In his latest forecast, statistics whiz Nate Silver gives Republicans a roughly 60 percent chance of winning control of the Senate in the November elections.
"Summing the probabilities of each race yields an estimate of 51 seats for Republicans. That makes them very slight favorites — perhaps somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-40 — to take control of the Senate, but also doesn't leave them much room for error," Silver wrote at FiveThirtyEight on Monday.
Midterms are where liberals historically drop the ball, but this time we simply cannot allow that to happen.
This election may be just as important as the presidential election, and we need to get our shit together and make damn sure we do not have a repeat of 2010 when the Tea Party helped send the dumbest politicians in this nation's history to Washington.
If the Republicans capture the Senate it is game over for President Obama, and you know they will not only obstruct everything he tries to do, but they will repeal Obamacare and more than likely decide that impeachment is not such a silly idea anymore either.
They have nothing to impeach him for and if they actually did roll back Obama Care they'd have rioting on the streets because millions already have the coverage and many for the first time.
ReplyDeleteDemocrats and Independents need to get the voters out for the November elections across the nation. Votes can outnumber the money that the Republicans will flood the states with (which they are already doing!) in states where there are primaries.
As I tried to EXPLAIN (and a troll diverts the convo) WE have to get out the vote and to Seniors and disabled who don't KNOW that POTUS does not make the laws we have to patiently EXPLAIN that Congress makes the laws and "Obama" doesn't care about "us" should be "Congress doesn't care about us b/c they keep cutting Medicare, Veterans beni's, etc, etc. "
ReplyDeleteGet out the Vote and for those that watch TV either explain to them or get them to listen to NPR.
And no TROLL I don't drink fucking redbull that shit is junk food!
What are you talking about? What TROLL??
Delete"If the Republicans capture the Senate it is game over for President Obama, and you know they will not only obstruct everything he tries to do, but they will repeal Obamacare and more than likely decide that impeachment is not such a silly idea anymore either."
ReplyDelete-------------------------------------------------
Yes, but even if both houses vote to repeal Obamacare, the president can and will veto the bill. It would be difficult, if not impossible, for the House and Senate to override the veto.
All indications are that a republican takeover of the Senate would still not give the republicans the 2/3 majority vote needed to convict on an impeachment.
All this being said, the real tragedy of a republican takeover of the senate will be the complete, total, destruction of governance of a country of over 300,000,000 people. Absolutely nothing will happen. Nothing. Including critical bills for infrastructure, funding, etc. Every single bill, even ones that sound positive, will have poison pills that will be very destructive if passed or signed into law.
So dozens of bills will be passed. Dozens. None of which will be signed into law. Because we are a nation of morons, the republicans will have no problem casting the democrats and the President as the obstructionists.
In short, all the President will be able to do is keep laws from being passed that will make things worse for the vast majority of Americans. Sadly, inaction itself can and will prove harmful and dangerous to many Americans as bills for infrastructure, jobs, etc. are not passed by the seditious republican congress and senate.
VOTE!
Yes vote!!!! I have always thought the repubs don't care about winning the presidency at all- they want the house and senate because contrary to the idiotic gibberish from skankenstein and her ilk-the president doesn't pass bills-the house/senate does.
DeleteThis is why the Koch brothers are so anxious to get their stupid but useful tea naggers elected!!!!!! Then the kochs can control what bills are passed!!!
Vote!!! Vote out the Koch tools!!!! Vote!!!!
All we need to do is both the easiest and hardest thing to do: vote and GOTV. And give money and time to GOTV. There are more of us than there are of them and humans who actually vote on election day can overpower the obscene amounts of money the Republicans and their overlords will throw at the races.
ReplyDeleteI've loved Silver since he was Poblano on Daily Kos, but this time? Fuck that shit, Nate. I don't care what the percentages are today. I care about the results and I will be voting and helping make sure others vote.
Nate can be right for today. There is no guarantee what he says today will hold up. His future predictions will change.
ReplyDeleteIn order to make Nate wrong the Democratic party is going to need to awaken its inner Lee Atwater. That will be a tall expectation. No one on the Democratic side can make that level of hate and divisiveness.They could do it in a positive way by just listing all the legislative ,moves the Rethug Party has made, NATIONWIDE!!!! Not just Nationally, but state by state. Just repeat again and again, ad nauseum. Show how their only concern is truly, for the 1%.
ReplyDeleteThe pendulum swingeth.
ReplyDeleteCheck out Huffington Post and see Rand Paul run like a bitch from a Dreamer...lol
ReplyDeleteSing it: "Rand on the Run, Rand on the Run…"
DeleteMidterm elections never provide the plethora of data as in presidential election years, so predictions cannot be as accurate. Nate forewarns his readers to this fact.
ReplyDeleteHe can only work with the arithmetic available.
Mitch McConnell Admits That Republicans Have No Chance Of Taking The Senate If He Loses
ReplyDeleteMcConnell was surprisingly blunt when speaking to the National Review Online, “The race will be a test of how strong anti-incumbent sentiment has grown. Neither candidate is coy about the stakes. Asked whether the GOP has any chance of retaking the Senate if he doesn’t win in Kentucky, McConnell is direct: “No,” he says.”
