Monday, October 07, 2013

With Republicans fighting each other tooth and nail, is a possible Democratic takeover of Congress a real possibility? Maybe.

This is taken from a much longer article over at the Daily Beast concerning a new poll taken by Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin, in which he states that only 20 percent of the electorate thinks that the government shutdown is a rational or reasonable approach.

His take is supported by William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a veteran of the 1995–96 shutdown when he was President Clinton’s domestic-policy adviser.:  

Before the shutdown, Democrats were pretty much reconciled to falling short in efforts to retake the House next year. With so many gerrymandered seats, the 17 pickups Democrats need seem out of reach and may still be. But Galston points to research that says Democrats can overcome the structural disadvantage they face if they add 5 percentage points in their overall votes for the House, then they would have a better than 50 percent chance of winning control. “The Republicans are doing the only thing that could conceivably endanger their majority,” Galston says. The latest Quinnipiac and Pew polls show Democrats with a 9-point generic edge, twice what it was in late August. “After the dust settles next November and the generic Democratic edge is 9 points, I guarantee you the next speaker is Nancy Pelosi,” he says. 

On the Senate side, Republicans need six seats to gain control of the chamber. In just about every contested race, Republicans are battling each other in primaries to see who can be the biggest cheerleader of the government shutdown. “If Ted Cruz becomes the public face for the Republican Party, it will be a cold day in hell before they have a Senate majority,” says Galston. The last shutdown 17 years ago helped reelect Clinton. This one could give Obama the Congress he wants. 

I am cautiously optimistic, but if the Republicans were able to make such incredible gains in 2010, using unsubstantiated fear of the President to energize their electorate, I don't see why it would be impossible for the Democrats to use the very much substantiated fear of what these Teabagger idiots are doing to our political system to run the board on them in 2014.

I mean it is not like there is not ample evidence as to the negative effects of this group of insurgents on the country, so all it takes is to wait out the upcoming Bloodsport version of the GOP primaries and kick the broken and battered survivor in the face before he can regain his footing.

All I know is that I am going to keep a happy thought.

18 comments:

  1. Anonymous12:49 PM

    Keep Cruz in the nuz.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Randall12:49 PM

    The Republicans shut down the government on October 1st in order to stop Obamacare.

    The health-care exchanges opened on October 1st and many of the changes mandated have taken place.

    The shut-down did NOT stop Obamacare.

    So ask your Republican friends WHY is the government
    STILL SHUT DOWN?

    WTF is the POINT?

    ...seriously, what exactly is the point?
    What are their demands?
    WHY won't they pass the CR?
    WHY won't John Boehner even let it come up for an up or down vote, for Chrissakes?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. His owners won't permit it. Yet.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous12:26 PM

      Why? Because they're going to use the ACA as leverage for raising the debt ceiling/avoiding default. Rafael Cruz has already said as much.

      Delete
  3. Caroll Thompson12:55 PM

    Happy Monday G. The R's might also lose the House because right wing nutjobs, not currently in Congress are going to win some primaries and unseat some incumbent R's. These nutjobs will be so far right that even Republicans will not vote for them and instead will vote for the Dem. Delaware with "I am not a witch" Christine O'Donnell is an example as is "second amendment" Sharon Angle out of Nevada who helped Harry Reid win another term. And who can forget that idiot Atkins out of Missouri who claimed you cannot get pregnant if you are raped. Thanks to him, Claire McCaskill won another term.

    So, bring it on Teabaggers. Give us your most right wing nutjob for Congress and see what happens.

    ReplyDelete
  4. And it can't get here soon enough!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous1:21 PM

    But we cannot become complacent. November 2014 is a long way off and the way the mainstream media (that is, television news) plays out the story, Washington is the problem implying that President Obama and the Democrats in Congress are as responsible for the mess as are the Republicans.

    What has really struck me is that the Republicans, who hate unions so viscerally, have been on sit down strike ever since President Obama was first inaugurated in January 2009. And then they went into "factory sabotage" after the 2010 takeover of the House by the GOP teabaggers. And now they're holding the whole country hostage for what exactly? Their disappointment that George W. Bush's disastrous two terms were not followed by another disaster: John McCain and Sarah Palin. They are punishing the American people simply because the people were smart enough in November 2008 to reject them. I think that is the case that the Democrats have to hammer home to the voters before November 2014. As we all know, American voters tend to have very short memories. We cannot afford, as a nation, to let the voters forget that this mess has been brought upon us purely by the GOP.
    Beaglemom

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anonymous1:41 PM

    Sarah Palin is usually the jinx. Maybe her mojo will work this time, too, allowing the Democrats to take back the House.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I'm not convinced of anything until we hear from Nate Silver.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Leland4:04 PM

      I won't be convinced until it happens!

      Delete
  8. Anonymous3:05 PM

    I agree with Anonymous 1:21. Remember how vilified Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker was? How much enthusiasm there was for recall? Well by the time deadlines for filing, etc. were passed, the enthusiasm had subsided and the people of Wisconsin voted him in again. We have to keep the pressure on.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think this may more a case of Wisconsonites failed to vote him out by NOT going to the polls and casting their ballot (or however voting is done in WI). The GOP does get their voters out more than the Dems do, unfortunately.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous 3:05 PM wrote: I agree with Anonymous 1:21.

      Now, it may have just been a slip of the mouse on your part—in which case I apologize for rubbing it in—but if you had clicked on the Reply link just below 1:21's comment, your response would have appeared there, right below to the comment you were agreeing with. Not meaning to tell you where to place your comments, of course … just sayin'.

      Delete
  9. Randall3:34 PM

    Imagine what President Obama could with a majority in the House and a Supermajority in the Senate.

    Just imagine...

    ...and idiots like Sarah Palin won't even realize it was them that brought it about.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous4:27 PM

    Makes me feel badly that the possibility is a 'maybe' in taking over the House next election cycle. As horrible as the Republicans are - the obstructionists they have been since President Obama was elected - their anti women, blacks and brown people - I feel they are the scum of the earth and should be voted out of office lock, stock and barrel!!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anita Winecooler7:55 PM

    Keep Calm, Carry on and stock up on popcorn.

    ReplyDelete
  12. dlbvet9:08 PM

    As above...I'm waiting for Nate the Great to weigh in.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anonymous1:35 AM

    I think the pollsters are underestimating the backlash from the recent (since 2012) Rep. attacks on women, minorities, failure on immigration, gay marriage equality. The attacks hit people right where they self-identify..it's not like a failure to pass or veto a tax, or some other passing issue. A died in the wool Rep. gay who wants to get married is going to vote for a Democrat. The trick is to get people to vote their own interests, not what the Rep. TELL them is their interests.

    ReplyDelete

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