Courtesy of Five Thirty Eight: So it’s almost certain that Republicans are going to gain seats. The question is whether they’ll net the six pickups necessary to win control of the Senate. If the Republicans win only five seats, the Senate would be split 50-50 but Democrats would continue to control it because of the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Joseph Biden.
Our March forecast projected a Republicans gain of 5.8 seats. You’ll no doubt notice the decimal place; how can a party win a fraction of a Senate seat? It can’t, but our forecasts are probabilistic; a gain of 5.8 seats is the total you get by summing the probabilities from each individual race. Because 5.8 seats is closer to six (a Republican takeover) than five (not quite), we characterized the GOP as a slight favorite to win the Senate.
The new forecast is for a Republican gain of 5.7 seats. So it’s shifted ever so slightly — by one-tenth of a seat — toward being a toss-up. Still, if asked to place a bet at even odds, we’d take a Republican Senate.
I want with all of my heart to dismiss this out of hand and say that Silver's numbers are off, or that he is missing a powerful demographic, or underestimates the progressives. But I can't.
Nate knows this stuff backward and forward, and to dismiss him would be to our disadvantage.
Still he is making his predictions on what the polls tell him today, if there were a change his findings would reflect that as well.
We have GOT to find some way to increase the desire by the liberal demographic to not only protect what they have, but to try and increase the margin.
Personally I don't get it. If seeing what the Republicans are doing to the country right now is not inspiring progressives to turn out in droves then what exactly are they waiting for?
Sarah, did you read this? Finally someone's told you "what a VP does."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.glennbeck.com/2014/06/09/pathetic-miss-usa-contestants-face-tougher-questions-than-president-obama/
ReplyDeletePerhaps an ad that should be considered; "Fine, you know what you're voting against. But, what are you voting *for*?"
ReplyDeleteA thought that should be, "That's fine; you don't like my idea... but do you like his idea any better?"
I couldn't be happier about this.
ReplyDeleteYou must hate America and everything it stands for.
DeleteBest news all day!
ReplyDeleteOh go somewhere else. If he's right, this country is doomed.
DeleteDiane, are you the ghost of leona Helmsley?
DeleteThe Democratic Party needs to stop being chicken shit and aggressively stand up for their agenda and call out the GOP lies and anti-Democratic agenda. They need to learn how to message and how to gain the dominate voice in the media.
ReplyDeleteAnd why did they ever replace Howard Dean as DNC chair?
Too many Democrats in office are either chickenshits who are afraid to stand up for the people in the face of Republican bullshit, or are DINO's. I'm sure it's not necessary to give you any examples. They are all over. There is one in the White House too often, too. President Obama spent far too much of his first term catering to Republicans and letting Democrats, especially progressive Democrats, twist in the wind (which is why I have never understood the "ILoveMyPresident" crowd -- how can you love a politician who campaigned on hope and change, but whose first term chief of staff was the execrable corporate toady Rahm Emmanuel?).
ReplyDeleteDemocrats need to give use strong progressive candidates like Elizabeth Warren, candidates who give us a real reason to vote for them. Don't blame it all on voters when too many candidates are of the "just barely not as bad as the other guy" type.
+1
DeleteGryphen- you say 'If seeing what the Republicans are doing to the country right now is not inspiring progressives to turn out in droves then what exactly are they waiting for?'......
ReplyDeleteDid you ever stop to consider that maybe this country isn't as liberal and progressive as you wish it to be? I see people writing above that the dem's aren't pushing their liberal progressive agendas hard enough... Wake up folks, what is scaring voters away back to the center is a push too hard to the left and the ever expanding, costly, hugely bureaucratic, and unaffordable government. (btw im not saying the repubs dont grow government either, but currently the democrats are in power and they have always had the big government stigma).
Oh puh-leeze. Look what Reagan and the Bushes did. You're gping to get exactly what you voted for and don't come crying to us when you don't like it.
DeleteFear mongering by the corporatists and plutocrats very effectively influences the plebeian low information folks on the right. It always has. They are ignorant folks with limited cognitive abilities who are easily manipulated. There are a lot of them. They will continue to vote against their self interest, and like the Norris troll above, be giddy.
Delete1:54 - I don't vote either party because they are both totally corporate controlled. Congress, Senate and Obama's white house. Until people realize that, don't really expect anything very different in government. Jeb or Hillary, eh, they may as well be one in the same. But you are skipping my point that this country really is not a very liberal progressive country, and it will vote out the democrats if they swing too hard to the left, I'm just letting you know the reality of what will happen- its got nothing to do with what I want or don't want.
