Lindsey knows what's up. |
It turns out that one of the Grand Old Party’s biggest—and least discussed—challenges going into 2016 is lying in plain sight, written right into the party’s own nickname. The Republican Party voter is old—and getting older, and as the adage goes, there are two certainties in life: Death and taxes. Right now, both are enemies of the GOP and they might want to worry more about the former than the latter.
There’s been much written about how millennials are becoming a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, but there’s been much less attention paid to one of the biggest get-out-the-vote challenges for the Republican Party heading into the next presidential election: Hundreds of thousands of their traditional core supporters won’t be able to turn out to vote at all.
The party’s core is dying off by the day.
Since it appears that no political data geek keeps track of voters who die between elections, I took it upon myself to do some basic math. And that quick back-of-the-napkin math shows that the trend could have a real effect in certain states, and make a battleground states like Florida and Ohio even harder for the Republican Party to capture.
By combining presidential election exit polls with mortality rates per age group from the U.S. Census Bureau, I calculated that, of the 61 million who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012, about 2.75 million will be dead by the 2016 election. President Barack Obama’s voters, of course, will have died too—about 2.3 million of the 66 million who voted for the president won’t make it to 2016 either. That leaves a big gap in between, a difference of roughly 453,000 in favor of the Democrats.
Here is the methodology, using one age group as an example: According to exit polls, 5,488,091 voters aged 60 to 64 years old supported Romney in 2012. The mortality rate for that age group is 1,047.3 deaths per 100,000, which means that 57,475 of those voters died by the end of 2013. Multiply that number by four, and you get 229,900 Romney voters aged 60-to-64 who will be deceased by Election Day 2016. Doing the same calculation across the range of demographic slices pulled from exit polls and census numbers allows one to calculate the total voter deaths. It’s a rough calculation, to be sure, and there are perhaps ways to move the numbers a few thousand this way or that, but by and large, this methodology at least establishes the rough scale of the problem for the Republicans—a problem measured in the mid-hundreds of thousands of lost voters by November 2016.
I realize that it's a little macabre. But then again it is also quite uplifting news for those of us who, unlike Marco Rubio, do not want the same tired old ideas and prejudices of the "good old days" reinforced by legislation pushed through the Congress by old men constantly reelected by even older men.
The future is bright, and not so sadly many of the Republican base will not live long enough to see it.
Nor get the chance to yell at it and tell it to get the hell off their lawn.
Thanks, Gryph, for this particular post. Reality bites.
ReplyDeletedowl
O/T SP post about the wedding not taking place is vague. Is it cancelled for good or postponed? They purposefully do that, I assume so they can pretend for awhile that it was postponed. If you look at Dakota's next FB post, it shows him alone.
ReplyDeleteI think it was cancelled and then there was backpedalling as usual in anything involving the Palins. Sarah Palin is upset about the media attention. How stupid not to see it coming! When you conduct s relationship on social media - the instagrams, the tweets, the face booking - the whole world is suddenly in your living room. What did they expect when the great lovers uttered every word for the media to see? When Chelsea Clinton became engaged Bristol suddenly go engaged to Levi. But Chelsea Clinton's engagement was not played out on the internet. How many times did Dakota refer to the "amazing woman"? Maybe Sarah got upset when she realized that he was referring to Bristol and not to her. In the end, no one really cares. But Bristol and her mother should learn that you do not conduct personal business via instagram, Facebook or twitter.
DeleteBeaglemom
Even if I'm dead by next election, I can die secure of having borne three Democratic voters to take my place.
ReplyDeleteMy dream, is Lindsey dressed as Mrs. Doubtfire when he makes his formal announcement to run.
ReplyDeleteBut...but... he only dresses that way in secret or when John is spending the evening.
DeleteJust another "Toe Tapper" in a public men's room....
DeleteNothing to see here folks...
Keep Moving...
Ms. Lindsay does not realize that women got the vote and that African Americans can also vote, unless they live in some states. The GOP's appeal is waning. Why do they have to appeal to people's anger and meanness? Why not offer real solutions to real problems so that their appeal can broaden? It's the fault of the party leadership, including Ms. Lindsay.
ReplyDeleteBeaglemom
Uh. You do realize that quote of Grahams was tongue in cheek, no? That was his point.
Delete"The future is bright ..."
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Not unless we can turn around the trend to suppress and restrict voting. To survive, we have to turn this philosophy on its head. Not only shouldn't voting be restricted and suppressed, we should be doing everything we can to encourage voting and make it more convenient for citizens.
We also need to fight for accountability and tamper-proof voting methods.
When elections can't be won honestly, republicans have shown they will cheat and disenfranchise everyone they can.
Bingo.
DeleteMs. Lindsey is in this for the $$$, just like most of the others. If they thought they REALLY were in the running for the office, they would Ted Nugent all over themselves. Too much work involved.
ReplyDeleteSo when are the Koch boys going to buy the farm? They are WAY older than the demographics cited.
ReplyDeleteThe Republicans are generating plenty of angry white guys - their problem is that we're moderates and liberals who are sick and tired of the Republican's shit.
ReplyDeleteI've been saying this for years.
ReplyDeleteI also said it of Rush Limbaugh's listeners. He's not attracting the young and as the old die off, so go his listeners. Eventually his program won't generate enough ratings to warrant sponsorship. Unless you are a funeral home.
Makes sense. Now the GOP has to figure out how to clone angry old white men, cause it takes years to raise one from infancy. One good thing about it is, the Democrats attract diversity and aren't afraid of change. The GOP? What have they got? Nothing more unattractive in any way is a crazy old white man whose rich as hell and forgot where he came from and whom he stepped on to get that rich.
ReplyDeleteThe gap is actually bigger, because by 2016, there will be more 18 year old voters, a majority of whom will vote Dem.
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