Thursday, November 17, 2016

Exit polls show that late voters broke strongly for Donald Trump, Gee what happened around that time which might have had an impact?

Courtesy of the Washington Post:  

The polls were wrong, and now Donald Trump is the president-elect of the United States. Everyone knows this. 

Except that's not the whole picture. Some of the polls were wrong to a degree, yes, but there was also something at work in the final days of the election: People who decided late broke strongly for Donald Trump in the states that mattered, according to exit polls. And without this apparent late surge, Hillary Clinton would be our president-elect — not Trump. 

In fact, if you look at the four closest states where Clinton lost — or, in the case of Michigan, where she's expected to lose — exit polls show late-deciding voters in each of them went strongly for Trump in the final days. In Florida and Pennsylvania, late-deciders favored Trump by 17 points. In Michigan, they went for Trump by 11 points. In Wisconsin, they broke for Trump by a whopping 29 points, 59-30.

And these weren't small groups of voters. The number of undecided and third-party-supporting voters who were still free agents in the final week was as many as 1 in 8 voters nationally -- an uncharacteristically high number for the eve of an election.

1 in 8 undecided voters would suggest that a large number of these folks were not terribly thrilled with either candidate, but what could have caused them to break so hard in Trump's favor?

Gee I wonder: 

The FBI on Friday dropped a bombshell on Hillary Clinton’s campaign less than two weeks before Election Day, announcing that it is reviewing new evidence in its investigation into her use of a private email server as secretary of state. 

 In a letter to several congressional committee chairmen, FBI Director James Comey wrote that, “In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent to this investigation.” 

Comey said he was briefed on those emails on Thursday and that he “agreed that the FBI should take appropriate investigative steps designed to allow investigators to review these emails to determine whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their importance to our investigation.” 

Seven days later, just two days before the election, Comey essentially said "Never mind, nothing to see here."

But it was too late.

A fact confirmed by Trump's campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, in responding to a question about an indictment predicted by Fox News based on the Comey letter, which they then had to walk back: 

“Well, the damage is done to Hillary Clinton,” Conway replied. “No matter how it's being termed the voters are hearing it for what it is—a culture of corruption.”

Except there was no "culture of corruption," nor any criminality, and not a great deal of untruthfulness. 

All of those were just the accusations which the conservatives made up for Hillary Clinton and which numerous Republican investigations, Russian hacking, and Wikileaks document dumps, helped make stick.

But it would never have worked without a complicit corporate media and a barely attentive pool of voters.

As I said in my first post of the day, we can no longer refer to the American people as smart.

60 comments:

  1. Anonymous2:12 PM

    Smart? We're the laughing stock of the world for allowing it to happen.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Anonymous3:08 PM

      And I hope that leads to all sorts of consequences, such as a huge drop in tourism and a desire to go to school here and live here. This country is so dumbed down and I want the response of other countries to reflect that.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous3:20 PM

      Agreed. Think TIIC care?
      I never thought I would see this.
      I fear for my kids and grandchildren.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous3:34 PM

      Agreed 3:08. I hope there are numerous travel advisories from other countries coming soon.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous5:56 PM

      Hoping for bad things for your country.... Again, could anyone be more arrogantly dumb than democrats?

      Delete
    5. Anonymous7:47 PM

      @5:56 PM But it was just fine with you that the Republican Congress blocked most of Obama's proposals? What is more 'dumb' than the Republican obstruction and their asking for cooperation at this point?

      Delete
    6. Uh... Trump voters? Dunno, just spitballing here...

      Delete
    7. Anonymous11:07 PM

      Well it seems the Trump haters are cutting off their own noses to spite their faces nasty liberal. that is pretty arrogantly dumb.

      Delete
  2. Anonymous2:18 PM

    The race was always about the newbie versus political corruption.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Caroll Thompson3:03 PM

      Please tell me the law that Hillary broke. Quote the US Code. No one has been able to do that. No law broken? No corruption.

