Wednesday, December 14, 2016

More concerning the impact of the James Comey letter on the outcome of the election.

Courtesy of Mother Jones:  

Sam Wang has crunched the data from polls released in October to judge the effect of FBI Director James Comey's letter on the election: 

From opinion data alone, it is possible to estimate when a change occurred. This can test between alternative explanations, which include not only the Comey letter (October 28th) but preceding events such as the announcement of a hike in Affordable Care Act premiums (October 24th). 

I calculated a day-by-day margin using polling data from the Huffington Post…After the Affordable Care Act premium hike announcement, opinion did not move for days…However, the big change does coincide well with the release of the Comey letter. Opinion swung toward Trump by 4 percentage points, and about half of this was a lasting change. 

Hillary Clinton lost 4 points when the letter was released. She eventually gained back some of that, but it looks like 2 points were permanent. This jibes well with Nate Silver's estimate that the Comey letter cost Clinton 2 points.

Gee look, that polls WEREN'T wrong after all.

The Right is working hard to spin election loss as being the fault of the Clinton campaign for not working harder to reach the people in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but the facts are that Hillary did reach out to working class people.

However it is hard to win over the American people when the director of the FBI is insinuating that you are about to be indicted on criminal charges at any moment. 

Hillary Clinton did not lose this election, it was stolen from her.


  1. Anonymous6:21 AM


    1. Anonymous7:45 AM

    2. Anonymous7:54 AM

  2. Anonymous6:27 AM

    Why not listen to the actual voters instead of hiding behind charts derived from poll numbers that were clearly wrong? In interviews Michigan and Wisconsin voters who voted for Obama but voted for Trump in 2016 say - most recently at the town hall with Bernie Sanders and Chris Hayes - say things like it was their lost jobs, their lost wages, or they'd have voted for anyone but Hillary Clinton. None of them say their vote was because of the Comey letters. This continual denial of responsibility and failure to take blame for losing is pathetic.

    1. Anonymous6:38 AM

      The denial within Gryphen is strong. He is a pure example of what happens when you live in the echo chamber too long.

      Charts from Mother Jones lol.

      Thank you 6:27.

    2. Anonymous7:23 AM

      6:38 - the problem is idiots like you. Nonsense from 6:38. LOL.

    3. Anonymous7:32 AM

      Clinton lost the Dem primary in 2008 to a relatively unknown black guy with a Muslim name who didn't have a lot of years of public service under his belt.

      She just lost the presidential election to a guy who has NO public service experience, a very suspect personal life and financial skeletons out the ass, and who also has the worst popularity rating of any candidate who ever won the republican primary.

    4. Anonymous7:39 AM

      Look, using any 2016 poll let alone national polls to try to understand this election is silliness. We know they were wrong. Besides that, we don't have a national election, we have 50 state elections + DC. Hillary Clinton didn't win enough of those state elections to win the presidency. The ones she lost by the closest margins were MI, WI, PA and FL. Democratics should be seeking to understand what happened in those states. And based on real interviews with real voters from those states. It wasn't the Comey letter.

    5. Anonymous10:55 AM

      6:27, you are acting as if only Trump voters who voted for certain reasons matter in this whole equation. No. If the Comey letters hadn't happened, there were many other voters who would not have voted for Trump or who would not have skipped checking off pres at the voting booth or who wouldn't have stayed home. Also, a # of the voters who say they wouldn't have voted for Hillary anyway were in fact affected by that Comey stuff--it was what made them finally decide against Hillary.

      As well, you should watch MSNBC/read up online re how the FBI didn't do its job in alerting the Dems about the hacking. Someone from the FBI made a call to a low-tier IT person at the DNC and came across as a prank to someone never expecting such a call. The FBI never followed up and made sure any higher-ups had the info. Wasserman-Schultz should have been called, for sure, and also Hillary and Obama, right then and there. But no. Days and weeks went by and no one from the FBI did their job and followed through with a real warning and attempt to fix things. The IT person at the DNC was an idiot but the real blame has to go with the FBI.

      Bernie at that Chris Hayes thing was fine at times but also sad. He let it be seen yet again how limited his scope of knowledge is and how his ability to hold a useful dialogue on some topics is limited. And he had NO FUCKING IDEA what "PC" means! This is a term he should be very well acquainted with. He messed up so royally and Hayes tried helping him out, but to no avail. He asked the audience what they think of when they hear the term "PC," and the audience got it right. Yesterday on CH's show, he and his guests talked about how shocking Bernie's utter ignorance was on this. CH wasn't trying to diss Bernie, but he had to talk about what had happened.

