l political discourse, yet we have.
Anon at 7:14AM, those was my thoughts exactly. Lisa was slated to wipe the floor with Miller and she ended up (most likely) losing her seat. It was either bad voting machines or a whole lot of D's re-registered to Undeclared and voting in Miller.
ReplyDeleteEither way something fishy is going on for Alaskans to be so stupid as to cut off their no$e to spite their face.
America's best hope is the TPers and AIPers win control and secede.
ReplyDeleteThen ya'll can tweet your sordid asses off in Russian.
Given the small population in Alaska, Lisa still has a chance to beat Miller. And of course the Democrat will still have a chance if Miller wins. Too bad the red dumbasses outnumber the progressives in Alaska. You'd think some of them would have learned after the Palin mess. Guess not.
ReplyDeleteMy friend and I were talking about Miller/Murkowski and how our State hasn't learned ANYTHING! When she mentioned another friend was 'Positive' Murkowski was going to win in a slide, so he voted for Miller to 'teach' Murkowski a lesson not to get comfortable and to work for Alaskans and not herself. He's now feeling voter remorse..
ReplyDeleteIf Miller wins, it's a win-win situation for national Democrats. Why?
ReplyDeleteMurkowski was a powerful GOP Senator and big oil shill. It would be harder for her Democratic opponent to beat her November.
There's a better chance for the Dems to beat Miller than Murlowski. But even if Miller wins in November, he will be a junior senator with much reduced power compared to Murkowski.
Further, he can't be too much worse than Murlowski in voting against PO. She's been very consistent.
Bottom line: If Miller wins it all, Alaska is the one who will be selectively hurt, not the lower 48 or the Dems.
Palin is doing a great job creating chaos in the GOP, and hurting her own state. Way to go, Sarah.
I'm not astonished at all. It was predictable.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, this represents the urban Alaska demographic and what ever's on the road system - Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su, Glenallen, and all those little places in between. Just like those awesomely strange Sarah Palin approval polls. That's who this IS; who's surprised?
Gosh, thanks, Wasilla and Jerry Prevo. You just threw the entire state under the bus. For what, exactly? Do you guys get it that you all will be the first to feel the crunch? Your communities are the highest in Alaska for sucking off the public teat, Adult Public Assistance, unemployment, WIC, etc. Say goodbye to all your programs, Alaska Tea Baggers! Time to walk the talk, get OFF The Dole and get a frickin' job.
Second, Murkowski pissed off a bunch of us Undeclared (who are the only ones able to choose that stupid restricted separate Republican ballot), with her ridiculous whiny Sarah-Palin-wannabe ads criticizing President Obama. Stupid move, Lisa. There's a whole bunch of us GENUINELY non-partisan folks who vote the person, not the party.
A Senator working for the state in Congress can't have issues with the president. That's gratuitous self-indulging crap. You have to play well with others. Or WE lose out. Get it?
Third, the special Republican ballot is skewing things badly. We REALLY are ALASKANS. We decide from a list of names. I vote for both parties, as well as Republican Moderate and Green.
Originally my plan was to vote for several Republicans and Lisa, depending on who the options were. But instead, I had to choose the Democrat ballot.
So no Republican party votes this time. Your loss, Republicans! Keep doing your separate ballot. Do you realize yet that it just doesn't work for a large group of people who vote conscience instead of party?
Ah well.
Where's Bob Poe when you need him!
The national Tea Party Express reported spending at least $550,000 to help Miller.
ReplyDelete"voted on the the Republican ballot for the express purpose of voting for Miller. BECAUSE McAdams has a better chance of beating him in the general.
ReplyDeleteThat is a juvenile, dangerous thing to do. Once someone is on the ballot, you never know what might happen. I bet if Miller wins the election you won't admit to having voted for an ultra-right-winger.
To the Editor:
ReplyDeleteYou Alaskans are weird:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0810/41415.html
How on earth can you all be against "big government" and "government hand outs," when for every federal tax dollar you pay, you get back five bucks & change?
AND PLEASE no one hand me Mr. Miller's line that if Alaska just had access to all the "resources" and "land" tied up by the federal gov't, Alaska would be one of the "richest" states. Alaska doesn't even have the money to pay for any of your public works--especially since a certain former Governor used a one time oil industry revenue benefit for a large negative income tax, leaving Alaska with no budget reserves.