When Charles Foster Kane takes one final look back at his tumultuous life, he encapsulates it in a single, immortal word: “Rosebud”. (Citizen Kane reference fro the uninitiated.)In years to come, when Mitt Romney takes a look back at this tumultuous election campaign, I suspect he may very well do the same. Except he will not speak of a cherished object, but a person: “Poblano”.
Poblano is the pseudonym of Nate Silver, the sabermetrician and political psephologist who has done more to influence the 2012 presidential election than other political analysts and commentator. Silver is behind The New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog, which conducts a complex statistical analysis of the state of the race, and boils it down to daily estimate of the two candidates chances in the form of a mathematical percentage. Where most political commentators output is the product of briefings, gossip and personal perception, Silver deals in cold, hard facts. And at the moment, Silver’s facts are being fired like bullets into the heart of the Romney campaign.
Over the past week Romney has had a clear strategy; give the impression of momentum. Demonstrate the post-debate surge is continuing. Get people talking about how the race is his to lose.
Nate Silver is Mitt Romney’s nemesis. Not intentionally; although he admits to being an Obama supporter, his whole career is predicated on getting his predictions right. Like he did in 2008, when "Poblano" accurately predicted the result of 49 of the 50 states, and all 35 senate races.
And it is that reputation for accuracy that is so damaging to the Romney campaign’s attempt to sustain their precious “momentum” narrative. People listen to Silver. And over the past 48 hours, the narrative is starting to shift. “Mitt-mentum? Not so fast” – US News & World report. “Romney’s Momentum Seems To Have Stopped” – Political Wire. “The momentum myth” – Washington Post.
In fact, Silver is proving so damaging to their chances that Republican’s are drawing up a strategy for countering him. “Nate Silver continues to lead the Democrat Graveyard whistling choir”, Republican blogger Robert Stacy McCain wrote on Tuesday. National Review decried “Nate Silver’s Flawed Model”. “Everyone but Nate Silver thinks Obama’s lead is evaporating fast”, said Business Insider.
But the truth is we don’t. And the Romney camp knows it.
Yes they do know it, but they are counting on Right Wing radio, conservative blogs, and Fox News to keep everybody else from knowing it.
At that is why Nate Silver scares the living crap out of them. Because he is a numbers guy, and is therefore immune to obfuscation and slick advertising campaigns. He simply hunkers down with his vast array of poll numbers and crunches them until he comes up with the kernel of truth contained within.
And right now that truth looks a little something like this.
(P.S. For those who missed it Nate was on Real Time last night, which you can watch for yourself by clicking here.)
He's only Mitt's nemesis as the truth is Mitt's nemesis.
ReplyDeleteMitt Romney is the most dishonest candidate in recent history.
He is prevarication incarnate. The boldness of his lies are breathtaking, the number legion.
DeleteMitt is the perfect leader of the Republican Party as we know it today.
"Where is Mitt Romney's clock?" the man asks.
Delete"Romney's clock is in Jesus' office," St. Peter says. "He's using it as a ceiling fan."
It's obviously just a joke, but it reinforces an increasingly common observation about Romney's casual relationship with the truth. Consider, for example, the 40th installment of my weekly series, chronicling Mitt's mendacity.
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/10/26/14725019-chronicling-mitts-mendacity-vol-xl?lite
We're not going to let facts get in our way! FORWARD!!!! Go Obama!!
ReplyDeletecough cough (douchebag) cough
DeleteLike our dear president says: Do the arithmetic.
ReplyDeleteHere is the anti-Nate Silver. He thinks he is unskewing the polls by skewing them his own way.
ReplyDeletehttp://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/09/dean-chambers-unskewed-polls.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
Here is a graphic of his projection.
http://unskewedpolls.com/unskewed_projection_2012%20president_02.cfm
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ReplyDeleteI believe that our President should win this election. And I too believe that Myth Romney is the most dishonest candidate in recent history. What really scares the crap out of me is the voter fraud and the voting machines being tampered with. So with that being said , can Nate still accurately say that Obamas lead can continue? I only hope that his lead is so significant that he still wins!
ReplyDeleteWhat scares me is that nearly half of my fellow citizens are too stupid to see what a total fraud he is.
DeleteI flew f16's in the air force, was assigned to the A.F. test center, and between hundreds of weather briefings and one-on-one- with the "mets" breaking down the weather models for me or models of flight characteristics of specific aircraft under certain configurations.