    6. Anonymous11:14 AM

      10:55 "you should watch MSNBC"

      Hahaa. Yes, if you want to fill your head with false garbage.

  3. Anonymous6:43 AM

    The Boys from Brazil {ALL}

    1. Anonymous7:06 AM

      " “I dealt with Gaddafi. I rented him a piece of land. He paid me more for one night than the land was worth for two years, and then I didn’t let him use the land. That’s what we should be doing. I don’t want to use the word “screwed,” but I screwed him. That’s what we should be doing.”

  4. Anonymous7:11 AM

    No one is denying responsibility and failure. The information dug up on voting irregularities in the recounts in MI and FL alone validate the election was stolen. Coupled with the Comey letter and said timing, the dumber than a box of rocks people interviewed in Chris Hayes town hall could not actually articulate ANY reason for not voting for Hillary. The sad fact is that those same dumbasses will not thrive under big oil and military incisions by Doctor Don.

    The point remains that Hillary won the popular vote. The failure is that the electoral college has served no purpose ever except in the beginning for slave owners.
    Can you tell me why a vote in Wyoming counts 3 times as much as a vote in CA?
    Didn't think so.
    The gloating and big me, little you of the deplorables is ... deplorable.

  5. Anonymous7:20 AM

    "No one is denying responsibility and failure. "
    Can't you read? "Hillary Clinton did not lose this election, it was stolen from her" means exactly denying responsibility.

    1. Anonymous9:02 AM

      I not only can read, I can comprehend.
      False equivalency, cowboy.

  6. Anonymous7:36 AM

    "Can you tell me why a vote in Wyoming counts 3 times as much as a vote in CA?"

    Well it doesn't if you do the arithmetic properly That was a fake claim that depended on people's failure to understand how electors are allocated and game-playing with the arithmetic. And you fell for it.

    Wyoming like a number of other states has the minimum number of electors: 3. That number is based on having 2 senators and only 1 representative. Every state has 2 senators. The minimum representatives is 1. If you want to make an apples to apples comparison of electoral representation by population, you have to subtract the 2 electors for each state that represent the 2 senators that every state gets and leave only the electors that represent the House - allocated based on population.

    CA has 55 - 2 = 53 electors based on population. WY has 1. CA's population in 2010, which is where the allocation of congress was derived, was 37.5 million. WY's was 564,460. CA has 1 elector for 707,547 people. WY has 1 for 564,460. 707,547/564,460 = 1.25. Do you think Wyoming should have no representatives in the House? Or less than 2 senators in a body which was designed to make the states equal?

    This is a perfect example of con men anticipating you're going to take what you read is the truth instead of using your brain. You're also making the basic argument for the electoral college. If our elections were based only on the popular vote or on an allocation of electors based only on population, our elections would be decided by the 12 most populous cities. The electoral college, and the US Senate for that matter, level the playing field for the rural, less populous states.

    1. Anonymous8:25 AM

      This is bogus. You have to look at the total number of electors per state, that means 55 for CA and 3 for WY. That much works out to 37,500,000/55=681,819 for CA and 564,500/3=188,167 for WY. So yes a vote in WY is worth three times a vote in CA.

    2. Anonymous9:11 AM

      Thank you 8:25 for your correct reinforcement.
      To paraphrase Keith Obermann, "You are an idiot!"

    3. Anonymous10:10 AM

      Wrongo. 8:25 and 9:11. Believe the funny math if it makes you feel better, but it's bogus. If you want to accurately compare electoral representation by population, you have to take out the 2 that are based on the 2 senators that every state has regardless of population. What's horribly unfair is the morons like you taking this funny math and trying to make the argument that WY and the 6 other states that have the minimum representation both in the federal govt and in the electoral college have too much say. Pure uninformed nonsense.

    4. Anonymous10:16 AM

      For you math geniuses, the whole point of the Senate and the method of allocating electors Electoral College was to level the playing field for the less populous states.

    5. There's lies, damned lies and there's statistics.

      There are all sorts of ways to lie with math and it all looks true.

  7. Anonymous7:48 AM

    I'm looking forward to the gloating from the right turning to apoplexy. They are going to be so bewildered and miserable as they endlessly wait for these plutocrats to improve their lives. Clueless ignorant peawits.