      Wait until the age of Trump if you want to see corruption.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous3:09 PM

      No, it wasn't. It was about hate rhetoric, name calling, bullying and pandering to the fears of ignorant whites from the right, versus a stale campaign from the left.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous3:43 PM

      @ 3:06. The "stale" campaign from the left could have been anything but if the media (esp. The Washington Post op eds' dismissal of Bernie's ideas as not being "suitable") and if the DNC had promoted Bernie's campaign that:

      1) had a grassroots monetary support as large in donations as Hillary's, and probably larger when you count what it cost her to get corporate monies;

      2) had no corporate sponsorship, thus dooming it I guess from the start;

      2) had the support of millennials , all 69 million of them possible supporters;

      3) had specific, viable policies laid out to solve the inequality which has made the US an oligarchy, barely a democracy -- and the millennials' anger about this explains their cynicism towards Hillary, who only leaned left because of Bernie

      4) Bernie had gone a long way to getting Democratic Socialism accepted as a viable option to Wall St. owning government;

      5) had passionate rallies of 20,000++ all over the country, which the media ignored month after month; had a dedicated ground volunteer organization'

      6) tapped into the anger on the Left, just as Trump did with the anger on the Right.

      Stale? I think not. If Bernie had been given a chance, a whole generation would not now be even angrier. All those votes not cast...but don't blame them, blame an arrogant DNC for ignoring victory right under their noses.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous4:51 PM

      3:43, I made the stale comment about Clinton. I agree completely with your assessment of Sanders.
      But, Clinton did nothing to excite and motive voters. Many Clinton voters, like me voted against trump, not for Hillary.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous4:53 PM

      Anonymous3:43 PM

      No, I blame them for their spiteful votes.

      Delete
  3. Anonymous2:27 PM

    OT, but a sliver of a bright ray in an otherwise gloomy sky:
    http://www.mediaite.com/online/duck-dynasty-cancelled-after-11-seasons/

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Oh! Those quacks!
      You don't suppose Phil Baby Robertson is headed to Washington? That would just about do it for a clown lineup.
      However,there is still the Alaskan imbecile to trot out.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous3:03 PM

      YAY!!!!!!!

      Oh oh, but that frees up more idiots for Trump's administration.

      Delete
  4. Anonymous2:33 PM

    Gryphen, I voted for Obama twice and last week for Clinton. Of course the FBI letters didn't help her, but we have to move on for crying out loud just like when SCOTUS proclaimed Shrub POTUS. Unless 40 people jump ship in December and vote Clinton, we have 4 years or less of Trump. Nothing can change that.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous2:35 PM

    corrupt and untrustworthy
    Hillary Rotten Clinton
    and a little revenge voting against Mrs NAFTA in the rust belt
    She needs to be locked up

    ReplyDelete
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    1. abbafan3:32 PM

      Forget it stupid; those steel jobs are NEVER coming back! Your "big hero" made fools of you; yet, you're too fuckin' blind to see it!

      Delete
    2. Anonymous3:34 PM

      perverted and dishonest
      Don Pussy Grabber Trump
      He will get locked up.

      just wait

      Delete
    3. Anonymous4:56 PM

      FUCK YOU. It was YOUR boy who instigated NAFTA. All Bill Clinton did was sign it and all Hillary did was voice support for it as FLOTUS. Republicans always blaming others for their stinking shit.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous5:50 PM

      Rust Belt and Flyover Country can just fuck off and die, while the rest of us just sit back and relish your pain :-)

      Delete
    5. Anonymous5:53 PM

      And you wonder why they voted out the dems and their arrogant followers like you 5:50 lol?

      Delete
  6. Anonymous2:51 PM

    The American people may not be smart, but perhaps the electors will be when they vote on Dec 19th: no one seems to think it will happen, but they CAN vote for Hillary. The Constitution says so.

    The petition needs more signatures if it is to be one more reason why Electors might change their minds:

    https://www.change.org/p/electoral-college-electors-electoral-college-make-hillary-clinton-president-on-december-19?utm_medium=email&utm_source=notification&utm_campaign=signature_receipt

    At 4.14M now. Needs to go waaaay higher.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Anonymous5:52 PM

      Think about this for a second. Most electors are party loyalists. Many spent time working on their candidate's campaign. Why in the world would they vote for the opposition?