DeleteI'm not certain of much but one thing I'd bet my lungs on: Nate Silver knows squat about modeling. Unless I'm wrong he made his bones as a baseball statistician and he's come up with some sort of model and based on ONE foray into political forecasting he's a guru. I had a neighbor who hit the lottery--once. I don't go to him for financial advice.
Silver's model has so many holes in it you can drive a truck through it. As opposed to models used by meteorologists or aeronautical engineers which are based on established physical primnciples like Bernouli's principle,
Not very long ago a reputed political analyst wrote,
"The ‘fundamentals’ models, in fact, have had almost no predictive power at all. Over this 16-year period, there has been no relationship between the vote they forecast for the incumbent candidate and how well he actually did—even though some of them claimed to explain as much as 90 percent of voting results.”
The "expert" who held that opinion was Nate Silver himself. So, when did he get religion? My guess is when Axelrod recruited him to be a shill for the Obama campaign.
You can predict how a fighter will react if you fly it by precise numbers. It is impossible to consistently predict the choices 130,000,000 people will make to unknown events such as the increasing knowledge a candidate--in this case the incumbent--is being held under suspician for supressing information about an act of war committed on foreign soil against American citizens.
So what scares me is that even one American can believe in a pundit who went on record saying there is no predictive power to polling models but now swears by them and has given no reason why he has changed his opinion. For God's sake, he even wrote a book about about their considerable flaws.
I don't you quite grasp the meaning of "a fraud"
2008 results were Obama365 and McCain173. I hope 2012 will be another landslide.
ReplyDeleteNate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.examiner.com/article/the-far-left-turns-to-nate-silver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles
They are freaked, clearly, and now they're trying to say Nate is 'gay'.
Well, the truth has a well-known liberal bias.
DeleteIvyfree
Nate Silver looked pretty masculine as he walked from the wings of Real Time to his place at Bill Maher's table, and he sounded pretty masculine, certainly as much as the other 3 men at the table.
DeleteI'd say whoever wrote the above is "projecting" -- something most of us here at IM are familiar with, since we see Sarah Palin and her spawn doing it so much.
Einstein probably would be dissed too by these idiots. When all you've got for criticism is a person's appearance, you've lost the battle.
DeleteYour knowledge about Einstein is impressive.
Delete"There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will."
At least this guy had a track record although Bohr and Heisenberg, with quantum mechanics, had Einstein wondering on his death bed how he could have been so wrong.
Here's his Twitter feed if you're interested in keeping up to date on things when they hit the news:
ReplyDeletehttp://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight
Robert Shrum has an article @Daily Beast about Romney's bluff of momentum.
ReplyDeletePersonally I don't want any shape shifting lying imposter to win. Mitt does not deserve to win by pretending to be someone he is not.
Mitt will campaign in Richmond VA tomorrow. Hurricane Sandy may effect the turnout. I was looking forward to comparing the turnout to Obama's stop in Richmond.
Silver may well be right re voters' views, but I don't think he has added voter fraud into the equation.
ReplyDeleteSilver hasn't had his model validated by time; he doesn't vary initial conditions to look for ensemble modeling. He utilizes oblique weighting and collects his data from all other polls without discarding those that are clearly methodologically flawed.
DeleteOther than those minor oversights, he seems to have a solid grasp on what it takes to construct a model that will stand the test of time.
I visit Nate's blog daily. He has the most in-depth/ mathematical analysis of the polling I have ever seen and his past accuracy speaks for itself.
ReplyDeleteIn that case, the obvious conclusion is that you know nothing about models. Silver is not a mathematician. He is a political astrologer.
Delete538 Poll Update Of Republican DOOM! 10/26
ReplyDeletehttp://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/10/26/538-poll-update-of-republican-doom-1026/
I watched him on Bill's show last night - so, so interesting. I love the fact he so accurately indicated how things would go in the last presidential and was dead on!
ReplyDeleteI honestly believe that the media is screwing up the 'real' picture by constantly indicating how close the election is when in fact, it isn't! All to boost their viewership and bring money in for the ads. They make me sick!!!
I abhore Romney and Ryan and the majority of the Republicans currently running for office for the U.S. Congress.
Women need to vote for their rights and mark their ballots for the D's running in their areas. We need to get as many Republicans out of office on the national, state and local levels.
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
The fact that you abhor Romney and Ryan makes your admiration of Silver both predictable and meaningless.