Delete"Jeb or Hillary, eh, they may as well be one in the same" says 1:54.
DeleteYou, sir or madam at 1:54 are to be pitied. Your education has failed you as you are unable to make some very basic distinctions.
Fortunately, Democrats outnumber you and if we Democrats get out the vote, we will keep the Senate.
The key is to get out the vote and I will do whatever I can to help with that.
I see it very different Liz.
DeleteEither choice is the very meaning of plutocracy.
Maybe you should expand your mind beyond your indoctrinated education, and test the limits and edges of the playing field that you have been instructed not to venture out of.
Don't bother with your 'pity' talk (it is no wonder why the libs get labelled as condescending snobs- because you are).
Anyway Liz- why don't you argue your points with Nate Silver, or better yet the results of 2014, instead of me?
If you don't vote either party and describe Jeb and Hillary as "might as well be the same" there's no arguing with you as you're an idiot.
Delete"I don't have time for this nonsense."
But I WILL get out the vote in your honor, LOL!
Between the gerrymandering, the right wing media's poisonous brainwashing agenda and all those slackers who don't have the motivation to turn out, we have our work cut out for us. We may yet prevail if enough minorities and outraged women turn out.
DeleteM from MD
Right on, M from MD:
DeleteJust two tasks:
Vote.
GOTV.
Agree!
Delete"Wake up folks, what is scaring voters away back to the center is a push too hard to the left and the ever expanding, costly, hugely bureaucratic, and unaffordable government."
DeleteAnon 1:39, you have been drinking from the Kool aid fountain. The problem is people like you who don't make the correlation between propaganda and fact. Who believe talking points which have been pushed by the right since the Reagan administration. Who vote against their own best interests or if not your own (because for all I know you have a trust fund or have inherited money). But, when you vote Republican you are supporting politicians who; to make it simple, WILL overspend on the Military Industrial Complex, and Corporate Tax Breaks. Who WILL privatize Medicare and Social Security and Public Education. Who WILL sabotage Civil Rights, i.e. a woman's right to choose, gay marriage rights, equal pay for woman and a working class minimum wage. The ilk that are in office now have stood in the way of immigration reform and jobs bills. They have shut the government down twice and then pointed the finger at the President. Just meditate for a few minutes and think about what kind of person you truly are and what kind of country you want to live in. Having my tax dollars spent by a responsible government on Safety Nets for the poor and elderly, stimulus money that creates job for the Middle Class and funding for Public Education and Infrastructure is how I vote. I wouldn't call that too Progressive or too far to the Left, I would call it voting for my own and my fellow citizens best interests!
READ
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/05/24/who-is-the-smallest-government-spender-since-eisenhower-would-you-believe-its-barack-obama/
http://home.adelphi.edu/sbloch/old_deficits.html
I have to accept that a majority of my fellow citizens want this kind of representation. WOW
ReplyDeleteI think it's more misinformation and misrepresentation that actually favoring the GOP agenda. Think about the large number of citizens who approve of the provisions of the ACA but are against, even fearful of, Obamacare.
DeleteSpeaking of Sarah Palin....
ReplyDeleteLooks like she read IM yesterday which bolstered her victim status as the first victim in a war on women. What she's missing is that she was the GOP's first weapon...not a victim.
https://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/status/476037527820713984
I'm so glad someone read it to Sarah, see the highlight dot on the lower corner of Hillary's writing, and it IS her writing?
DeleteThing is, Hillary never said never, just not now. So Hillary had a weak moment and felt sorry for MME Clueless, and MME Clueless saw her name and HAD to run with it!
I'm sure there were plenty of times Hillary had a good hearty laugh at the sheer stupidity that fell out of her mouth. "What do you read?" "Do you agree with the Bush Docrtine?" "Soldier of Fortune" and "Oh, sure, I get a bikini wax at least twice a month!"
Without control of the House the Democrats are passing very little even with the current control of the Senate. If the Republicans win the Senate in 2014 maybe the majority of voters will finally realize how bad the Republicans are and the Democrats will sweep in 2016.
ReplyDeleteThat's IF this country survives that long with the GOP in control.
Deletetalk to repugs about wallst fucking the veterans on housing
ReplyDeleteand see what theyve got to say, which is NOTHING.
theyve done NOTHING to help veterans re-establish
Permanent Housing after vets losing everything to wallst
since 06...NOTHING.
they think stuffing vets in tiny 8x10 motel 'rooms'
while NGOs get FREE monies to rehab these motel
rooms is enough for the veterans.
get them to talk veterans and see how fast the vanish
like the cockroaches they are.
