I am going to tell you, right now, what the political landscape of the future looks like so you don’t waste your time over the next year listening to a parade of pundits or watching those ridiculous primary debates. The 2016 election is going to come down to Hillary vs. Jeb, of course. Dynasty against dynasty. The campaign that would horrify our Founding Fathers and will bore everyone to tears.
How will this happen?
That Hillary will coast I doubt surprises you. Sure, has her B-list challengers stoking the populist embers in the Democratic base. Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley are in. Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb may soon follow suit. Each may put up a good fight, raise some decent money and earn a moment in the sun. Collectively, they will force Hillary to finesse sticky issues that pit the Democratic Party’s working class against its donor class. But they won’t fundamentally alter the trajectory of the race. After all, you don’t really think she is going to make herself a fat target and campaign from inside the Goldman Sachs boardroom do you?
The author of this piece, Bill Scher then goes on to knock down each political "scandal" and argument that is used to suggest that Hillary is vulnerable in the primaries.
Simply put she's not.
Next up, Jeb Bush:
You are probably more shocked that Jeb will have it so easy. He starts off as such a weak frontrunner. He’s mired in a five-way tie for first place nationally, at a piddling 10 percent, in the most recent Quinnipiac Republican primary poll. He’s in a virtual four-way tie in New Hampshire. He doesn’t even amount to the frontrunner in Iowa. And he will face a 2016 conservative field at least a step up from the 2012 clown show. Is there no one who could pick up a head of steam and best Bush mano-a-mano?
Pundits have concocted pat scenarios in which an insurgent could dethrone the scion. All Ted Cruz has to do is unite the Tea Party with the social conservatives. All Marco Rubio had to do is unite the Tea Party with the Establishment. All Rand Paul had to do is attract libertarians who haven’t been Republican activists. Heck, earlier this year, yours truly floated that all Scott Walker has to do is unite the conservative opinion leaders with the conservative grassroots to leap ahead of Bush.
None of that will happen. The Republican Party is just too splintered and too fractionalized. And any conservative consolidation project is severely hampered by the bottomless pit of Republican candidates. Last week we were blessed with Rick Santorum and George Pataki. Lindsey Graham and Rick Perry are expected to jump in this week. (Actually Lindsey Graham just made it official this morning.)I can’t believe I’m saying this out loud, but it really looks like Donald Trump won’t be far behind.
Now I know that a LOT of you are going to cover your ears and fire up the old cognitive dissonance, but at the end of the day I am sure that most of you are going to have to admit that this guy is right.
And as you probably remember I have been saying essentially the same thing for months now myself.
Look before you start sharpening your knives and prepare to fillet me over this, you should know that if I had a magic lamp I would rub the crap out of it for a Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders ticket to face off against a Lindsey Graham/Ted Cruz GOP ticket. But I've looked, and I don't seem to have a magic lamp.
So whether you like it or not, and I am positive that many of you don't, this is how things are going to play out this election cycle.
If I am wrong about this I officially invite you right now to come back to this blog and rip me to shreds. I will actually create a post just for that purpose, I promise.
However unless something truly earth shattering happens between now and November 2016, and by earth shattering I mean sudden death or or explosive scandal that cannot be ignored, then yes our next President will either be Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush.
And before anybody starts bitching about dynasties, and corporate whores, and politics as usual, remember this:
Four Supreme Court justices are over the age of 70: Stephen Breyer is 76, Anthony Kennedy is 78, Antonin Scalia is 79, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a pancreatic cancer survivor, is 82.
Then hitch up your big boy (or girl.) pants, unclench your angry jaw, and recognize that this is a very important election and you simply do NOT get to stay at home and pout instead of doing your civic duty.
Hold your nose if you have to, but vote like your country is depending on you.
Because it is.
I cant stand Hillary Rotten Clinton
ReplyDeleteWould never vote for her
Looks like 3rd party for me.
Exactly. I never hold my nose when I vote. And I always vote.
DeleteMaybe Ralph Nader will run and you can vote for him.
DeleteThat would be a vote for Jeb.
DeleteOh, two votes.
Wrong mlaiuppa. You are a fool.
DeleteI am a lifelong dyed-in-the wool Democrat, and I don't like Hillary. I stopped liking her when she was Senator Clinton and constantly voted in favor of whatever W Bush wanted. She did not act like a Democrat.
DeleteAlso I did not like that scorched earth campaign she ran against a fellow Democrat, then-Senator Obama in 2008.
mlaiuppa3:47 PM
DeleteThat would be a vote for Jeb.