DeleteThe right wing knows Romney is loosing which is why they are making such a big deal about the popular vote. Only problem there (that I see) Romney will lose both the popular and electoral vote. Fortunately for Romney, Queen Anne wants her pampered life back so there will be no more elections (hopefully) and Romney won't have to answer for his poor performance against "that one". Coultier can back pedal and say "I told you so", Scarborough can act like he never supported Romney and go back to being just another blow hard and Limbaugh can laugh all the way to the bank because President Obama is good for his particular brand of hate.
ReplyDelete7:43 I agree w/you. The media has pushed this race to be 'oh so close' and I think they are doing it for ratings and money!
DeleteI can hardly wait for election night as I think President Obama is going to have the majority of the vote across the nation! People are so sick of the Sarah Palins, Ann Coulters, John McCains, Rush Limbaughs types that I honestly think there is going to be one huge, huge surprise!
I don't drink, but plan to purchase 'real' booze and be ready to celebrate on election night. Come join me!!
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
Here's a prediction: on the morning of the 7th, the two of you will
Delete1) Call in sick, 2) Tell anyone who listen that Romney stole the election, and 3) look at your reflection in the mirror and say 'How could I have been so stupid to be taken in by that pretender'?"
Brilliant theory.
DeleteOf course, it violates what partisan papers do which is to present a picture of a cvandidate so far behind it discourages his base from voting. It also suggests the media is having a poll done and then manipulating the numbers.
Again, brilliant. And to make it even more profitable RCP has Romney ahead in four out of five of the latest nationall polls.
You're absolutely correct about one thing: on election night there is going to be a huge surprise.
NY Times: Obama Chances Of Winning Even Stronger Than Yesterday
ReplyDeletehttp://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/ny-times-obama-chances-of-winning-even-stronger-than-yesterday/politics/2012/10/26/52320
Nate gave Mitt a free gift and Mitt was too arrogant to take it (or realize the value). Prior to Mitt's VP selection of Ryan, Nate crunched the numbers and showed statistically the relative advantage of about a dozen and a half potential VP picks. Ryan was near the bottom of the list. As I remember, Portman (Ohio) was at the very top. Nate clearly said the single best advantage a VP pick can bring is to bring the VP's home state. Not working out so well, Ryan - is it?
ReplyDeleteReading Nate Silver's blog is my only way of quieting the anxiety I have about this election. When all others are telling tales of Mittmomentum, I click over to Nate and suddenly, all is right in the world.
ReplyDeleteO/T - sort of. Thought provoking read for those of us who see LGBT rights as a huge part of this election.
http://www.towleroad.com/2012/10/gay-actor-max-von-essens-blisteringly-truthful-facebook-letter-to-friends-supporting-mitt-romney-rea.html
I agree. I turned to his blog in 2008 for the same reason. Every time I started to panic listening to media reports I would go to 538 and it got all better. This time I still do that but I am really worried about voting machine fraud that the Republicans have in the works. Their projecting about (non existent)voter ID fraud makes me believe they are heavily into real voting fraud with the machines.
DeleteHere's some more great sources:
Deletehttp://electoral-vote.com/
http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#election-forecast
http://twitter.com/JeffersonObama
So, I oppose on the 7th, you'll be visiting your doctor to get a prescription for xanax
DeleteSilver seems to like his role as nemesis.
ReplyDeleteTweet from:
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
This is pretty awesome. Per http://unskwedpolls.com, I am "a thin and effeminate man" & therefore not to be trusted. http://www.examiner.com/article/the-far-left-turns-to-nate-silver-for-wisdom-on-the-polls?cid=db_articles …
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/262072856828080128
As opposed to the big fat stinky piggy very ugly manly man making those remarks.
DeleteI agree, Romney is the most dishonest presidential candidate, totally void of integrity, that I have seen in my many years of following politics and I am in my mid-sixty's.
ReplyDeleteRobert Stacy McCain? I've seen that name somewhere before. He's not nearly as famous as Nate Silver. No doubt Robert "the other" McCain has thoroughly refudiated Nate Silver.
ReplyDeleteThen, this:
"...the media now force interracial images into the public mind and a number of perfectly rational people react to these images with an altogether natural revulsion. The white person who does not mind transacting business with a black bank clerk may yet be averse to accepting the clerk as his sisterinlaw, and THIS IS NOT RACISM, no matter what Madison Avenue, Hollywood and Washington tell us." RSM
He's a disgusting hack of the lowest order, vile beyond measure and a huge supporter of Sickly Sarah.
