Thursday, January 05, 2017

Autonomous commercial big rigs means the loss of jobs for 1.7 million truck drivers.

Courtesy of DC Velocity:

The proliferation of self-driving, or autonomous, tractor-trailers threaten the jobs of nearly 1.7 million commercial truck drivers, according to a study published late last month by the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). 

The study, released Dec. 20, said the jobs of between 1.34 million and 1.67 million truck drivers would be at risk due to the growing utilization of heavy-duty vehicles operated via artificial intelligence. That would equal 80 to 100 percent of all driver jobs listed in the CEA report, which is based on May 2015 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a unit of the Department of Labor. There are about 3.4 million commercial truck drivers currently operating in the U.S., according to various estimates. 

The report also predicted that between 165,300 and 495,900 jobs held by light truck or delivery service drivers would be at risk because of autonomous vehicles. That represents between 20 and 60 percent of the CEA's universe of 825,000 driver jobs. Fewer of those drivers are likely to be displaced, because they operate in more densely populated urban areas where the risk of pedestrian deaths or injuries would be greater if autonomous vehicles were used. In addition, many delivery drivers operate over short distances, so labor costs would be less of a factor. 

CEA estimated that, on a net basis, the use of autonomous vehicles enabled by artificial intelligence would threaten between 2.2 million and 3.1 million full- and part-time driver jobs of all types; the figure includes approximately 364,000 self-employed individuals driving with ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft.

Once again, whether we like it or not, this IS our future. 

This article really caught my attention because I had a guy about 23 years old asking if I thought becoming a trucker was a good career move, and I told him bluntly that I don't think the job will exist in the next twenty years. 

This article essentially supports that conclusion.

And this is just one example of how automation is going to reduce the need for human workers in the very near future.

Donald Trump can talk about bringing jobs back until he is orange in the face (Oops, too late!) but the simple fact is that with these new advancements in computer technology and automation, there are going to be fewer and fewer jobs available for carbon based life forms.

There is already talk about creating a minimum income, or mincome, for non-working people so that they can live in relative comfort while machines do the heavy lifting.

Personally I am somewhat confident that my job will not be taken over by automation until well after I am too old to adequately perform my duties anyhow.

 As for the rest of humanity, well I would suggest that learning to program computers and repair circuit boards might be a good place to start. Though I think we know it is only a matter of time before machines will evolve to take those tasks over as well.

37 comments:

  1. Anonymous6:24 AM

    How is babysitting a group of first graders going to be taken over by automation?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's not my job stupid.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous6:44 AM

      Wow, anon6:24's drinking some bitter coffee this mornin'.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous6:51 AM

      I figure the palins are still hating that uncle G knows plenty more about special needs kids' therapy than they do, and that stings the troll. Hence the little jab from 6:24.
      Uncle G knows that Trig's development was sorely neglected by sarah and the little boy has lost out on some milestones he should have been given the opportunity to reach, especially by such a 'wealthy' family who also receives state aid for Trig.
      That's where that negativity originates.

      Caring for people, no matter what the actual job is, will be the last vestige of human employment. How can we automate that? Caring for special needs kids is one of the most demanding jobs there is, especially if you're good at it.

      Delete
    4. Anonymous7:58 AM

      ^6:51 still stuck on Palin 24/7. Everything relates back to Palin does it amigo? lol.

      Delete
    5. Anonymous10:56 AM

      Oohhhh, poor Alicia, she doesn't realize that under tRump her life will become much more difficult. I suspect over half the services Alicia gets from the government will no longer be funded. Plus at some date, even her parents are going to say that enough is enough.

      Delete
    6. Anonymous8:24 PM

      Gryphen is close mouthed about his job for "safety reasons" even though I'd bet a year"s salary that the Palins know exactly where and when he works. Which makes me question whether he has an actual job aside from this blog and solicitation of donations.

      Delete
  2. Anonymous6:47 AM

    OT, but have to say that OF COURSE Fox isn't showing the Senate's hearings with the intel leaders. CNN and MSNBC are. Fox is talking about the ACA and interviewing people like ditzy Marsha Blackburn.

