Showing posts with label inevitable. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inevitable. Show all posts

Sunday, August 30, 2015

Jeb Bush loses three top fundraisers as poll numbers plummet.

Courtesy of Politico: 

Three top Jeb Bush fundraisers abruptly parted ways with his presidential campaign on Friday, amid internal personality conflicts and questions about the strength of his candidacy, POLITICO has learned. 

There are different versions of what transpired. The Florida-based fundraising consultants — Kris Money, Trey McCarley, and Debbie Aleksander — have said that they voluntarily quit the campaign and were still working with Bush's super PAC, Right to Rise Super PAC. Others said the three, who worked under the same contract, were let go because they were no longer needed for the current phase of the campaign. 

None of the three responded to requests for comment. Bush spokesman Tim Miller would only say that “Governor Bush has the widest and deepest fundraising operation of any candidate in the field. Ann Herberger — a longtime aide with more than two decades of experience in state and national politics — will continue to lead the operation in Florida with our team in Miami.” 

The departures came at a time of uncertainty for Bush. While he has had massive success raising money for his Super PAC, he is overseeing an official campaign that has many more staffers but far less money. Earlier this week, the New York Times revealed that it had taken steps to rein in some of its spending and had gone so far as to cut some employee salaries. And POLITICO reported one Bush fundraiser expressed concerns about the slowing pace of the campaign’s fundraising after Bush’s shaky debate performance. 

For the record I in no way think that Jeb bush is going to have any difficulty raising money. In fact that campaign is already reaching out for replacements, and will assuredly find them.

However I do think that it is a sign that Jebbie is just not the candidate that Republican establishment had hoped for.

Not only is he a gaffe machine that makes Joe Biden seems smooth by comparison, but his poll numbers now have him trailing, not only Donald Trump, but also Carson, Walker, and Ted Cruz.

And it seems that every time Bush tries to rise above the pack, he jams his foot so far down his own throat that even W. is shaking his head in disbelief.

At this point not only is Jeb's inevitability in question. So is his viability.

Monday, June 01, 2015

Restating the obvious, yes it's going to be Hillary Clinton vs Jeb Bush in 2016.

Courtesy of Politico: 

I am going to tell you, right now, what the political landscape of the future looks like so you don’t waste your time over the next year listening to a parade of pundits or watching those ridiculous primary debates. The 2016 election is going to come down to Hillary vs. Jeb, of course. Dynasty against dynasty. The campaign that would horrify our Founding Fathers and will bore everyone to tears. 

How will this happen? 

That Hillary will coast I doubt surprises you. Sure, has her B-list challengers stoking the populist embers in the Democratic base. Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley are in. Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb may soon follow suit. Each may put up a good fight, raise some decent money and earn a moment in the sun. Collectively, they will force Hillary to finesse sticky issues that pit the Democratic Party’s working class against its donor class. But they won’t fundamentally alter the trajectory of the race. After all, you don’t really think she is going to make herself a fat target and campaign from inside the Goldman Sachs boardroom do you? 

The author of this piece, Bill Scher then goes on to knock down each political "scandal" and argument that is used to suggest that Hillary is vulnerable in the primaries.

Simply put she's not.

Next up, Jeb Bush: 

You are probably more shocked that Jeb will have it so easy. He starts off as such a weak frontrunner. He’s mired in a five-way tie for first place nationally, at a piddling 10 percent, in the most recent Quinnipiac Republican primary poll. He’s in a virtual four-way tie in New Hampshire. He doesn’t even amount to the frontrunner in Iowa. And he will face a 2016 conservative field at least a step up from the 2012 clown show. Is there no one who could pick up a head of steam and best Bush mano-a-mano? 

Pundits have concocted pat scenarios in which an insurgent could dethrone the scion. All Ted Cruz has to do is unite the Tea Party with the social conservatives. All Marco Rubio had to do is unite the Tea Party with the Establishment. All Rand Paul had to do is attract libertarians who haven’t been Republican activists. Heck, earlier this year, yours truly floated that all Scott Walker has to do is unite the conservative opinion leaders with the conservative grassroots to leap ahead of Bush. 

None of that will happen. The Republican Party is just too splintered and too fractionalized. And any conservative consolidation project is severely hampered by the bottomless pit of Republican candidates. Last week we were blessed with Rick Santorum and George Pataki. Lindsey Graham and Rick Perry are expected to jump in this week. (Actually Lindsey Graham just made it official this morning.)I can’t believe I’m saying this out loud, but it really looks like Donald Trump won’t be far behind.

Now I know that a LOT of you are going to cover your ears and fire up the old cognitive dissonance, but at the end of the day I am sure that most of you are going to have to admit that this guy is right.

And as you probably remember I have been saying essentially the same thing for months now myself.

Look before you start sharpening your knives and prepare to fillet me over this, you should know that if I had a magic lamp I would rub the crap out of it for a Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders ticket to face off against a Lindsey Graham/Ted Cruz GOP ticket. But I've looked, and I don't seem to have a magic lamp.

So whether you like it or not, and I am positive that many of you don't, this is how things are going to play out this election cycle.

If I am wrong about this I officially invite you right now to come back to this blog and rip me to shreds. I will actually create a post just for that purpose, I promise.

However unless something truly earth shattering happens between now and November 2016, and by earth shattering I mean sudden death or or explosive scandal that cannot be ignored, then yes our next President will either be Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush.

And before anybody starts bitching about dynasties, and corporate whores, and politics as usual, remember this:

Four Supreme Court justices are over the age of 70: Stephen Breyer is 76, Anthony Kennedy is 78, Antonin Scalia is 79, and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a pancreatic cancer survivor, is 82.

Then hitch up your big boy (or girl.) pants, unclench your angry jaw, and recognize that this is a very important election and you simply do NOT get to stay at home and pout instead of doing your civic duty.

Hold your nose if you have to, but vote like your country is depending on you. 

Because it is.