Oh, two votes.
****************************************
Jeb is NOT a shoo-in. He is so low in the popularity polls.
If you can't get on board with holding your nose as you vote, get ready for a SCOTUS filled with Scalias and Alitos. That, my friends, would be a scary fucking world. A vote for a 3rd party in a nationwide election is a vote for Bush III. You might not like it, but it's the truth.
DeleteWhen it's one Republican against one Democrat, registered Republicans will still vote for the Republican no matter how repulsive it is. Democrats on the other hand will vote third party or stay home as some sort of spite your face protest.
DeleteI give you the campaigns of Nader or Perot as examples.
If you vote third party or opt out, it is as good as giving Jeb or whoever the Republican candidate two more votes.
How will you feel then when a Republican takes the White House in 2016 and starts rolling back everything Obama has accomplished?
Rand Paul makes me want to vomit. Hillary/O"Malley 2016
ReplyDeleteYou may be correct in your prediction, but I am old enough to remember that George HW Bush was invincible in the '92 election (thank you Bill Clinton!) As well as the '88 election, when HW was fighting the "wimp factor". Regardless of the Rep nominee, I just hope Hillary annihilates them.
ReplyDeleteSo then you are also old enough to remember Hillary being invincible for the 08 Dem nomination.
DeleteI didn't phrase my post very well. I meant to convey that HW was considered unelectable in 1988 yet considered to be a shoe in for 1992.
DeleteHe was a shoe in until the check out scanner incident, then every one saw how fucking stupid he was. I seriously doubt Hillary Clinton will make such a bone headed, rich asshole move. After all she came from middle class stock, not some rich guy's nursery.
Deleteomg, the gop, and bush. omg, they are dumb. they do not make any decisions all the people around them make them, they are puppets the bushs'. While Bill and HIllary made decisions based on data. No way bush did or the new bush will. please do your civic duty as stated and vote.
ReplyDeleteNO DAMNED DYNASTIES!!!
ReplyDeleteI WILL bitch, and bitch again. The only way we'll have our voices heard is to keep raising them. If we are quiet and moan that nothing will change, that the fix is in, we will fulfill our own self-defeating prophecy.
And THAT is what the political pundits want us to believe. After all, who pays them to produce polling data? Hilary still owes her last forecaster-profit (sorry, prophet) almost a million dollars, even after various fundraisers to help her reduce her vender debts.
There is no way that Bernie Sanders is going to pay these shysters and coat-hangers millions of dollars to consult their augeries and write speeches carefully tailored to say nothing that will offend the moneyed class. I also suspect that he pays his debts.
“Objects in your rearview mirror are closer than they appear.”
"That was what Kurt Meyer, the Democratic Party chairman for Worth County, Iowa, reportedly told Hillary Clinton’s political director after more people showed up to Bernie Sanders’s event in the small town of Kensett on Saturday night than the town’s overall population. Earlier in the week, Sanders drew 700 people to a rally in Davenport. As the New York Times noted yesterday, that’s the largest rally any candidate has held in the state so far this election cycle, and puts Marin O’Malley’s 50-person event in the same town on Saturday to shame."
And:
"Since announcing his candidacy, Sanders has shown signs of life in what was originally thought to be a one-horse race for the Democratic nomination. A recent Quinnipiac poll had him pulling fifteen percent of the Democratic electorate. For perspective, that’s higher than any candidate earns in RealClearPolitics’s polling average for the Republican nomination (Jeb Bush is in the lead with 14.8% of the vote)."
http://americablog.com/2015/06/bernie-sanders-is-being-taken-seriously-in-and-out-of-iowa.html
If I could bold that, I would. FIFTEEN PERCENT. Without leaving his duties as a Senator to fund-raise, fund-raise, fund-raise. Without pandering to Wall Street. Or the religious fundamental extremists.
People need a voice. And, right now, Bernie Sanders is the only candidate who is representing US.
This country has had dynasties before and suvived.
DeleteAdams.
Roosevelt.
I would rather have a second Clinton than a third Bush.
Especially if you take into account I.Q. and experience.
I think they've put Sanders up so that Hillary Clinton has someone across the table from her raising points of interest, suggesting questions of her - someone to debate, etc. All the while knowing full well he'll never beat her.
DeletePersonally think it is all smoke and guns!