DeleteRobert Stacy McCain's partner in sleaze, Dan Riehl, is supposedly near death's door, or at least in an ICU with respiratory failure (too much huffing glue fumes?). The conservative blogosphere are praying for him.
DeleteI call it karma. Maybe RSMcCain will come down with the same disease.
I was on the comment board last night on the ADN web site. It was crawling with right-wing conservatards who were insisting that the polls show the Romney tied with Obama.
ReplyDeleteI pointed out that Obama has a clear lead in the predicted electoral college votes. This led to great sputtering about how the popular polls were tied. They really didn't like it when I pointed out that popular polls don't elect presidents, the Electoral college does. Remember when Bush won, though he lost the popular vote? Same thing could happen this year with Romney getting the "popular" vote - and Obama sweeping the Electoral college. Tiny heads were exploding everywhere - especially after I pulled out Nate Silver's analysis - which was soundly rejected as biased. Too much fun on a chilly Sat. night.
President Obama will win the popular vote and the electoral college.
DeleteNate has said he thinks a repeat/reverse of the 2000 Bush/Gore outcome is very unlikely.
DeleteSTORMWATCH
ReplyDeleteFreak Storm Hurtles Towards East Coast... Deaths Reported In Haiti, Cuba... Meteorologist Warns: 'Threat From This Situation Is Serious As A Heart Attack'... Presidential Campaigns Cancel Events... LIVE UPDATES
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/27/hurricane-sandy-approachi_n_2029324.html
So why are my neighbors out raking leaves? Do they think they'll stick like cement in those nice piles in the street when the storm hits? Are they in denial or just plain dumb?
DeleteSaw that fat guy - Chris Christie - on the news yesterday saying that the news people are normally wrong about storms and for folks not to worry about it!! (This from New Jersey!)
DeleteWe'll see! For those guys that think Christie would be a good president - think you are horribly wrong. He really seems like a jerk and asshole! Plus, it is pretty obvious he has health problems and will probably die of a heart attack way before his time!
Nate is great. However, this all flies in the face of your recent post "Proof that the Republicans are actively stealing our elections, and have been doing so since at least 2008." How could Nate be so accurate if Republicans are "stealing" votes all over the country?
ReplyDeleteThe difference is polling versus counting votes. The worry is that the stealing will come about by rigging the voting machines.
DeleteExit polling is no longer done, and the voting machines don't give receipts, so WHEN (not if)the polling numbers are different from the vote count, there is not a way to check the difference.
Wild Tortoise
Look at that SMILE when he voted:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.flickr.com/photos/barackobamadotcom/8125568441/sizes/o/in/photostream/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/barackobamadotcom/8125588962/sizes/o/in/photostream/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/barackobamadotcom/8125588738/sizes/o/in/photostream/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/barackobamadotcom/8125589134/sizes/o/in/photostream/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/barackobamadotcom
When Barack gets so close to people, including adorable but germy babies, I worry about him picking up a sickness and maybe a serious one. I hope his peeps douse his hands in purell the minute he leaves the crowd. Sorry, can you believe that's the kinds of thing I dwell on???!!!
Delete11:43 President Bush was known to wash his hands immediately afterwards and I saw video of him doing so. But, I've never seen President Obama do it. Think it would be wise if he did though especially during this campaign as he is running himself ragged and appears to be losing weight! His immune system could be down abit.
DeleteWhat a guy!!! It's almost over - thank God!
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
For a few days there the Romney campaign was boasting a lot about having Big Mo — and the press corps actually fell for it, briefly. At this point, however, the reality seems to be sinking in: if Romney has Big Mo, it looks like this:
ReplyDeletehttp://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/fortune-favors-the-brave/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto
Despite the Denver Debacle and its aftermath, state polls are showing a clear Obama lead in the electoral college, which if anything is getting a bit stronger. The polls could be systematically wrong — although the most likely sources of systematic error are undercounting of cell-phone-onlys and Latinos, both of which would suggest that Obama’s position is stronger, not weaker, than the polls say. Or there could be a game-changing event, even in these waning days. But the odds are strongly in Obama’s favor — three to one, says Nate Silver, even better than that, says Sam Wang. (I worry that Sam understates correlation, but that’s another story).