Serves us Libs & Progressives right, after all look at all the voter fraud we committed which is why soooo many restricted Voter Laws has been put in place in those very same States where the red is huge, what is our problem with standing in line for 9+ hrs, including people in their 90's whose been voting for half a Century? So what we have to read a 7or 8 page voting instructions before voting in FL, I say if the nutwing conservatives of the repubs keep at it, they just might hand the elections to Dems, one can only hope
ReplyDeleteVictory this November
ReplyDeleteTaking control of the Senate
Taking back our country has begun
Impeach Obama
Anon 2:59 Karl Rove is that you?
DeleteIt's not your country, it belongs to patriotic Americans and we will never stop fighting against America-hating filth like you.
Delete2:59, the one without periods here on IM for 5+ years, must be a true Biden fan, as that's who will become president if you "impeach" our President. 2:59, you are lobbying for "President Biden." Is that what you want? (Did you even graduate from high school? I think not!)
DeleteTake your kochsucking ignorance back under the rock you oozed out from.
ReplyDeletewhy dont they cough up the 26,000$ to the vets in form
ReplyDeleteof VOUCHERS to BUY some PERMANENT HOUSING?
instead of giving this $ to more corp greedheads to waste.
as well VA FEE BASIS the med bills for the vets and let
them get some med care.
what kind of country is this that CANT TAKE CARE OF
about 20millions of its defender residents? WTF.
Most of whom dont want any help just the HOME they lost.
everyone gets some gov money but the vets who have NO
HOMES anymore. now theyre expected to do REHAB
for a home as tho rehab will make all these LOSSES
OK for the vet.
rehab will make all these losses all go away for you vet.
you dont get to own nuthing no more, no you just get REHAB
so we can spread all this money around the NGO world.
this is some crazy shit theyre doing to the vets.
The ads and the speeches haven't started yet, we all know the repubs will shoot themselves in the nads when they start campaigning. It happens every cycle. You can't fix stupid, and the stupid will show it's face.
ReplyDeleteHope so Hugh.
DeletePart of the problem for control of the Senate, as well as the right wing/left wing discourse in this country, is population distribution. Every state gets two senators, no matter its population. So California and New York, both strongly Democrat, have 57 million people together and are allotted 4 senators. Alaska and North Dakota (GOP states) with 1.4 million people, are also allotted 4 senators.
ReplyDeleteThe top 10 Republican states (by Gallup poll) have 21 million people. This is about half of California's current population. But California is only allowed 2 senators, and those 10 states control 20 senators.
The founding fathers balanced the Senate with the House, which reflects population. But they surely didn't envision gerrymandering of districts,which Republicans have used to great advantage in creating safe House seats.
So, Democrats need to (1) fight gerrymandering, which is hard to do, and (2) get their constituents to leave California or New York and move to states like Idaho, Wyoming or Montana, which is even harder to do!
If polls are based on phone surveys, then they are automatically skewed toward older folks who only have land lines. I doubt that they tap into the opinions of the smart phone generation.
ReplyDeleteWant to stop the takeover of the Senate?? If you live in a state where you have somewhere near a 50/50 chance, get involved on the ground. Put your money where your mouth is and donate.Volunteer to canvas, make phone calls, do visibility events. Learn about your candidate and go out and tell people why they would be best for your state. Then work to GOTV. If a competitive contest is not in your state, you can donate and make calls for the candidate from home.
ReplyDeleteWE CAN DO THIS PEOPLE if we decide to do whatever it takes.
It is really, really important for every Democrat to vote. If you don't want to go to the polls, then at least mail in your ballot!
ReplyDeleteYou have to first request an Absentee ballot - from the State you reside in as well as your community! I've been doing it for years because I'm handicapped.
DeleteThis is the scenario that maeks me laugh when cocktail party talk and punditry start talking about "mixed tickets" (see McCain, John and Lieberman, Joe). It's not EVER going to happen, stop trying to make it happen.
ReplyDeleteHOW TO VOTE TWICE:
ReplyDeleteDrag along a likeminded friend, who wasn't going to bother, even if its by the heels.
But make sure they are REGISTERED first! Republicans have been busily trying to cheat the system for the last few years, making it harder and harder to vote.
Democrats need to engage the repentant spirit of Lee Atwater and tear the Rethuglikan Party a new asshole.
ReplyDeleteNothing less will do.