Did anyone think early on that Barack Obama would get the nomination? Not really. Anything could happen over the next year. I will vote for Hillary, if she is nominated, or whoever the Democrat is, because I do not want a Republican president to destroy our country.
ReplyDeleteExactly.
DeleteI will vote for any Democrat on the ballot just to keep the White House out of the hands of Republicans.
That said, if Bernie's name is on my primary ballot, I'll vote for him.
I would for Bernie to get the nomination.
DeleteExcept Bernie would never win against whoever the Republicans put up. No matter what the polls show.
DeleteWhen you're right, Gryphen, you're right. My glands cry for O'Malley, my brain cries for Sanders, but my common sense knows it's Hills, and that's that.
ReplyDeleteBesides, we know that Hillary will listen to counsel from her husband (as he used to listen to her), and Jeb has made clear he'll listen to policy ideas from his imbecile brother. Thus, for thinking people it's little gamble: do we want to chance being left in the robust state after 8 years of her husband, or the decimated condition following 8 years of his brother?
Not so fast! Lots of screeching around unforeseen corners yet to come.
ReplyDeleteI say Bernie Sanders and Eliz Warren! Yessssssssssssssssss!
'''I say Bernie Sanders and Eliz Warren! Yessssssssssssssssss!'''
DeleteYES!!!!!!!!!! I agree with you.
" Dynasty against dynasty. The campaign that would horrify our Founding Fathers."
ReplyDeleteFF like John Adams and his son, John Quincy Adams?
Franklin Roosevelt (D) and cousin Theodore Roosevelt (R,BM).
DeleteJeb Bush? He's so far down in so many of the polls. How can he be the one the Republicans will pick for the primary? Don't they know he'll lose?
ReplyDeleteGuess I don't know how the system works! But, do think you AT LEAST have to have a viable candidate.
Never discount the importance of name recognition.
DeleteSimply put there are a whole lot of people who will come to the polls with only a vague idea of who is running and why. A name they know will often be the deciding factor.
And that is not even taking into consideration the money. Money to buy ads, money to attract campaign staff, money to canvas neighborhoods, money for oppositional research, Jeb and Hillary are going to spend an ungodly amount of money this campaign season. And they are the only two who can match that level of spending.
Who had heard of Barack Who before 2007 -- he had heart and the money came... look what Bernie Sanders has done just a few weeks in. 100,000 volunteers, 175 million pledged. Plus, I don't think Hillary is well enough to last the course.
DeleteBut, you people above, not to vote is to give the country to Regressives. Do you really want that?
It's early. November 2016? Gore v. Haley you heard it here first. This time Al wants it, and prevails. For the sake of a future.
ReplyDeleteIn that case, I'd want Gore to be VP to Hillary and then take the office after her two terms.
DeleteHowever, I think Gore has too much baggage to be on the ticket now or in the future. Same with Kerry.
I was convinced like you that that was going to be the end game, even though I have wanted Bernie before he announced. Now I am not so sure about the certainty of Hillary. Bernie is resonating with the masses in a big way. He is going to give her a run for her money. She has the money, Jebbie has the money but Bernie has something neither one of them have, the ability to connect with the average American. I think most Americans have had enough with the two party system. Bernie offers something for everyone and certainly is not running away from answering questions.
ReplyDeleteThe idea that the American people can get active and involved is why Republicans are terrified of Bernie Sanders. To the Koch brothers, conservative billionaires, corporations, and Republicans, Bernie Sanders is dangerous. Imagine what would happen if millions of people acted on what Sen. Sanders was suggesting. If one million young people, or millions of people who are buried under student loan debt marched on Washington and continued to march for days and weeks and months, they could change this country.
Deletehttp://www.politicususa.com/2015/06/01/bernie-sanders-calls-millions-young-americans-march-dc-boehner-mcconnell.html
Slightly Off Topic....I read on some news sites yesterday that Jeb was defending the actions of his brother, George, and that the problems during his reign of terror were the result of the Republican Congress, not George.
ReplyDeleteOf course, the comments were ripping Jeb to shreds and re-hashing all the horrible events and the ineptness of his presidency.
Then I remembered....Cindy Sheehan. Nobody in the comments mentioned her, the mother of Casey, who died in Iraq. She camped outside his Crawford, TX ranch in the heat of August while George took a 5 WEEK VACATION! And GW Bush would not come out and speak with her. The press showed up, the crowds grew, and still he would not speak to her. He drove by her many times at the entrance to his ranch, but would not talk to her.