      Delete
  7. Anonymous2:53 PM

    This election was absolutely rigged, and here's how they stole it. It was stolen long before ANY of us voted. Just read and educate yourself. I'm glad that Gryphen is starting to understand this as well.

    http://field-negro.blogspot.com/2016/11/crosscheck-caging-and-how-gop-stole.html

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/something-stinks-when-exit-polls-and-official-counts-dont-match/

    http://field-negro.blogspot.com/2016/11/crosscheck-caging-and-how-gop-stole.html

    http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/something-stinks-when-exit-polls-and-official-counts-dont-match/

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Anonymous5:55 PM

      Karl Rove felt exactly the same way when Fox News called Ohio for Obama in 2012, but he let it go and moved on with his life.

      Delete
  8. Anonymous2:54 PM

    It turns out that Republicans weren't one hundred percent honest with the voters about ACA repeal. Republicans can pass a bill legislation repealing the law in 2017, but Obamacare will remain, and those who sign up will keep their insurance until at least 2018.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/17/22-million-insurance-2017-gop-lied-obamacare-replacement.html

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous2:55 PM

    Here comes a midterm disaster!

    If Democrats work with Trump, the voters that supported Trump will give him all of the credit, and still vote Republican in November 2018.

    By collaborating with Trump, Senate Democrats will turn their own base against them.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/17/left-senate-democrats-pay-collaborate-donald-trump.html

    Fucking democrats need to get a goddamn spine!

    ReplyDelete
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    1. BINGO!

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/house-democrats-donald-trump_us_582f57a9e4b030997bbf457d?section=us_politics

      "Democratic leaders in Congress said this week that if they can find common ground with President-elect Donald Trump, they’re willing to work with him. But at least a few House Democrats say they won’t work with Trump on anything, or that they’re close to taking that hard-line approach."

      I do NOT like the sounds Ellison is making about possible cooperation.

      Democrats always roll over and play dead. Republicans take credit for anything positive and then blame Democrats for whatever the Republicans are responsible for.

      Kellyanne Conway? That's Republicans in a nutshell. The Democrats will be "Conway-ed" for the next four years.

      We'll be lucky not to LOSE seats in 2018.

      Delete
  10. If you didn't know who you would vote for in the last days preceding the election, I might say that there is a good chance you are a low information voter. Chances are you believed the media and they Trump campaign when they reported endlessly on the two letters the FBI Director should never have sent.

    But at least the undecided voted, ill informed as they may have been. 100 million people did not vote. Had these 100 million bothered to vote, I can guarantee we would be a bluer nation today.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Anonymous5:56 PM

      Exactly!

      Delete
  11. Anonymous3:03 PM

    Caveman Conway's evil. Hope she gets what she deserves. In addition to Comey, there was that ACA increase that the GOP made sure happened. And, of course, many thousands of people couldn't vote because of new ID laws and other issues to help the GOP. There are always votes that have to be tossed, but I'm talking about intentional prevention. Pols in certain states made sure of it, and Wisconsin may have been the worst in terms of the various means used and the email proof that it was a plan. There's no doubt in my mind that even with the Comey thing and others, if the GOP state officials hadn't, anticipating Dem wins, put in place ways to prevent votes in swing states, Hillary would have won.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Anonymous4:28 PM

      http://theproudliberal.org/paul-ryan-admits-gop-purposely-caused-obamacare-failure-helping-trump-get-elected/

      "Speaker Ryan wants billions of dollars for these HIGH RI$K POOL$, yet has been leading the charge in withholding money that could be used on healthcare and choosing instead to spend billions on fighter jets."

      Delete
    2. Anonymous6:01 PM

      The ACA has never worked the way it should that's why many just pay the penalty instead of enrolling.

      Delete
  12. Anonymous3:04 PM

    Trump's new world order

    Russia and China appear emboldened, while Mexico strikes a defensive posture, with two months still left until Trump takes power.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-new-world-order-231513

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Angela Merkel is now the Leader of the Free World.

      http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-branded-new-leader-free-world-trump-brexit-crises-preoccupy-western-powers-a7420281.html

      Congratulations, Republicans.

