Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Revenge of the nerdy number cruncher. Or Nate Silver becomes a God among men. Update!

"It's math"
Remember this from two weeks ago?  

Silver currently writes about the polls and politics at a web site called that is affiliated with the New York Times. His currect projections of the presidential race look quite favorable to the incumbent, President Obama, both nationally and especially in the swing states. Routinely he assigns percentage odds of a candidate (usually his beloved Obama) winning a state far higher and disproportionate any reasonable odds of that candidate winning a state as indicated by the polls. 

His blog site has an article yesterday arguing that Mitt Romney's momentum in the polls has stopped. This is wishful thinking of a liberal given that the polls continue to improve for Mitt Romney. He still has Obama winning in Virginia and Colorado even though the most recent and credible polls in those states show Romney winning them. He gives Obama a 73.4 percent chance of winning Ohio, which is downright absurd, as Rasmussen has the candidate tied in Ohio, which really means the undecided voters tip the state of Ohio to Romney if the election were held today. So much for that fantasy-land 73.4 percent chance of Obama winning Ohio. 

Nate Silver is a man of very small stature, a thin and effeminate man with a soft-sounding voice that sounds almost exactly like the “Mr. New Castrati” voice used by Rush Limbaugh on his program. In fact, Silver could easily be the poster child for the New Castrati in both image and sound. Nate Silver, like most liberal and leftist celebrities and favorites, might be of average intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be. His political analyses are average at best and his projections, at least this year, are extremely biased in favor of the Democrats.

That exceeding unintelligent. insulting, and hysterically incorect post was written by conservative Republican, Dean Chambers, who was so pissed off that Nate Silver's 538 blog was making the case that the GOP's candidate Mitt Romney had ONLY the slimmest of chances of winning this election that he actually started his own polling site called, which has, for some odd reason, recently been yanked off the internet.

Dean Chamber, a man who CLEARLY should not be casting aspersions about sombody's appearance.
As we now ALL know the conservatives HATE facts, because of course they tend to have a liberal bias, and they hated on Nate Silver with the white hot intensity of somebody who has just found out their trophy wife is banging their son's math tutor.

So they threw everything they could think of at Nate Silver, while those on the liberal side virtually made him our informational guru. 

In the end Nate was so close to the final electoral tally as to be almost scary.

As of this post, Florida has not yet been called.  However it is leaning Obama's way and if/when he wins it he will have won 332 electoral votes, which is just nineteen more than was predicted by Silver's model.  If by some chance he does lose Florida he will only be nine shy of Nate's prediction of 303 electoral votes.

Statistically speaking THAT is un-fucking-believable!

In other words the math that the Republicans tried so hard to ignore essentially snuck up on them and bit them in their chunky pasty white asses!

Which also means my friends, that if tomorrow we wake up and Nate Silver posts that there is an 80% chance of an alien invasion, I am going to take the day off and drive to whatever open field they are predicted to arrive at and welcome our future alien overlords with open arms.

Hey, it would STILL be better than if Mitt Romney had actually won the election!

Update: Dean Chambers eats a big helping of crow.


  1. Save the parking spot next to you for me.

  2. Anonymous1:11 PM

    He's a disgusting fool to comment on Nate's appearance, etc., but he has had the guts to admit that he was wrong and Nate was right. Nerds unite!

    1. I agree. For him to have described Mr. Silver 's physical appearance was not germaine to the topic at hand. For him to have described him in the way he did is despicable. Nate Silver is a gas!

    2. Anonymous5:21 PM

      Repubs/ad hominem attacks not surprised at all Attack the messenger and make a remark about what he looks like unless he is paylin!

      Data crunchers who helped PBO

  3. Anonymous1:14 PM

    Dean Chambers, what an asshole.

  4. He kept me buoyed after the first debate.

  5. Anonymous1:27 PM

    I was obsessed with checking Nate Silver's blog daily if not hourly. Thanks were my port in the storm. Job well done...again.

    1. Anonymous4:20 PM

      I started checking more frequently as the election got closer. As soon as I got nervous reading some other political blog, I'd head on over for a dose of calming statistics.

  6. Anonymous1:36 PM

    Nerds are sexy as hell!

  7. Anonymous2:01 PM

    If my information is correct at least 6 of the states experiencing long lines, problems that turned away some voters, etc. have Rethug governors including the infamous Rick Scott in FL and their attorney generals, except for Nevada, are all Rethugs as well.

    Georgia, Florida,Nevada,Pennsylvania,Virginia, and Texas all have some 'splaining to do about their behavior at the polls on Tuesday. Florida sent out calls to their constituents telling them they had until 7 pm today (Wed, 11-7-12) to vote among other tactics to keep the Dems from getting to the polls.

    As well, we know 3 incidents where Hispanics were sent the date of 11-8-12 to vote while the same mailings for whites from the same source stated 11-6-12.

    Rethugs are not very good at cheating, maybe really prolific liars, but cheating, nah, they failed at that too.

    Maybe Chambers thought they had so much prevaricating and obstructing planned against the liberals the R's just couldn't lose. Koch and Rove couldn't buy the election either. How great is that?

