Friday, March 18, 2016

Analysis shows that with either Trump or Cruz at the top of the GOP ticket it moves 10 House races in the Dems favor.

Courtesy of TPM:

The Republican Party's stranglehold on the House of Representatives may be crumbling, according to a new analysis by the Cook Political Report. 

While the GOP has its largest House majority in more than eight decades, Donald Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) at the top of the ticket could seriously jeopardize the majority that has been built. 

In its analysis of congressional races, the Cook Political Report moved 10 races Friday closer to Dem favor with the assumption that Cruz or Trump could have a major affect on down-ballot races from Virginia to California. 

In a blog post Friday, analyst David Wasserman wrote "Democrats would need to pick up 30 seats, a daunting challenge given the GOP's immense redistricting advantage and the vaporization of swing districts. But all cycle, Democrats have daydreamed about Republicans nominating an extremely polarizing presidential candidate, and suddenly it's almost certain they will get their wish."

I actually think that might be conservative, and if we end up with a huge fight at the Republican convention, or if Donald Trump goes third party, than all bets are off and a Democratic majority in both the Senate AND the House becomes a real possibility.

23 comments:

  1. Anonymous4:43 PM

    Need a lot more than 10 to get majority.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous8:55 PM

      O/T:

      What's the scuttlebutt out there: did Dakota get to see his daughter, or was she 'too sick'?

      Delete
  2. Anonymous4:56 PM

    Nothing moves Dem unless Dems get out to vote. We can't take it for granted a Dem will win over any of their crazy offerings.

    Mildred

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous5:25 PM

    OT-0http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/18/teen-rape-case-rocks-sidwell-friends-obama-kids-school.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous5:44 PM

      ??????? Is Piper enrolled there?

      Delete
  4. Anonymous5:41 PM

    That's now. Wait until November, after a few months of either of these two as nominee. There's a very long way to ago and they just get worse.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous5:48 PM

    OT-http://www.rawstory.com/2016/03/donald-trump-lashes-out-at-megyn-kelly-boycott-her-show-because-she-is-sick/

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anonymous5:50 PM

    Now Romney has filed FEC to enter? Is that was the super secret "Dump Trump" meeting of the bigwigs was about? Lovely....here comes Ann and us "little people!"

    Fire up the machine, Gryph, unbuttered is next to no calories but tastes like crap. :)

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anonymous5:51 PM

    keep dreaming dude.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous6:38 PM

    Noted Donald Trump supporter Sara(h) Palin is quoted by TMZ as "joking" about her husband now being the Bionic Man. The description of his injuries makes even Todd a sympathetic character. He's lucky to be alive.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous6:55 PM

      Sympathetic? God gets back to you, $arah, over and over and over.....

      Delete
    2. Anonymous7:42 PM

      One would think that her God is telling her to stay home, but she'll never get it because $arah was always about $arah and no one else.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous8:27 PM

      She's going to have to stay home, because she can't afford a sitter for Piper, a care-giver for Trig, and the ups and downs of Willow and Bristol and Track -- all on her own. Whatever Todd's been contributing lately may not have been much, but he was a presence in Trig's life.
      Sarah isn't interested in her family or keeping them together. The future looks very poor for that whole sorry bunch.

      Delete
    4. Anita Winecooler5:29 PM

      I'm sorry, but her joking about her husband's injuries just shows the depth of commitment and love in that marriage. My husband had a motorcycle accident years ago, to this day the only thing I don't remember is how I got to the hospital so quickly. This was before cell phones and GPS, we're in Pennsylvania and his accident happened in Indiana. If Todd's half as injured as has been reported, he'd better have divorce papers with wet ink waiting for her signature.

      Delete
  9. Anonymous6:45 PM

    Sara Pees in a Pod-dRumpf. 2008 warned us of this nightmare. Do some research. Find something!
    http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20080923_in_defense_of_elitism

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous7:24 PM

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/donald-trump-mitt-romney-mormon-220988

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anonymous7:30 PM

    This has been planned for a very long time.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous9:10 PM

    I mailed in my AZ Democratic donation. Hoping that McCain loses his seat!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anonymous3:34 AM

    I would hope that any Republicans candidate for president would move all Congressional races to the Democratic column.
    Beaglemom

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anonymous2:45 PM

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/mark-levin-kasich-throwing-a-turd-in-the-swimming-pool-to-thwart-cruz/article/2586248

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anita Winecooler5:32 PM

    The way the clowncar self imploded so early, nothing would surprise me except a low Democratic turnout. We're not quitters, get out and get out the vote. SCOTUS and a lot of other issues stand in the balance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think the Democrats should be just as afraid as the Republicans. The way Bernie is being treated may just alienate his supporters to staying home rather than vote for Hillary. The Dem leadership should not assume that Bernie's supporters will simply vote for Hillary. That is not a sure thing. If they piss off enough people (like dissing Bernie and putting an unqualified nobody on the ticket as VP) they may find that the GOP with Trump on the ticket holds tighter than the Democratic voters.

      You know what they say about counting chickens. You end up with egg on your face.

      And we end up with Herr Fuhrer in the White House.

      Delete

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