New poll numbers show good news for Alaskan Democrats.

Courtesy of Ivan Moore's Facebook page:  

600 sample of registered voters, fielded Friday 24th - Sunday 26th. MOE +/- 4%. 

There are two likely voter subgroups for this survey, one fairly loose (544 sample), and one tighter (330 sample). I'm giving results for both screens for transparency. Suffice to say, the 544 sample suggests a 90% turnout, which is highly unlikely, even this year... while the 330 suggests a 55% turnout, which is historically very close to reality. Also the age distribution of the 330 sample is exactly what you would see if you combined Alaska census data for age with average turnouts by age group. In other words, the 544 gives us good sample size in our view of the electorate, the 330 is the closer modeling of turnout on election day: 
 

Senator Mark Begich

US SENATE: 

544 sample: Begich (D) 48.3% Sullivan (R) 41.6% Other 6.5% Undecided 3.6% 

330 sample: Begich (D) 50.1% Sullivan (R) 42.2% Other 5.3% Undecided 2.4% 
 

Forrest Dunbar

US CONGRESS: 

544 sample: Dunbar (D) 42.6% Young (R) 44.4% McDermott (L) 9.5% Undecided 3.5% 

330 sample: Dunbar (D) 46.1% Young (R) 40.6% McDermott (L) 9.6% Undecided 3.7% 

Not much of a difference in the Senate race between the two screens... Begich has a 6.7% lead in one, 7.9% in the other. 

The Congress race is interesting... Young up by 1.8% when you look at the wider population, but zero in on the people who are the highest probability to turn out and Dunbar has a lead of 5.5%. 

That's what happens when you really tick people off two weeks before an election.

I had been avoiding pollsters lately so I was not part of this one, however yesterday I did participate in two back to back polls, and one was for Moore, so I imagine that the next poll will include my input.

I have to say that if these polls are accurate it indicates some very good news for Alaskans.

It would be very unusual for Dan Sullivan to win against a lifelong Alaskan, as regardless of politics we tend to protect our own. Begich may not vote the way that many Alaskans want him to in Washington, but he is still one of us.

As for Don Young, well one of us or not, he is becoming too much of an embarrassment for Alaskans to tolerate any longer.

Quite literally every time I hear his name come up it is right before somebody expresses anger and frustration at having him represent us in D.C..

I really think that Don Young may finally have pissed off too many people to wind the election. 

About damn time!

Alaska's lone Congressman Don Young is still just bullying his way through life.

So as I mentioned before there was a fisheries debate in Kodiak on Wednesday night. 

Not only were the Senate candidates there, but so were the candidates running for Congress, including Alaskan fossil Don Young and Democratic challenger Forrest Dunbar.

And it was during this debate that this happened:  

Forrest Dunbar alluded to that backstage moment in an onstage remark: “Immaturity was the thing you said behind the curtain there, Congressman Young.” 

“Tell me what I said,” challenged Young, 81. 

“Very nice,” replied Dunbar, 30, before turning the discussion back to the issues. So what happened before the debate? 

Dunbar, reached Friday and pressed about the encounter, said the two were walking near each other backstage when Young said angrily, “You're not from Cordova any more than I’m from Fort Yukon. I had you looked into.” 

Dunbar, raised in that Southcentral Alaska town after his family moved there from Eagle in the Interior when he was a child, said he tried politely responding to Young. Young grew up in California and moved to Alaska as a young man, not long after serving in the U.S. Army in the mid-1950s. 

Dunbar said he was puzzled and in a friendly gesture touched Young on his arm lightly and asked: “What are you talking about?” Then: 

“He freaked out,” said Dunbar. “There is no other way to describe it. 

“He kind of snarled at me and said, ‘Don’t you ever touch me. Don’t ever touch me. The last guy who touched me ended up on the ground dead,’” said Dunbar. 

Before walking away from the congressman, Dunbar said he waved his hand in a dismissive gesture, saying, “Whatever, man.” 

Young replied, according to Dunbar, with a taunting, swishing motion of his own hand: “Oh, you got a sweet swing. You got a sweet swing.”

Now apparently part of this encounter was witnessed by a third party, but seriously is there really any doubt that Young would make comments such as these?

After all it was only two months ago that we saw this exchange happen.

And let's not forget that back in 2007 when the Congressman said this to a fellow House member: 

"If we continue this we'll be called biting one another, very much like the mink in my state that kill their own," Young said. "There is always another day when those who bite will be killed, too. And I'm very good at that." 

Don Young is a blowhard and a bully and it is well past time that his bovine ass be put out to pasture.

I recently watched a local show on politics and found myself really quite impressed with Forrest Dunbar. I really cannot say that he has much of a chance against Young, especially since polling shows him trailing by 15%, but in my estimation he would make quite an impressive representative for my state.

And after all who could really be worse than freaking Don Young?