      Delete
  13. Anonymous3:08 PM

    On Hardball, Chris Matthews just announced that Trump is considering Sarah Palin for Secretary of the Interior????? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha.......gasp.....hahahahahahahahaHHHAAAAAAAHhahahahahahaha

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    1. Anonymous4:51 PM

      Anyone else would not have ranted like she did the other day about oil/energy. They'd have known better and not spewed, first of all, but especially if thinking they were up for a Cabinet or other admin position. She just has no sense of what is appropriate to do. And she has no idea what it means to sound like a statesman.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous5:02 PM

      Matthews is way behind the eight ball in announcing this about Palin today! It's been talked about via the Huffington Post for a week!

      She's a joke and Trump knows it! She'd never pass the Hearing process! Too much of a proven idgit that also has a huge amount of baggage all by herself, but also with ALL of her family members!

      Delete
    3. Anonymous9:02 PM

      Steve chmidt, who just fucking said Drumpf could cuase the end of humanity, or something like that, better better better spill the beans on Palin if she is considered for anything in the cabinet. I swear Steve. You know it all. Spill it.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous11:02 PM

      hahahaa 9:02 you live in a make believe world of Palin fantasy. You have been putting too much time and investment into the Palin hate blogs. Honestly almost no-one else even pays any attention to her.

      Delete
  14. Sharon3:25 PM

    Instead of feeling better everyday it seems I am just getting madder, the 5 stages of grief? Talk about corruption...OMG, this country would have to actually work on being stupid. Trump is most def draining the swamp as he is hiring the worst of them to "advise" him. They will need a new word for GREED as our first family markets all their goods using the WH media and the websites. I can only hope at this point that some medical issues prevent the troll elect from becoming official. Hillary would have walked in day 1 and been ready to go but her e-mail was a deal breaker...in what parallel universe could that be true?
    Hope those Trump voters sleep well at night knowing this disgusting criminal is our face to the world. They will enjoy all the benefits esp coming their way as we plunge into darkness...again. Bush was an idiot, but his reason for living wasn't money and he wasn't mean, just his closest advisors. Now we have a pyramid of greed and evil.

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    1. Anonymous4:43 PM

      I really will not mind at all if he drops dead. It will be the best thing for the country. And the arrogance and entitlement and take-take-take nature of his entire family is sickening. It seems so unfair that so many decent families always have the heaviness of life's difficulties and tragedies to deal with, while his has no idea what suffering is. I hope one day they know.

      Delete
    2. Bush was an idiot but he wasn't intentionally evil.

      Delete
  15. Anonymous3:46 PM

    Well, here is another factor that probably had a lot of impact, especially on those who limit their "learning" to what they read on Facebook.

    Today on the news there were stories of how much of the "news" stories found on Facebook are fake -- many more than are real,as I recall.
    And, the fake stories were mostly either: anti-Hillary OR, pro-Trump. Surprise!!!???

    And, many get most or all of their news there.

    So, those people made up their mind based on phony negative stories about Hillary and phony positive "news" for Trump. What do you want to be they voted for him?

    Now Facebook is saying they are going to try to figure out how to limit fake news. Right! A bit late don't you think?

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Anonymous4:35 PM

      I read about this and saw it talked about on TV. On TV they compared the amount of revenue raised by that guy with his fake news with what was made on actual legit news sites. Not much of a $ difference. His explanation as to why he does it sounds fine and dandy, but the reality is that low-information and low-thinking people believe that stuff, and when it came to the campaign season it very much affected their opinion and who they voted for.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous6:03 PM

      Facebook is part and parcel of the dumbing down of America, all of social media is responsible

      Delete
  16. Anonymous3:56 PM

    The Clinton Campaign Was Undone By Its Own Neglect And A Touch Of Arrogance, Staffers Say