Why? Jonathan Cohn singles out the auto bailout, and rightly so. I’d add, however, that the killing of Osama bin Laden mattered too. Foreign policy hasn’t been a big issue in this election, but that in itself is a big gain for Democrats compared with the usual taunt that they’re weak on terrorism or whatever; notice how hard Romney has tried to restart the usual meme, with negative success.
And what the auto rescue and the bin Laden strike have in common is that they were both very courageous decisions — decisions that could easily have gone wrong, that faced lots of second-guessing. You can criticize Obama for many things (and I have, and will in future), but he showed true grit when it mattered, and now seems likely to reap the reward.
President Obama holds a six-point lead over Mitt Romney in a new Inquirer Pennsylvania Poll with just over nine full days of campaigning left for the Republican nominee to make a play for the state.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/poll/20121026_Poll__Obama_still_ahead__but_Romney_up.html
How typical of the Republicans to question Nate Silver's manliness - as if that has anything to do with his calculations and their results. Personally, I find his genius very sexy. Wouldn't mind tearing off his glasses and running my finger through his curly hair at all. :)
ReplyDeleteYou know, right? I think smart guys are sexy- I married one!
DeleteI'm thinking the 'sly operators' planting this latest lie look like KKKarl or Robert Stacy McCain. Or James O'Keefe or Mann Coulter, or Sarah Palin. You get the picture!
Delete===============================
ReplyDelete******** Breaking News *********
================================
Gryphen, Faux News is reporting a shocking story likely to break the presidential election wide open.
SYRACUSE, N.Y. - A jury has decided that a Syracuse doctor isn't to blame for an operating-room mishap that caused a pregnant woman to catch fire during a cesarean section delivery.
In an unexpected move, the jury found sitting president Barack H. Obama, openly lifelong dark-skinned Democrat, confessed dark-skinned member of the Democratic Party and brazenly running in 2012 as an admitted dark-skinned Democrat, guilty in the civil negligence suit, although it does not initially appear as if the plaintiff had actually named President Obama in the original complaint.
Jury foreman and Tee Party leader Denny "Dense" Flanigan explained in an inpromptou presser on the courthouse steps that "something about Obama just looks guilty. I dunno, maybe it's because isn't white. Hard to know for sure."
An unnamed White House source was unaware of the verdict but suggested that Mr. Obama was likely to appeal the conviction with an insanity defense on the grounds that the entire jury is "obviously batshit insane".
In Faux News spot polling, Mittens surges 50 points on news of Obama conviction! More details soon on this breaking story!
===============================
But, yeah, Nate Silver rocks.
Lol...we must be neighbors
DeleteEvery single repug spokesperson is clutching his penis and spouting the Party Line on Nate Silver, not realizing that when the election is over, they're going to look really, really stupid.
ReplyDeleteNot one of them is hedging his bet. Not even "Well, Nate has a reputation, but we still feel that..." etc. Nope. Nate has to be wrong wrong wrongity wrong. Because they have to be right.
Seriously. They are, once again, on the wrong side of history. The percentage of rich white over-sixty males is dropping in the U.S. Ultimately they fail.
Ivyfree
More likely than gay, which he may or may not be, Nate Silver shows clear signs of Asperger's Syndrome, on the far side of the scale of autism. (His critics also show a clear sign of anti-Semitism in their remarks.)
ReplyDeleteBUT,Mitt Romney, in my educated guess, also shows signs of Asperger's. It's not a bad constellation of attributes to have, but it's quite clear when you know what you're looking for. And not's very good for a modern day politician.
Nate's cluster of symptoms clearly serve him better than Romney's do, at lest out in the public arena. And, btb, Romney also shows signs of being gay, despite kids and grandkids.
But, whatever, may be best guy win: Nate Silver.
??? Nate shows no evidence of any disorder at all. He sparkled on Maher last night. He's funny, intelligent, straightforward, sociable, and confident.
DeleteIt is my considered medical opinion that Mittens suffers from genital Stage XI Ass_bergers Syndrome. (Note: Stage XI is one worse than Stage X, which used to be the worser. Sure, we could have made Stage X the worse but, yeah, now Stage XI is worse.)
DeleteDisclaimer: Mittens is not now, nor has he ever been my patient so my opinions are somewhat speculative in nature. However, my receptionist has informed me that he has an appointment to see me in my office on Tuesday, so I may have more information then, assuming I'm willing to breach doctor-patient confidentiality, which I probably am.