Everybody is aware of the stakes in the Kentucky Senate race. Right now, Republicans are a slight favorite to retake the Senate and hold a 51-49 majority. The entire prospect of Republicans gaining the majority comes down to the GOP’s ability to hold on to seats in Kentucky and Georgia. If the Republicans lose one of those seats, they will not retake the Senate. McConnell is the most vulnerable Republican Senate incumbent in this cycle.
http://www.politicususa.com/2014/08/05/mitch-mcconnell-admits-republicans-chance-senate-loses.html
Hey dude, you can stop the constant copy and pasting and linking to politicsusa, most of us see it on the way here thru palingates anyways.
DeleteYou are like IM's very own copy and paste foodstamp Pete of C4P.
Isn't palingates defunct?
DeleteHouse Republicans Could Doom The GOP To 2014 Defeat As Fears Of a Government Shutdown Swirl
ReplyDeleteRepublicans should be scared, because the far right members of the House would be happy to go home and campaign for reelection on a government shutdown. Most of them have never forgiven Boehner and the House leadership for ending the government shutdown last year. The shutdown last fall was caused by the fact that the Ted Cruz caucus in the House dug in their heels and refused to pass the Senate’s continuing resolution to fund the government. An absurd situation unfolded where House Republicans keep passing the same bill and sending it back to the Senate over and over again.
The shutdown only ended when the popularity of the Republican Party plummeted to record lows, and they were in jeopardy of losing the House. Far right House Republicans have been seething for a year, and they could see next month as their chance for payback.
http://www.politicususa.com/2014/08/05/house-republicans-doom-gop-2014-defeat-fears-government-shutdown-swirl.html
New Study: Republicans Lie More Than Democrats
ReplyDeletehttp://aattp.org/new-study-republicans-lie-more-than-democrats/
A leading media fact-checking organization rates Republicans as less trustworthy than Democrats, according to a new study by the Center for Media and Public Affairs (CMPA) at George Mason University. The study finds that PolitiFact.com has rated Republican claims as false three times as often as Democratic claims during President Obama’s second term. Republicans continue to get worse marks in recent weeks, despite controversies over Obama administration statements on Benghazi, the IRS and the AP.
According to CMPA President Dr Robert Lichter, “While Republicans see a credibility gap in the Obama administration, PolitiFact rates Republicans as the less credible party.”
http://www.cmpa.com/study-media-fact-checker-says-republicans-lie-more/
Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky Secretary of State and candidate for US Senate: Support her!
ReplyDelete70 to 80% of women are POed at the Hobby Lobby decision. Equal numbers are appalled at the lack of background checks. Now this immigration thing, which is totally heartless.
ReplyDeleteIf we get out the vote, we win.
I sometimes wonder about what will happen in the very conservative red states where women usually do what their husbands tell them to do. Depending on the machines being used, voting is supposed to be a very private, protected activity.
DeleteThese women may promise overbearing hubby that they will be good little girls and vote as instructed, but unless hubby supervises, how is he to know who the little lady actually voted for?
If you canvas door-to-door, women will sometimes tell you that's exactly what they're going to do if their husbands aren't in ear shot.
DeleteGOP In Serious Midterm Trouble As Most Americans Disapprove Of Their Own Representatives
ReplyDeleteIt looks like a large number of Americans are regretting the decisions they made in 2010 when the Tea Party wave gave Republicans the majority in the House. Since then, Congress has been the least-productive in history and obstructionism is the name of the game in Washington. House Republicans have only been interested in holding ‘repeal Obamacare’ votes, investigating fake scandals and finding a way to impeach Obama. Apparently, they can’t be bothered with anything else.
http://www.politicususa.com/2014/08/05/gop-midterm-trouble-americans-disapprove-representatives.html
The last time he mad a prediction for the Senate He was wrong. They picked up 3 seats. Let's hope he gets it wrong this time.
ReplyDeleteI have a great track record with political predictions, and even in print. Grimes will win in KY. You heard it here first. And we will not lose the Senate.
ReplyDeleteA lot of shit can hit the fan in three months.
ReplyDeleteAll we need is to mobilize a few more democrats (especially the young) and have a few Republicans stick their feet way down their gullets, for which they have a great propensity.
Let's pray that this time Nate is wrong. Very wrong.
We only need 2 seats to maintain some control. Even 1 with Biden breaking the ties.
I see what Nate is trying to do, give Carl Rove some fuel, but he's underestimating THIS mid term election and how dead serious Democrats are going to GOTV. And. beside, it's too early to predict squat about the GOP'S chances at anything. Ebola's more popular than the Senate. The best they can hope for is another twenty or so "repeal and replace Obamacare Votes on the Floor of Congress".
ReplyDeleteVOTE TWICE!
ReplyDelete(Drag along a likeminded friend who wasn't going to bother)