Sunday, October 29, 2006

Here is the reason why Prime Minister Maliki is not America's "man in Iraq".

Juan Cole: Maliki is protecting himself by being feisty, showing Iraqis that he is not taking orders from Washington. But he also has a serious policy dispute with the U.S., and a sense of betrayal. They promised him, last summer when they launched the major security offensive to retake Baghdad, that the U.S. would take care of Sunni guerrilla movement in Baghdad before moving against Mahdi Army [the Shi'ite militia of Moqtada al-Sadr, whose stronghold is in Baghdad]. That way, Maliki could to go to the Shi'ite elders in Baghdad and say, you are safe, you no longer need militias and they are a source of discord, so they must be disbanded. But the Americans failed to dislodge the Sunni insurgents, and then they go after the Mahdi army anyway — and that enrages Maliki because it weakens his government in such a way that it could fall.

So Maliki's outrage over attacks on the Mahdi Army are not a matter of principle; it's about the fact that the U.S. hasn't first done what it said it would do, which was to eliminate the threat of the Sunni insurgents in Baghdad. The reason Shi'ite communities believe they need militias is to protect them from the Sunni guerrillas, which they say the government and the U.S. are not doing. And Maliki can't go and tell them to get rid of their militias while they remain vulnerable to attack by Sunni guerrillas.

These broken promises from the Bush administratino place Maliki in a great deal of danger. Does anybody have any doubt that Maliki's life will not be worth a damn once the American troops leave the area? He has to get some "street cred" with the Iraqi people by showing himself to be independant of the United States because he cannot help but see the writing on the wall and know that the Americans are getting ready to pack their bags and go.

The American people are fed up and do not want to lose any more of their loved over in Iraq. Which means that Maliki has to quickly garner support from a large segment of the Iraqi population or else he better get in line behind the departing troops and make sure he gets a flight out before the shit storm that follows.

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous5:55 PM

    Got to get a Democratic congress to have any chance at alter our policy. And you have to get out and do something to help make that happen.
    http://www.domorethanvote.org/

    ReplyDelete

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