    Must not go to sleep at the switch, though as these culprits are still among us.

  8. Anonymous2:08 PM

    It amazes me that someone who is obviously sporting a generous pair of man-boobs thinks it's cute to call Nate Silver effeminate. In fact, Dean Chambers bears a distinct resemblance to Ned Beatty in the "squeal like a pig" scene from the film "Deliverance."

    1. Anonymous2:42 PM

      Bro could def benefit from a "bro" or a "mansiere" :-)

    2. Anonymous6:27 PM

      Nice tits, Dean.

  9. Anonymous2:10 PM

    Chambers owes Nate an apology for the insults, not only for questioning the veracity of his methods. Until the (and, actually after then), Chambers is still a jerk.

  10. Anonymous2:10 PM

    Now you know why the Republicans are trying to curb any form of education, especially when it comes to science. They don't want those pesky facts getting in the way of their rhetoric.

  11. Anonymous2:12 PM

    Nice picture of yourself jesse, now where's that picture of your queer dotter?

    1. Anonymous2:37 PM

      Hi Wallow.

      Drunk and high again? One of your nephews asked me to pass along a sweet message.

      "Fuck you, Aunt Wallow! I hate you!"

      Your loving (half?) sister, or so I'm told.


    2. Anonymous2:37 PM

      Thats the dumbest attempt at trolling I've ever read.

    3. Anonymous2:40 PM

      You absolutely frighten me as you speak with the voice of a true sociopath and I don't doubt that you have bodies buried in your backyard. I really hope you don't live in AK, but you probably do because we get ALL the crazies up here.

    4. Anonymous2:44 PM

      Ding ding ding!! We have a winner!! Fucktard of the month award!!

    5. Hello Troll...did you misplace your bridge?

      Boy...the Palin Trolls are REALLY angry today! Gee...I wonder it because the bald retarded fella that ran for VP 4 years ago is the laughing stock....again...of the world! LOL!!!

    6. Anonymous2:56 PM

      Oh's the "queer dotter" troll again! PLEASE explain to me what that is exactly. Does someone work in a polka dot plant and is in charge of putting all the strange ie "queer" dots on things?

      Obviously one of those pesky Palin's again. I am thinking they are paying Piper to post, since Willow is too busy learning to cut hair and Bristol is busy fucking a ski boarder.

      Seriously, though, what planet do you live on? I am sure Jessie and his daughter get a laugh out of your stupid comments. They offend me, but then I am offended by stupid people. The word daughter is taught in 3rd grade spelling, so clearly you didn't even make it out of the 3rd grade. And in 2012, real people don't give a damned about other people's sexual orientation.

    7. Anonymous3:49 PM

      Yes, the "queer dotter" troll needs some new material. Guess you're having a shitty week, what with the Teabaggers going the way of the dinosaurs, the Republican Rape Twins losing, and best of all, our President, Barack Obama, handily winning a second term. And poor Sarah Palin, the best she can do is appear on Faux News looking like Phil Specter. Also, my daughter is 6, and she can spell the word "daughter." Why can't you?

    8. Anonymous4:25 PM



      THAT'S what this idiot was trying to spell???

      I think I'm getting a headache...

    9. Anita Winecooler6:44 PM

      The troll doth protest too much

  12. ... "Update: Dean Chambers eats a big helping of crow."

    Not big enough to justify his attacks on Nate Silver, IMO. Chambers was a shill pretending to have some kind of "leveling the playing field methodology against all of the biased MSM polls", when, in reality, he KNEW he was writing slanderous/libelous garbage with his fat ass (not just his thumb) tipping the scale.

    His problem is a lack of ethics and being a lying asshole, not just a math deficiency. He was a punk, a bitch, a prostitute for powerful people that paid him to be a smoke screen from reality. So Fuck that goddam shill!

    He deserves to be a fucking pariah, along with Donald Trump and the grifting bitch from Wasilla, AK. You know the others, and I'm not going to the effort to list them all, just the worst. They will say anything about truly classy, competent, professional people in order to defame them, and they are rewarded by a perverse "conservative" wing of sick, fucking hypocrites. TRhey also defend wrong behavior by lying and glossing over the truth.

    Dean Chambers can fuck off and die. Yes, today is a great day! But I refuse to soften my position because some idiot says, "Sorry, my math wasn't so good after all" after all he's said and done to create division among ignorant people who trusted him.

  13. OT but i believe you will a kick out of this, caught it at C4P:


    Governor Palin, let us know what you need us to do to help you. Your army is still here..intact.
    Palin 2016!

    X X: in reply to palinpatriot2012

    You sound 10x worse than the most ridiculous Obama supporter with that statement. Seriously, do you read the nonsense that you "sound"mentally ill. Though I suspect you probably are a decent person.

    But c'mon, leave Sarah alone....think for yourself. If you want to buy her books or watch her on TV that's fine but you folks have got to get behind someone who is on the front lines with the army...

    by that I mean someone willing to RUN and do something..and not a person who sits comfortably and issues directives from a TV studio in Alaska or on Facebook or occsionally pops in to cozy election rallies for someone else.