    “It was arrogance, arrogance that they were going to win. That this was all wrapped up,” a senior battleground state operative told The Huffington Post."
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-campaign-neglect_us_582cacb0e4b058ce7aa8b861

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Anonymous4:29 PM

      The arrogance quote in the article the info highlighted here. People who read the article will read about several factors, ones that are not subjective. Hillary had some missteps, yes. That is something everyone realizes. But without all the shenanigans she would have won.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous4:32 PM

      This article mentions what Wisconsin needed. Hillary to visit and the Obamas to go to milwaukee. I said on this blog that Michelle Obama needed to be out campaigning. She had said she'd do everything she could and be out on that trail. But then ten days went by when all the other main surrogates, only one of them of color, were out there rallying and MO was nowhere to be found until the night before the election. I continue to find this peculiar. Call me a troll again, IMers. I don't care.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous4:59 PM

      They knew Hillary was on path to lose 4:32. Internal polling told them everything. That is why Michelle was not out.

      Delete
  17. Anonymous4:21 PM

    http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/17/clintons-popular-vote-lead-inches-1-5-million-closing-obama-2012-total.html

    ReplyDelete
  18. Anonymous5:25 PM

    As ballots from last week’s presidential election continue to be counted, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump just keeps growing. The former Secretary of State now leads the president-elect by an astounding 1.4 million votes.

    According to nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s latest tally, which is continuously being updated, Clinton has so far earned 62,916,638 to Trump’s 61,547,058.

    Clinton’s growing lead over Trump is only giving oxygen to longshot efforts by some Democrats to pressure the electoral college to choose Clinton as the next president when they officially cast their votes on Dec. 19. One petition pressuring the electors has nearly 4.5 million signers.

    Clinton’s unprecedented popular vote lead over Trump is bigger than John Kennedy’s was in 1960 and Richard Nixon’s in 1968, when those two men went on to become president. Trump’s popular vote percentage also falls short of the failed presidential campaigns of Mitt Romney, John Kerry, Al Gore, and Gerald Ford.

    With as many as 4 million votes left to be counted in California and Utah, not only could Clinton’s lead surpass the 2 million mark, but she could also close in on Barack Obama’s 2012 vote total of 65,915,795, which gave the current president an easy victory over Romney and four more years in the White House.

    Not only did millions more Americans choose Clinton to be their next president, but a clear majority of voters cast their ballot for somebody other than Trump. The president-elect’s supporters may claim that last week’s election results translated to a mandate for their candidate’s agenda, but if anyone received a mandate last week, it was Clinton – by a sizable margin that just keeps expanding.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/17/clintons-popular-vote-lead-inches-1-5-million-closing-obama-2012-total.html

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    1. The purpose of the popular vote is not to overturn Trump in the electoral college. That isn't going to happen.

      The purpose is to rub Trump's nose in the fact that he is a LOSER. The only reason he's President is through the technicality of the electoral college system in this country. Anywhere else he'd be the loser.

      And he still is.

      He's won a job he didn't really want. He's finding every day that he is neither prepared nor capable of being the president. He will be under a microscope for four years. He will be ridiculed and criticized daily no matter what he does.

      He will not be able to please people and will never be "popular". He has the lowest approval rating of any president-elect and will probably continue to be the lowest throughout his term, however long that lasts. He'll break historical records not only for the election but for his term in office. He'll break unpopularity records

      Trump's presidency will be the biggest DISASTER this country has ever seen. The only question is will the Democrats be able to stay in power long enough to undo the damage this time.

      (Considering the reaction and leadership of the Democratic Party, I'm going to say no.)

      Delete
  19. Anonymous5:42 PM

    Only half of registered voters exercised their right to vote. Half of those voted for an idiot, so basically 1/4 of registered voters have left the country in the crapper.

    This outcome was a referendum on complacency.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Anonymous3:05 AM

    And you can tell "them" to go F themselves.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Anonymous3:05 AM

    Looking into the eyes of that fat ugly face.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Anonymous3:10 AM

    So sick of the nasty swaying morally ill 24/7 networks infecting our children with unreal garbage. YOU PEOPLE are the problem.

    ReplyDelete

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