With still more than two days to go before America votes, Paddy Power, Europe's largest betting company, is paying out to punters who backed President Obama to win the US election.
Despite the national polls showing voters remain largely undecided with nothing more than a sheet of ballot paper between the two candidates, Paddy Power believes it’s a done deal and that Obama is a nailed on certainty to win a second term.
The gutsy call sees the bookmaker put their neck on the line for over $650,000. Prior to paying out, Obama’s odds fell to a low 2/9 and over the past months Paddy Power have seen 75% of money staked go Obama’s way.
A Paddy Power spokesperson said: “Romney gave it a good shot and is doing well in the popular vote, but we suspect he’s had his moment in the sun and is likely to be remembered more for his legendary gaffes than Presidential potential. The overall betting trend has shown one way traffic for Obama and punters seemed to have called it 100% correct. Despite Romney appealing to the large evangelical and senior vote, America‘s sticking with black and cool.”
Paddy Power continues to offer betting right up to and including Election Day. One of the most popular bets currently on offer is predicting the winning margin of the successful nominee on November 6th.
You know I'm pretty confident myself, but I don't think even I have $650,000 worth of confidence.
However these guys seem to have a pretty good track record, so you certainly can't dismiss this as nothing more than a publicity stunt. Especially since I'm pretty sure they could have drawn attention to themselves for a hell of a lot less than $650,000 after all.
Oh and by the way, that other famous gambler Nate Silver, is probably also willing to cash in his chips early if his latest projections are any indication.
I won't be satisfied until Mitt Romney makes his concession speech. I simply do not trust the GOP. In the meantime, I'm holding my breath.
ReplyDeleteBeaglemom
Me, too, Beagle! I don't like the idea of people counting their eggs before they hatch.
DeleteBut! Hey! Longs lines in Cleveland and Miami and no one's leaving! That's a good sign, a good, good sign.
Me either. I have a co-worker who said that because the Redskins lost their last game before the election that means the incumbent will lose, the only exception being in 2004. He said we should start getting used to saying President Romney. I hastened to point out that due to Hurricane Sandy all bets were off. I also mentioned Nate Silver to try to counter his gloomy superstitions. I will not be able breathe deep until it is certain we get to keep Obama.
DeleteM from MD
My superstitious side is NERVOUS. The Redskins lost. In every election when they've lost their last home game before the election, the incumbent has lost.
ReplyDeleteI'm trying to be rational -- lines for voters are really long in Cleveland and Miami! and -- more importantly, Obama won the all-important 7-11 poll and Michelle beat Ann in the Family Circle predictor...plus, uh, there's the polls and stuff...but, GAH! Superstitious! Ugh!
The Redskins lost their last home game before election day in 2004.
DeleteBush still won.
Calm down, you sound like an irrational Far Righter.
Just remember, Obama has ALWAYS beaten the odds in his life. HE IS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES. That's some pretty enormous odds in this country to elect, by a large margin, a dark skinned man to the highest position of power in the country? Obama truly seems blessed in a cosmic way. He has been the 'first' at so many things in his life, breaking down racial barriers, cultural barriers, international barriers.
DeleteI understand how fear (superstition) can take over at times, I've had my moments as well, and that's when I remind myself of how many times this man has beaten impossible odds.
So this will be the year the Redskins losing won't mean anything other than the Redskins losing, because Obama is WINNING!
http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual
Um,
Deletefor Chrissakes!
Get.A.Grip.
Jesus...
PBO also won the Scholastic kid vote and that winner always wins
DeletePBO also won the Scholastic kid vote and that winner always wins
DeleteDear lurking evangelicals:
DeleteIt is time to sit down and have a come to Jesus football prediction moment. In election years since 1984 if 'Bama beats LSU then the Democrats win. Also since 1988 when FSU beats Miami in an election year the Democrats win Florida.
´Bama beat LSU this year. Badly.
Final score of FSU vs Miami: FSU 33 Miami 22.
BOO!
In 2008 Auburn had such a bad year they fired their head coach, Tommy Tuberville.
DeleteRight now Auburn is 2-7, and are definitely going to fire head coach Gene Chizik.
In 2004-2005, the NHL had a long lockout and the incumbent won. In 2012, the NHL is in another lockout.
This is fun.
¨Iḿ trying to be rational...¨
DeleteThe statistics and polls will hold steady.
Cling to rationality and don't be a dummy. Statistical analysis is the best information we have, and it's in Obama's favor. For the same reason you wouldn't lose your shit on an airplane, don't lose it now - it's science and mathematics and it works.
My co-worker invoked that superstition too: the Redskins' loss. I quickly pointed out that Hurricane Sandy meant all bets were off and I also pointed out Nate Silver. Still, I won't be able to breathe fully until I know for certain that we get to keep Obama in office.
DeleteM from MD
For an entertaining election night, I recommend you turn to your local FOX station and watch Hannity's head explode along with a lot of whining from the others. You're also likely to hear a lot of excuses as to why Romney lost, and accusations of how Obama and the Democrats fixed the election. And be prepared to hear a lot of doom and gloom coming from the pundits. As a special treat, they might even have Palin come on to give her usual words of hatred towards Obama and her word salad.
ReplyDeleteYou can always flip to a regular channel to hear the truth every once in a while, but the entertainment factor of watching FOX is sure to be the best comedy going on that night. For those who like to savor those precious FOX moments, you might want to record FOX's election night broadcast for later.
Fox news personalities campaigning for/endorsing Republican candidates:
Deletehttp://mediamatters.org/blog/2012/11/02/map-has-fox-news-campaigned-for-republicans-nea/191067
Yes...old Baldy is set to be on Melon Head InSannity's show on election night....according to the last few patients at the Asylum!
