Friday, October 15, 2010

Hey, I participated in this poll!

Yep I got a call from the robotic voice which conducts the Rasmussen poll who proceeded to ask me a bunch of questions which you can find here, and instead of hanging up the phone and then flipping it the bird like I usually do, I actually took the time to answer all of them because I did not want a bunch of teabagging shut ins to skew the results..

And here are those results: according to TPM:

Miller 35%, Murkowski 34%, and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams 27%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from just under a month ago, Miller had a much stronger lead with 42%, Murkowski at 27%, and McAdams with 25%.

So in less than a month McAdams has gained two percentage points, Murkowsi gained seven, and Miller lost seven.  I am not at all convinced that, since she is a write in candidate, the poll is able to accurately determine Murkowski's percentage of support, but I am fairly positive it is accurately tracking Miller's death spiral.

So with two weeks still to go, it looks like this race could be won by any one of the three candidates.  If Murkowski wins it will automatically go to a hand count, but if this thing stays this close until November 2nd I think a hand count might be unavoidable. Which, by the way, would be just about the ONLY way I would trust the outcome.

9 comments:

  1. Good deal. I have a land line in TX and no one ever calls me...and yes, I'm a registered voter!!!

    Did you all see the blurb in ADN about $50K offering re: streaking in front of Sarah. What a hoot the terms are...must be on video, and Sarah must actually see the streaker.

    I sure hope someone fulfills the challenge, I do believe she is in CA stumping.....

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  2. Anonymous4:53 AM

    I think you're hoping too much. That poll says the race is between Miller and Murkowski and McAdams is a distant third.

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  3. Anonymous5:53 AM

    Re: 4:53.

    Dream on! 27 percent is not out of it, especially not with the margin of error, and especially not with another three weeks to go. If all the Dems in Alaska come out and voted united and the GOP vote is split, this could be a HUGE upset.

    Also, hi, go over to Huffington Post. You'll get a little shocker. Early voting turn out in Democratic counties in Iowa and Ohio are high. Record high! Statistically, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in this country. That's not in dispute. The only reason people think the GOP is going to take over is because they were more excited and Democrats weren't. But this is good news, great news, actually. High turn out is exactly what we need to keep control of the House and Senate. Wonder what could have caused this increase in excitement? Hmmm...Maybe all the wacked-out Tea Bagger, Mama Grizzly candidates with Sarah's seal of approval? Once again, Dems, we may have Sarah to think for an election victory!

    Looks like you made a mistake when you underestimated the community organizer, Sarah.

    In other words: Suck it!

    Of course, this could all turn out to be a terrible joke and all a ploy of voter fraud from the GOP...so I'm trying to temper my "suck it" attitude and am keeping my fingers crossed.

    On the other hand, I live in Illinois in a suburb, the kind of place Mark Kirk is going to have to win big if he has a chance...Yeah, so far, there's, like, two signs for him in my area, and, like three for Alexi. The street where I live, which was, in 2008, full of McCain signs, (two Obamas) there are NO signs for anyone. Methinks maybe the GOP is not so enthused about their RINO candidate? Again...I'm trying not to be too optimistic so I say this in small print (yay).

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  4. Anonymous6:30 AM

    Anon at 5:53, while I hope the trend is for real, the reason those counties have higher absentee turnout is because they sent every registered voter a ballot. It isn't like where I live, you have to fill out an application, send it in, and hope it doesn't get lost in the mail. THAT'S the reason for the high turn out, the counties made it easy to vote.

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  5. Anonymous6:47 AM

    It is absolutely discusting that Joe Miller has any lead at all. The guy doen't give a damn about anybody but himself, story after story comes out about his cheating, lieing, slimeball tactics and yet, he is still leading in the poll. The greedy do win don't they? He makes me sick.

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  6. On Hardball with Chris Matthews last night Chuck Todd called the race alot tighter than 26% for McAdams he said it well might be a tossup because of Millers latest press conference and refusal to answer any further questions. I believe that Murkowski is doing a great service to the Democratic party by running and splitting the Republican base while Joe the Thief keeps on running his mouth and making goo goo eyes at a staffer with already reported loose morals in public.

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  7. I'm not in, or from, Alaska, but I wonder if these polling organizations take into account (or can take into account) things that make Alaska different? High rural/urban ratio, many rural people w/o landline phones, many voters away from home (and their listed home phones) for weeks at a time working on fishing boats, oil rigs, the North Slope, etc.?

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  8. Anonymous8:06 PM

    4:53, I think what's relevant is that support for McAdams has grown tremendously over the past few weeks. As people get to know him and Joe Miller better, no surprise they drop Joe like a hot potato.

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