Dr. Beldar Welby Conehead, ret., president emeritus A.M.A. (Antarctic Medical Association)
------------------
Damn! Gryphen, right after I hit Publish I suddenly realized that I had typed "genital" instead of "congenital" in the first 'graph. Don't bother fixing it, tho. The spelling was intentional.
None of those attributes cancels his Asperger's tendency.
DeleteGood lord. There's a risk in performing diagnoses of folks' neurological status remotely, based on what one sees on TV. Real doctors don't do this.
DeleteI can understand why you posted the above anonymously. You should be embarrassed.
NY Times: U.S. to Offer National Health Plan, "the robust public option that liberals wanted"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/27/1151216/-NY-Times-U-S-to-Offer-National-Health-Plan-the-robust-public-option-that-liberals-wanted
DISGUSTING! WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE???
ReplyDeleteAP: Number of Americans with Anti-black Sentiments Has Jumped to 56 Percent Since Obama Was Elected
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/27/1151200/-AP-Racial-prejudice-has-in-fact-increased-since-the-election-of-Barack-Obama
I don't believe this AP article either. I am white and have numerous black friends and my white friends are friends of theirs too.
DeleteMore bullshit just to gin things up. The ones that are racists are the Republicans (extreme right) and I so hope they are NOT voted into office across the nation. Those and the ones AGAINST womens rights (and there are many currently running in that category).
Pay attention and vote!
OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
Romney Momentum?
ReplyDeleteIf you listen to the media, Romney still has momentum. However, Real Clear Politics has downgraded Romney's Electoral College "safe" states from 206 back to 191.
Doesn't sound like momentum to me.
All movement is relalitive:
DeleteFrom Gallup:
"In the three-day period ending on Oct. 23, says Gallup, 53 percent said they approved of the job Obama was doing and 42 percent said they did not.
On Oct. 24, that dropped to 51 percent who said they approved and 44 percent who said they do not.
On Oct. 25, it dropped again to 48 percent who said they approved and 47 percent who said they do not.
On Oct. 26, it dropped yet again to 46 percent who said they approved and 49 percent who said they did not."
_____________________________________________
THIS is the number you better hope Gallup has wrong. If it's close to
right this election is over.
All motion is relative:
DeleteFrom Gallup:
In the three-day period ending on Oct. 23, says Gallup, 53 percent said they approved of the job Obama was doing and 42 percent said they did not.
"On Oct. 24, that dropped to 51 percent who said they approved and 44 percent who said they do not.
On Oct. 25, it dropped again to 48 percent who said they approved and 47 percent who said they do not.
On Oct. 26, it dropped yet again to 46 percent who said they approved and 49 percent who said they did not.
In May 2011, Obama's approval dropped 7 points in four days, sliding from 53 percent on May 24 to 46 percent on May 28."
Instead of kissing Silver's ass maybe you should attempt to debunk this with a cogent argument--especially since after threatening Gallup with a backbreaking Whistleblower suit, Gallup changed their methodology to accomodate the Obama campaign.
If this number is anywhere near close, this race is over.
I have been a fan of Nate Silver since 2008. I truly think that the media has "ginned up" this whole election in order to stay relevant and to increase viewership. It has trickled down from the top. Think of all the money (an estimated 2 billion) that has been spent on these campaigns. The Republicans are supporting Mitt because he beat out the other candidates. Deep down, many hate him. But they hate the Black man in the White House even more, so they're spending a lot of money selling this poor choice. I remember back in the day when Adlai Stevenson was a sacrificial lamb against Eisenhower in two elections. Although Stevenson was immensely qualified, he didn't have a chance against popular Ike. The excuse that made the rounds was that Stevenson was "divorced" and a divorced man could never get elected to the presidency. That logic was pushed by the Republicans who later supported divorced Ronald Reagan.
ReplyDeleteThis one is a little more optimistic, but highly detailed:
ReplyDeletehttp://votamatic.org/
If I weren't a 62-y-o grandma I'd be lusting after Nate.
ReplyDeleteOh what the hell- just go right ahead anyway!
DeleteI read Nate Silver's blog everyday. It is the only REAL info out there. I showed it to my husband who was a statistics professor and he said he likes what he is doing, so I have confidence (inside joke) that his measurements are accurate. They are certainly more hopeful than imaging STUPID LIARS Mitt and Paulie being elected.
ReplyDeleteWhat does your husband think about this?
DeleteProof that the Republicans are actively stealing our elections, and have been doing so since at least 2008.
theimmoralminority.blogspot.com/2012/10/proof-that-republicans-are-actively.html
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