    1. It won't take long. I'd say within three months of the inauguration. Some are starting to pay attention now and are starting to worry but it hasn't hit home exactly how fucked they are yet. They voted for Trump and think he'll just magic their lives for the better. They haven't paid attention to the alligators he's draining into his cabinet or their policies and how that will effect them.

      Just be ready with a big fat grin and a loud, raucous TOLD YOU SO! Feel free to add the qualifier of your choice: doofus, fucktard, shit for brains, Deplorable.

  8. Chenagrrl7:55 AM

    Nixon's dirty tricks has nothing on this crew. As a good friend says, "There's a drunk at the wheel."

  9. Anonymous7:57 AM


  10. Anonymous8:07 AM

    We should remember that Comey said Hillary DID do wrong. but he refused to file charges against her.

    1. Anonymous9:12 AM

      100% factual quoted proof.
      Or manufacture some like the repubs do pizza stories.

    2. We should remember that Comey is a seditious ass who hasn't paid for undermining the presidential election.

  11. Anonymous8:41 AM

    Gryph there was something on TV that President Obama will preserve Senate Torture report in his presidential library so it will be safe. There was something about some Republicans want it destroyed. Some people want it released because Trump during his campaign said he will do waterboarding and maybe worse.

    I do not know what this means

    1. It means Obama is archiving all that his administration accomplished as evidence against Republicans trying to take credit, blame or outright LIE about what he accomplished, what they didn't and how they will have destroyed the nation he handed over to their puppet doofus.

  12. Anonymous8:46 AM

    Does this mean they're now buddies?

    President-elect Donald Trump holds up a Green Bay Packers jersey presented to him by Speaker Paul Ryan at the Wisconsin State Fair Exposition Center in West Allis, Wisconsin, on 13 December 2016

    1. Trump has to suck up to Ryan. Ryan is speaker of the house and the house decides whether to impeach a president or not. They control the investigations.

  13. Anonymous8:48 AM

    Trump in Wisconsin Calls Paul Ryan 'Like a Fine Wine' — as Speaker Gets Boos

    1. Anonymous11:15 AM

      And of course we are supposed to think Trump doesn't drink. I swear he was under the influence of alcohol or something at a rally last week. He was more than two hours late and he was garbling things at times and letting last words of sentences just drop. It was weirder than usual with him.

  14. Anonymous8:56 AM

    Could the GSA person be a Republican siding with Trump? I don't trust government people who go against policies. Who know maybe he's right?

    CNBC- Democrats hit Trump on DC hotel lease, but federal agency pushes back on their claims

  15. Anonymous9:17 AM

    Is Trump and his Transition Team setting up Trump's administration to get rid of the government's involvement in climate change?

    If so, what is this about with Bill Gates in the posts below?

    I think Gates instead of critiquing Trump and being his enemy is slowly stroking Trump's ego to get him to see that there is a global problem. Prepare to see Trump change his mind on climate control. They say the last person who talks to Trump changes his mind.

    Bill Gates Thinks Donald Trump Could Be Like JFK
    Fortune - 4 hours ago

    Seattle Times:
    Bill Gates chats with Donald Trump for first time, remains hopeful on climate goals

    Bill Gates just launched a $1 billion investment fund dedicated to clean-energy miracles that could slow global climate change.

    The administration of President-elect Donald Trump, meanwhile, will be led by a man who has doubts that humans contribute to the warming climate in the first place.

    The two men spoke on the phone briefly a couple of weeks ago, the latest unlikely pairing in the month since Trump’s election.

  16. Anonymous12:00 PM

    " Also, a # of the voters who say they wouldn't have voted for Hillary anyway were in fact affected by that Comey stuff--it was what made them finally decide against Hillary."

    I challenge you to point us to just one interview or article in which a voter is on video or quoted as saying they voted for Trump because of the Comey letter.

  17. Anonymous3:21 PM

    It was rigged.. Trump said so...... Lock him up.. Lock him up.... Lock him up...Putin looks like a little penis.. his face is so puffy..
    If you suck trumps dick that's what happens to you.

  18. It was a progression of things.

    Why was she even within 4 points of Trump?

    She had a substantial lead.

    It was a series of thing and the Comey letter was simply the last straw.

    BUT it was a substantial straw and it was the straw that permanently turned the election.

    For that Comey should be indicted, prosecuted and possibly incarcerated. He should be fired no matter what.


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