Can you imagine if President Obama did this????
Those Bush years were the worst years of our country in my lifetime. I have nightmares about another Bush in the White House. Please vote for whomever the Dem candidate is.
I never forgot Casey's mom. That lady had the tenacity to ask politely by phone, letter, any media that would listen. And GWBush was shaking in his boots. I recall her camping down the road, we're talking a few miles, not on his front lawn, and he had his motorcade do a U turn and went miles out of his way to avoid her. All she wanted was an explanation. If I recall correctly, there was a question as to his death being friendly fire, ied, direct combat etc. etc. She deserved an answer.
DeleteAs much as I despised the man, he was MY President, but after seeing his cowardice and knowing he got out of serving because, well, money, his name, his daddy just chapped my butt. Any mother deserves an answer.
I'm in the mid-west. "Socialist" is used to deride any political thing the speaker wishes to eliminate from the discussion. It is the lowest of the low. Bernie might get some hoopla going in Iowa, but former socialist mayor of Burlington, VT is no go for most people here.
ReplyDeleteHe is a DEMOCRATIC socialist.
DeleteNot the same thing.
And he's happy to explain it to anyone that asks.
I really wish the pundit class would stop the false equivalency of a Hillary and Jeb "dynasty v. dynasty" battle. Yes, in the strictest sense of the term, they are both members of political dynasties. The problem with putting them on level ground where that's concerned is that Hillary is part of a self-made "dynasty" consisting of just the partnership of her and her husband. She worked to get where she is.
ReplyDeleteJeb, on the other hand, is a member of a bloodline dynasty that began with the power of his great-grandfather robber baron Samuel Bush in the late 1800s. He didn't have to do a goddamn thing to get where he is and THAT is what would make the Founding Fathers sick. It should make us all sick.
Thank you!
DeleteWow, sorry that you've become so cynical, Gryphen. Anything is possible.
ReplyDelete...If two of the Sanders ideas were adopted, they would transform the Democratic debates. The idea of inter-party debates is bound to turn some people off. These same people probably also hate interleague play in Major League Baseball, but the idea of Democratic candidates being able to challenge the unpopular positions that the Republican Party has adopted is appealing.
ReplyDeleteImagine an election where Democratic debates took place in Texas and Utah, and select Republicans were invited to participate. Hillary Clinton could debate Marco Rubio, and union buster Scott Walker would be challenged by Bernie Sanders. Having these candidates on the same stage would merge partisan political discourse in a virtually previously unseen way.
Sen. Sanders was talking about extending the reach of the Democratic Party in all 50 states. It is an amazing idea, and one that the Democrats should strongly consider before they agree to another round of primary debates.
http://www.politicususa.com/2015/06/01/bernie-sanders-unveils-3-amazing-ideas-improve-democratic-presidential-debates.html
Gryphen, I think you have it right.
ReplyDeleteOn a related topic, the Bush campaign is trying out an innovative crowd sourced method of writing speeches and, for obvious reasons, most of the contributions are concession speeches.
So far the best ideas include:
1)Jeb takes the podium and attempts to solve a Rubik's Cube while whistling the theme from Bonanza wearing a tshirt that reads "Fuck you, America. I didnt want the job anyway" left over from the failed Rmoney campaigns of 2008, 2012 and January 2015.
2) Jeb takes the podium and reads selected passages from his brother's memoir entitled My Pet Goat.
3) Jeb takes the podium and says "Congratulations, Hillary, you ignorant slut. I'm going to Disneyland!
Bad, I know. But we have more than a year to come up with something better.
Sanders and O'Malley are looking good to me right now.
ReplyDeleteAlso I wish Elizabeth Warren would run, I would like to see her as the first woman president.
Hillary is NOT a shoo-in. Remember 2008?
UGH I had my hopes up for Omalley but forgot his horrid record in MD
ReplyDeleteIf I understand the history correctly, in the late 1990s, the President was impeached for lying about a sexual affair by a House of Representatives led by a man who was also then hiding a sexual affair, who was supposed to be replaced by another Congressman who stepped down when forced to reveal that he too was having a sexual affair, which led to the election of a new Speaker of the House who now has been indicted for lying about payments covering up his sexual contact with a boy.
ReplyDeleteYikes.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/05/29/if-i-understand-the-history-correctly/
If I recall correctly they attempted to impeach the President but the vote came up short so they failed.
DeleteNo more Clintons; no more Bushes.
ReplyDelete