DeleteNo telling what she'll look or sound like! But my bet is...DRUNK and HIGH!
Any takers! LOL!!!
GinaM
DeleteCome on , that's hardly a fair guess since she is always drunk or high.
But I'm guessing she'll be in a super ratted up dirty wig where one side is shorter than the other and its slipping back on her head.
Little Rabbit
Obama would win by a huge landslide if Canadians could vote. Same with the people in the UK, most European countries and any others that were polled.
ReplyDeleteSo much for America's bad reputation overseas.
I must admit that I will derive great pleasure from watching my teabaggers acquaintances' heads explode when Obama wins.
O/T . . .
ReplyDeleteGeoffrey Dunn at Huffington Post:
"SarahPAC Poison: Palin's Last-Ditch Donation to Romney is a Scam"
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/geoffrey-dunn/sarahpac-poison-palins-la_b_2068676.html?utm_hp_ref=politics
I'm f*cking nervous too. And I love Paddy Power.
ReplyDeleteGryph, you must mean BETTING site, yes?
ReplyDeleteRomney loses and will be reduced to nothing more than a wannabe that never was. Sure, he'll still be an entitled millionaire forever enshrined and encircled by sycophants, but he'll never had direct power over you and me.
ReplyDeleteRomney will be remembered!
DeleteFor his gaffes.
And he'll never stoop to a reality show to keep his name out there..can you see it "Mitt and the Grandkids on Holiday." "Ann teaches Mitt how to dressage." "Mitt cleans up horse barns when his illegals become citizens and demand actual wages."
Delete"Tagg is held hostage in Moscow for spying." "Matt takes over Bain and gives back the Delphi pension money."
There could be a thousand episodes of this!
"setting site" ==> "betting site"
ReplyDelete"legendary. gaffes"
ReplyDeleteLEGENDARY!...
'Nuff said.
Legen ... wait for it ... Dary!
Delete"Betting" site?...and I bet so, too!
ReplyDeleteNothing like writing a robo post with a typo in the headline, and being away from my compute4r and unable to fix it for an hour and a half.
ReplyDeleteYes Paddy Power is an online "betting site." Thanks for your attempts to correct me.
Is it Mondya yet? Sheesh!
Mondya? :)
DeleteJust keeping you on your toes.
DeletePublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls
ReplyDeleteBarack Obama leads Mitt Romney 52-47 on our final Ohio poll. Up 60-39 with early voters
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/265247275327037440
Obama up to 85.5% on the Forecast, 87.5% on the Nowcast. Nevada now above 90% for Obama.
ReplyDeleteEnjoying the ride!!!!!!
Grif, not sure if you have seen this, but its a fun interactive page showing the 512ways to victory and the 14 that Romney faces...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html
Romney has 76 paths to victory (not 14), Obama 431, according to the graph.
DeleteIf every pollster backed their data with actual cash payouts, they would all have to say it's Obama. Instead we have a ridiculous polling industry carefully questioning a subset of the remaining Americans that still answer land-line calls from strangers. And a ravenous 24/7 "news" cycle that shoves the pollster drivel out as fact.
ReplyDeleteFlorida Early Voting Fiasco: Voters Wait For Hours At Polls As Rick Scott Refuses To Budge
ReplyDeletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/04/florida-early-voting_n_2073119.html
that's the crap they are trying to get away with
Conservative Talk show Michael Smerconish endorses President Obama
ReplyDeleteMichael Smerconish: The smearing of a president: From start, unrelenting, unfair
The reality is that there is much to be admired in the president and his rise to power. Replace Kenya with Poland or Germany, and you'd have observers rightly saying that only in this country could such a career path be possible. He is a loving husband and father who, with the first lady, is ably raising two daughters in the glare of the White House. He is an intellectual heavyweight. And his personal ethics have been above reproach.
http://www.philly.com/philly/columnists/michael_smerconish/20121104_The_Pulse__The_smearing_of_a_president__From_start__unrelenting__unfair.html
http://www.smerconish.com/
I'm watching Rachel Maddow and she just had a segment on all of the successful attempts to suppress voting: 8 hour lines in Miami/Dade, long lines in Ohio, etc. We just have to hope it doesn't work, but it is scary.
ReplyDeletePresident Obama DOES have some Irish blood and makes his own beer, but I don't think Paddy lets that bias their statistics. Nate's prediction does add to the plus side of placing the bet.
ReplyDeleteDecisions, Decisions...
Citing ‘security concerns’, Romney supporters were not allowed to leave his Pennsylvania campaign rally even though the crowd had been waiting in the freezing cold for the tardy candidate for hours.
ReplyDeleteReporters at the event tweeted the chaos as Romney supporters were forbidden to leave the event.
http://www.politicususa.com/romney-supporters-illegally-imprisoned-pennsylvania-campaign-rally.html
Freezing children, all for a desperate photo op in a state where he will lose badly, he's just trying to pull a bluff to keep the media saying he's losing.
The contrast is amazing-
Deletehttp://www.politicususa.com/romney-holds-supporters-hostage-pa-obama-dances-ohio.html
BTW, I've been to Bucks County, they just got their electricity back yesterday and today, and there's a frost alert and I can imagine what those people with kids felt like.
What a desperate, dispicable buffoon - shame none of them have the sense to sue.
How can they do that? I mean, I think more people will vote for Obama, but how do you factor in the rethuglican cheating factor? That's what scares me.
ReplyDeleteI'm really hoping Romney is mainly remembered as the shitstain on the history of Presidential campaigning.
ReplyDeleteIt appears they may have lost a lot of money.
ReplyDelete