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    Replies
    1. Anonymous7:28 AM

      After one-and-a-half hours (at least--I'm not of the exact start time) Fox finally started showing the hearings. This was after they first had two guys on to suggest that Romania and the Ukraine could have done the hacking, not nearby Russia.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous8:16 AM

      Yes, I checked and fox was not showing it.....they focused on some other story. Why? Because they dished out the fake fox nation agenda. Way to go Republicans!! way to go. Of course trump and friends rigged the election and seats in congress. NEW ELECTION. President Obama must stay until NEW ELECTION.

      Delete
    3. Anonymous8:18 AM

      where is the senior twit? The world is awaiting his tweet regarding his rigged election?

      Delete
    4. Anonymous8:21 AM

      Courier mail to trump tower is booming.

      Delete
  3. Anonymous6:48 AM

    People can be such assholes! And, I mean you - 6:24 AM! Go to some other blog!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous6:59 AM

    This should help in DUI's. All the Stupid's drunk on vodka attempting shitaltzitki. The Hearings are fantastic, don't ya think?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous7:31 AM

    Time for a Universal Basic Income...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous9:08 AM

      Agree. Totally. But it will never happen, just like most improvements to aid the poor won't happen under the GOP. Because a high percent of the poor are people of color, and the 1% don't want money redistributed to them. They hate them with the same fervor they hated our President Obama. I would never have believed it 8 yrs ago, but now . . .

      With the attempt to scuttle the ACA: I see it as an attempt to let our poor die off. How else to explain it. Make America white again. Germany 1939 all over again.

      Delete
  6. Anonymous7:33 AM

    I'm thinking about all the pros to these trucks, but the thought of a semi, let alone a regular car, going haywire and an accident occurring just scares the hell out of me.

    I assume that by delivery drivers the article is referring to trucks just delivering, going to, company facilities and that people at homes won't have driverless trucks just stopping outside so that people will go out to collect their boxes from some kind of computerized release. Unless we're going to start seeing robots in UPS brown?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Our Lad7:45 AM

    Not to worry, Mr. Trump will never let that happen. He's a friend to the working man, he has displayed this alliance all of his life. He will usher in a new world of peace, prosperity and fair play! Unless of course, he winds up in the joint.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous7:53 AM

    At Least 50 Trump Electors Were Illegitimately Seated as Electoral College Members

    More evidence surfaces as calls mount to challenge congressional ratification of Electoral College vote.

    More than 50 Electoral College members who voted for Donald Trump were ineligible to serve as presidential electors because they did not live in the congressional districts they represented or held elective office in states legally barring dual officeholders.

    That stunning finding is among the conclusions of an extensive 1,000-plus page legal briefing prepared by a bipartisan nationwide legal team for members of Congress who are being urged to object to certifying the 2016 Electoral College results on Friday.

    “Trump’s ascension to the presidency is completely illegitimate,” said Ryan Clayton of Americans Take Action, who is promoting the effort. “It’s not just Russians hacking our democracy. It’s not just voter suppression at unprecedented levels. It is also [that] there are Republicans illegally casting ballots in the Electoral College, and in a sufficient number that the results of the Electoral College proceedings are illegitimate as well.”

    http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/least-50-trump-electors-were-illegitimately-seated-electoral-college-members

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous7:57 AM

    ‘The View’ erupts when Whoopi refuses to let co-host blast Hollywood for left-wing version of ‘McCarthyism’

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/the-view-erupts-when-whoopi-refuses-to-let-co-host-blast-hollywood-for-left-wing-version-of-mccarthyism/

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/the-view-erupts-when-whoopi-refuses-to-let-co-host-blast-hollywood-for-left-wing-version-of-mccarthyism/

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous8:04 AM

    There will be some advancements and uses. Certainly those pushing the technology will keep pushing. But the trucking industry is not going to replace all, most, are even any more than a tiny fraction of truckers in the next 20, 40, 60 years with automation. It isn't where you think it is. And certain infrastructures most definitely aren't