    There is not much glory hanging out with Neal, Greta and Sean while nodding and smiling and telling each other how smart they are. Employ your passion elsewhere.

    Mama Grizzly is no longer relevant and not ferocious anymore...more like she's a dancing bear at the FOX News channel who dances for a paycheck from Roger Ailes. YOU KNOW THAT'S TRUE. Good Luck



    1. Anonymous2:45 PM

      Sarah is trying very hard to be relevant. Now she is posting on Chuck Jr.'s website, blaming the Republicans for snubbing the Tea Party. I guess that Sarah chose the Tea Party, blaming the Republicans for her losing her race against Obama. (Never mind that McCain was the candidate running against Obama, for Sarah, it was personal). Sarah reminds me of Glenn Close in "Fatal Attraction," saying, "I will not be ignored." Maybe she can get a gig on Trump's Apprentice Show. Sarah lost her political credibility a long time ago.

    2. Definitely LMAO material! Thanks for wading through the muck to find this gem!

    3. Anonymous3:36 PM

      They are Tea Party fools:

  14. Anonymous2:35 PM

    Unhinged Palin supporter...

    1. Anonymous4:24 PM

      That is profoundly sad and hilarious. I hope someone will make a documentary on reactions like Trumps, drunken hyper rant person and others.

    2. Anita Winecooler6:59 PM

      She's unhinged and needs help desperately. I'm picturing Ram, a trailer, hoarder's episode, and cats, lots and lots of cats.

      Eight months in a Palin group bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!

      Someone call the SPCA, ASAP!

      Someone tell her there's a cure - but call it "The Affordable Health Care Act", she might not take too well to "OBAMAcare"

  15. Anonymous2:51 PM

    If you straightened out Chubs' 2 chins, he'd give ol' Beefy a run for her money on having a long face.

  16. Anonymous3:14 PM

    Jon Stewart has Nate Silver on his show tonight

  17. Science and math seem to get in the GOP's way time and time again. You'd think they'd learn, but I don't think they will. You just can't fix stupid.

    1. Anonymous3:59 PM

      Oops I first read that as "science and meth get in the way ...". On second thought, maybe so.

    2. Anonymous4:22 PM

      Deni, you neglected to include that facts get in their way too.

  18. Anonymous3:53 PM


    If you look at the blue and red 'colors' of the states on Nate Silver's map on the right side of his page:

    Nate Silver got 100% of them correct.
    Note: That is if Florida is called for Obama later today or tomorrow - which it looks like it will be.

    So, YES - Nate is a genius :)

    1. Anonymous4:30 PM

      I was extremely impressed last night when I compared the maps. And that was when VA was still in the Romney column, where it still was when I went to bed.

      This afternoon I was shocked to see that he was right about that state too!

  19. Nothing to do with Nate Silver, I just wanted to share this pic taken by a friend in downtown Boise yesterday. The guy on the left is Idaho's Republican governor, Butch Otter:

    1. Anita Winecooler7:01 PM

      Butch looks like he's interested in applying for the job, just saying!

  20. Anonymous4:31 PM

    Dude looks like he has eaten more than his share of crow, along with grits, gravy, Ho Hos, Moon Pies....

    Vero Guy

    1. Anonymous6:14 PM


      This Fat Fuck looks like he eats gravy on his moon pies, gravy on his Ho Hos, gravy on his grits, and even gravy on his sister's titties whenever he can get her to go out with him.

      Chambers probably has pics of Beefy from DWTS 2010 on his fridge that he beats off looking at while eating a box of Little Debbie Snack Cakes.

  21. I can't believe how people in glass houses go around throwing stones. For this obese person to deride Nate Silver on his brains and physical appearance is ludicrous.
    For a fun poll to freep: here is a poll for the next leader for the republican party...can you guess who I voted for??? Sara! Sara! Sara!!

  22. Anonymous6:03 PM

    Geeks rule and can lay that pipe. Repugtards? Um, not so well, my friend.

    Hence, Nate Silver is "packing" and can "go to town" with the babes.

    Dean Chambers, even when his Viagra supply-on-hand rivals Rusho's, still has a short, skinny male member that he can't see unless he looks into a mirror and squints.

    And worst of all, Chambers has got no soul.

  23. Anonymous6:23 PM

    I bet that fat boy got some perty teeth.
    Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! Weeeeeeeeeeeeee!

  24. Anita Winecooler7:11 PM

    I'll take smart over ugly anyday. Nate's been my go-to guy since he started his predictions, and he was right all along.

    The other dude is just a waste - if facts hurt - then change them - problem solved. But I have to give him props for having some shame and admitting he was wrong. There's hope for him.

  25. Persephone4:05 AM

    Actually, with Florida at a near tie, his model essentially split those votes to get the 313/225 split.

    if you look at Nate's probability graph, you'll see that the highest probability is for approx 330 electoral votes (and has been for weeks). Seemed crazy at the time, but boy was he right!


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