Could the Republican primary ultimately be irrelevant?

President Obama at Ann Arbor yesterday.

Courtesy of Salon:

Republican presidential candidates have devoted months, if not years, of their lives to chasing their party’s nomination, they’ve raised and spent (along with their super PAC allies) tens of millions of dollars, and they’ve participated in more than a dozen debates – each of which has attracted a massive television audience. 

But a startling new poll underscores what has got to be a maddening possibility for Republicans: It could all be for naught – and there may be nothing they can do about it. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey points to a measurable uptick in optimism about the country’s economic direction, and in the public’s assessment of President Obama’s performance. 

By a 37 to 17 percent margin, respondents said they expect the economy to improve in the next year; back in October, they thought it would get worse by a 32-21 margin. And the number of Americans who believe the country is heading in the right direction now stands at 30 percent – hardly a huge number, but a clear jump from the 17 percent who said so in the fall. Overall, Obama’s approval rating is at 48 percent, the highest it’s been in an NBC/WSJ poll since June, when he was still basking in the afterglow of Osama bin Laden’s demise. 

The numbers are a reminder that a president’s reelection fate is ultimately more dependent on the state of the economy than on what strategy the opposition party employs and which candidate it nominates. If economic anxiety and pessimism are rampant, then winning a second term is a profoundly uphill slog, even if the opposition fields a supposedly weak nominee. But if the public widely believes that conditions are healthy or at least improving, then credit – deserved or undeserved – invariably goes to the White House occupant.

I have been saying this for some time now, but it is very gratifying to have others finally singing the same tune.

The President has taken some huge political gambles, and they are just now really beginning to pay off at a time when Americans are getting ready to vote to, either keep him in office, or choose a replacement from among some of the most ridiculous, and unqualified GOP candidates that we have ever seen.

But right now the jobs situation is turning around in a very noticeable way, the Affordable Care Act has become something that many Americans have already started to rely on, the Iraq war has ended, DADT has been repealed, and now that Richard Cordry has finally been appointed as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, thousands of Americans who left the warmth of their homes to protest Wall Street now feel they have somebody who is finally listening to them and addressing their concerns.

This is NOT reflective of the type of doom and gloom message that the Republicans are using to frighten Americans into voting for them.  All we have to do is make sure the truth can be heard above the anti-Obama drumbeat issuing from the Republicans.

I'm doing my part.

Will you join me?