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anonymous8:07 AM

    REALLY?
    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/trump-voters-dont-think-smart-businessman-like-trump-will-really-enact-gops-health-care-plans/

    THEN G? YOU WILL LOVE THIS>
    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/01/inside-donald-trumps-extremist-education-agenda/

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous8:11 AM

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-tweets-hes-a-big-fan-of-intelligence-as-congress-begins-russia-hacking-probe_us_586e5951e4b0c8575a775957

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anonymous8:15 AM

    I hate to see decent paying, middle-class jobs disappear, but we can manage it IF we plan for it. However, we all know that republicans hate planning for the future, and they have no concern about middle-class Americans. Therefore, I suspect that this transition to driverless vehicles will not go well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:53 AM

      Most truck drivers no longer earn a good middle class wage. Most are now poorly paid and barely getting by.

      Delete
  14. Anonymous8:26 AM

    Relax. Probably wont be in full force until we are all beyond the reef. But, As I day dream of the cartoon "The Jetsons" I think of maybe a time when having a tad too much bubbly ....the driverless cab picks me up.....and ......and .....takes me home save.

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  15. Laid off truck drivers can move to WV and mine coal. Big Daddy Trump said so.

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  16. Anonymous8:40 AM

    For those of you doubters, they are already testing these driverless semi's on one particular highway in Ohio right now. No wrecks yet.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Anonymous9:12 AM

    OT?
    https://thinkprogress.org/house-officially-says-parks-have-no-value-3e5c588867fd#.j3lcw0yvm

    ReplyDelete
  18. Anonymous9:13 AM

    If it results in trucks driving within the speed limit, staying in one lane and no tailgating, I am all for it.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Anonymous9:49 AM

    It is an interesting question. The discussion of having a guaranteed basic income for all Americans goes back at least until the 1920s. Even then people were losing jobs to machines and some envisioned a future of little work. That, of course, would only work if a "big government" oversaw the economy and came up with ways to keep people out of poverty. We know how that would go with the Republicans in charge. I don't know what to tell your young friend. You might say go into computers, but even coding is getting automated.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Chenagrrl10:09 AM

    Well I'll be doggone, if this isn't the start of open season for truck rustlin', I don't know what is.

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  21. Anonymous12:48 PM

    Won't someone think of the truck stop hookers and what this will do to them?

    ReplyDelete
  22. More wet dreams for the Rethuglicans.

    Now their driverless trucks can run 24 hours a day, unlike humans who by law must stop and sleep and are limited to how many hours they can drive. Of course, they do violate those regulations in order to make money.

    This will eliminate the speeding and driving while tired. But when a driverless semi hits some black ice and skids into a row of cars, who do you sue? The truck owner? The truck manufacturer?

    Not to worry. I'm sure the BananaRepublicans will pass a law saying you don't have a right to sue a driverless truck. They may simplify things with you can't sue anyone any more.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Anonymous3:19 PM

    Well, I sure hope these auto trucks obey the speed limits. Some truck drivers are out and out irresponsible.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Paul in Minnesota3:59 PM

      It'll be great when it's all automated. Then I won't have to worry about some other (any kind of) vehicle driver wanting to go 90 in a 65 or 80 in a 55, etc. When it's snowing or on icy roads. Or pass me on the right, when I'm waiting legally in a single lane road and going forward at a red stop light and they're in a parking lane or a turn right lane, waiting to gun it so they can pass me on the right. Maybe later, some drivers can nap their way home. I'll just watch the scenery. I don't know what the adrenaline junkies will do; maybe they'll become some other kind of addicts in their self drive cars?

      Delete
  24. Kelly4:49 PM

    According to my trucker husband, it's the assholes in cars always cutting in front of him, and numerous other stupid maneuvers that's the problem. No offense to anyone; if idiots of all persuasions paid attention on the road, we'd all be better off!

    ReplyDelete

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